How Lula Wants to End Bolsonaro’s Brazil? 

Just a small correction: the help given by the government during the pandemic was R$ 600 (six hundred reais), not US$ 600 (six hundred dollars), as said in the video. That's a great difference because 1 USD = about R$ 5,40 now

Correction: auxílio Brasil increased from 400 to 600 reais, not dollars.

High commodity prices won’t save brazil this time

But that wasn't Bolsonaro. Congress pushed for R $600. Actually Bolsonaro said only R$200

Correction: Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC, not FEC)

Interesting analysis! Love the Brazil content as it's a massive country with massive geopolitical potential

This is probably the most unbiased non-Portuguese piece on the current Brazilian politics scenario I've seen. Congratulations!

I've always been kind of suspicious of the analyzes on this channel. Seeing how you praised Paulo Guedes, it can be concluded with certainty that this channel is just stupid in its analyzes focused on romantic neoliberal concepts. Also, calling Bolsonaro controversial and not fascist is absurd.

Love Brazilian people From Mozambique

You have conveniently left out the other victory speech where he said that “there’s no space for the right here” after labeling his entire opposition as sexists, fascists and racists.

Good and balanced analysis of the economic policies of Bolsonaro and Lula. Most content on Brazilian politics in the West has focused on the culture war and political aspects of Brazilian politics.

Wow finally a video on Brazil! You guys sure do love talking about Argentina....

The video is nice, however there are a few things incorrect such as the use of dollar instead of reais, and incorrect pronunciation of names. Also I don’t understand why most of the video is showing images of Brazil back in the 90 lol

Didn't do a good homework, many of things are very misleading throughout the video. The employment rates didn't reduce properly, they basically changed the definitions of what employment is. Now even if you only work a day per month or sells cupcakes in the sidewalk you are considered to be employed. The auxilio brasil was not from Bolsonaro, it was made by the opposition in congress, Bolsonaro tried to stop it. It was Bolsonaro himself who claimed, on video, to want to be a cannibal. Lula's sentence was not annulled because it was outside of the judge jurisdiction, it was because there was no actual evidence against him and the Judge was working with the prosecutor to arrest Lula just before the 2018 elections. The judge even became one of bolsonaro's ministers in a complete show of conflicting interests. The privatization of electricity distribution was a disaster, with some states in BR, like in Amapa 2020, being without power for weeks. The idea that GWEDES is a super-minister is an example of propaganda that was taken as fact, he is not the first minister to have a phd, and the rest of his CV is a disaster, including fraud convictions. And please, how about everyone stop making plots whose Y axis doesn't start on 0 to make the curves look more steep than in reality?

Well, I become surprised when you say that the first years of the economy conduction from Paulo Guedes before Pandemic was a good period, because as a Brazilian on this period everything get more expensive: food, oil, electricity.

As a Brazilian i did like that video a lot, thanks for posting it. As far as the content i'd like to point few things: #1The central government annual budget in 2022 represents a number around 50% of the GDP of 2021. (you guys got it right) #2 we do not spend 80% of our budget on salaries and pensions. (you guys got it partially right, Brazil budget is freaking confusing althougt i had 10 years of experience working on that area i still get confused sometimes). To clarify, the biggest spenditure in brazil today is the public debt amortization which took about 50% of 2022's budget. Pensions yes are god damn high but its due to the nature of our welfare roughtly it took about 18% of the 2022 budget, if you disconsider the public debt it would be yes the biggest spenditure around 37% of the budget, but IMO, far from 80%. On the other hand, the spenditure with salaries took 7,43% of the public budget. #3 The Legal technicality that set Lula free is very arguable, i mean it could had been the reason that he was jailed in first time, so its kinda wrong infer that he was actually guilty of anything (although at personal level i don't actually doubt). #4 Yep, Bolsonaro government was a disaster but mainly because he filled the positions with freaking morons just because they came from a military background. Personally i've had more than one time to teach government officials basic math to prove a point while pledging funds to my state at the ministeries. I wonder how these people would react if they had to calculate on the battlefield the artilerry shels path before bombing an enemy postition. LOL. I do believe our differences must have something to do with IMF metodology but still i'd like to point that hehe. Anyway, if you guys are interested in Brazil pollitics and open data (i run a website that posts about pollitics looking at the public data avaiable to try to explain whats going on.) i put myself avaiable for contact, questions collaborations etc via my DM. (@debem666 on Twitter ) Best regards and thanks for the video :D

Lula had his Lava Jato accusations dropped because the then-judge Mr. Moro was found coordinating with prosecutors on how to convict him. Meaning the judge already had a sentence, only missing the substance needed for conviction.

Please do your homework about the state of human rights and democracy in Brazil before judging the demonstrations that had been taken place here. There are journalists, citizens and even congressmen stripped of their social media and even jailed because “crimes” of expressing their opinions. The constitutional court (following what happened in Venezuela) is leading Brazil to very dark path, and perhaps one (again like Venezuela) without return.

One important thing to note about Brazil's unemployment figures: IBGE changed their methodology to calculate unemployment just recently. You can't really do an apples to apples comparison like that.

That is a great video, however, there are many points that you maybe should review it: 1) About the 4 years of Bolsonaro’s Government, there was an amazing cut on many social and environmental areas, some of those cuts stopped the flow of international supportive money into the country, the most notorious being the Amazonia founding; 2) A lol of the money destined to country management went, under Bolsonaro, to approval schemes to allow his government. The scheme was voted recently by the Brazilian Supreme Court illegal and the expectation is that those governmental moves will not be allowed during Lula’s New Term; 3) The ETs request from Bolsonaro supporters actually happened and in some of the videos they are using their phones for such a step. So it was not a media game, but rather a true approach that just increased the ridicule added by the request for a military coup (with them camping in front of military bases) and the non-existent Communist threat they claim it was a constant around Lula, when so many parties from left and right joined forces to support Lula’s elections. By the way, all those e topics happened AFTER the election. 4) Brazilian economy might have increased a bit, but unfortunately in a very messy and unsustainable way. The actual support created for Bolsonaro’s re-election, created a debt of such a proportion, there was no money to pay anyone by year end. The new elected Government was the one actually already working to make that happened, since Bolsonaro completely withdrawn from government since the election; 5) Unfortunately not all about a country is its economy. And even though Bolsonaro and Paulo Guedes failed horribly during their 4 years tenure, the real impact from that Government is on the social side of the country: Poverty increased immensely since Bolsonaro went to power, mishandled of the pandemic and issues with a vaccination program, return of eradicated diseases since the Health Ministry had one of the worst run in decades. No vaccination programs, no prevention programs. So no, we do not really think Bolsonaro should get back to a second term, and honestly, we hope he never come back to politics in the country, as he runaway yesterday, scared of the many crimes he committed during his term and that will be persecuted.

Your GDP growth numbers are highly deceiving as they come after a massive GDP plunge. 10% growth after a 10% drop is not a zero sum.

Lula's sentence wasn't just annulled because of a ''technically'', the judge who enacted the decision was considered impartial by the supreme court. And to the surprise of no one the same judge, Sergio Moro, is now a Senator campaining agains't Lula and the workers party. The sentence was political from her inception and offered no proof of any wrong doings on Lula's part. I expected better from this channel.

Bolsonaro, Lula,..... what's the difference? Brazil, like nearly all of Latin America, is a slow moving train wreck on auto-replay. Wild swings right followed by wild swings left but the results never change.

Industry has not gone so down like you posted, it's still around 25%

Lula was released because the judge in charge of his case was highly biased and playing along with the promoter. Thar same judge later became Bolsonaro's Justice Minister expecting a spot in the Supreme Court that was ultimately denied as he considered going after the Family Bolsonaro for multiple crimes. The shallow exposition of this video is very troublesome.

Poor Brazil, not sure what it was, is nor want to be. As a former British Ambassador said of it, 'Brazil is what the US would have been if the South had won the American Civil War.' I love it as I have brothers and sisters there, but Brazil ain't ever gonna a make it, trust me.Much love tho and all the very best.

Suggestion for Visual politiks - make a video about the Brazilian Federal Supreme Court. That will be fun. Hire me for fact checking before releasing it 🤣

Main mistake from Bolsonaro: his mouth

What Brazil and most of the world for that matter need is a government that's going to put the people ahead of big business and kickbacks

Let's not forget that Lula's campaign adds always featured "plead innocent by the supreme court", which is a lie. Meanwhile the court's also forbade anyone to call Lula a former inmate, which is a fact. Courts were really biased on what was or not allowed this election.

Brazil is pedalling backwards

Congratulations on the great explanation of Brazil’s political situation. We are currently very divided between two populist figures who are not at all concerned with what is best for the country. I’m afraid we’re heading the same direction as our argentine neighbors in the south.

I hope those people won't regret, when Brazil become Venezuela

If one is released from prison and wins the President's seat and losing both houses it sounds very shady

As a Brazilian who has lived under Bolsonaro's government, I am almost outraged by your view in this video. I understand that you are liberal-oriented on economic grounds, but to find Paulo Guedes's programs positive for my country, you need to be a little cynical. Bolsonaro will pass in history as the worse president we have had; an antidemocratic man, homophobic, misogynistic, racist and evil person. His government was four years of a nightmare...

When I visited Brazil in 2020 I went to see some culture, I saw some great tourism I saw environment at the forefront it's hard to not be taken in by how many trees are in Brazil. I have a husband that is Pakistani and I have been there before in 2016. They both have very large populations. Brazil is a great partner as they have a large commodities market

Oh, man. So much misinformation in this video.

so he basically wants to worsen the situation by spending even more more and cause even more inflation.I guess he wants to repeat his last performance with the balance sheets of petrobras.

Best foreginer video about Brazil that i saw. Its allways a "Save the Amazon from this fascist"

So, 50.7% for Lula means a deeply "divided" country, but 51.9% for Brexit was a resounding endorsement by the people! 😂

I don't know from where you live, but here in Brazil fiscal reform is read as "tax increase".

"Haddad is a choice from the MODERATE left" Are you SURE?! He was literally the worst mayor from São Paulo's history, not to mention that the thesis from his Master's degree in economics was literally about the SUCCESS of the Soviet Union's economy! His thesis was presented in 1990, and a few months later the Soviet Union collapsed due to its economical disaster! And the only criticisms he presented towards the Soviet economy was that it was too despotic of a regime (if he had not made that criticism, it would have made his true opinion as explicit as his political party open support of left wing dictatorships in Latin America such as Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba... But according to the left, the authoritarian is Jair Bolsonaro...)

By getting back to his partnership with the president of Venezuela 😂😂😂😂😂

If Brazil invests in its people, who are diverse and extremely creative, the country would soar. The problem is that traditional industries in the country are devoted to extraction of natural resources at a low cost and at the expense of the environment and workers. Lula brings an important change in tone and philosophy. I have high hopes for Brazil.

In Afghanistan you just blow shit up to end a govt. 🤣

Just a small correction India crossed uk to be the fifth largest economy in the world .I have seen that in your chart UK was ranked 5th

IMO when Bolsonaro appointed one of the Chicago boys, he immediately lost any credibility.

Minute 2:11 The name of the fomer president is Fernando Henrique Cardoso, FHC. Spelled with an "H". Portuguese, not Spanish. Love the videos, btw

just like Venezuela Brazil would fall 🚶🏻🚶🏻🚶🏻..

"Lula wants the state to be a driving force behind the economy." So, literal socialism? I bet that won't come back to hurt the Brazilian people even more, right?

Just an small correction in 2:12 his name is Fernando H. Cardoso not Fernando E. Cardoso.

This is not neutral coverage. Words have meaning and you choose yours wisely.

Bolsonaro had not done auxílio brasil nor raised it. The congress and the parlament did it. And they have done that gaist Bolsonaro's political will. It's true that Brasil had small economic boom in the last couple of years but very little of it has to do with the federal policies promoted by his party.

Just to add information: the “thecnical” thing in the process the released Lula was that the judge was combining with the prosecutors of the court the way “proves” should be produced and even sometimes created and released to the media.

The poorest in last 50 years. That is Brazil Bolsonaro let for Lula.

Bolsinaro was doing a good job. He should come back.

Economic growth with loans will kill everything in the end ... Small Business or compleet country s in the end you're spending all your money on loan payments and is there nothing left... only loans

I can see you guys at VisualPolitik got a lot of things right in this video, but it would be nice if your sources were less biased, especially when it comes to explaining the whole Lula imprisonment story. Yes, at the end of the day, the “reason” his trial was annulled was that technically the case was investigating corruption on Petrobras and Lula’s supposed “””crime””” - yes, with multiple air quotes, had nothing to do with Petrobras. Now to the point of his sentence. Lula was sentenced guilty for receiving bribes from a construction firm. The problems there were: - there was absolutely no proof of him receiving any bribes. During the investigation, the prosecutor famously said “I don’t have proof, but I’m convinced…” - talking about the prosecutor, it was later found that the team of prosecutors in charge of the case were not only trying to find ways to involve Lula themselves (clearly showing their goal was political repression), but also arranging with the judge of the case what kind of “evidence” they could present so that he would consider Lula guilty. - coincidently, Lula was arrested a few months prior to the 2018 presidential elections, and, as soon as Bolsonaro was elected, Sérgio Moro (the same judge that arranged Lula’s conviction with the prosecutors) was named the “Super” Minister of Justice on Bolsonaro’s government. This is a very very summary of the situation, but I think it is important that you realize that it’s not worth jeopardizing a country’s democracy for some presumably good results on the economy. People kill each other by following this coward fascist bunch that, finally, were kicked out of power - and are now running away from the country like cockroaches running away from light to avoid paying for all the crimes they committed, especially in relation to letting COVID run loose and kill hundreds of thousands of people.

As a Brazilian I can agree that the video anaysis was a sober one

Here’s the trick… Lula won’t end Bolsonaros Brazil.

The problem is not spending what you don't have. That is how countries work. The problem is that a leader convicted on corruption charges is presenting an 32,4 billion dollar investment scheme...

Brazil had the most promising economy in South America by the end of the century until Lula came with the promises of Socialism then that dream ended. It's easier to go down than up. Bolzanaro has the right idea but it would take his successors to continue....and Lula is back in. It's said that people are the architects of their own hell and this shows.

Quite accurate, but a few corrections are needed.(1) Auxílio Brazil and Bolsa Família are exactly the same program that has been around since the times of president Cardoso. Each new president just revamp the same program to its own credit. (2) Geraldo Alckmin is a Fabian Socialist, rooted on Bernard Shaw and HGWells. Doesn’t look very Center-right to me.(3) Haddad is a University Professor whose PhD thesis is about the glories of Stalinism, the cultural revolution od Antonio Gramschi and the Frankfurt School, and all those extreme-left conspiracy theory that even the most Radical European socialists would deny to death! I think even Lula is more moderate than him!

I am brazilian and this vídeo got a lot of things wrong...

This is SOOOO biased. Its seems like you interviewed bolsonaro himself to make this video...Shame

The correct translation for the excerpt from Bolsonaro's speech at the minute (4:35) is "agents of the workers' party". Because he says "petralhada" which is a nickname used to designate politicians from the workers' party, LULA's party.

Thanks!

You forgot to mention that the number of people without any food to eat has reached an all time high at 33 million people

Guedes reads like gedys, not like gwaydees.

We don't know what you mean when the popup appears telling us: Bolsonaro raises Auxilio Brasil from $400 to $600... what is this a benefit? You give "no" explanation of this whatsoever? What is "Auxilio Brasil" you don't tell us?!?

I prefer this speaker than the other guy

You told, like any other media, that Bolsonaro is a "populist", but people elected the most populist of our time, Lula. Search for his presidency in the past, he created all that.

Center-right in Lula's context means center-right inside the Left...

Guys I have supported this channel for some years now (from Australia). I am frustrated by this new iteration. One thing that appears a constant with you guys is the inability to correctly pronounce non Anglo place and personal names. I feel this particularly in this vid, having lived for some time in Brazil. Really a little more research on pronunciation would keep your channel more relevant in the interconnected world in which we live, and be more respectful. Cheers Steve

You guys are liberal, and it shows.

It's Fernando Henrique Cardoso not Fernando Enrique Cardoso

Excellent video, but in here you have failed to point out Bolsonaro's connection to organised crime.

Seems like brazil is going down the drain, on the same path as Venezuela. more reckless socialist gov spending, and a spiral of debt

Petrobras was NEVER close to bankruptcy. It fell in value but they have always been profitable and could pay its dues. And it's weird for you to cite Paulo Guedes as a great thing but show nothing that he actually did to liberalise Brazil's economy, the public debt is the highest its ever been (so privatization help nothing), the tax system is still burdensome (nothing changed and he actually tried inumeral times to recreate new taxes, on dividends and bank transactions, for instance), the unemployment rate calculation was change to include uberized jobs as formal jobs to get the numbers better (which I would considered creative accounting)...

I think both partisans of Lula and Bolsonaro will get mad when they see this video. What means you made a good job. That being said, both of them are a disgrace to Brazil. I don’t see any solution to our actual problems.

And by the way..... Increasing spending on social welfare. Go explain that to bond issuers and buyers ( retail, institutional and sovereign ). You can only tax so much before alienating the voter base and creating backlash. Brazil isn't the USA, who can issue debt with willing buyers lined up. And the cost of money has gone up.

I expected better from this channel

He should have a jaguar mascot or something for his conservation efforts?

Question should be “how Lula managed to recall 60 million votes” and not “where Bolsonaro failed”. Even if he lost, Bolsonaro managed to increase the number of voters from 2018 to 2022.

I am Brazilian. And you did a very good Video! There are some missing points though. The Supreme Court is censoring many - even Congressmen. One Member of the Supreme Court - called Toffoli - was the Worker's Party lawyer. Back in 2019, Marcelo Odebrecht told the nickname "o amigo do amigo de meu pai", on Odebrecht documents referred to Toffoli. When that happened, Toffoli opened a Case that gives the Brazilian Supreme Court status of Investigator, Prosecutor, Judge and Victim. The Brazilian Constitution does not allow that. Only the Senate can stop the Supreme Court. But most Senators have Corruption Cases in the hands of the Supreme Court. In the sequence, Toffoli gives this Unconstitutional Cass to Alexandre de Moraes. The wife of the later has a business partner that was responsible for Lula's Election Campaign. Result: Moraes started to censor many people. That includes Congressmen. The Supreme Court also asked Lula to propose a Law in order to legalize the Censorship. Lula government already started to organize themselves for that. They will have an Entity to monitor Social Media. Right now, the Censorship continues. There are Journalists leaving Brazil, for criticizing Lula and the Brazilian Supreme Court. The New York Times did an Article about Moraes. Have a look. Brazilians think they are too far to become a Venezuela. But everything is, slowly, happening towards that. Sad!

The question is: how a corrupt mindset can improve people's lives? Corruption is the main issue here in Brazil. Haddad was the worst Sao Paulo's mayor. Check it out.

Lets share this video with our fellow brazilians, see if they agree....I am sure they wont.

"Chair Bowlsonaerow"

Brazilians, DO NOT give up your guns!

Great vídeo. The answer to the final question: neither of them. Maybe , in 4 years, bolsonaro and Lula can be in the jail. Both. And then , we , brazilians, can be free to think another choice

2:12 - The Henrique has an 'H' so it's FHC, not as depicted.

Lula seems like a government man which to me is even worse than a corporate sellout. At least corporation’s are efficient with its spending.

Great work Thank youU

Nice content, as usual. But it is so easy these days to check how to pronounce foreign names...

Kind of an oversimplified analysis. The unemployment rates, for instance, improved because they changed how to calculate them. Also, Bolsonaro was from the party most involved in the Petrobras scandals at the time. And the process against Lula was a mess. It was not simply the "wrong jurisdiction." it was proved that the judge and the prosecutors were working together, harassing witnesses until they declare that Lula was part of the corruption scandals. That was the main problem.

Thank God that nightmare is over...

11:25 Welp, this aged well. 🤣

Lies, and lies... you guys are not in our shoes.

Brazil controlled the inflation, today inflation in Brazil is lower then USA and Europe

That was a pretty good and neutral summary of the situation. I desire all luck in the world for Lula, but I am quite skeptical about his increasing public expenditures policy. I just hope the next for years to be better than the last four, can’t wait to see.