How Marriage Rates Reveal Russia's True Mobilization Strategy 

I love how people come up with creative ways to find out what is actually happening by using other open source/public information.

Calling this a “partial mobilization” is like calling this war a “special military operation.”

At the rate at which Russians have been leaving Russia in the past month, the Russian government must have sent a lot more mobilization notices than the number of people that actually showed up.

I love how smart this way is to make the estimation of mobilisation numbers. This might be the best one available without internal Russian govt reports

The marriage thing is actually a good idea for calculating the numbers mobilized. Marriage is almost always the prelude to death.

“We lost less than 6000 thousand soldiers in Ukraine... That’s why we need to mobilize 300000 troops with a law that actually can target 2 million people” (C) shoigu 🤡

"Like all estimates, this is going to require some assumptions about what's happening in Russia." As a general statement, this holds surprisingly true.

This makes a ton of sense. Married guys have super good financial benefits in most militaries Very smart deduction on the part of the news site, and some great explanation from this channel

Prussia was said to be an army with a state. Russia could be said to be a small principality that stole and stole until it was a big state.

Liked the range presentation of possible mobilization numbers. A factor you want to include is the medical/ condition of those being mobilized. Raw numbers are one thing, capable and then motivated individuals us another.

To get the 300.000 men you might need to send out 500.000 letters. Because some will run, some will dodge, some will injure themselfs, some might be taking care of relatives.

Russia is as good with mobilization numbers as it is with election poll numbers

Very excellent work putting together a full case and exploring that from every angle!

A thumbs up for talking around the subject, explaining not only how you got the figures but ways in which they could be wrong. If only other sources of information had that sort of honesty

Great analysis, but I think you are underestimating the number of men who got notices but who where then eventually rejected. I know two relatives who got notices but both were eventually released. Also, the prospect of being mobilized in the near future could also push many couples to get married now. This group of people might actually be larger than the group that has already been mobilized and are already in the barracks.

I like how Russia weaponizes incompetency. By being unable to collect accurate statistics, they prevented a scenario of leakage and kept the enemies guessing.

Putin lied? I am so surprised!

It's a partial mobilization, including partial equipment and partial training.

And men above 59 have been mobilised too, which would usually already be married or have no one to marry, so it's probably even more.

Well done on providing the base calculation as well as highlighting several potential issues with the assumptions. This is the way all such explanations should be done. My takeaway was that the estimate for the 'effective' mobilization is, roughly speaking, 500K on the high end, and 350K on the low end, and one suspects that Moscow taking various measures to make sure that an 'at least' number well above 300K is achieved. The main thing missing at this point is corroboration... i.e. an independent method of calculating the same thing. In time, it might be possible to look at budget or other similar numbers to see how costs have gone up. But the best numbers... the 'real' numbers... will stay secret, one suspects, until well after the conflict is finished.

They're getting as many as humanly possible. Arming a future uprising. Well done Ruzz 😁😁😂😂

Never thought of it this way, quite impressive

Very thought Provoking, absolutely informative wow,great video

Dear all: Let's put 500,000 people summoned to the service…. They need a minimum: 1 summer combat uniform and 1 winter combat uniform, 2 summer boots and 2 winter boots (total 4,000,000 boots), 500.000. belts and 1,000,000 minimum underwear, 1,000,000 gloves. And something that here in South America is called "The white gold of the troops", I am talking about toilet paper, calculate 250,000 rolls every 2 days (minimum), > 1.000.000 a week; Food (in combat in Central Europe autumn-winter) 1.5 kilos per person every 24 hours, hot drinks ( te or coffee) 500.000 liters per day, I'm not going to touch on the topic of alcoholic beverages. Add helmets, 500.000 Ak 74, millions bullets, combat harness, anti-shrapnel vests, millions handkerchiefs, etc. In terms of health: bandages, dressings, antibiotics, thousands of liters of : serum , blood and other fluids, analgesics, hydrocolloid heel patches (for recruits not used to wearing combat boots) and much more. ammunition, lubricants for weapons…. Is the Russian government in a position to provide the above, promptly, regularly and punctually ????🤔

The phrase "excess marriages" is delightful.

That's why you came here for, the lines baby 0:49 1:32

These are excellent videos. Very excellent. Thank you very much. A suggestion. Place your ads at the beginning of the video not during it.

Have you got any plans to make your book available on Google Play Books and is it available as an audiobook? Thanks, great informative channel 👍

Great insight here. The larger mobilization number helps to explain why mobilized troops are so badly equipped.

That study for the paper is ingenious

Very informative.

Great analysis

Interesting way to find out the real mobilization numbers.

Gotta love that Vin Diesel Medical Center. They specialize in “Family” care.

WOW! Good stuff!

Kudos on thinking outside the box for this one. Speaking of those wives, more than a month ago (Ukraine's claimed kills were 51-52k) some paperwork leaked regarding payments to widows of fallen Russian soldiers. The number, when divided by the amout Russia pays each widow, came out to around 48-49k, or about 90% of Ukraine's claimed kills.

I think the greater question is whether they have the equipment and training to fight during winter. Any ideas on how many people are being mobilized to work in factories to support the war effort ?

Russian Commander : "When you arrive at the front lines, your first task will be to search the trenches and combat zone for weapons and ammunition, also, you will need to remove the uniforms and helmets from the bodies of those conscripts that arrived yesterday.... make sure to check their pockets for any unused tampons to plug your wounds with, whatever equipment you find that is still usable is now yours, someone will arrive in a couple of days to give you your objectives, so, there you have it, move out".

A lot of the Russian trolls have been stating that the mobilization was not 300,000, but actually closer to 1.2m. In some cases, the mobilization offices went too far and sent recruitment notices to the sick (cancer patients), the mentally ill (autistics) and the dead! They even went as far as chasing any young men in the streets and arresting them or waiting in the lobbies of apartment blocks after work closed. It does appear that many of the zealous recruiters went so far that 30% of the male population were picked up. We now know that Wagner Group were recruiting the diseased. Accepting recruits with Tuberculosis, hepatitis and HIV, then marking them with wrist bracelets to ensure that their own side did not get contaminated when these soldiers were killed, but infected the Ukrainians instead. This is far more serious than we thought. Joe Bloggs channel did an analysis of Russian demographics and there's a serious shortfall in the numbers of men from 30 to 60. Just in the bracket that they would expect to recruit from. Mainly down to alcoholism and disease, but it could also include some of the men who were killed in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation of the Eighties. The Russian census was never as accurate as they liked to make out. Many of the young decided they wanted nothing to do with it and left the country. Putin was lamenting this with Lukashenko who told him not to worry about the numbers but I think I can see why. Around 1 million people have left Russia since the beginning of mobilization, according to Forbes Russia and it's doubtful that they will return until Putin is dead or the entire world is. A lot of the videos of the mobilized show grey-haired old men or young recently married men. Which backs up what you stated. Some of the telephone intercepts show that the mobilized do not last very long. They have no training, no equipment and some even have no ammo. Quite a few are being killed in less than a week of arriving in Ukraine because they lack any of the basic necessary skills and are being used as cannon fodder or a barrier in front of the contract troops that have been there some time. This is going to have a catastrophic effect on not only the work force, but it will cause a massive dip in the birth rate for decades to come. The only saving grace might be that once the war is over with Putin and his henchmen buried, the young men might return. They might still need to legalize bigamy to encourage enough births or actually invite migrants from other countries. Russians tend to be very nationalistic, so I doubt they would be happy inviting foreigners in, unless they came from Europe.

Putin treating his citizens similar to how the overmind from starcraft was treating the zerg race.

Larger may not bigger, they would need more training , equipment,and supplies. These issues are cited as the lack of effectiveness of the previous deployment.

These estimates, if accurate, can give us a clue on Russian casualty figures. It also can be hints for what type of battles the Russian side is expecting in the next phase. Large numbers of less trained lightly-armed infantry could be preparation for street fighting in Urban cities. Perhaps something like a Stalingrad?

Thanks! Another source of possible imprecision is that not every mobilized man in a relationship uses this quick option to get married, so the actual percentage may be higher

The first thing I thought of when I heard the announcement of the 300,000 partial mobilization was that, since only the government knows the real number, the real number was likely far higher than the official number. This was a really creative way to find out the true number, well done!

They are human shield not troops had been forced to. The number here doesn't indicate anything significant. Untrained, interested, unequipped common people to die for a mad

Based on your estimated range, I say from 250 K to 350 K actually mobilised and deployed

Thanks!

To your question. My guess is based on what it would take from a Russian perspective to turn the tide. (not what it would actually take but what they may believe it would take) I'm guessing the 500K now is fairly accurate. These are teh cannon foder troops to hold the lines over winter. (expect 20% casualty). Next guess is that mobilization will continue with an additional 3-500K which may well receive some training and if Russian can procure weapons from China ... may end up being adequately equipped and be ready to be fielded in late Spring.

Two things, a) considering the chaos in Russia, my guess is they are not really counting how many troops were truly mobilized. They have target numbers and some will lie that they were met and others will overperform to please the government. b) my guess is that they are mobilizing close to 1 million as cannon fodder. Still, quantity has a quality all of its own...

No telling if this hypothesis is true but what great logic to back it up, very strong case in this video

Is there any update on this?

I agree with you on this, Russia may not even be mobilizing 500,000 but 1 million! Because there have been unrest in southern Russia and Siberia so I doubt it's 300,000 for this much instability.

I am surprised Shoigu hasn't fallen out of a window yet.

From small region of 270 000 population we have almost 14 000 man mobilized or as volunteer

All spurious

All this, yet russia would still struggle against the Rhode Island National Guard.

The numbers might already be higher. People in their late teens and twenties in Russia get married more than older generations, yet this mobilisation has taken men well into their 50s in huge numbers as well. These are less likely to get married. Putin is desperate.

Also, married guys may be mobilized, but this is interesting method. Thank you for pointing that out

What is the optimum efficiency of 500k units - i think it will dramatically lower down in time.

I feel like the intent is 300k fodder and 100k or 200k troops. so send 100-300k to the front while you train and equip the other 2-400k. So I wouldn't assume this will produce 500k people as bad as the worst reports suggest.

The 300,000 call up figure was for the first wave, wasn’t it? Shoygu promised multiple waves of mobilization, didn’t he?

Could someone please explain the Vin Diesel Medical Center reference?

I would call this special operation "How to lose all credibility" followed by "How to let the world know that a Paint-Ball Squad has more skill than the Russian Army" followed by "Retreat, we practice this daily"

Even if they can train them, that's a lot of mouths to feed, clothes/weapons to supply and casualties to treat.

enough lines bro

its easy to call for 500,000 to muster... whats hard is getting to equip them and feed them all.

Maybe a half million. No more. Probably a bit less. In the current situation I don’t believe they could afford to mobilize more than that much less equip them in the current circumstances even if they wanted to. Not much point in soldiers with no training and bolt action rifles. But quantity has its own quality.

Sending greater numbers of untrained, un motivated, low morale troops with little to no equipment in winter will only serve to place further strains on an already difficult logistical and supply problem.

Vin Diesel Medical Center is just hilarious!

I think they confused "partial" with "half-assed"

To be fair, the secondary "front line" includes the Russian and Belarus borders. If conditions changed, like if Russia invades again from Belarus, would Ukraine counter-attack and raid Minsk to trigger a revolt? Or since Russia keeps shelling Kharkiv from Russia, could Ukraine raid Belogrod?

Also this misses out single people getting mobilised. That would mean you are undercounting.

There's an old saying -- When you shoot a gun, the loudness of the explosion doesn't matter -- what matters if the bullet hits its target. Mobilization numbers don't matter -- what matters is how effective the mobilized troops are. Current news indicates that these newly mobilized soldiers lack uniforms, boots, food, and some even rifles and ammunition. The BBC miniseries "Bullets, Boots and Bandages" focuses on how logistics won wars .. not flambouyant military generals. It's a brilliant series.

No matter what the number in the frontlines, for each soldier at least another two are required to be in charge of logistics of munition, food, etc‼️

I think the current number is around 420k and will exceed a million in the coming months.

9:31 mobilised soldiers ? 20k at most, rest are cannon fodder, not soldiers.

Also add to it regular conscripts this fall

I think it is strange time to do planned mobilization even if actual number is lower(it is all planned over year ago o hope no one forgot this). Personally i think number is close to right. After there was talk about at least 1.2 millions in three ways after sighting of planned partial mobilization.

Evidence based analysis. Nice presentation. Clearly pronounced to make the matter easy to understand for me - English is not the mother tongue.

500k so far.... seems more consistant than anything else, the sheer amount of ordinary people in general that this has touched indicates a lot larger figure than 300k in a population of 145mil, the document putin signed said 1.2mil which ultimately seems to be what thier target is.

“Doubling” the census number seems like an incredibly broad correction to apply to the pandemic census. A 20% undercount would get you right on the money for 300k

Interesting way to calculate- one question I have is did russia do "covid lockdowns" - I would think there would be a larger incentive to marry once lockdowns are over and then it takes a few months of planning so this may be a bit of a natural backlog? Just a thought

Even if they were a billion - it wouldn't matter. 1 000 000 000 x 0(the zero symbolizes quality/morale) = 1 000 x 0

When you have 50% irrecoverable losses in troop strength, you need to send every body you can find. It doesn't matter if they are mentally or physically capable of fighting. It doesn't matter if they have communicable diseases that will infect your other troops. It doesn't matter if they are old enough to retire in most civilized countries. All that matters is that they have a heartbeat, and you can throw them on a truck bound for the front. We all know that the irrecoverable percentages will climb much higher due to their lack of training, food, arms, fuel and ability. Projections show that russia will likely lose 70-75% of the troops they are currently sending.

Love to see you adding some humor in your videos

Did nobody else catch "Vin Diesel Medical Center" at 3:07

Putin's "Special Military Operations" in Ukraine is truly SPECIAL: recuiting 500,000 more soldiers!

The thing I think here is the underaccount I would operate under the assumption that 75 or 80% would get married not a 100% and therefore I would add a 3rd or a quarter to the figure based on that marriage rate. The smaller portion of that figure would be breakups but this would be more people who just stick with their unregistered status that they had before the mobilization. That would mean that there would be something on the order of 650 mobilized so far.

How does the normal annual conscription figure in? Before the "SMO", conscripts may not have expected to go to war. Now that expectation has likely changed. So now more excess marriages.

"Up to 600k" perfectly aligns with the numbers we got from whistleblowers when the mobilisation started.

How many can Russia equip, and how many can their logistics keep supplied through a winter? In my completely inexpert opinion, this puts a lot of pressure on Russia to take Ukraine quickly, before logistics can break down. More nuclear saber-rattling might ensue.

Undertaker……💀 The growth industry in Russia.

Is Vin Diesel to Russians what David Hasselhoff is to Germans? Just want to understand the hospital reference.

Lol. I knew U were gonna find a way to throw lines on maps in there. I had JUST said well at least this isn’t a lines on maps video. Then u got me two seconds later. It usually bugs me but u got me today I admit it.

wouldnt be surprised if only 2 or 3 ended up on the front lines

Soon they will be using cooking oil to fuel their tanks

500k or a mil, doesn't matter if the equipment isn't there.

During the pandemic organizing marriages/ christenings were complicated due to the limitations in place, many couples postponed the event. 2022 saw a boom in such events, in all countries, not just in Russia. I think the logic presented is true to some extent, but not in that magnitude.

A quote from my favorite history channel: "What did you expect, I'm Hitler!"

Imagine losing at least 8,000 troops just to take Bakhmut