The Ukrainian military has been talking a lot lately about how people need to moderate their expectations of the offensive and that they do not expect it to end the war in one swift stroke, just put them in a better position than at the start of the offensive.
Given how well UA info ops has been, I wouldn't take anything at face value. It's better to under promise and overdeliver. Last year's brilliant offensives had set some really high expectations. What I do expect is to be surprised.
@@oohhboy-funhouse Russia could be drawing in the Ukrainian army along the entire front just to destroy them . We don't know if they have decided to push hard yet or just create pressure along the front . One thing is , no one in Europe is going to poke the bear again , for a long long time. They are going to make sure they ruin the Ukraine.
@@parabot2 lol, holy shit that us some good cope. And your use of "the" when talking about Ukraine tells us everything we need to know about your opinion.
"Isn't war analysis fun?" That was awesome, I'm going to remember that one for a while. (And RU-vid's ad-break heuristics must be getting "better", because it scheduled one right after that line; great comedic timing on its part.)
@@zit11owner they don't, they have captured about 50% of bakhmut. the down town is still mostly in control of urkrain and they still can supply it using 3 different approaches. according to deep state. grey is contested, red is captured.
Maybe he's an alien wearing human skin like the little girl in the test range in Men In Black? Its obvious no politician would be able to tolerate reading a book like that!
@@LeCharles07 he wants people in the west to support him too. I believe that's why he used the "denazify" talk. Because he saw some teenagers here calling anything they don't like "nazis" and thought it would be that easy. It's just my theory though. You'll find they bring a lot of English-speaking "critics" of US military hardware to try and discourage the population from supporting things like new aircraft carriers and the F35. If your rival is trying really hard to convince you that your weapons are garbage, you should probably ignore them. He likes to pretend he doesn't need the west, but his actions prove otherwise.
@@LeCharles07 I wondered about that too. The Amazon listing shows the author as one Vladimir Fortov, who was president of the Russian Academy of Sciences and I presume a physicist or physical chemist by training. Putin though, has degrees in law and economics. Fortov was an academic heavy hitter who held a variety of prestigious posts. He was appointed to the presidency of the Academy by Putin himself in 2013. Maybe that's the connection.
Mr. Spaniel, you are brilliant. Good deducing and insight into human nature...coming up with your deductions and analysis of situations. Best on RU-vid in my opinion.
Wow!! Kind of in shock, you mentioned Mrs aliyah_fx_jessica, She has proved beyond all doubt that it's worth generating wealth from crypto investment. I've been earning greatly
I think the biggest difference from Ukraine now compared to Ukraine during its 1st offensive is the increase in trained soldiers and battle hardened men + much better equipment then they previously had. Edit : alright I get everyone’s opinions and beliefs but at the end of the day . This is all speculation and theories . No one can be absolutely sure that they are right . The leader of Wagner believes that Ukraine has 200,000-400,000 troops . And he is fighting the Ukrainians . So either Ukraine is great at projecting their forces at a large amount , making it appear that they have that many men . Or Russia is correct and Ukraine really does have that large of a fighting force. Either way no one knows so let’s chill out with the armchair general stuff . Including me in the armchair general.
@@McHallel Ukrainians are sitting on minimum 100k trained and heavily equipped soldiers who just got back from their training with NATO forces. Try again little halfwit.
@@sandymckinnon9762 Video "“Ukraine is l*sing” Foreign Volunteer admits in INTERVIEW with Willy OAM" boots on ground says that they are losing way to many in bakhmut. Might be true might not be
I really enjoy these videos because unlike so many on the internet, the author ensures that everything he states is "potentially" possible, instead of just stating it as an outright fact. I wish more media we consume was like this. Keep up the good work!
Look up Perun; him and William are my 2 go-to's for Ukraine analysis. Perun tends to focus more on the logistical/procurement side where as William tends to cover the tactical/strategic and the battlespace more.
@@suprememasteroftheuniverse Basically he's saying "here are the facts, here is the precedent, here is what we might expect... and here's the weather forecast in the Donbas for the next seven days."
@@ZeroResurrected one can fight for their nation instead of fighting against another but a soldier can also fight for the hate of the other side such as in the case of Canadians crossing the border to join the US army in Vietnam due to their dislike of the Communists.
I am here......America loves the Ukrainian people and honors the sacrifices that she makes for true freedom. The free world stands with you and should you faulter we will be there to help you push them back. The real strength of the old Soviet times was Ukraine the heart and bravery of Russia. Russians fear the loss of Ukraine to the west. They feel vulnerable and insecure. You can see it in their actions. Bring freedom to Ukraine and join NATO and officially join the European alliances as true brothers and sisters of Europe. We will be one.
It's pretty rare for me to stay focused for more than 15 minutes when watching a video nowadays but your videos are an exception. No idea how you manage to keep me staying so focused with every video
War is the most captivating thing people do by a long shot. Not even the moon landings compare to achievements under fire. its truly the edge of our world. so yahh when someone can also talk about the most engaging thing in the world in an engaging way, its pretty cool.
around 8 minutes in something is said that reminds me of an old political comic. It's two russians huddled in a large garbage can for warmth, It's labelled Russian Federation. One looks to the the 2nd and says "Maybe the other can wasn't so bad" and in the next panel we've zoomed out to see an empty can labelled "Soviet Union" nearby, with a cold a fire pit.
Better ask yourself questions :Why didn't Putin touch bridges, didn't touch energy for almost a year, why didn't he knock the snot out of the Ukrainian army while it didn't have weapons? Putin imitated the war. This is a terrible conspiracy. I suspect Mr. Putin has actually been a CIA agent for many years. He didn't want to fight. but he was ordered.
3 things. 1. Putin believes Ukraine is Russian and wants it back 2. Russia is in dire need of people and 40-50 million Ukrainians would help that. 3. The West let him attack in 2014 so he though we would sit back again.
It's hard to wrap your head around over a thousand of ONE TYPE of tank being lost in a year. That's over a third of the US's entire Abrams fleet. I can't even picture that many tanks in my head, much less all of them burning in some field on just one front.
The mud in Ukraine can be expected for some weeks to come, as the Germans learned some years ago after three consecutive failed spring offensives on their eastern front.
I'd be devastated if Ukraine didn't win. I've been hoping and praying and crossing my fingers and toes and whatever else I could think of for them to win. If Russia was to win, I don't think Russia would stop with them and then all hell would REALLY break loose and as selfish as this is about to sound, I'm about to say it anyway: I don't want that to happen during my lifetime. I really, really don't. I want people to generally treat each other with respect, or at least polite indifference. I know that's not how the world works though. I'm terrified my lifetime is where we destroy each other, and everyone and everything and.....somehow, that just really makes me sad and pisses me off at the same time.
Rest easy my friend and friends Russia will lose Putins War . An continue to embarass itself by showing how incompetent its Leaders and Millitary is and Putin will show how small a man he really is. Now the World ain't afraid of Russia as they once were falsely led to be afraid of Putin and his Army.
@@Bothandle70 Not very easy to get to Azerbaijan. Israel belongs to Israel. We slept on China unfortunately. India? I think neither India nor Pakistan are in the right, but the West knows too little about it. The best docu on that I have seen is from @Kraut_the_Parrot, he made an entire video on India and Pakistan
@@jonson856 The Golan Heights don't belong to Israel, the West Bank doesn't belong to Israel, the Gaza Strip doesn't belong to Israel, East Jerusalem doesn't belong to Israel.
One thing missing in this video is that these are not two ordinary armies meeting on the battlefield. It is one army invading another country and bringing genocide and destruction on innocent citizens. This is not a military war but the active destruction of human life. Therefore, I would argue the point "Ukraine is right" must hold, as it means "Human life is right".
Russian aggressions since 2014 in Ukraine till now is absolutely to grab neighbors territory. We pray a befitting reply now or later.ukraine has lost enough but still living bravely .
I think the answers for both sides are obvious: Ukraine wants all of its territory back. Russia wants all of Ukraine under its control. So the red line is an outline of Ukraine and so is the yellow line. Both continue to fight because they have not achieved their goals. I see this stretching into a war of attrition before I see Ukraine formally giving up any of its land to the invader.
Yep. There's no compromises with Russia. An agreement to go back to 2022 borders would equal a pause in the war for Russia to regain strength and attack again. Only way to end this war is to fully tank Russian economy and have a coup or division into separate (semi)independent states
Totally agree Mistake of this video’ brilliant analysis is just that - it’s brilliant 🙃 When people are driven by ideology, mystical beliefs .. or stayed in power for far too long to be in any adequate shape to drew correct conclusions.. Well, it’s like analysing and predicting a game where half of the cards are jokers 🃏
@@dalekcat The best thing is to give the land north of the Dnepro to Ukraine . But there are no Ukrainians to formally accept it. Since the coup there hasn't been a Ukrainian president
Since I was a little kid, I have read and learn almost every battle of the WW2 eastern front. It was the most fascinating conflict I have ever knew and I can't believe its similarities with this modern conflict. My prediction is that the conflict will only end with a very high casualty rate on both sides with a stalemate agreement. Russia will never back down until there's a government collapse and another political breakup of its regions.
@@ostwelt This conflict may have a similiar outcome like those battles between Russian and Lituania-Polish- Ukrainian commonwealth from the 17th century. The central power could easily hold their own against the russian onslaught but could have never achieved total victory. A stalemate will ensue with high casualty rate on both side and calm tensions.
Vous devriez plutôt envisager un scénario où ce sont les "démocraties" libérales qui éclatent, il est en fait beaucoup plus probable que celui que vous évoquez. A titre indicatif, en terme de parité de pouvoir d'achat, l'économie russe est passée devant l'économie allemande. Je ne parle même pas des autres économies européennes qui sont en train de se ramasser les unes derrière les autres avec peu de chances de pouvoir remonter la pente (ce qui est normal quand on est dirigé par des incapables). Les états unis s'en sortiront sans doute parce qu'ils sont capables d'être auto-suffisants, mais pour ce qui est de l'UE, c'est très loin d'être le cas.
@patricepicaud5490 Je comprends que les Français ont un fort intérêt à établir des liens amicaux avec les Russes pour créer un effet de levier dans leur quête pour dominer la politique de l'UE. La France doit protéger ses intérêts vitaux en Afrique afin de disposer de suffisamment de ressources pour être autosuffisante face à une Allemagne mieux équipée militairement. Cette phase de réarmement en Europe sera le début de tensions entre les alliés centraux et les puissances d'Europe occidentale (France, Espagne, Italie) L'Angleterre restera à l'écart et cherchera ses avantages étant donné que sa suprématie navale reste inégalée et qu'elle est alliée aux États-Unis. L'Allemagne redeviendra une fois plus militairement plus forte ou risquera d'être fracturée dans des régions comme elle l'était avant le 18e et le début du 19e siècle. Finalement, les français et les allemands entreront en guerre dans le futur et peut-être que la France sera dominante pour les 50 à 100 prochaines années.
@@Libertarianmobius1 La puissance navale de l'Angleterre? C'est une blague je pense, avec son super porte avion ultra moderne dont la seule et unique sortie s'est soldée par un échec lamentable et dont les moyens sont de plus en plus limités. L'Allemagne qui se réarme? Avec le peu qui va rester de leur industrie, je les vois plutôt mal barrés. La France dominante, j'en pisse de rire tant son économie est à la dérive. Quand à l'alliance avec les USA, je crois qu'il ne faut pas se faire trop d'illusions, l'économie européenne étant en bout de course, nous ne pouvons plus les concurrencer et ne présentons donc plus aucun intérêt pour eux, leur objectif est atteint et nous n'aurons bientôt plus rien pour acheter quoi que ce soit. Les pays de l'est de l'Europe qui vivent essentiellement des aides de l'UE verront bientôt leur PIB chuter fortement (les aides représentent environ 20% du PIB de la Pologne par exemple) et risquent fort de déchanter quand viendra la bise.
@@patricepicaud5490 Va vivre en Russie si t'en a tant envie, personne ne te manquera ici, il sera très drôle que de voir la réalité rattraper la désillusion que tu tes fait de la Russie. Tu ne fais que parler en des suppositions basée sur de la propagande Russe, la propagande Russe publiait que l'Europe allait geler en Hiver, résultat? Rien de tout ça n'est arriver, c'est drôle non? Et oui, bien sûr la pariter de pouvoir d'achat de la Russie a soudainement augmenter après des sanctions très bénéfiques pour son économie hein! (très drôle comme blague) Alors que leurs parité au pouvoir d'achat était au même niveau que celle de la Slovaquie, un pays très pauvre, tu en a d'autres des blagues comme ça? Car bon, tu devrais surement te convertir en tant que clown, tu ferais fureur en Russie j'en suis certains!
America's actual preferred outcome is for the Russian army to bog itself down in Ukraine and destroyed by western tech. We've already wiped out most of the soviet stockpiles, that's a huge win IMO.
Wrong. Russia's military production is out pacing all of NATO's combined. New Russian tanks, for example, are still waiting in inventory until needed on the battle field. How do you think Russia is able to fire 50,000+ shells a day, day after day? How is it you know nearly nothing about modern day Russia with so much information available? Do some serious research.
@@firstnamerequiredlastnameo3473 We know Russia's missile and artillery fire is 30% of what it was a year ago. And did you remember to adjust Russian numbers for wild optimism, lying, corruption and general vranyo? Cope and seethe.
Yeah, I still don't think one offensive is going to end the war. It would be severely damaging to Russia on the frontlines and assuming they're going the Zaporizhzhia route they may be able to cut Russia off from Crimea, but other than that I don't foresee Russia polling out of the war because of it.
Invasion of Russia to cut off the Donbass might be a good move. After all Russia has been baselessly accusing Ukraine of wanting to invade Russia for ages.
10:56 Please take into account desperation of eld dying men and women stuck in the past who send young people to die for their alien ideals. There is local russian meme "we can do it again" or "we can repeat", so far what can be repeated is dying in meat grinder battles. And nothing seem to be different.
@@harukrentz435 there’s actually quite a bit of difference. America doesn’t engage in meat grinder battles. Have we made some repeated mistakes? Yes but we do the meat grinding and not the other way around.
@@harukrentz435 The US has a very low tolerance for casualties, we literally can't engage in the sort of tactics that lead to hundreds of thousands of casualties like Russia can. There was major uproar and political backlash over losing ~5000 in the Middle East. Even bigger uproar over the ~50k from Vietnam, and both conflicts lasted a lot longer than this one has so far.
Definitely a case of hope over realism. General Zaluzhny might will say, the battle of Bukhmut is over, the battle for Ukraine is about to begin. Upon this battle depends whether we exist as a nation.
Muggings are related to conflict resolution, but it is definitely a good comparison for the Ukraine War. When the conflict is mugging, then the potential resolutions are, “1: Give the mugger what they want”, “2: Run Away”, or “3: Fight back against the Mugger”. But of course with large scale war between nations, the conflict resolution gets a lot more complicated nuances.
Perhaps you have overlooked the risk for NATO who will not want to reward Russian agression. The largest land war since WW2 has made an impression and ending the war needs to assure that it will not be repeated by Russia.
Your analyzation, in regards to money is spot on, and missing form almost all other reports, who try to invest the un-invested with emotional pleas and ideology. There are still some intelligent people who understand the basics and appreciate this kind of report.
First of all to end, this war is to move straight forward walking to it take everything that belongs to you quick as possible. No looking back get what belongs to you move out and done with the headache ? more longer. You stay in it is more harder it will take and cost more interruption and destruction. I guess this is the way of my thinking get it done and over with.🙏🙋♀️
These are only wishful thinking. Ukraine will need to pay blood for every inch they are going to take from russia. Plus they arent fighting alone since ukraine is supported by western mercenaries and weaponry. Russia will welcome them with artillery and missiles.
Its all a show though. Why would he have an English copy on his desk. Even if he were fluent in the language, a russian copy would be more beneficial. He wants the world to think he's a great intellectual, but he's not. Like everything with putin, its all a show.
I see Ukraine punching through in two places, the kinburn spit and some where in Zaporhizia (not spelling it right), either front would allow them to seige Crimea and if the Russians withdraw from that Putin is toast
If I may say so a well articulated analysis. Nothing happens in isolation. What would you say to a video looking in to the wider geopolitical consequences of this war? I presume the whole world is watching and every leader is making their own calculations as to what any outcome might mean, along with the behaviour of all those invested in the conflict on both sides. For myself I can see us all living in a much more unstable and dangerous world if Russia gets anything out of this war.
Deal mediated by China resembles plot from “Servant of the People” movie. In movie, Zelensky’s character jumped through hoops for an IMF finance deal that he later turned down after hearing the bad terms. In reality, Zelenskyy would be open to hearing a Chinese peace deal…but would turn it down after hearing the bad terms.
This is some of the best analysis out there. The only factor I think you are missing is Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting. I’ve read conflicting reports about how many fighting-ready men they have left in the country and some seem to indicate they are running out of soldiers. The same is true about the West’s ability to supply basic things like ammo. I am concerned that the West and Ukraine cannot win a long war of attrition against Russia. How that plays into how this ends, I guess we will see.
Russia 🇷🇺 simply can't win a war of attrition against Ukraine 🇺🇦 when there's over 50 Countries supplying Ukraine 🇺🇦 with war materiel!😮 Ukraine 🇺🇦 is 👌 OK 🆗 with manpower too and doesn't need another draft. Russia 🇷🇺 has lost their operation and will never prevail. They may be too dim to see that or too proud to admit it but they lost big time, and won't be able to keep what they got so far. But the harder they try the more they will hurt. Russia 🇷🇺 cannot accomplish any of their goals in Ukraine 🇺🇦. Simple.
The more reason why a successful Ukrainian counterattack is pivotal in this war. Even a minor success either continues or improves Ukraines current morale. However of Ukraine we’re to say successfully drive a wedge between Crimea and Russian held Ukrainian territory. That could see a spark of morale similar to when the war first starting and that morale boost could be the thing to finish off the war or mean it continues indefinitely like Afghanistan.
there is no such conflicting reports they are all coming out of Russia and their bot factories, Ukraines problem is not manpower but eqipment to the million willing to fight
This is completly untrue. There are plenty of wars before the 20th century that ended without one side overpowering the other: The American Revolution, Brazilian Independence, most of the Roman vs Parthian conflicts, some stages of the Hundred Years wars, the Imjin War, etc
I wouldn't necessarily say so. At least in Europe, wars were more often tied to very specific (often dynastic or economic) interests from the middle ages onward, and later became even less total as the totalitarian power of monarchies slipped. Most colonial wars were limited (take for example the American War of Independence) and even major continental conflicts such as the first coalition wars against Napoleon never intended for total military defeat, only political containment. Asia is a bit different, of course, with China often seeing more of an initial military defeat followed by a long, drawn-out decline of the former dynasty's remnant (e.g. the Song, the Han/Jin) and Japan's feudal warfare being framed more akin to police actions domestically (with differing opinions on who was rebel and who was lawman).
@@monsterfurby @monsterfurby You took "complete defeat" to mean a WW1/WW2 type crumbling of nations/empires/regimes/ideologies/social structures. What I meant was far less ambitious. A vast majority of wars in the 18th-19th century had a decisive winner and loser. That does not mean they all came with regime or broad terriotiral changes (the great powers always made sure the concert of europe remained intact). I'm not saying there weren't exceptions, *but we can easily go through the list of every war of the 19th century and see how many had a clear winner and how many were indecisive,* and I am more than confident in saying the first column will win out by a mile.
The Napoleonic Wars had a clear and decisive winner, what the original intent of the coalitions were is irrelevant to this fact. Pretty much every war Britian fought in the 19th century had a clear and decisive winner and that alone would consist of upwards of 20-25 conflicts.
Dear William. This is the first time I've watched your channel, and I am impressed. Yours is not a cookie-cutter analysis. It is insightful, original, and refreshing, helping me to deepen my own informed perspective. And your tongue-in-cheek review of the pant lines in that final photo gave your piece the perfect punctuation before I subscribed. I am looking forward to future reports.
May Ukraine liberate ALL of its territory with as few more deaths as possible. Russia needs to go home and deal with their own problems there. Slava Ukraini!
@@1pcfred Attempting to actualize historical claims without overwhelming support and force is unrealistic and destructive. Imagine if austria and germany invaded italy today because "tyrol is occupied" If you genuinely believe in that type of morality then you'd support the US ceding 1/3rd of its territory to mexico.
I know its hard putting yourself out there but man this video has aged poorly. How Western military leaders thought Ukraine could drive to the Sea of Azoz without air superiority -when NATO would never conduct an operation under Ukraine’s circumstances-is downright irresponsible.
@@chadhaire1711 you've literally just been spamming all these videos with pro russian anti Ukrainian comments in the past few minutes. I just checked your profile. I dont want to be 'that' guy but... are you a Russian bot 🤔
@@nicholasanderson9019 Truth is not spam Goober......Ukraine has lost Crimera, Lost Donbas, lost access to it Black Sea ports, lost all those German tanks, lost all their grain deals, lost the counter offensive, lost 9 million of their population who fled to other countries to get away from the corrupt pro-Nazi Zelensky gang, and yet we have fake channels like this telling us Ukraine is winning.....every prediction this so called professor has made has been wrong......you have time to go back and see my comments---seems you didn't ever take time to listen to this fools comments in his past videos but his gig are kiddie games and has ZERO background to qualify on any real military subject. By the way TWICE Putin put his cease fire peace demands in front of Zelensky.....BOTH he agreed to sign....does that sound like Russia is losing? But NATO and Biden blocked the peace deal each time....fact. You need to find another news source instead of these Ukraine propaganda garbage videos.......
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reportedly said Wednesday on national Ukrainian television that the planned counteroffensive "involves a vast and complex set of actions and measures carried out by the Armed Forces, which includes preparing people for a range of defensive and offensive actions." *She added that planning is "already underway"* and involved various strategies related to the preparation of equipment and reserves, training and tactical formation "chosen in such a way that the enemy cannot react," according to the Kyiv Independent."
Can you believe that last video I paused on the photo of world leaders to look at the lines on their pants? I really did. I'm so stunned that this next video is focusing on the very same thing. I was looking also at how the pants look formal up the top but they go all loose & shaggy down near their shoes. I had been thinking about the formal attire yet with messy human underneath sorta thing for a while.
with those defensive line.... it won't be easy... but not impossible. it'll be a most difficult battle ever in Ukraine history, so tough to the level that if it failed, no one going to surprise... but i hope they win.
I don't think AFU has any chances even with 2x more men. Russians building every day defensive lines and they are not using massive missile attack for a long time to keep them. Also Black Sea fleet will support russians in Azov sea. And do not forget that half of mobilized in the spring are not yet at the front (150k). And the success of the offensive does not mean the victory of Ukraine in any way, the only option for victory is an attempt on Putin or the full intervention of NATO. Otherwise, the Russians will simply support nuclear strikes on Polish and Ukrainian troops.
I'm honestly not sure how this conflict will end. I know how I want it to end, but it doesn't seem the most realistic. Both sides don't seem ready to give up yet. But I believe that the Russian military is not far from collapse.
The Kharkiv offensive was limited by logistical capacity. This time the build up has clearly involved more attention on building logistics..This offensive might cover a lot more distance.
Heeey, really love your videos, really informative stuff, keep it up man. Also, #wheresputin, 13:45, this one was reaaly good btw, my favourite so far :D
Yes, I think peace subsidies and information provision are the two main avenues for China to influence Russia to stop the war. With that in mind, China may have had some expectation that visits by European leaders would be opportunities for Europeans to subsidize China's potential peace subsidies. Or, for Europeans to give information provisions to China in return for some swaying information provision to Russia for the conflict to end. I sense China was successful with Macron given his stance on Taiwan and his deals with China on nuclear energy developments in China to solve China's energy problem. On that note, there is a possible list of key leaders with key concessions China desires to satisfy their threshold for them to decide to do something to stop the war. Not quite sure what they will be since many major players have made moves to China already. Aside from that, there are many important developments that can influence China on this in some way. This includes the developments regarding Taiwan. Macron's mention of this topic may point to some significance of this. The level of escalation that occurred recently can also be some evidence of this fact. This may be some calculated move of brinkmanship that will bring more actors to come to the concessions table for China. It may also be the promise of de-escalation that is presented as some incentive. Nevertheless, from the vantage point of an observer, it seems there is a severe lack of real communication amongst everyone involved as to what each are willing to give and take and the level of effort exists for meeting in the middle. There also seems to be some lack of trust that every actor has in how they themselves assess the situation and doubt of their own accuracy in understanding other players' motives. There is a lack of trust in what the US knows and how accurate their knowledge is on the developments of the war apart from predicting that it will happen and knowing everything that Russia does. They've been consistently underestimating Ukraine. The US may have some doubts on their own accuracy regarding Ukraine's strength as well if they've internalized the misinterpretations as something to address. There is some lack of trust China has on what they know on Russia, since some officials in China have leaked that the CCP to the financial times that they had no idea Putin would start a war or even believed he would have done so. The CCP demoted their Chinese diplomat to Russia as a result for this lack of true understanding and forecasting. The surprising lack of accurate forecasting in the past year and before the war may have generated this doubt that countries may feel. And so uncertainty influences issues to be left up in the air. It may be that a long recalculation has commenced based on what made the war and its development unpredictable for those who did not predict it as the US has. There is possibly long recalculations being performed by the US on the alignment of the EU given Macron's visit. And, perhaps some European countries are doing the same regarding how far they want to be aligned with the US on Taiwan and trade with China. Another surprise was the Iran Saudi Arabia peace deal China brokered. As such, the long stalemate and wait before the spring offensive can give the world some time to calculate their stance and response for each potential outcome. This can give a greater likelihood that peace can occur post spring offensive as all involved would hopefully be locked in to their strategy and act accordingly, and so finally put the issue behind them. I imagine perhaps a lot of game theorists are trying to calculate these strategies within each country, and hopefully they minimize the possibility of coordination failure, and worse outcome is reached for the world.
China & Russia are moving pieces of the international "chessboard" (see Zbigniew's book). The piece they wish to defeat miitarily is America's "baby" in the Middle East--- and take her survivors BACK TO EGYPT as P.O.W.s. That;d make them the "laughingstock" of the nations as they all began ro ask "WHERE'S THEIR GOD? And-- WASN'T HE SUPPOSED TO COME & S A V E T H E M ?" (There;d be no let up on that, as priests and preacher and "Christian Nationalists" in Ameeica & Europe alll started ruffling through their Bibles, s
saying "DAMN! That wasn;t supposed tp HAPPEN that way"--- and MUSLIM SOlDIERS OF IRAN< SAUDI-ARABIA, EGYPT....SUDAN & LIBYA all rejoiced, saying "AT LAST WE HAVE IT (!) ---WE HAVE SWALLOWED HER UP...THIS IS THE DAY WE'VE BEEN WAITED FOR--- WE LIVED TO SEE IT!" PS (Who''d fell sorry for a "snake charmer"--- one that GOT BIT by his OWN PET VIPER? [ Ref. PSALM 58:3-11 ]. Amen.
1) Ukraine has made it fairly clear that recovering Crimea is not negotiable. 2) Ukraine did not have anything near it's military capabilities that it either has or shortly will have to launch a larger & more encompassing counter offensive that, looking at Russia's performance over the last year hasn't been too impressive 3) China, IMHO, doesn’t want this war to end for 2 reasons: 1) it's consuming large quantities of western military supplies & 2) it's keeping the west & to an extent, all eyes in Europe, freeing china's hand in the Taiwan area.
So far the Ukrainians have delivered. They will deliver again. The Russians have not. Latest their winter offensive that was... well, it was what it was. Was it even there? Trust in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
@@McHallel Bs, it was total meatgrinder for Russia with 3:1 as most optimistic KD. How can you even think that the attacker loses less people and materiel than the defender ones?
I have a really really bad feeling about this offensive. Russia has had a long time to recruit/conscript hundreds of thousands of new soldiers, mine every square inch of everything, and they've been saving their artillery. It's gonna be a bloodbath no matter which direction they go. It better be something ingenious.
The deciding factor will be the Russian soldier, knowing what we NOW KNOW about them, they most likely will "cut and run" when the Ukrainians outmaneuver them!
@@MDP1702 Because they don't have a lot of it anymore. They need to prepare to repel an offensive but they don't know where the offensive will be. When the offensive starts they'll need a lot of extra weapons in reserve to push towards the offensive when and where it happens.
@@khiem1939 I just don't think that's the case anymore. I could be wrong. But the Ukrainians are fighting a completely different Russian army than they were during the Kharkov offensive last year. They're much bigger, more experienced, and have a ton of incentive not to fuck up again that bad. I'd say that at every level they're doing everything they can to prepare for a spring offensive especially since their recent offensive failed so hard. The Ukrainians are going to face a similar challenge to the Russian's recent offensive which is a heavily mined and entrenched front line in depth.
I think PUtin is still trying to micromanage the war, not as much as in 2022 after he about Garasimov. However, Putin still thinks he knows better than his generals or anyone else about strategy. hence his micromanagements down to the brigade level have led to disasters on the field. Putin has a very stubborn ego and will continue to do so.
With Putin and Shoigu still herding the clowns there's at least a chance' of something going in favour of Ukraine. Course the downside of that is they're willing to fight until the last Russian east of the Urals
Seems he still overestimates the power of his Military. However, he is still a Cheka (Agent), a bureaucrat who controls people and loves to sabotage others.
#wheresputin is so much fun! This one was difficult... although I was suspicious about that frame in my initial watching of this episode I didn't spot him, until a second pass... 13:31 Xi always uses his head when he's looking for micro-putin.
I think the AFU is going to shatter the Russian forces. It's not just about numbers, it's about cohesion. The Ukrainian people and their military are one cohesive unit united by the common goal of survival. All of Russia sits on the tip of a pin named Vladimir Putin and is divided in ways we can't even see because of this. What a massive AFU offensive will do is bring to light the inherent fractures in the Russian political system and the military it created in a way that Putin will not be able to control. So yes, I think the coming AFU offensive is going to shatter the Russian forces in Ukraine. Because they are all there based on lies in the exclusive interests of a regime that is itself entirely based on lies.
@@probium2832 Yes. No one knows what the AFU command has planned except them. But it is going to be massive and its aim is the destruction of Russian forces in Ukraine.
