@@ventooreo9358 Y'all complain too much. If y'all were in public and there wasn't any hotspots/wifi/data/etc. Y'all would be complaining about that. Make up your mind people. You're at home, you can relax, smoke a bowl, eat shrooms for the first time, grow weed and sell it online. Jeez.
@@austinmontgomery8908 ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-0W0B2Qg3r2k.html that is how china does it... so lieing is not realy what they are doing...
@Parallax , US government is actually boosting testing, so expect cases to skyrocket. China is not even testing which is why their cases are plummeting. Do to the transmission rate the US is most likely already near a million infected, which means the fatality rate is far less than the flu.
@@plazmaguy13yago9 look up what rules they made, how they tracked every single person to stop contamination, how stuff was cleaned, each room or street people went to they had to scan barcodes to track, they might be lying about the numbers, but they did get something right, everyone can be tracked, only chinese reveal they can do it and actually use it to help people and no one whines “but my rights”
It’s this kind of information and education that we need on actual news reports, not just constant reports of the numbers without much context or graphs
Which "these" videos? The problem with demonetizing, imo, began when Internet became common in 3rd-world countries and scammers were enabled to have tools within their homes, right: computers and web access (and they didn't have to have money any more, to visit cafes, heh. :))
@@ностромов i think you mean when advertisers were given the option of filtering so called "no-no words" aka covid, pedophile, fuck, any political terms etc etc
@JGD having a party isn't illegal so they can't arrest them for it, also why the fuck do you want him to shoot them "You're the problem" he can't do shit about it
Because its science. Most americans arnt familiar with science. They believe their alternative fact, know it all president, who thinks hes smarter than the doctors and scientists.
Samuel Ray saying “not all Americans” isn’t so helpful either. I agree it’s not useful to be arrogant about relative smartness/whatever to people in the so called US but safeguarding non-Trump-people there often shifts the conversation in another direction.
I Am That I Am yes. MSM reporting that US passed China for cases. Except they aren’t reporting that China just stopped counting and testing! When your an authoritarian regime you can make things look the way you want!
@Bob Smith It's entirely possible, even likely, that China is lying about infection statistics, but that doesn't mean we can't still use the data from other countries to inform our decisions. Dismissing a pandemic as "fake news" is dangerous and puts not only yourself, but everyone else at risk
You need to remember, when looking at this, you're seeing China as one of the countries who are "beating corona". But they are blatantly lying, and any research into this, and videos about WHO doctors backing china on political issues, so they have access to where it started, shows this even more. South Korea, I havent done research into it, on the surface seems like the truth. But it could be lies as well. Not to mention all the countries lying and twisting the numbers. The UK for example, doesnt report deaths that happen outside of hospitals as Corona related. Russia is refusing to acknowledge that they're hit and has a spike in 'pneumonia' cases, Turkey was also ignoring it and pretending they had no cases, even going as far as to advertise their country online still. I mean the only way you can trust is North Korea cos their cases they solve by executing when they "escape from quarantine". This pandemic has just shown how fucked the world is, no one can tell the truth. Not even about something as serious and life threatening as this. And lastly, countries aren't able to report their numbers rn, because of the over burdened health cares and the testing of essential people only in the UK for example. Better way to gage how bad it is, is to look at the critical/serious tab and apply this to MPs video, as opposed to the total numbers.
@@hazelcalderbank1556 Notice China and S Korea lines go down...controlled news. The other line going down was Diamond Princess...after all 712 on board have Corona
so, it's 2022 now... might be interesting to see a two year revisit of this topic.. how did vaccinations change the graphs visualized here? what about testing pretty much becoming routine in a lot of places? how about the rampant spread of new variants vs the spread documented here?
I was just looking at it, for some country's, it seems like they went into lockdown, and cases dropped, and then the second they got out they went back to where they would have been if they hadn't gone into it. Others seem to have been slightly more successful, when looking at the graph with all the countries plotted, they leave the curve at about 100k total cases, and then go at a (slightly) shallower slope up, in a new main sequence (idk might be the same slope, just changed because the scales stop it being 1:1 as you move from the main sequence)
none of the country beat covid, except china with fake data, instead, most of the country choose herd immunity and live with covid, so who to blame? remember another name of covid19 is wuhan virus
Well less people are dying once they got the jab which is good thing... the bad side is governments just seem content of letting it rip overloading our hospital systems again. It's not just the people who died of covid19. It's those who died because they could not get the medical care required because the emergency ward was fully packed with covid patients.
Oz Khan yeah but trump kind of did the same thing. He downplayed the risks and ignored the problem which only accelerated the pandemic, like the Chinese at the start. Plus they did not cause this, they accelerated the process and danger of the pandemic but they did not cause it. It was going to reach the US eventually it was only a question of when.
@@Matthias_Fischer That's right. Only increased testing will tell us where we really are on X/Y graph. Right now it's like driving in the dark with the headlights off.
I've been talking about this for a month. (And it's not original with me of course.) So far, I've never seen anything on this in the news. Instead, the news is universally hyping the exponential growth aspect of the spread. So called "experts" are pushing the impending doom rather than letting us know when to expect it to stop. What you should look for is a decrease in the number of new cases per day. When you get a real downturn in the new cases, that means that the epidemic is about half over. Recently, new cases in Italy have decreased. But, a the point of the decrease in new cases, the exponential growth curve is the steepest, so morons think it is getting worse instead of turning around.
The only numbers you can more or less trust are death numbers, because they are being tracked much better than the total amount of cases because of the low availability of tests in most countries. Total number of infected people now is very likely in the tens of millions if you consider the death rate (
I live in Russia and I am afraid to imagine how many people are really infected here, no one observes the quarantine . I closed my home with my family and survive on the money I earn
We wish you luck and keep you in our prayers my friend! Stay safe. Your family is lucky to have you, a thinking person who chooses to do the right thing! 😉😁🤗🧡💜💙
косвенно ты можешь отследить это по заполненности больниц и по соцсетям. Когда пойдут массовые случаи это будет сложно скрыть. В Тольятти вроде пока норм, траффик на дорогах резко упал
@@DaBurntToaster something like that. I remember thinking at the time this would be controlled enough we could go back to normal life in just a few months. Then, you know, 2020 just continued to do it's thing...
That not always a pessimistic statement. The Oxford study assume the infection rate is higher but the symptomatic fraction is lowwer, because only symptomatic people being tested the actual number of carriers is unknown. Rationing has introduced a bais into the data.
I didn't even noticed it. I am over here trying to understand the video and yet yall comments is about the background music. Like wtf who notices that?
The countries that are growing the fastest are those that are doing the most testing, if you don't test anyone it would look like you have no cases when in reality you would just be ignorant to the truth. This was one reason the UK government restricted testing to include only those already showing symptoms (and even then not everyone is being tested just those likely to survive) to artificially lower the numbers. In my opinion everyone should be tested so that those who test as post infection can be studied to establish what the long term immunity and infection rates are likely to be, by taking regular follow up samples and possibly volunteers re exposing themselves for medical research. And those that show no infection can take the precautions necessary, no point everyone staying home of half of you have already had the virus. Without testing their will be countless people convinced they are immune when in fact they had a regular flu or cold, putting themselves and others in danger out of ignorance.
@@mrpepe9502 This data is from march 19th. We did test most people in the world by now as of 3/30 we are closing 600k test. Although South Korea still surpasses the US on tests by 100k people, because obviously, the US is a much more populated country.
I've watched this a few times now and it's actually a really good teaching on how to use statistics while being careful to convey what the chart does and doesn't tell us, and what we need to know about what we _don't_ know about the data, in order to use it properly.
Math and science says, if you quarantine everyone for several months you should see new cases go to zero. A country does that, and reports their numbers going to near-zero. Americans who can't do math: "no way that's possible, they must be lying"
Something smells fishy, tho it needs official confirmation from other nations. And Anyone knows a little about Chinese authorities right to be skeptical about it.
@@nuonuoquan8413 Well, among some other countries, China stopped or slowed down the testing of patients. There is no doubt that they are doing a great job, but when you don´t test your population or don´t investigate the death of some people, then i guess the numbers have to go down this quick
@@hamiltonumbatanakgeorge433 obviously. China's new cases number suddenly became 0. It didn't slow down, it just... Stopped dead in its tracks. That means that China is most definitely lying about their numbers. Especially after they kicked out all foreign journalists. Either they just lie outright or they stopped testing for it so the number can't rise anymore.
“In these uncertain times, times can be a little uncertain. And when times are uncertain it can be hard to know for certain what time it is” - Ryan George
it kinda shows us the worst is already done so if youre feeling great its great you probably dont have it the social distancing or specially lockdowns will have an effect 3 4 weeks we are just seeing tests being done on people infected 2 3 weeks ago.
Logarithmic scale flatlines though, unlike an exponential scale. Logarithmic slows down the more it goes, but an exponential scale keeps on getting bigger and bigger and bigger in much greater increments.
The question of "when does this end" "when do we see the light at the end of the tunnel" is huge to me right now. Thank you for offering a way to look at it that might offer signals for the questions I have.
90 days until the entire world is infected at the current growth rate, which is only about 13% now, worldwide, as opposed to 30% a few weeks ago. The more efforts we make to stop the spread the longer it will last, unless we can slow it to the point of stopping, which seems unlikely on a world scale.
I posted this as a standalone comment, but it pretty much exactly answers your question so I figured I'd paste it here too: If you want a better way to generate basic "when does this end" predictions, you should plot a quadratic regression to your plot of y' vs y. Because we expect the growth to be fairly logistic this plot will actually be quadratic and not linear. This allows us to fit a quadratic regression to the data of the form (ax^2 +bx +c) from which we can get values and errors for a and b. We can then uses the values to find the peak of this quadratic (-b/2a) which corresponds to the number of cases when we are halfway to the peak of the disease. By properly propagating the error in the values of a and b, we then get a new interval for the approximate number of cases which we expect to see at the peak of the disease (lets call this value k for now). Then an exponential regression can be fit to the raw case data of the form (ce^(dx)) so that values and standard errors for c and d can be found. We can then solve for x as a function of c,d and k and we see that x = (2/d)ln(k/2c). Finally, propagating the error once again we're left with an interval representing the day we'll most likely hit the carrying capacity of the disease. Doing this with the data available back in March 15th it was predicted that the peak would occur somewhere between April 17th and April 26th. But now with the current data this interval has shifted to May 5 - May 10th as of the currently available data today (these are just the numbers for the US btw, but using data from another country of interest or the global population can easily let you make the same predictions for these other populations).
In my view, the fact you pointed out the "caviats?" of this analysis is the biggest take away. You just educated so many people that a number is a representation of reality and is meaningless without a context. Thank you
Numbers are not the representation of the reality. In the case of China, N. Korea, Turkey, Venezuela etc, their totalitarian regimes don't like to publish the real numbers of deaths and sick people. And we now that from incidents like for example the China’s mobile carriers announced a reduction of 21 Million users for the last months. That's a very bad indication of the user's health. Another piece of news concerning this is here: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
I am incredibly glad that he pointed all of these out. I have been trying to explain this to a COUNTLESS amount of people who look at the news and start panicking without even being properly informed.
I can't be the only one noticing South Korea in the headlines every other week placing top position in all kinds of categories these days.. Kudos to them!
Karen Tomczak they also have access into your credit card history and geo-tags from your phone. So unless you want to sacrifice your right to privacy....
Not mine. I use a rotary. I'm safe until FaceBook has helped China run their oversea cable ashore in Oregon for direct wire access to The America's. Excuse me if I ignore South Korea and focus on a Communist-directed USA Corporation.
@TheGhost if America does what everyone did( like China) and stay inside/ self Quarantine ( which most of the population is doing in America) then we'll be fine. I believe the issue that makes America Look like it's getting worse is that we only started taking it seriously recently
@@ajv802 Trump just needs to shut his mouth sometimes. As someone who likes to look at both party ideas and form my own opinion from it, Trump isn't as bad as extreme liberals make him to be. I don't like him, he's compulsive yes, but he's not an absolute terrible president.
Pepper 403 he’s got a higher approval rating now than ever before (according to the accumulator of all popularity surveys on FiveThirtyEight). People are believing him. Our country literally believes a month’s rent and billions in bailouts to the companies that spread this shit around will cure both the virus and it’s associated economic collapse. Why? Because of less than a week of positive stock data fueled solely by the bailouts and thirty damage control press releases where he makes nothing but empty promises and self-hype monologues. Meanwhile the virus continues unimpeded and unemployment is absolutely exploding. We’re all fucking doomed.
@@Natibe_ He's the President during a difficult time in America. Every President has lied too. And yeah, right now he's been lying quite a bit about getting testing to everyone and etc. But that doesn't mean he's terrible. He's trying to keep the country Calm. Also, the people that believe that are idiots and are obviously not looking at stats and crap. Media is exploding the virus and honestly it's hard to choose on what to believe at this point. Ppl want to trust the President but sadly the government is a Lil corrupted. We're not all doomed though. The virus is causing unemployment yes but that in itself is not the governments fualt. And they're trying to do the best they can but honestly, anything Trump does to try to help is going to get sh*it on. And that's why I am some what defending him. Even if he's trying to help, ppl are still gonna sh*t on him
@@wizard7314 Bob probably is getting foil hat feedback often, for "anything can happen" truism stretched to untrue territories. (conspiracy theory thinking) There are limits to our knowledge, and any decent scientist knows that, but can speak with reasonable amount of certainty, too. And for this virus, I've yet to see anyone claiming to know what they don't. (and I'm following a lot of various experts in related fields)
If there's one thing this Wuhan SARS virus (which is what the Loyal Chinese lapdog WHO called COVID-19 after China's political lobbying) taught us, it must be the fact that the China government is a habitual lair. Hit the emergency button like China? It shows that you know China nowhere as well as those in Hong Kong and Taiwan. No offence, seeing and making sense of the figure and graphs is one thing, taking active measures are quite another, and here is the key point - Hongkongers and Taiwanese, both closest to China geographically and commercially were supposed to be most affected, and yet they were far better than the Europeans and Americans, because both do the same thing --> wear surgical masks whenever you are among the crowd and do not trust China. The case figures in HK and TW will show you whether this is true. Washing hands are necessary, but for WHO to stress this is no different from making a statement of discovering that your mother is a woman. WEAR THE MASKS!
Never heard about your “wave theorem”, but yes the virus may come back.........in another kind of virus. Newest scientist research are try to find a “general vaccine” to solve groups of virus in one vaccine but this is still far away to go. There some fact about your questions why China don’t curfew and lockdown each province, in fact they did. I know this because my parents is currently in China and she told me people are not allowed to travel unless they have “health card”, country side or community are not allowed any entry even traveler have the health card, so that means my father can’t going to her own house just because he had been coming to other provinces.
It would be educational to go back and analyze this graph again with hindsight and another year of data points to determine what we new can learn about this approach. How did it do since a year ago.
My daughter is in isolation in a city. She looks out her window and constantly sees crew trucks of Latin day laborers risking the lives of people ......to prune a tree
Lisa R How exactly does being Latino have any relevance to your comment? Also, I saw your insensitive previous comment about NY being ran by liberals and that’s why there is the situation there in. This isn’t about politics or ethnicity. I know Fox News and your ALT Right Neo Nazi mentality wont let you believe that. People are dying and you choose to be racist the far right political. Absolutely disgusting.
@@lisar3777 You 'personally' going to help those guys feed their families and pay the rent? Stay in your safespace and let the men risk their lives for your benefit. 😉👍
One word: YES. The most important thing is not where we are in absolute numbers, but rather where we are headed in relative numbers. Finally a voice of reason among the white noise: Science.
In relative numbers most every country is headed up as in an exponential increase in infected cases. Only those regions that initiated a complete shut down early on have chance to "flatten the curve". And yet even those will likely experience a high number of cases though not necessarily an extreme number of cases.
@@michaeldeierhoi4096 flattening the curve is not binary, every precaution taken against a disease flattens the curve to some extent. Though I do agree that earlier quarantine would be FAR nore effective.
^This. If you wanna help out, start making masks. And I mean good ones. So 'the shopper' can come home uninfected. There are great tutorials. You also need airtight goggles. Check dads toolbox.
@Python PogChamp Nope. You're a liar, or brainwashed by your capitalist goverment that is so used to lying that they have people like Trump and Hillary to be their puppets. What did your capitalist leaders tell you? "Think of it like the flu", "it'll disappear like a miracle", Huh!? In the meantime, China acted, public transports were cut between cities, and even villages, people isolated themselves, wore masks if needed to be in public, while you watched, laughed, and criticized. Your leaders won't admit it's was their fault. They just blame China, as in everything else. How convenient! And you brainwashed herds believe them. Accusing China of practicing slavery, seriously? Sure, about a hundred years ago, just like the US. Now? Any proof you've got? Any none idiotic proof.
Thank you so much for making this. I hate the 24 news cycle and how it purposefully milks any story for all it's worth. Unlike them, this is actually informative and paints a picture for a hopeful future.
Does it, though? Almost all countries are right on the "it's not working" path, other than China (which took serious measures and also is probably lying on top of that), South Korea (which took serious measures also, from the get-go) and maaaaaaaaybe Iran (don't know anything about their situation, can't comment... though I wouldn't be surprised if they're downplaying the numbers too). Everyone else seems to be going straight towards the top-right corner.
@Yoochan Shin I know it had its health minister coughing his lungs out on live TV while doing an inteview insisting everything was fine and that the virus wasn't going to be a problem, then soon after that dying of the virus because of course that's why he was coughing. I'm not super predisposed to trust their reporting now, but who knows. I haven't looked into it too closely since then, it's a problem everywhere, so I was looking at much closer to home.
@@NavaracVolare yea but many people never paid attention in school and most forget what they learned immediately after graduating. That is the source of many problems in the world today - stupid people.
One year later and the graph is still updated. It become very obvious that two group have formed: The "zero covid" stategy (China, South Corea, Australia,...) is low and stable. The "live with covid" (USA, most of Europe,...) stategy is high and unstable.
This is brilliant, and so compelling. Hers a note to the "incomplete data: I'm from Denmark and on the 14/3 Denmark changed who should have a Corona test. Denmark went from testing everyone to only the one with severe symptoms, and hence there is a dip in your graph. What I find very interesting, in a not-so-good-way, is that now the dailycases runs in parallel again. Frightening.
It is interesting to see how different countries react to the same situation: Switzerland has done the exact opposite, from testing only the "people at risks" with severe symptoms to testing as massively as possible (hence the scary bump in the number of cases confirmed in Switzerland). I hope we can afford to also test people who suspect they got the virus but were only mildly affected, it would certainely give interesting information on the real number of cases.
Yes, it is remarkable, even paradoxical, that this graph is significant without being reliant on uniformity of the testing (or reporting) policy of different countires. I can tell this by comparing Italy and and S.Korea where the testing policy is completely different as indicated by the ratio of tests to positives: 4:1 in Italy, 26:1 in S.Korea. Nonetheless the initial "main sequence" is essentially identical (until S.Korea regained control of the epidemic and drops off the main sequence). At least the graph is insensitive to this factor so far as the policy remains constant. As You pointed out, if the testing policy worsen then it could appear as an artificial "favorable" change due to its movement relative to the historical accumulation of the total cases. Since this change of testing efficiency can also be unintended (e.g. if the epidemic saturates the testing capacity), this mimicking of "good results" is actually a very relevant concern when assessing if measures are having some positive effect. Italy seems to slowly drop from the sequence, but what is this? Is the effect of the national lock down, or some worsening of detection and reporting? Some confidence comes from the fact that the ratio tests:positives has increased slightly (that's what You get when You increase Your capacity x13 times in 25 days but Your enemy is an exponential, that You are really happy of a slight improvement...), but it is far from settled, and it is not yet to the point that the spread is confirmed to be below its critical efficiency. That the graph is mostly not reliant on the quality of data is a good thing, we can assess the trend without needing to make assumptions on that factor.
Want to survive? Stay inside. Wear mask when outside. Flush nasal passages at least twice a day. If you have a "FloNase" type of device...use it. If not.....use a squirt bottle with warm+ water. The spraying you all have witnessed for the past year is now showing results AGENDA 21
@@ThePinkus that's the nice thing about the double-log scale. Changes in testing methodology will just shift the line horizontally or vertically, while maintaining the overall slope. And even comparably large shifts in the absolute numbers are "dampened" by the log scales.
Once you start learning trigonometry, you will never go back. There is always more to learn in trigonometry related concepts no matter how much you learn.
It can happen. Singapore showed a 2nd spike in the animation, and if you look at the world Data you would also see a second one because China dominated too much at the beginning
@Dylan LYou're looking for this video to provide information that it wasn't intended to. Instead of criticizing what is a good video you should do some research to find the answers to your questions.
They are, but I believe that they actually don't have a lot of new cases anymore, because people are allowed to go outside again and the government literally isolated them into their homes.
Well some of our stats are also , if you look at all the times trump claimed to send thousands of tests and hospitals claimed to never have received them you’ll see something clearly doesn’t match up.......
@@thepanyacao9936 I mean, some people have done studies on what comes out from trumps mouth and apparently almost up to 40% of what he says in incorrect so I would not take anything he says as the truth. To me he's just comedy relief :)
This is fantastic. I would love to see, however, the x-axis being number of cases per head of population as this would provide a more accurate view of how countries are doing and would more closely align with the implied time scale.
However, another thing you need to pay attention to for such graphs is density, because you can't expect the same growth for really densely populated the Netherlands or Russia, for example.
Scientific method involves experimenting, failing or succeeding, and redoing the experiment, whereas in maths the method stops at the hypothesis stage. We must stop listening to people who assert mathematical models are “the science is in".
"Assuming that you trust the data" is a big issue to skip past so quickly since it relates to the most dramatic shift on the graph. The number of detected cases does not necessarily equal the number of reported cases. I hope the sharp drop of new cases in China is genuine, despite their governments disproportionate predilection for censorship.
i'm guessing he didn't emphasize it because that would lead to the whole comment section focusing on that part and not actually talking about the point of the video.
Funny thing, since they removed all foreign journalists there hasn't been a lot of new cases. Best case scenario, their harsh policies have significally diminished the virus advance. Worst one, they are manipulating the data
Typical "intelligent" academics .. good at the math .. pathetic at real world interaction .. china is outright lying as they always do .. right from the start they lied and covered this up
@@slimshady2777 FACTS: China informed WHO on Dec 31, 2019, four days after several initial cases of "unknown pneumonia" were identified. China has been updating the US government since Jan 3, 2020. On Jan 15, they have acknowledged that this virus is transmissible from people to people after there is enough evidence. Try convince me that is "cover-up".
Cong Li .. actually it is china that has to prove itself .. know liars and murderers (of their own people such as doctors who were trying to aound the alarm)
Slim Shady Well, another fact: the doctor who first sounded the alarm died from COVID19, not murdered. Whoever told you otherwise is a liar. He was indeed scolded and punished by stupid local officials who wanted to avoid the trouble of a big panic. But this mistake was corrected by the central government very soon.
South Korea is a completely different country from China. The success of South Korea in quarantine is thanks to the participation of the people. For example in Korea, everyone uses masks. and without a mask, you cannot use the subway. In addition, quarantine will be conducted for two weeks if you enter from abroad. If there is no problem after 2 weeks, you can come out after a medical check. The COVID-19 virus started in Asia, but don't swear South Korea.
Be aware korea is nothing different than china they are cheating counties! they intentionally reducing and control test cases under goverment and pretend they are fine. It's a huge shame for them 🧐
@@panchohalo2158 if you think their rates are much higher at a full lockdown where military was delivering food and water to families, imagine what the numbers will be like in the USA under a half ass lockdown. This is scary.
@@patrickrandolph132 It's not so much a cure as it is an expedition. After all, you can't really say you "escaped" from a serial killer if you jump into a pit of lava.
Yeah... what a thought... believing that a country that took the right precautions and did exactly what they needed to do to stop a virus whilst also researching and understanding it better actually stopped the virus! What a though?
Do you truly trust any countries' data? The UK has had 60k Covid-19 tests, the US has had 100k tests. The US has 5 times the population of the UK. IDK about that American data, seems fishy.
I am a natural scientist (quantum chemist) and would like to express my greatest appreciation. Boys, keep it up! Greetings from Rhineland-Palatinate, the Tuscany of Germany.
Yifei Zhang Right! Because the Chinese government, notorious for media censorship, can be trusted to report accurate statistics. Tell that to the “missing” reporters. Are you joking or just a complete moron?
I am tracking the data for the USA and the World on a spreadsheet, and I always remove the data from China. Reports coming out of China is showing evidence that they have been hiding the real numbers. There's plenty of news about it from the right and the left. Buzzfeed wrote about China's propaganda about SARS-CoV-2 almost a month ago. National Review and The Atlantic wrote about their coverup. Now reports are coming out about urns sent to Wuhan that are many times more than they should need from the virus if they gave the right numbers
people don’t have as much of a bias towards S Korea compared to China. This partly contributed to the world’s lack of action during January and February. China reported to the WHO in December. The world had two months grace period..S. Korea was pretty much the only country that worked closely with China in terms of border control and trust in data sharing. It shows. Both countries are also the only two so far that did extensive quarantine, testing, and isolation. My parents are in China, my sister is in S Korea. I was initially worried about them, but now they worry about me in the US
@@Autokiller36 Worry about America, China's been honest with the data since December, it was Trump who thought it was a good idea to turn a VIRUS into a political tool.
@@CIinbox ...which is why the same log-log graph but for death would be useful (thanks for the video linky, watching this next) and speaking of death->cases estimations, graph from a neighbouring research group: twitter.com/richardneher/status/1241458447457157127
I came back from China in December 14th of 2019 I was about 8 hours from Wuhan, when I was visiting China. When I got back to the USA my parents got sick and had all the systems of Covid-19 and I joked to my parents that they caught the virus that was going around. They had no idea what I was talking about. Took my parents weeks to recover. They just thought it was a normal flu/bug that was going around. I think this virus has been going around and has been around for awhile. I bet millions of people have already had it without even realizing they had it. I know for a fact that I had COVID-19 in December but nobody cared at the time of December and I never went to the hospital, Millions of unreported cases. Because 90% of the people who have it dont even know they have it.
He is full of it. He is definitely plotting against time. That is the only way he can get those charts. The implication is the total number of cases increases with time. He just superimposes it on the graph as a line. The time factor is just not presented as a consistent linear or log scale. What it really doesn't show in the graph is how rapidly the disease is progressing. A disease that reaches 100K infection in one week vs one year looks like the same graph on his chart since it only counts the total number of cases.
@@ahndeux But his point was do not plot AGAINST time lol which in my understanding means not putting the class intervals representing time on the x axis, right?
@@DonVigaDeFierro "high school calculus." A level calculus is a lot harder than GCSE calculus. And I'm sure it will only get worse as I go into physics at uni. :( (But also no exams :)
The last two years of school maths teach so much important stuff! The worst thing is: the methods of probability you learn aren't even hard. Once you learn them they seem like basic maths and are so important to understand all the misconceptions that literally everyone has. You always here "Only trust the statistic you faked yourself" but you never really know why or what to do about it. If people only learned probability properly they would know that interpreting data correctly is not hard at all. It's really like you're just learning a basic math concept that everyone should understand!
Yes, please do not buy masks made in China. We are hiding at home. We have no ability to produce masks. The masks exported to you are all collected from garbage dumps, and all of them are drooling. Like a blanket for Indians back then, ha ha ha ha, I hope to see your message next month
3:45 Physical distancing! That's the right name cuz social distancing is different. We might be physically miles apart but socially close. And we might be physically a few metres from each other but socially in two different universes.
@@ottomezzetti3939 I think it`s because normally you would go out and visit friends and stuff, but right now you shouldn`t, so you distance yourself socially. But yeah, there really should be another name for just not getting close on a physical level.
can not breeding without pussy... the fact is the risk is about the same as getting hit by a car.. so getting thing back to normal would be piority the vaccine should be ready soon and we just had to get shot every year and wait and see.
This is something I didn't know I needed to see. I'm not saying I'm completely relieved after seeing this video but I have a better understanding of the pandemic now. The clarity has bought some calmness in my turbulent mind and I appreciate the meticulous efforts the creator has put in to show the bigger picture. Thank you Minute Physics!
I don’t know why this gives you calm. This graph shows that only 2 countries (South Korea and China) have SLOWED the spread (not even stopped) and that every other country still has rapid exponential spread of the virus
@@AR-ob7nl This can't be said enough. Why in the world would this give anyone peace of mind? The answer is that despite how informative this video is, it's still over the heads of common lay people. And that's not even necessarily their fault or a shot at their intelligence. There was just too much that *wasn't* said concerning this whole ordeal in this video.
A R AS OF NOW! Thats the part you forget. Like he literally said, its hard to follow this thing accurately because of how fast its going. This is only a question of time. Not about wether we will beat it or not. Because we will. Thats certain
"China" is 1.4 billion people, "US" is 0.33 billion people, "Italy" is 0.06 billion people. They also have dramatically different population densities.
Which is why you plot new cases against total cases. Different population means different numbers, so the data points are meaningless. However, the relations between those data points are what's interesting.
Number of infected is correlated with how the testing program is being organised, and that is hugely different in every country. Total deaths would be a better metric, but even that is variable because people (mostly) aren't dying directly FROM CoVid-19, but death is attributable to some existing health condition, so that depends on how each country is recording the deaths. Even within countries there are vastly different population densities, e.g New York vs North Dakota. It would only make sense to look at it on a regional level. or Urban Vs. Rural perhaps. There's also travel in and out of each urban island - NY would have many more external visitors than Wuhan I would imagine, even if the pop densities were comparable. Yet another other factor is the age demographic in each area - Florida has an older, more at risk population than California. It's a tricky problem with many confounding factors.
In France, we only count the cases who is in or was in hospital. All peoples outside the hospital isn't count like people who stay at home or retirement home...
Really interesting point about how more infections --> more testing ---> more "cases". That helps explain the absolute explosion in the growth rate when the virus starts to become worrying enough that mass testing happens
Only if you're trying to hold onto your narrative that its all a hoax and you're trying to insulate yourself from being really really wrong in your predictions a week or so ago.
Mass testing at a national level did not occur, the capacity for this is non existent. Essentially all testing are risk-assessment based. You can roughly estimate the criteria of admission to test by the ratio of tests done to positive cases. This gives the mean risk of resulting positive for the population that was tested. With 26:1 in S.Korea I estimate that the policy tested people with a mean of 5% risk (I am assuming 70% sensitivity, and the estimation is blatantly rough). With 2,5:1 in Lombardy the policy tested people with more than a 50% risk of being positive. This indicates a lot about how proactive is the effort of identifying "hidden" cases. Or rather (roughly speaking) in S.Korea they were looking for hidden cases, in Lombardy just for confirmation of the already likely diagnosis. This indicates/rates how countries manage the epidemic. No surprise that Italy was forced into a national lock down.
Their death statistics are very suspicious considering a country of 1.3 billion has less than half the deaths of country like Italy of 56 million plus poverty in china is much higher
If China cheat, then their graph will not look like what is shown here. Because they need to lie just the right amount to make it fall within this nicely looking straight line. Think about that. Yes it is possible that the Chinese knows exactly how much lower to report at the right time all the time - but it is very hard to do. And which country do you think can deliver the most effective social quarantine? A democratic govt or Chinese govt. When Chinese govt ordered lock down, no one got out, period (with police and software tracking of individuals).
So don't trust them, that's fine. It's perfectly fine to use this graph and look at just your own country numbers (assuming you trust those) to see if measures are having an impact. You might be missing out on useful information since China is one of only two countries showing a change in trend, so personally I'll use it but with skepticism as I'd rather not miss important information due to paranoia alone
Love how Denmark, Sweden and Norway, each do a little dip in the chart, diverging from the rest...but then continue upward. Being from Denmark myself, I can confirm how there was a public announcement, causing a bit of a scare, that led to an initial panic, followed by a period of nation-wide isolation (as desired). Shopping was SUCH a delight in this time. You'd go into a store and there'd be 2~3 other people, allowing me to get my shopping done in seconds. However, now that a few weeks have passed, people got _"used to"_ or I might even say... _"BORED"_ of the Covid-19 spread and loosened up way too much... Now that I go shopping, the stores a crammed as usual. Old folks, who are ill advised to be leaving the safety of their homes in these times, pushing carts around at 1 meter per minute. Couples, bringing ALL their kids, to clog up the candy, or dairy-isle, to bicker over what flavor yogurt to get and whatnot... That's likely why, the growth has picked up again, in Scandinavia. People got way too relaxed, way too soon, all at the same time, to continue as they've always had and thus, the spread picks up the pace again. 😷
Well, Sweden just test the people in hospitals/the one in the risk group, therefor will we only have a lwoer amount of detected cases aswell. Then it's possible to say " we have it under control" but in reality the goverment is just putting their head in the sand. But today they announced they will start testing more people other than ppl in hospitals & risk group, so maybe it's just gonna come as a huuuge spike now as detected cases in sweden.
The issue is the death increase you see now is from people that got infected 2-3 weeks ago. It takes about a week to acquire symptoms and than it gets more serious to a point where you're forced oxygen and when it gets real bad you lose 80% of your lung capacity and die eventually. So A LOT more people will get infected when they're packed in supermarkets.
The Swedish government isn’t really caring about our people, people in Lomma are going out side to restaurants. The only thing my school did to prevent corona spreading was to let one class after another lot to go inside to get food
Yeah. being forced to work from home is such a tiny thing to do, when this kind of social distancing might be a key element to slowing the spread so hospitals might cope better. I feel bad for those who are becoming victims of the economic repercursions of this pandemic, And I hope their governments do step in and do whatever needs doing to rebuild the economy afterwards. Last night I read that we have the higest unemployment rate since just after ww2. This is really going to strain our social welfare system. probably impacting our taxes in a big way.
Work that can be done remotely should definitely go more in that direction and all school should, in my opinion. Public schools waste billions busing children to and from buildings, every single school day, greatly impacting traffic (at least in my city) and the end result is bullying and drug sales in the halls. Kids might be better off gathering in one home within walking distance, neighborhood by neighborhood and learning remotely. Just my two cents.
@@jmugurr994 wa about other countries, u believe India and other Africa countries are giving the right numbers? There's no hero n villain in real life, it's all interest an politics. Western think they can just blame on Asian, people are not blame, pay of ur white sins first
Please note how the graph is actually not sensitive to different testing or reporting policies. Which implies the remarkable, paradoxical even, conclusion that that assumption is not relevant. No need to trust the data, it gives information anyway. Which is a very good thing, that we are not critically reliant on the quality of the data to make the relevant assessments.
Still waiting for the truth from the US. Test everyone in the US and we will find out if the virus disappears like a miracle in the US as the president suggested.
