What would YOU do with A♠ 3♠ on the river? Your Stack (UTG): 1,900,000 Their Stack (BB): 1,900,000 Pot: 189,500 Board: J♠ 7♠ 3♣ 2♦ 3♥ BB checks A) Bet 50,000 (small) B) Bet 100,000 (medium) C) Bet 200,000 (large) D) Bet … ?
I like option B and bet medium. This is not exactly the scariest board and no flush, or straight got there. We definitely have the effective nuts here, And we do want to get value, but it's hard to imagine he's going to call a large bet. Medium is good enough where he would consider calling with some sort of bluff catcher
D) I'd bet somewhere between 100 and 200, very likely 150,000-175,000 but not exactly either number, so like a 165 or 177. The idea being that I want it to look like I can get away, I want to mentally know I can get away with trips and top kicker, but also betting this amount to get decent value. Much like going for thin value in cash. So, with the Pot being 8BBs, shooting for the 6BB range but an asymmetric number hoping to mess with his mental math and cause a moment where he freaks and just jams a JT or 89 kind of holding.
I like how Romero says "depends on the player". I think a good poker coach should teach players how to identify tendencies and how to play people over playing charts. Because you obviously don't make this raise against a nit who will most certainly fold.
Whatever my balanced play would be, but most likely over pot sized bet. Saw there was 8 bb I'd probably go 12 bb on the river and definitely because the board on the turn is kinda wet.
You dudes are such a good combo. James is so deep into it that he is describing thought processes that I have to listen to 3 or 4 times, and then Johnathan comes in and puts it in laymen's terms and throws in extra questions to James for added perspective, and I end up with a paradigm shift in my poker thinking. Thanks you two!
This method still works! I had 7's, the flop gave me a gut shot straight draw and a back door flush. I check raise the flop, bet turn, and rivered a 7 for a set. I tanked and I remembered this video. I 2x pot and the my opponent snapped call with 2 pairs.
Largely depends on the player as well, if you're playing in a low stakes tournament (buy in < $1,000), most players will not call over-bet on river unless they have 2nd or 3rd nuts.
In most of the mid stakes games i play in i learned that when the obvious draws miss people are calling down almost every time very light just like this example, so exploitatively i am not bluffing and just betting huge when i have it, seems to work very well for me as pretty much no1 has caught on even tho they play with me every week which is pretty insane to me....
I think a 2.5x overbet at least on the river makes a lot of sense. We don't have a lot of 3's in our range and have a number of bluffs that might want to bet. I think going smaller than 2.5x is leaving too much value on the table but I'm not sure if you should go much bigger than 2.5x
As Ice Cube used to say, check your solver before you wreck your solver! Also, 2x on the river for me, because most players simply won't give you credit for a 3.
c) 200k overbet. I want it to look like a busted flush draw (which it was) bluff and get max value from a jack or a hero call from a 7 or other medium pocket pairs (Ts, 9s, 8s, 6s, etc). If we go any larger then 7's and medium pocket pairs start to fold out.
I think the villian blocking flush/straight draws could be a good thing on the river! Alot of the flush/straight draws would have kept barreling the turn, leaving heros river range with more junk that would like to over bet. Do you agree with that logic JL?
That's pretty reasonable! The only issue is that a lot of people will check back hands like A8ss/Q8ss/T8ss because they just want to realize their equity (and never get raised off of their hand)
Thank you! It was useful. So, making conclusions as a defending side, should I convince myself again, that people bluff on most of the rivers VERY RARELY in any kind of an important stage or a tournament itself? - Especially using BIG sizes. And when I face a river bet bigger than around 3/4 of the pot (not to mention when I get raised on the river) => there will be a value hand around 80-90% of the time, huh?
It depends on the spot. Some spots are a lot easier to have bluffs than others. I think in general, when you see a bit of an unusual line using huge bets on the river, the average player will be weighted towards value hands.
First, I would have bet the turn. If a flush hits, not getting paid if you feel he has a J or 7 unless he has a set which he is check-raising. As for my river bet, I'd go on the larger size.
Yeah…to a thinking player the paired low river looks like the perfect bluff card given small flop, check turn. That said villain should know this and know that he knows this ;-). What if that river was a 6h? Def got to know the opponent as best as you can in these spots.
I would bet big because the title of the video is "when to bet huge' 🤣🤣🤣 Without the "coaching" I would have make a 2/3 - 3/4 pot to make sure to get called by a pair of 7s or Js or a pocket pair between 8s and 10s
Villain either has a marginal made hand or air that he didn't bluff (or maaaaybe occasionally a trap, but most of these raise flop). Against his air it doesn't matter how big we bet, and against his traps we want to limit damage by not going obscenely big (say no more than 1.5 or 2x pot) but I think an overbet is ideal here to put his marginal made hands in the toughest spot. We won't get credit for having a strong hand here hardly ever, as we shouldn't. So go for the max with tricky trips, say 12bb.
Pot or maybe even overbet. We're losing only to JJ, 77 and 22, and all of these would have bet or raised by now. So if the opponent has complete air, they will fold to any value bet size. But if they has something - a jack, a 7, AK, AQ, AJ or similar, or even just A high, they might decide we're trying to steal, and will look us up. Pot or overbet secures max value in this case, because we have the nuts or we have air.
In spots like this I ask: does my opponent understand that I am fully polarised and will be overbetting with a balanced range? If so, we can bet enormous. 3x pot is fine. Most small stakes opponents don't understand about polarisation and overbets, however. Against these players I prefer to use an ordinary size that can be called by most top pairs.
I would bet small, but I play at the lowest stakes but I see quite a few players going crazy with check-raises when the river busts an obvious draw or pairs the board. It seems to be more of an exploitative strategy - if the playerbase won't call overbets with bluff-catcher type hands then you need more bluffs here and more value hands at smaller sizings. I guess you make the assumption that J7, two spades or a set would raise the flop so the villain has very few hands stronger than a random jack, 88-TT with a 7 being the bottom of his flop calling range?
6:09 I'm guessing I'm supposed to Use HUGE VALUE BETS to my ADVANTAGE. But I could see myself doing that at the table. If he had a spade draw or a gutshot, he can't call any bet so no need to try to milk those. I shouldn't have many 3s in my PF range, and no sets check the turn. So a big bet looks very suspicious. My only question is: would we really ever bluff big here? I don't think I would. I'd bet smallish to get unpaired hands that might beat my zero showdown value hands to fold.
see sir now i am playing fantastic poker now i am plying like pro but one problem is there that is i get afraid of ITM and Bubble i make wrong bet etc play with poor ranger cards or raise to take blinds etc 2) I get top in few minutes but i cannot hold my position this to r big problems for me tip ;
Hi Jonathan, when you asked the question about the river bet, I opted for an over pot size bet, but then the asked myself, how can I be sure that the opponent does not have a set(pocket 77's to be specific)?
Hmm you would like to extract a lot of value here. But what are you targeting? How many jacks does he have? Would they raise your flop bet? Would they check the turn? And then check the river? Nahhh. Which means you are really value targeting a 7. So how much does a 7 call? I think he can call pot for 8 BB. You are going to have bluffs like T9ss, 98ss, KTss. But maybe he will call more than pot since it’s so small. Why not 12 BB? D. I go 12 BB. [edit: oops, too small!🤣]
Honestly the table I play at is very soft and if I bet double pot they will put me on a bluff and fold anyway so I'm forced to mix in smaller bluffs and smaller value bets in order to get paid of on the river. But at the same time I can make a 3x pot bet on the flop and get called by every gunshot and bottom pair. So I'm honestly not sure how to apply what I learned in the video to my game
Hahaha, solver just say to rip it? I like pot, get calls from all of his 7's, pretty simple, I guess you could go like 200+% to get all his j's and possibly if he has a worse 3. What's nice is we have plenty of bluffs in this spot all missed spades so in theory we can go...nuts.
lol hero call with the 87 on the 200% pot bet, close spot, in my stakes if im in the BB, that's a snap fold, but these are better players. I'd bet it's close to even.
To the villain is looks like you had a busted flush. There’s only one hand that crushes the villain and guess what that’s what you have! Put in an over bet and hopefully he has a J. I’d bet $225-250. I guess you could shove all in but what’s going to call?
