I originally made these predictions in late November, so they may become reality (the ceasefire ending) or unreality by the time you watch the video. I ALSO predict that you'll join my Patreon, www.patreon.com/WhatWhyHow and my Discord to vote on the next video: discord.com/invite/XB7MWEemeW
Enjoy your content! I was surprised this didn’t mention Secretary Blinken’s red lines to Israel, which include a No to Israeli re-occupation, or the possibility of an UN interim administration of sorts in Gaza to substitute for an Israeli occupation done by peacekeepers of a country not despised by Gazans.
The fact this sand conflict has somehow also spilt into the west is prosperous, guess it serves the west right for moving in the same sand people they've being trying to crusade out for the past millennia
Smotrich's Party has also tanked in the polls since October 7th (they are in coalition with Netanyahu) so him taking power is quite unlikely. Based on current polling by far the most likely result of the next election is a coalition of NU, Yesh Atid, and YB (a small, secular but economically conservative party), though they might also require support from the left-wing Meretz Party.
The most likely outcome in my opinion is that the would give back Gaza to the PA. There are many signs that the people in Gaza don't see Hamas and their allies in the same light as when they voted for them in 2006. PA would be disliked but tolerated for the time being, meanwhile The center-right government will probably transfer the control of some of the Area c in the West Bank to the PA, this is the most likely option since it will only require the destruction of the most untenable of the settlements, may allow Israel to keep the Jordanian valley for the time being but on the other hand it would provide the territories under PA with some form of territorial continuity instead of them being a Palestinian archipelago. As for Jerusalem I doubt it would be divided between Israel and PA for many reasons but perhaps the old city would be relinquished as some form of an international territory, this would be appealing to Jews too since under this condition they may be able to pray again at the site.
well I can say path 1 of no more ceasefire was taken also there is only one way this all ends in peace one side must leave thats just the sad truth of this conflict and moderate groups in Palestine are not very popular among the Palestinian people as most of those work with Israel to some extent
@@jafarafidah8813 The reason I say this is not only cause the Ayatollah is super old. Even then he can live past 2030 potentially (although the chances of him dying are not small) but also because of the mass discontent with the government and the desire among the majority (at least according to some indicators) that they want the regime replaced.
@@seto_kaiba_ when imam Khamenei dies he will just get replaced by a successor by the elected body of the Masjids no collapse will happen or anything like that. Also what do you mean with most iranians? Literally all iranians who live abroad hate the government yet never have set foot in their country. You saw many political issues in the country but the security services of the country are good enough to deal with these outside funded oppositions.
@@jafarafidah8813 Very convenient to blame the what seven years of roaring protests--most of which quickly devolve into explicitly anti-regime movements regardless of the issue at hand. This obviously is not just Iranians outside of the country. And yes, Khamenei is supposed to be replaced but that window of replacement is the time in which most dictatorial regimes are at their least stable.
@@seto_kaiba_ the 7 year raging protests? You mean the one last year which was all about the Iranian Healthcare system and police brutality that later turned into a violent mob that wanted to overthrow the government and attacked police units and imams? Yeah definitely had 0 outside involvement plus none of these protests achieved anything since the Iranian security forces could hijack the leaders of them. I think you are genuinely backwards because iran isn't as bad as it once was in 2017 nowadays iran has the lowest amount of unemployment in recent history and there is for most of the people no need to overthrow the government and to replace it with another foreign one that has no connection to their country and harbor only the interests of the zionists and the west
@@wildviper Frankly, aside from the bad predictions, your "options" were operating within the Zionist framework. A two-state solution is completely unethical because it's like saying a Settler-Colonial lebensraum is somehow "justified" just because a western dominated UN said so in 1947 with a completely abhorrent partition. You focused a lot on Hamas needing to be dismantled presumably because of october 7 (this is a literal zionist talking point by the way), but very little on everything the Zionist regime had done just on 2023 alone yet alone prior. I get that wasn't the focus of the essay necessarily, but that context is crucially important, because we live in a Zionist disinformation climate that constantly wants to put the Onus of history entirely on the Palestinians, if not just pretend October 7 is all that matters. It's important to fight back against Zionist Mythology in the same way it's important to fight back against Nazi Mythology. You fought back against a Neo-Nazi "historian" which I'm happy about, but you should be treating Zionist ideology as being a twin to Nazi Ideology. Also, you have to be extremely careful to sound like you're not both-siding a fundamentally oppressive regime built on the bones of the Nakba Genocide and Ethnic Cleansing. Even if the resistance to that oppression of the Zionist Regime does bad things and kills innocent people in response to the brutality, the fact is that the Oppression is far worse and created the conditions that call for resistance in the first place. The Onus should primarily be on the oppressor, not the oppressed. I can grant that killing innocent civilians should always be condemned, even if it's a resistance group, but the act of resistance itself should never be condemned. The issue is that you framed much of your video as though Hamas should be "dismantled", but somehow fail to even consider the dismantlement of the far more terroristic Zionist Regime in itself. During the Nazi regime, Jewish people killed racist German civilians during who weren't "in uniform" even before the death camps, but we don't say "both the Jews and Germans did bad things", because that would be deeply insulting to the fact that the Jews were mass persecuted against in the first place, just like the palestinians have for *OVER A CENTURY OF ZIONISM* , never mind just the 76 years of the Zionist State by itself. When it comes to Nazi Germany, Historians and commenters rightly put the focus on the Oppression of the Nazi state itself that caused such violent reactions from the marginalized and persecuted communities, even while recognizing it wasn't always perfect. I believe that fighting against the institutions of an oppressive regime is always justified, so I believe any military installations hamas attacked on October 7 was entirely justified, just not going into the Kibbutz or the Concert. However, even then, Israel shelled homes indiscriminately, killing hundreds of their own civilians and then blaming it on hamas.
I'm still halfway through but looks like he predicted everything correctly, except for the fact that the IDF would suffer high casualties during the insurgency phase, which turned out false, we even stated this would last into 2024
