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So, very interesting thing happening: Not only can I not join through the link, I also can't find it through the discoverable servers search function So basically, according to Discord, this server doesn't exist?
Before 2034 I don't see major changes happening in Russia or China just because their momentum; Putin's successors and Xi's successors will probably keep the countries on mostly similar paths. I don't see them collapsing either, since while they do have problems you need MAJOR issues to collapse as a country@@dylans0630
Agreed. It's why with regard to a prediction, a wrong one wouldn't render as much egg on face if one does not state it as if the oracle of Delphi kind of bravado. One would only need to caveat that the prediction assumes line go certain way with not attempt to shift line.
Y'all know we're talking about PREDICTING THE FUTURE right? The infamously magical non-real superpower? No one has ever successfully predicted anything except by chance, and all "historical models" that claim to predict the future should be disregarded as political jerkery.
My biggest gripe is how he handles the world war 3. We have seen that if anything trench warfare is the future of war. Even with superior technology a war against future rivals will likely devolve into a complete fight of attrition. The only modern technology which may take away the edge of trench warfare is drone technology, however, it’s still too early to tell.
Trench warfare in Ukraine has more to do with neither side having air superiority, which a war involving America will not see. The closest that we could see to America failing to active that is with China, and any Sino-American war will be a naval one primarily.
@@baneofbanes I’m not sure you understand fully how many more men China has to draw from in the case of a total war. On paper they have 4x more men to draw from and in reality it’s likely a far higher percentage as the army has already predicted a lot of Gen Z is simply unable to fight due to mental and physical health problems. While it is true we will have air superiority a land war in Asia is simply a nightmare. Our best bet is blockading China until it simply breaks… yet again that would be a horrifically long war of attrition. What must be noted too is that China has somewhat sophisticated air defenses and all of our air power will be coming in from long distance bases or relatively small Super carriers. This will not be Iraq. China has more cities larger than ANY city in the US than one could reasonably count. Furthermore their production would instantly be shifted to create anti air and millions of cheap drones which would keep our navy away from their shores. We would have air superiority but it would be far less effective than what we had in Iraq.
@@baneofbanes If anything born out of that conflict, it's best to know that no fresh basic field entrenchment alone would stem off waves of not so regular Chinese infantry waves, backed by a supporting elements of ground and air, manned or remote controlled, vehicles I dread of seeing how foreign militaries from the Pacific would detail plans of sea and air-borne amphibious & paradrop offensives in the rugged and open terrains of Chinese geography, if they now have sophisticated technologies and economies to somehow possibly outpace the Second Sino-Japanese War's Japanese offensive campaigns
>Estonia occupies St. Petersburg Yes, a country with population of 1.2M occupies a city with population of 4.8M (2010 census) with surrounding metro region of 1.8M, that's a thing that can happen Honestly if it was, something along the lines of "St. Petersburg with surrounding Leningrad region becomes 5th southeast Baltic state" (4th obviously Kaliningrad) that would at least sound plausible Even if it would happen, lets say St. Petersburg was desperate for any help. Then what? Having 4/5 of your population with limited civil rights? Giving them full civil rights and becoming essentially a Russian state with Estonian minority?
SPb now even has 5.3 million and 2 million around. I live here my whole life. Plus Estonia hasn't been hostile and didn't want to occupy the area, like, ever...
My honest prediction for how Europe's borders will change in the next 20 years: - Moldova will unite with Romania - Belarus will unite with Russia - Scotland and Catalonia will become independent - Northern Ireland will reunite with Ireland
@@wildviper Even now, Russia and Azerbaijan aren't really close--even though Armenia doesn't really like Russia much anymore. Azerbaijan is still a strong Turkish ally and the Caucus wars is kind of an L for Russia too.
You already know that in The Decade of Fire 3 (by Paradox Interactive) they gonna make “The End of the United Nations” and “Germany at War Again” be news flashes 😂😂😂
Comment for the algorithm gods! Also love uour content man, i started with the debunking of alt history and ive been loving your videos since. Keep it up man.
Brilliant video! I envy your video editing skills, maybe one day I will be as good as you. But until then I hope your channel grows and gains the subscribers it deserves!
Honestly the whole war section would make for a great background for a movie or videogame, but on a more serious notes, most of his predictions sound like he read too much history and didn't bother understanding that the world has changed since the Cold War, the whole Turkey predictions sounded like it wouldn't be out of place in a history book about the Ottoman Empire.
Tbh, I think so many of the world's geopolitical issues are a result of the Cold War lasting so long that nobody (especially the boomers occupying every important office) has been able to properly adjust their thinking.
Read this book a few years ago and thought it was really interesting. Obviously he got some things laughably wrong in hindsight but it takes a lot of guts to put your reputation on the line trying to predict things like this. Remember for example that even a lot of Western experts thought UA would quickly crumble when RU invaded.
Please make a video* on what if the Bronze Age Collapse never happened? Specifically focusing on how this even not occurring would have affected the Celts, Germanic Peoples in particular the Nordic Bronze Age* Culture who had close trade links with Mycenaean Greece interestingly enough, the Etruscans, Italic Peoples, Slavs, Elam, Egypt, Assyria, the Hittites, the Caucasus, Dilmun, Magan, Nubia/Kush, Lybia, Urartu*, Saba in Yemen and the Land of Punt*.
As someone who has been predicting the future since as teenager since the book came out. You really finally the put words on why I think it’s wrong. The major powers today are likely to be major powers in 20-50 years from now. I still see the U.S as the top dog even in a multipolar world. China fights and loses a war against America and allies but survives as a major power licking its wounds with a new government. But I have made some changes over time. I typically make European Union become a federal state typically before the mid-century mark and most of the “global south” remaining poor compared to the “1st World”. Being two of the biggest changes. I’m surprised the book also does not seem to mention India and I can totally see India becoming the new China as an America’s rival in the later half of this century. I am also more bullish on Nigeria than most people as well. I think they will be Africa’s first great power and actually allied to “The West”.
@wildviper My unoffical headcannon is 2030s: America politically stabilizes under strong liberal governments. China started a war for Taiwan with Pakistan and maybe North Korea as allies and America and its Asian allies win it. The EU stagnates under "National conservative" governments, but Pan-Europeanism as an idea remains strong. Russia starts a terminal downward spiral. 2040s: India becomes a 2nd tier superpower as China has a new civil war as the CCP collapses under interal pressures. A new strongman re-emergences in Russia, who is Pro-American. The Middle East sees its own "Great War" as America begins to fully withdraw from the region. Prehaps resulting in a non-win nuclear war scenario with a few dozen weapons used. 2050s: The EU swings back towards Liberalism and federalism as a new Atlantic alliance competing with a new Indian nationalist bloc of mainly former 3rd world countries. China reunites under a more moderate verison of its current government. But abandoning Marxism for Chinese nationalism. A new Cold War stars, but the West is now left wing, and the East is right wing.
50 predictions::: 1) US will become like Brazil (unequal and corrupt) 2) EU will become like North Africa (unequal and corrupt) 3) US tax burdens will increase and companies will flee to islands for lower taxes forcing the US to cut its military spending 4) Israel will become an empire in its region and force the Arabs out of their lands 5) Arab countries will become more liberal 6) Russia will collapse and/or become part of China 7) UK/Canada/Australia will become defacto colonies of India 8) India will become an global superpower because of its English language (an advantage China does not have) 9) Africa and Latin America will stagnate like they always have 10) China will be a big Japan but not globalist because they don't speak the English language 11) American culture/civilization will become stronger 12) Nobody will know what is true or what is false 13) There will be the rich and everyone else 14) AI will take all the high IQ jobs and India will do the rest 15) Everyone will live on welfare and be hedonistic (communism of consumption vs communism of production) 16) There will be a return to religion in response to the hedonism and many new cults will form 17) EU will expand and it along with India will challenge the US with soft power 18) UK will rejoin the EU 19) Everyone will become dumber like the movie Idiocracy but not as bad 20) Central Asia and Eastern Russia will become part of China 21) Turkey and Poland will stay as they are now (ie not in conflict with each other) 22) Political correctness will collapse 23) The cities will collapse and become like Detroit/Philly 24) People will seek real world connections with each other because they won't know what is AI and what is not 25) There will be nuclear proliferation and the threat will come from small powers not large powers who have too much to lose 26) All economic activity will concentrate around a few cities in the world and the rest will be ghettos 27) SEA will grow 28) The US will lose a major naval battle which will cost it much prestige 29) There will become some kind of UN CBDC world currency or Bitcoin will become that currency (Bitcoin will go to $1 million per Bitcoin in current dollars) 30) Everyone will spend their time inside augmented reality 31) People will freeze their brains because they no longer believe in the afterlife 32) There will be a movement for people to move back to the countryside 33) Warfare will revolve around automated drones and loiter munitions 34) What's left of Russia will continue backing right wing politics in the West and China will begin to back left wing politics in the West 35) There may be a civil war in the west but this will fail 36) North Korea will join south Korea 37) Homeless will be solved with automatic construction methods 38) The US will get universal healthcare but it will be Cuba tier healthcare 39) There will be a great amount of inflation 40) The US stock market will stagnate since it is 90% intangible assets and within 15 years it will be 95% intangible assets 41) Chinese companies will become the strongest in the world like Japanese companies in the 1980s 42) Global warming still won't have done anything serious 43) People's health will decline 44) Objectivity/science/rationalism will decline we will become a post-truth and post-rational society 45) People will upload their brains to computers after they die but this will turn into an unliving hell for these people (like the Xmas episode of Black Mirror) 46) Elites will plot an alien invasion or second coming of Jesus 47) There will be a Civil Cold War in the West 48) China will not invade Taiwan 49) Russia will pull out of Ukraine 50) There will be a recession soon (yield spreads negative, unemployment lowest before it peaks, fedfunds high, many more indicators which I forget)
Dude went from a somewhat reasonable Russian domination from a 2000s view straight to off the rocker Ottoman empire 2 electric boogaloo and Japan doing pearl harbor again
I think many people have the old USSR in mind when they predict the future of American rivals. Disintegration and Balkanization seems to be the default prediction/"fantasy."
I believe Japan has a lot of power both economically and militarily, but it lacks the capability to transmit its power abroad, at least militarily. Its not gonna go out invading other countries, best they could probably do is Korea since they're right across the channel, but they'd likely rely on regular supply chains.
I notice three more incorrect presumptions which I don't see mentioned in other comments (or in the video) 1) This assumes that nativism will not rebound, or that immigration will not be halted or ceased. There is a presumption that modernity and globalism is here to stay, though one can make the argument that it's been on the regression (at least in America) since the days of Ronald Reagan. We do see the Islamic world and China fighting back against modernity as well, which he mentions. But he fails to mention the First world and much of the Third world doing the same. 2) This assumes that as America collapses, that our desire civic patriotism will remain strong. America will not be monoethnic, but this book (and video) assumes America will remain whole AND that the people will remain pro-democracy. (As a New Yorker, I personally hope we have a leader take charge authoritatively, not elected politicians, in order to prevent our inevitable collapse into warring states). 3) This assumes technology is constantly progressing. As of now, we see that collapsing population and a culture of consumerism is actually creating stagflation in every single country, not just the first world. Friedman really was way ahead of his time, but his presumption of these three variables creates a lot more issues with his predictions than we may realize.
I doubt they that Turkey could just occupy Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman and Morocco that easily. As they all have difficult terrains. Morocco and Yemen are Mountainous like Iran while Saudi Arabia and Oman are inhospitable deserts.
Stratfor was called the 'shadow CIA'. It should be assumed that, in his book, Friedman described what he would want to happen *for America*. Notice he assumes the EU breaks up as well.
America's problem is that we don't like to listen to each other as equals and only listen out of personal self-interest or those we deem worthy because of some mutual regard that sounds correct without taking the effort to listen to it out loud. Also, for the record, I do listen to everyone, but I do make a reasonable choice to not agree with others when it is obvious they don't want to be reasonable with me and only in that regard do I not agree with them. I do take a conscious effort to go back to the information that is given to me and analyze it in absentia of its source to see if it holds merit as I do believe there is no such thing as information without value.
The moment you predict future based on the now in specific terms, you've already lost - Ukraine was the best example of this, how it was in the 2000's into the early 2010's is about as far as one can imagine from where we are now, as covered. It is funny that the general trend "Russia may turn out to be a paper tiger" has largely come true, though, a point in favour of more general predictions I expect. The end result over the minutiae that get you there isn't necessarily as helpful in many ways, but is often more accurate.
8:05 This is kinda wrong and I honestly thought it was a bit insulting, Kazakhstan openly disapproved the war in Ukraine, refused to recognize parts of Ukraine as Russian territory after Russia 'annexed' them and even seized assets from Russia such as a spaceport. Kazakhstan may appease Russia in order to keep itself safe, but they are not Pro Russia by any means and have stronger ties with both Turkey and China
The way he skips over Africa entirely. Africa will be the key player in the next decades as the rest of the world will face recession caused by their aging populations and failing business models that mostly rely on the exploitation of Africa.
I very much liked your video and I agree that Friedman got plenty wrong but I gotta say you might be too critical especially because you aknowledged that he is late on his US turmoil prediction but fail to consider that the China-Russia predictions (collapse) are simply early. Predicting events is impossibly hard, predicting them totally accurate is impossible. I also like how he thinks outside the box and might spot trends that no one could see coming. I can see Japan for example forcing collapsed chinese states into trade agrreements and EU like bonds by bullying them with trade and ressource access (not war) and then getting into diplomatic struggles with the US over this unfair protectionism.
I'll disagree with the "overestimating" Russia and your point that Ukraine war showed Moscow military weakness, especially giving their current successful offensive and that Moscow managed to stand pretty good against all the sanctions and overhelming support of Kyiv from the West for the last three years. I think the main problem with Friedman and many other analytics is that they most of the times completly ignore "small guys" by thinking they will just stand still and wait when the rising neighbor will consume them. Like, what kind of sane society while KNOWING they will become pray in the future WILL NOT prepare themselves against such scenario? Ukraine for example spent seven years after 2014 to get their defence forces in shape for exact posibility of Russian invasion, those why they manage to slow down Russian troops in the first weeks of the war until western support and weapons stockpiles start to arrive. Its not like that Russia was overestimated, its just that everyone completly underestimated Ukraine capabilities to defend themselves and didn't even consider to think much about them.
A successful mitkiary offensive that includes the Russians taking a few towns and suffering heavy cautious in doing so, all while fighting a far weaker neighbor. Yah Russia is totally a military “power” lol.
@@baneofbanes I'm sorry, the whole American military industrial complex work for their support, they constantly receive spy intelligence from the other nations, some European countries sent them their entire military stocks. They recieve far more support than any other nation on this planet right now!
I don’t get what’s SO horrible about china’s depopulation. I know they’ll lose a lot of people but still they’ have a population of 800 million or something.
33:35 in my opinion, I think the southwest is becoming more like Rome and Germany, but people often misinterpret what that region's identity was. Germanics were pro-Roman and tried to keep Rome alive and only partitioned it when they realized just how weak and decrepit it was. This is why Western Civilization is latin, germanic, and christian in culture. The other thing these people always forget is that northern Mexico is viewed as extremely American in the eyes of Mexicans. It's more individualist, more freedom-obsessed, has a frontier mentality, is wealthier, has a large white European minority group, and mythologizes a past revolution. The Southwest and North Mexico need to be viewed as a contiguous entity with a greater identity in itself rather than American vs Mexican binary as its culture, geography, demographics, and identity are more consistent in itself rather than the US or Mexico.
Think you're being a tad harsh on Friedman. Of course the details are going to be wrong but in broad brush strokes he predicted quite a lot. My quick review by country would be: Russia 7/10 - the crisis happened about 1,000km east of where he thought it would, but we are absolutely seeing a violent Russian resurgence driven by fear of its long term decline. Putin was certainly attempting to redraw the geopolitical map like Friedman predicted. Most analysts thought he'd be in Kiev in a week. That their army had been hollowed out by corruption was a shock even to Moscow. Then when Wagner started their uprising last year the world watched with bated breath - would this be the start of another broad Russian collapse? Yeah things kinda fizzled out, but the potential is still there. I really wonder how long a post-Putin Russia would last. China 3/10 - I agree things here haven't seriously progressed at all as he predicted. Yes growth has slowed from double digits to 4-5% annually, and we saw pretty big protests in Hong Kong and later on the mainland over Covid, not to mention the property crisis, but clearly these haven't been fatal to the regime. Xi Jinping has solidified his grip into probably the strongest leader since Mao. More likely than a collapse is a proper military confrontation over Taiwan in the next decade or so - though of course it could be precisely this event that causes such a schism. Overall, I give him a low score, but we're just not far along enough to know yet. Japan 4/10 - similar here, yes they are finally rearming their navy but this is with US cooperation in response to China. Their demographic situation is also one of the worst in the world. Even with a Chinese collapse its hard to see Japan all that resurgent. I suppose they could go full Handmaid's Tale to bring the birth rate back up or start importing millions of workers from SEA, but neither seems all that likely. By 2050 they'll be the world's largest retirement home, not a superpower. Korea is headed the same way (the North actually has more stable demographics lol!) Turkey 8/10 - things are coming along pretty well here. Turkish troops were already in Cyprus in 2009, now they also occupy parts of Syria, regularly bomb the Kurds in Iraq and have bases in 7 other countries. Their economy has taken a few stumbles but their overall demographics and trajectory still look pretty good, especially compared to most of their neighbors. Friedman didn't directly predict the Arab spring but he was right to say the Arabs were internally weak and are still easy prey to be taken over by some outside power. Turkey = superpower by 2050 is not a certainty but they are best poised to become the new powerbrokers in the region as the US withdraws post-War on Terror Poland 5/10 - not too much to say here. Their GDP growth is coming along nicely and they now have the highest % of GDP military spending in NATO, but long term it is hard to see them surpassing France or Germany in influence. Those countries still have growing populations (even if mostly through immigration) while Poland will struggle to attract many even if they want them. If Russia does collapse they may very well swallow up Kaliningrad and expand their influence east. A NATO collapse looks less and less likely so they've no reason yet to run off on their own, but again, its still early in the century. P.S. Have you considered making your own 'next 100yrs' prediction video?
i don't understand why you treat some problem A as a gigantic deal for china but just glosses over it in america. take the demographic crisis for example, for china you regard it as THE problem responsible for forcing china into remaining a regional power only, but for america ???
@@wildviper and why not china's? Hell, why not the opposite, why isn't china the main country whose solution to the demographic crisis is immigration? I bet the poor Laos workers who have to tend to the fields carefuly everyday to not get blown up by some american unexploded bomb would gladly go to china work there, also china deals much harshly with security issues, including the violence comming from international immigrants, something lacking in the US right now
@@wildviper when you are the richest country in the continent with the biggest army, 500 nukes and utter disregard for human rights i bet a few workers are not stopping you
There is no way this guy who is supposed to be great for geopolitical analysis into the future predicted this stuff. I mean I believe Russian and China certainly aren’t going to last at their positions but expect complete collapse that fast and then rolling dice that say 3 random countries in a semi-advantageous position for a possible collapse of these countries start to dominate.
50 predictions::: 1) US will become like Brazil (unequal and corrupt) 2) EU will become like North Africa (unequal and corrupt) 3) US tax burdens will increase and companies will flee to islands for lower taxes forcing the US to cut its military spending 4) Israel will become an empire in its region and force the Arabs out of their lands 5) Arab countries will become more liberal 6) Russia will collapse and/or become part of China 7) UK/Canada/Australia will become defacto colonies of India 8) India will become an global superpower because of its English language (an advantage China does not have) 9) Africa and Latin America will stagnate like they always have 10) China will be a big Japan but not globalist because they don't speak the English language 11) American culture/civilization will become stronger 12) Nobody will know what is true or what is false 13) There will be the rich and everyone else 14) AI will take all the high IQ jobs and India will do the rest 15) Everyone will live on welfare and be hedonistic (communism of consumption vs communism of production) 16) There will be a return to religion in response to the hedonism and many new cults will form 17) EU will expand and it along with India will challenge the US with soft power 18) UK will rejoin the EU 19) Everyone will become dumber like the movie Idiocracy but not as bad 20) Central Asia and Eastern Russia will become part of China 21) Turkey and Poland will stay as they are now (ie not in conflict with each other) 22) Political correctness will collapse 23) The cities will collapse and become like Detroit/Philly 24) People will seek real world connections with each other because they won't know what is AI and what is not 25) There will be nuclear proliferation and the threat will come from small powers not large powers who have too much to lose 26) All economic activity will concentrate around a few cities in the world and the rest will be ghettos 27) SEA will grow 28) The US will lose a major naval battle which will cost it much prestige 29) There will become some kind of UN CBDC world currency or Bitcoin will become that currency (Bitcoin will go to $1 million per Bitcoin in current dollars) 30) Everyone will spend their time inside augmented reality 31) People will freeze their brains because they no longer believe in the afterlife 32) There will be a movement for people to move back to the countryside 33) Warfare will revolve around automated drones and loiter munitions 34) What's left of Russia will continue backing right wing politics in the West and China will begin to back left wing politics in the West 35) There may be a civil war in the west but this will fail 36) North Korea will join south Korea 37) Homeless will be solved with automatic construction methods 38) The US will get universal healthcare but it will be Cuba tier healthcare 39) There will be a great amount of inflation 40) The US stock market will stagnate since it is 90% intangible assets and within 15 years it will be 95% intangible assets 41) Chinese companies will become the strongest in the world like Japanese companies in the 1980s 42) Global warming still won't have done anything serious 43) People's health will decline 44) Objectivity/science/rationalism will decline we will become a post-truth and post-rational society 45) People will upload their brains to computers after they die but this will turn into an unliving hell for these people (like the Xmas episode of Black Mirror) 46) Elites will plot an alien invasion or second coming of Jesus 47) There will be a Civil Cold War in the West 48) China will not invade Taiwan 49) Russia will pull out of Ukraine 50) There will be a recession soon (yield spreads negative, unemployment lowest before it peaks, fedfunds high, many more indicators which I forget)
