Looks like we're seeing IV settle around 279.55% indicating an expansion over the current platform expected move. Based on a 279.55% IV with 5DTE and stock at $28.7 that yields a range of +/-$9.39.
Roaring Kitty did exercise some and cash settled the rest. He increased his position by 4 million shares on thursday and then options settle T+1 BUT its really T+2 because options market maker can wait until the market open on T+2 to actually deliver. So T+1 (really T+2) would be exercised on thursday (T+0) then friday is T+1) and then monday morning market open is still T+1 (by how the rules are defined ) which is really T+2 = mandatory delivery. Hence why options IV is increasing because market is pricing in the delivery of the 4 million shares into Roaring Kitty's account.
@@phtephenjumptoconclusionsq3504 he might’ve! There’s no way to actually tell if he exercised or not, actually did an entire video diving into that. Roaring Kitty GME Options Update ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-YtZRjmZm8xY.html
IMO option market is pricing in FTD data being released monday morning. The powers that set iv option pricing likely already know the data is going to have a high amount of FTDs. Spoiler alert, price could go boom
Great video, had a question pop in my head while watching. Is there any historical data around prior shareholder meetings that would indicate whether this kind of action has happened before on GME or if it is exclusive to this year?
Thank you for this. I am new with options, not a big gambler. I just like to mess around with a grand or so, so ive been buying out of the money options and so far have lost a couple of them. I have 3 right now, one with AMC 20 calls a couple months out, two with GME jan 25 and 1 with PANW at 420.00 lol so not great so far.
IV can (and does) move over the weekend for different reasons, but the market is pretty good at pricing weekends. if we knew IV rose over each weekend while markets are closed, there'd actually be an arb opportunity there. The primary cases we'd see a meaningful move of IV over a weekend would be is there was a massive change in vol expectation - aka if a war started (which would be systemic) or if the CEO of a company did something absolutely wild (which would be non-systemic). In this case, it seems to be a bit of a multi-factor scenario. I see oscillation from there being super high IV with a big week anticipated ahead. I'm assuming the platform hasn't updated the EM calculation, it should be around $9 by now.
I think everyone in the comments are putting on too thick of rose colored glasses. Remember this high IV doesn't mean "it will go up" it means the stock is expected to move MASSIVELY. We just diluted our shares by a lot and had a huge call option chain dry up. Situations like this are why buying shares in the long run can be more important than options. Expect to buy the dip Monday, and if its green great, you have shares. Dont get greedy guys.
yep! i've reviewed the cashless exercise prospects for the trade in a previous video. my best assessment still is option sale then share purchase but there's no definitive way to tell. doesn't really impact anything anyways with the move to T+1
I bought 5 contracts(0.46) of ADBE way OTM the day of ER, it went up 75$ O.N -26%iv- doubled my money but got greedy and still holding ... drum roll please
Could’ve exercised ?? Is this video a week behind? It was already reported he did exercise. Sold 80K of those calls. Exercised 40K. Purchased and held another 4M shares. So he’s sitting at 9M now. Or am I missing something??
Nope! shot this one this AM. the fact is we don't actually know and cannot confirm if he exercised or not. we know he has 9M shares. but how he got there is unclear: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-6CGcvPIONZs.html there are pros and cons to both exercising and selling the options and buying the shares, in general effect it's negligible with T+1 for both scenarios.
it would've been strike + premium in the platform most likely, so it technically would've raised the basis but i still don't think it explains it. here's a video diving deep into the exit scenarios: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-YtZRjmZm8xY.html
@@jasonkretzer9642 hey man, great question. So his options were actually pretty deep ITM, so the theta decay wouldn’t have been terrible IF they stayed really far ITM. If GME started moving against him, he could start losing a ton of money due to theta. The main reason I see for the exit was mostly for liquidity, I’m sure theta decay was part of the equation as well.
@@OutlierTrading ah ok, looks pretty advanced! do they integrate the full tradingview suite for charting or is it a more basic version like in "Advanced Dashboard" (another TD product)? 15:34 is the theta decay curve fairly universal or specific to every ticker?
thinkorswim has it's own charting interface. as far as decay, the concepts are universal, the precise values and whatnot are unique to the individual ticker.
The meeting being rescheduled just 3 days ago: I wonder what the chain looked like just prior to its reschedule versus today on both the original meeting date and this week. Curious whether an existing trend simply shifted 3 days or if it existed prior to the meeting, and now it’s coincidental.
First time if my memory is good (it’s not). I’m having a hard time coming up with any scheduled shareholder meeting being rescheduled the day of, let alone GameStop.
My tinfoil hat suggests the CEO, Ryan Cohen, has a history of insider buys that coincide with the meeting. If my memory works, again it’s iffy, he only buys once a year versus other board members who have bought on the quarterly interval. I would guess he has a prearranged plan - his role as investment chair or whatever likely locks him out of voluntary buys. I wonder if the chain expected that, given the meeting would have been completed.
I did go check: he has only made single annual purchases the last 2 years: last year at same annual meeting, prior was not the annual meeting - the quarter prior. “good news” tends to get filed on Mondays - I would guess that’s the source of anomaly by speculators.
a lot hinges on this shareholder meeting and the events leading up to it. i can completely see the data reflecting that. i do not see the same sentiment on forum boards which is weird.
It's actually impossible for anyone to tell definitively what happened. he absolutely could've exercised some. he could've sold. he could've done both. there's not way for us to know with certainty. ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-YtZRjmZm8xY.html
He played games with the market and got burned. You have that much of advantage don’t tell no one just take your shot. It would have helped everyone and then everyone would have found out afterwards.
