I once had something like this in a 1/2 game that ran out quad fours there was like a hundred in the pot, I was drunk, and I held the ace. I went all in for 700 effective. I was just doing it as a goof and figured villain would realize that. He starts tanking I'm like wtf? He says what could you do that with? I said anything but a king, I'd check call with a king. He speed called with a king. Wild.
The craziest runout I witnessed happened like 15 years ago at Empire at London @1/2 (next table from mine). AA88A in a 3B Pot. River action went bet, JAM, C, C. The revealed hands were KK. A7, A4. Wtf?!?! Cameras weren’t running 😂 My table dealer was also over raking except for one specific player. Place was shady asf. Played less than 30 minutes and left. Oh and instead of stopping the entire game and investigate. Just announced it as mis deal and continue w new deck.
I think I can get behind this call. Villain should really only have A9s on the river for value (if he really is a tight player as hero states). That’s 3 combos and we’re getting over 2:1. Seems like he can get here with plenty of hands like 77, 88, 98s, T9s and maybe even 87s that need to bluff river. And then there’s the possibility that he just misreads the board with 99 or something not realising his boat is counterfeit.
@@JohnSmith-nx7zj the question really is how often villains are turning their counterfeit hands into a bluff. From villain's perspective, hero has a lot of Ax here, as they would likely bet or xr turn with JJ-KK, only losing to 99 or the case 6. When hero check calls turn then checks river, a lot of villains at this level will likely check back the river. Theoretically, we should have the odds to call, but I think Bart's instincts make a lot of sense here too.
@@TheGuyCalledX It is a tough spot because I agree with Bart's instincts but there are so many bluffs due to all the counterfeit 9s compared to value (assuming a tight player pre-flop won't have A9o) we don't need that many players to turn those hands into bluffs. Like 10%-20% of the population needs to turn a 9 into a bluff (3 combos of each 89s, 99, T9s, J9s J and even T might check back though, + a sliver of 87s 88 and 77 feels like we should have 10+ combos in there) to get 1.5 combos to make it a profitable call. I just don't think I have enough confidence about what 20% of a population will do.
@@TheGuyCalledX I do agree that hero has a fair bit of Ax when he check calls the turn (since you wouldn’t expect overpairs to check call). But does hero check river with Ax? Maybe sometimes. And does a villain with (say) T9 always think about that anyway? Some villains do, but I think against population we can sigh call. It’s a gross spot. Although also such a rare one it probably doesn’t matter much.
@@uup116 there an old school heads up hand between Kristy Gazes (who Wikipedia assures me is a pro…) and Chad Brown where the board is 66662. Gazes holds 99 and Chad Ax. Chad is in position and checks behind on the river with the stone cold nuts (!) and then Kristy tells the dealer the pot should be chopped because they both have quads…
From villains perspective you probably have a lot of strong Ax combos that cbet flop and check-called turn. If villain is a solid thinking player and still bets river, I think I give this one up a lot.
I hate how passively this hand was played. X raise the turn, you have the best hand 99% of the time. Slowplaying out of position and leaving a shit ton of value on the table
Obviously yes. No one is betting Jx for value. But I guess hero’s logic is that villain should only have 3 combos of A9s for value and can get here with plenty of hands that need to bluff the river.
As played, hero can honestly have a lot of Ax here that c-bet flop and check turn. It makes more sense than putting hero on JJ-KK as you would expect those hands to bet turn.
You're right though that villain should be bluffing with a lot of counterfeited hands here, but in a 2/5 game you're going to find that this spot is underbluffed a ton.
@@TheGuyCalledX And calls the turn bet? What Ax calls a turn bet in the Hero’s position? Why? If I had AK, I likely don’t cbet flop but if I do, I fold turn to his bet
@mrhumble2937 Well I'm only a rec but I'll explain my logic. As bart explained hero can easily have an ace ..also what was v calling with ? Aa, kk, a9 , 10 10, jj, Are rhe only hands that make any sense to me and I don't think many take a stab in this situation with 10 10 or jj given hero could easily have an ace. That's assuming hero would check an ace on river (I think I'm getting position / order right) ...why not check an ace and keep bluffs in play? Only getting called by a king or another ace if bet I forgot 99, another possibility for v.which might bluff river
@@Fred-rg5vw Villain was on the button and flatted pre, and you're giving him AA & KK & JJ in his range? Also, Bart's assertion that hero can easily have an ace was the most questionable part of his analysis. Could hero check call turn with something like AK? Maybe, but he really should not. Does hero really hit the stone cold nuts & then check river? I don't think hero has many aces here.
@EllieBanks333 Some people do slow play aa and kk but yes I spose your right . Pretty unlikely. But other than the hands I mentioned nothing else makes sense for v to get to the river..so even if we discount aa and kk...only leaves a9 , 99, 10 10 and jj. Would he flat jj or 10 10 on the button ? It is a weird situation where you can narrow v hands down to only a few possibilities. I guess what I an saying is only an ace or say 10 hi or lower bet river..I'd assume j q or k hi take their showdown value and check behind. So back to your pt re hero being unlikely to check an ace ..if v can only have an ace or Max 10 hi.. better to check as v will bet either way..if you bet and he has 99 or 10 10 he folds when he'd otherwise consider bluffing
