Just want to let you guys know why it says Poker Hands by Doug Polk in the bottom right for so long, because this is an older video it was shot in 4 : 3. Because of this, we needed something to fill the space. Hopefully it is not too distracting.
***** Yeah, coming back to this after a few months, we're no long wondering why it says "Poker Hands" for the same reason as he originally posted about :D
Hey Doug, I know this is a crazy old video, but I have a strange thought process on why the Ad is a good card to have. Idk how I would term it, but if Dwan decides not to bluff with high diamonds in his hand like the Ad, then having the Ad means that Dwan could have a lower flush draw that he’s choosing to bluff unlike if Ivey had a hand like 76dd where he blocks 65s, 87s, and also possible the gappers. He also blocks AJ. I heard this concept discussed by a couple 500z players, so I was wondering if it applied here. Having the Ad would also mean Dwan can have airballs like the 98ss he does actually have here.
I had question Mr. Polk. Ivey was probably putting Dwan on a pretty big hand. How was his calling on turn a good one? He must've thought that he only had 12 outs. 9 diamonds and 3 jacks. His outs were 24℅ and the pot odds were almost 30℅. Isn't it -ev decision in the long run?
I would have told him to write down what he thinks Ivey has and see if he's right. It's a bit tough though, because neither player likely wants to show here, lol.
not only stupid, but without class as well. dude is contemplating a call for a 1 mil pot and Dnegs just has to insert himself and try to become the center of attention. 50-year old baby at work
I’ve watched like 30 of your videos, the last two before this one was auto played were ones where you were kinda apologizing/explaining your content and they were pretty helpful in realizing how to think about your strategy. I love these vids, bro. Don’t apologize, you are a good host!
Love these videos Doug. You're analyses are really helping with my thought process during hands. Watched you're twitched stream yesterday, that was a tough loss. You're definitely becoming one of my fav players to watch.
For a long time I figured that Ivey decided he had to fold since even some of Dwan's bluffs beat him, like 77-99, T9s, JTs, QJs, and ATs. I suppose Dwan decided to bomb the river here because in addition to not blocking FDs, he just knows that Ivey's range is capped and his isn't. But wouldn't it be better for Dwan to bluff with hands like JTs, QJs, KJs and K9s that block Ivey's 2-pair combos? Cause like you said, Ivey's turn-calling range still contains J9s and all AJ combos.
I actually think Eli ruined this hand! From 18:26, you can literally see the gears in Ivey's brain turning. At 18:49 he sits up straight and says "Let's think about this a little bit." He is focused and in the zone like an athlete at the peak of their plays. And at 19:04, he's distracted by people drawing attention to Eli dozing off and then Eli wakes up and makes some useless comments. The moment is gone. He's now smiling and laughing and ends up mucking the hand :(
It’s more the table making a thing of it .. Ivey was in a zone and they all start making Eli sleeping a thing. Ivey didn’t care and they all should’ve stfu about it.
Doug refuses to acknowledge the importance of body language in hands like this. Dwan is one of the best poker players in the world at reading body language and knew Phil was uncomfortable. Undoubtedly factored into his thought process, you can tell on the flop Phil is slouching and wants to hide
well i"m a pro poker player and have studied body language and live tells quite a bit, not quite a random youtuber. also, Tom is well known as one of the best in the world at reading body language. watch the video again and pay close attention@@Ben-ov2fi
AA can be a check, but AK should really be a value bet on the flop, right? Phil Ivey can have all the 2 pair hands - Q10/K10/KQ - that he'd flat Laak's raise pre and then call Dwan's 3bet. He'd 3bet all the pocket pairs that flop set himself. So with AK you're only worried about 2 K10 + 2 KQ combos, and this is an even better flop for AK because the Qc + 10d means he only have 2 Q10s. Then include the 3 AJs hands and Dwan with AK is only worried about 9 combos exactly? Combinatorics-wise, that's like checking an overpair on 825 two tone where only 9 combinations that beat you. I think it would the best overpair/one pair type hand to bet flop with given that it reduces the probability that you got outflopped. With AA, you only block +1 more AJs combo, but the net card removal effect is that Ivey has more KQ/K10 relative to when you have AK.
But from a balance perspective, I do see how you need AK to protect your check-call range, if you're checking JJ and AQ, that's altogether 18 combos vs. 18 combos of AK and AA, so it works. But I don't think you can protect your entire range. Dwan could well 3bet 99 preflop for value, then your checks are skewed to 57% middle pair + straight draw or underpairs again. Given the draw-heaviness of the board, maybe betting more often with AK is a bigger priority? Or is 99 a x/f on this flop, or just a call preflop?
Can someone explain the concept of card removal to me? Does the math really improve that much if someone has a 3/52 chance of having a card vs 4/52 chance?
Doug you are an inspiration...never forget your 2+ 2 thread "end of my rope"...and after watching the way you break down the hands and having studied GTO it becomes so easy to break down hands into a logical sequence. Since watching all of your videos i am now consistently winning at the micros...i know a long way to go, but the longest journey begins with the first step. I don't play multi tables because like you i want a solid foundation in hand reading, players reads etc rather than go on auto piloting which multi tabling can lead to. Your words on poker are like the messiah preaching...i am all ears...lol..
Doug, would you say its wrong for Ivey to call this river with A6?? If he thinks dwan is exploitatively overbluffing this river, doesn't that mean he can technically max exploit by calling 100% of his bluffcatcher and just rekting Dwan? Obv it means he might get readjusted on but thats another issue
Except it's not even a good bluff catcher. Dwan could be bluffing with a better hand. 99, 88, 77 are possible hands for Dwan to barrel 3 times trying to get Ivey off of a hand like J10, QJ, or KJ. Just because a guy is "bluffing" doesn't mean that he can't have a better hand.
Hey Doug, really nice video! However, as a begginer, I get reeally confused when you just say something like: "Does he 3bet a hand like suited aces or not", who are you talking about? Are you talking about Dwan representing such a hand or thinking Ivey has such a hand? I got confused many times during the video not knowing exactly what you mean :/ I know it must be obvious to you, but for me it isn`t lol Great analysis though!
Great video Doug, although I have a question about when you were talking about " doesnt have odds to call" on the turn. As the commentator states, he says that Ivey believes he has the implied odds to make calling profitable vs sets, so why do you say he doesn't vs sets specifically when he has 22.7% equity vs them and is calling 120 to win the 286 pot with Dwan having something like 5 or 600 behind? I guess Dwan could maybe get away from an Ivey shove with tens if a diamond hits, although 3 betting tens preflop in that spot seems way inferior to calling with them imo. Folding Queens or Kings with that spr seems pretty exploitable even if the flush or straight is a big part of Ivey's range then.
Quick question, why is being able to block a jack on the river (with KJ to use your example) more important than blocking the ace? It makes sense to me on an intuitive level, but mathematically, don't we block AJ equal amounts when we hold one ace as when we hold one jack (in Ivey's shoes, considering bluff shoving the river).
J9 is the other straight that’s out there that could easily hit Ivey’s range (and arguably Dwan’s as well) so the jack is the common denominator in both hands. You need that card either way so that blocker is much more important than the ace
Chavy Cash I found it funny how you actually put effort into critiquing my comment by correcting your spelling mistake, yet didn't put any effort in critiquing the content creator Doug...
I was waiting for you to do this hand. I got a bit confused when you talked about how it's better to bluff with what Tom's holding as opposed to 7-6 diamonds. I'm also working so I'm distracted. I'll rewatch
Cause if you're bluffing you want your opponent to be a le to have flush draws that missed but if you have a hand like 89 of diamond it is less likely that your opponent has a flush draw that missed.
Doug you say Dwan shouldn't fire 3rd barrel if he has missed diamonds, but say Ivey should fold because he blocks diamonds. Perhaps Ivey should call with missed diamonds if Dwan is indeed not bluffing missed diamonds on river.
Dwan's heads up game is his strength in his opinion. I can't imagine Doug thinking he's a better ring game player, but maybe. It would be nice if he answered!!!!
I mean, what hand does Ivey put Dwan on where he thinks his 6's are good? J 8 diamonds? 9 8 diamonds? If so, I guess that makes sense bc then he's getting very good implied odds if the flush comes in. Can anyone speak to this?
Doug, I don't think bluff raising river in Ivey's shoes is ever a good play b/c Dwan's 3 streets bluffing range in this scenario is very narrow to the hands you mentioned (unless he's a total maniac that is going to be super unbalanced and weighted towards bluffs). I think this is a bad bluff even with KJs that blocks hands to the str8 b/c it is very ulikely that Dwan is going to triple barrel and fold the top of his value range (KK,QQ,TT, J9s sometimes) for just about ~250K more behind (pot being 679K) if Ivey decides to bluff raise. If Dwan had more money behind and pot geometry was different then I could see a river bluff raise with Jx blocker working more often, but not in this spot.Also, don't you think trying to bluff people out of the top of their range is a bad idea; esp when they have range advantage? That's one of the main reasons why I think your bluff vs Patrik didn't work b/c he was at the top of his range (even tho I like the hand you chose to bluff). I just don't think that trying to bluff people when they have super strong hands and one of the few hands they're going to have in a certain spot, Is a good idea.
It's not terrible to bluff shove the river with some blockers here in general but it is terrible vs Dwan because he stations. He's never folding with those odds if he ever thinks the opponent can bluff, which he does always think. Dwan would never fold any value hand to a river shove.
lol so what else do you propose genius? Try to bluff your way with every Jx in a pot where there's little to no FE? Yeah that sounds like a better strat
John Griller That's what I'm saying no FE for Dwan unless he has nothing, but in general there is Fold Equity for tighter players that would ONLY shove there with the nuts. So if you bet KKK on the river there ($268,200) and Johnny Chan Shoves for say 270k more, calling there is losing 100% of the time.
I really don't get why you continually ignore live tells. It's a crucial part of the game. Ivey didn't tank for several minutes on the river thinking about hand ranges and pot odds.
Of course he thought about that. And also thought about the tells. Dwan is quite stoic and not giving much really. His tells are indicative of a huge hand or a bluff
let the hand play out first. in my opinion it makes the video more enjozable....! let a viewer make their opinion before interrupting nad giving input on each streak.
They're at the effective sizes that you could realistically flat a 4bet with AJs. Trip jacks are basically always good, you can flop the nut flush draw, you'll stack KK/QQ/TT every time on KQ10 flops etc.
Yea I too don't understand why Doug thinks Dwan 3 betting AJ pre would be bad 3 bet here bc 'if you get 4 bet youre in a tough situation( 8:04 ) ......wouldn't it be a easy fold granted everyones your opps are all pretty pretty standard which seems to be the case here pre from Dwans point of view??
he's capped himself; ivey, perhaps. thought, if dwan bet a slight amount more, he could take out almost all fold equity from ivey and prevent iveys raising there. i was thinking ivey is only raise/folding on the river here. is that like a meta play though? dwan doesn't bet that much to show he's prepared to make that call, as well as price ivey out from calling something like aq/a10 type hands?
Very interesting hand there to be honest. I think Tom bets exactly the same if not slightly more if a diamond hits the river, I can't see him giving up there and Phil would scoop a huge pot. I believe Phil knows that Tom is weak and I think comes to the conclusion that tom Probably has a hand like JJ with the Jack of diamonds hence the fold with 66. Tom's betting/bluffing is awesome but I think Phil taking as long as he did there with just a 6 on the river in such a huge pot shows why at the time he was the best player in the world. It's easy to say but if it were me there on the button I would raise to about 120k when tom bets 46k on the flop just to give the hand more definition and really test Tom's hand strength on the flop. If Tom did decide to call and float to try and take the pot away on the river it really likely goes check check on the same 3s turn card. So Phil essentially would save money as the turn bet was 120k. I think also Tom much more likely shuts down on the river on the same run out as he would be scared Phil does have a huge hand. But I do agree with you Doug that flatting the flop is the ideal play most of the time here just against Tom I think a raise is better with Phil's huge draw.
Read down in the comments that you are from Australia Mate Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi love this series so much Please tell me your gonna play the main event next year????
how can Ivey just flat the flop... from what does he excpects to get value if he makes his hand... only if he puts Dwan on a set it makes sense... and even then he should go for max value by trying to get it in on the flop... yes.. they are very deep... anyway..1 . im not even 10% of Polks mind regarding GTO ... so i would really love an proper explanation why to not raise the flop with Iveys hand ... thx )))
Yeah, basically it is all explained in the video. Anyways: Think of what does Iveys value range look like, if he decides to raise it up on the flop. The flop is way better for the PFA, as he has all Sets, Nutstraight, KQs, TPTK and Aces. With Ivey only calling twice preflop, he caps his range and he has one pair type of hands or draws here most likely + sometimes one or another combo of AJ. Generally speaking, when Ivey does raise, he is repping very little value combinations and lots of bluffs. Given that fact, Dwan could easily come back over the top or just call, letting Ivey spew off his stack. So to sum this up: Whenever a Flop hits your opponent more than you and he is capable of having more strong hands/nuts than you, you certainly want to check or call more than bet or raise.
Sometimes people just want to get in on some action with the bois. Don’t always have to be over critical when someone pays a bit more to see the flop lol.
Damn bro I hate it for ya. I wanna let you know, I really appreciate what you're doing on here. I'm sure releasing the truth about how to play GTO poker is -EV, but the truth is a valuable thing. Please keep doin what you're doin homey.. It'll pay dividends long term.