Shohei was known to be a better pitcher than hitter before he came over to the U.S. Plus, his swing is completely different from before. You use to do a leg kick before making contact with the ball and now he just tip toes one leg and is breaking records. I'd take his WBC stats as a base line projection for his playoff stats.
Refering to your sons predictions as 'unsophisticated' really shows how little you care about the Kpgo stat (Kids predicting game outcomes). I expect better from a baseball media company.
So far James has predicted: - Tigers over Houston (correct!) - Royals over Orioles (correct!) - Brewers over Mets (still going) - Braves losing to Padres (correct!)
There are a few ways to weight these. Easiest I have found is to assign each category a number, the higher the number the more important. All of the category numbers cannot total more than 1.00 For example, Big Inning is worth 0.40, all the rest have to then sum to 0.60. Then take that number assignment, multiply it by the teams’ ranking. So Dodgers Big Inning is 6, 6*0.4=2.4, that’s your big inning score. Repeat for all categories, then add all category scores together. The lowest total is your top team. I hope that makes sense. Love your work. LFGSD 💛
Will Smith is a tough cookie. Worth digging into Smith getting hit on backswings. Feels like it happens a lot watching, and would be good to see catcher stats to who gets hit the most. Anything to learn re: catcher positioning?
Your sophisticated formula should take into consideration current team (exclude player performances from guys off the playoff roster). This would give better picture of what actually represents current team. Plus, if a team is really good at scoring 3+ in an inning, their correlating pitching metric on shut down % should not mean as much (ie. scoring 4 runs and then giving up 1 run is still ‘winning’ outcome). As a brewers fan, that one stat really dragged down their overall pitching metric 😂😂
Yeah the braves being high is due to their crazy pitching rankings, but sale is out, and reynaldo lopez probably won't pitch either. It showed today when AJSS got nuked immediately.
your boy rocked the two correct predictions and fell down & grounded out on the incorrect predictions. Officially using his model in all future endeavors
As a stat guy, I think it would be helpful to see the actual percentage/stat. It would be important to see how far the #1 is from the #10. Because if the difference is insignificant, being #1 is not that important for that stat line.
better predictions than his father! Tigers - nails the hit - correct Royals - liner - correct Brewers - falls down - incorrect Braves - hits it straight down into the ground - incorrect We need to see NLDS predictions! Based on his guess, a solid hit means hes correct and a bad AB means hes incorrect
Jimmy, I like where you're going with your calculation. I think the next step isn't to weight it based on gut-feeling, but, instead, take the last few years of playoff brackets and weight each category until it produces the actual bracket outcome. Then, use the average weighting of those last three playoffs and apply it to this season. Using three years will help correct for Cinderella stories. Just my two cents...
@14:32 I think that is the next step here. Your numbers reflect the regular season standings well because they're built on regular season performance values. The next step would be to adjust these performance values as offense-against-postseason-teams-only, or pitching-against-over.500-teams only. It's a limited sample size then. To put it differently, how many of the teams that had big innings against are in the postseason. None, right? So then the question is how do you expect big inning offense performance to adjust within postseason teams. It's the post season, nobody knows what's going to happen. Also, your son is a hitter! Congrats on getting him there.
Kids usually say the second thing they hear when giving options because they dont remember the first option especially since its something they aren't familiar with
as a diamondbacks fan ive waited to see the dbacks on the top of the stats in one of these videos for so long. now it finally happens and its in a playoff video when theyre not in the playoffs😢😢
Rankings aren’t the best for weighted averages. Couple other comments mentioned that if the #1 team is a lot lot better than the #2-5 teams, for example, then rankings don’t do it justice. However, who tf cares 😂 I would do it like this Since “low number” is better here (1 is better than 30) we want to flip that, so in your average, it would be WEIGHT*(31-X), where X is the ranking. This is for each of the metrics you have (do offense and defense weighting separately). All the weights are going to be numbers between 0 and 1, and all the weights together should add to 1 So the weighted average formula for offense would be something like 0.1*(31-SF) + 0.1*(31-3DIFF) + 0.5*(31-BIGINN) + 0.1*(31-RPG) + 0.2*(31-ANSBACK) = weighted average offensive rank Where I just used the stats you had in the video, and all the weights add to 1. The resulting answer you have to subtract 30 from it to get it back to low number is better
After doing the same for the defense, you can just do a normal average for the overall rank. or you can do weights again, just two weights this time 0.4*(31-OFFENSE) + 0.6*(31-PITCHING) = final score Just subtract 30 from final score to get rank
The easy way to do a weighted average is to take something like 100 total categories, and count the more important categories more times in those 100. For example, if you say opponent big inning % is the most important, maybe that counts for 25 or 33 of the 100, then the rest of the 100 gets divided up as you see fit, and instead of dividing by 5 at the end, you can divide by 100, and if keeps the 1-30 scale the same
Your son might actually have a profitable system at play here. When he hits a dong shot the system is all in balance and the numbers line up with his prediction. When he makes bad contact that’s the system telling him he’s off a little. You might be raising a sharp bettor, congratulations. Let’s get him some BP for this weekends NFL slate 🔒
My prediction is that the amount of playoff games and playoff teams should be- at the very least- cut in half. The playoffs are bloated as hell and it hurts both the quality of play and the entertainment value. I swear to God I might just become a KBO fan or some shit. Fuck.
