The Bike Industry Is Going Down In 2024! 

After a lot of initial comments, I'm for sure going to make a follow up video on why new bike prices HAVE to drop and soon. I don't think people realize how terrible the used bike market is and how much that'll affect new bike sales. Stay tuned my friends!

Biggest mistake all companies make is thinking crazy spikes will last.

Great summary. Another big problem the bike brands are facing is that many of them jacked up the prices of their new models significantly, while lowering the spec/builds quite significantly. So, this means a barely used 20/21/22 model is so much cheaper and better value than the new models - even if the shop/brand discounts the new model by 15-20%. I saw Specialized do this with several of their bikes - they jacked up the price by 20% but downgraded to junk wheels, a bottom spec drivetrain etc. Buy a pre-2023 bike on the used market (where prices are tanking) and you will get a better bike for a lot less money.

I build/rebuild bikes as a hobby. Needless to say, during Covid, I moved close to 150 bikes locally. They basically sold themselves. The magic ended mid 2022. I got lucky and dumped all my bikes, parts, inventory etc... I just focus on my personal bikes now... the market is so saturated and overpriced I would ride what you have and play the waiting game till prices tank further.

Well it’s about time! Need some humbling! Crazy when a motocross bike is cheaper or same price and bicycle prices went out of sight years ago.

I think a big problem with the bike industry is they don’t really think bikes are transport, there’s very few makers making something like a 3x8/9 rigid commuting bike with mudguards and a rack, and even if they do similar, you still have to spend more to get mudguards and a rack. it’s just assumed everybody wants a 1x12 mtb for a stupid amount of money, that’s going to be used occasionally

Lots of people in the big cities bought a bicycle and tried to use it for commuting. Now they figure out the way to work it short enough for the bicycle, but it’s still not safe enough on a bicycle in the big city traffic. Depending on developments in things like bike lanes that may or may not be the end of the bike hype. If bicycling in the big cities become safer, bicycle sales will continue - if it stays dangerous, the bike commuting hype will be over soon.

I worked in bike shops for years, though I haven’t worked in a shop for three years I’ve been closely watching the industry because I’m still emotionally invested. What I am seeing reminds me of the bike industry recession during the early 90s I’ve watched a lot of manufacturers have to make adjustments to the quantity of products they produce, as well as prices drifting upward. On a positive note, I believe social media has been a great resource for people to become interested in cycling, and I hope to see more young people become passionate in cycling. This will create a committed customer base for the future and I believe bike, shops and manufacturers should be supporting programs to get youth into cycling.

I just picked up a 2021 Kona Process at a bike shop with a sticker price of $3,899 and paid $2,200 out the door. I’m sure there will be more pre-Covid, end of season bike deals coming. Bike companies need a reality check. We want better deals, especially those of us who have been riding far before COVID

Great video! Totally agree! I was going to sell 2 of my newish bikes to get 2 brand new bikes but I now realize I'm not going to be able to sell them for anywhere near what I thought. So I think I'll just sit tight and ride what I already have for another year.

Excellent points made here. I have seen the bicycle industry go through this in the past. I was working for Quality Bicycle Products (QBP) when the 2008 economic crisis happened. What is interesting is that companies often time panic, like they did at the beginning of Covid which you pointed out, and lay people off and plan on a drop in sales. What usually ends up happening is more people get on bikes because out of most of the hobbies out there, cycling is still affordable. Sure, the higher end stuff takes a hit, but in 2008 we saw a huge uptick in commuter bikes. I have also seen sports like BMX grow rapidly during harder economic times. Again, it's cheap entertainment compared to many other things. So the bicycle industry has to be careful and with Covid it's going to be very unpredictable with what direction things will take. We had Covid, now we have a pending recession. It will be interesting.

I had a teacher that called that the slinky effect. Your the second person I've heard y'all about this so I've been waiting to buy when/ if the prices come down. Thanks for sharing this with us.

They have overcharged for years.

I've been thinking about this recently. This isn't affecting only the bike industry. A lot of companies in the outdoor gear industry are going to experience this. Hell, it might even happen to vehicles as well. This is well said Josh. Thanks for sharing.

With the recession as well, people won’t have the same disposable income to spend on ever increasing bike prices. I feel that 2023 will see a correction.

I think in the Midwest we are a month away from those prices coming down - but you’re spot on - this spring is a good time to buy a bike. I look forward to a follow-up report.

Thanks for the vid. Prices are absolutely crazy. I completely bailed on a new gravel/bikepacking bike from Salsa due to lack of availability and incredibly high prices. I ended up reconfiguring an old Trek hardtail mountain bike with a few new components (smaller tires, new pedals, etc..) and saved myself a ton of money.

I think it would be cool if you provided a regular quarterly bike industry report similar to this video. Good stuff. Thank you!

The only surprising thing about this is that industry executives seem to not have predicted this obvious result somehow. I was saying in spring of ‘21 that in a year or two there would be loads of “used” bikes ridden 3x for sale cheap.

Looking back at 2014 when I was in college with a fixie club and 2019 when I was finally able to buy my first MTB, I think it's like a 5-years repeating pattern. This trend has its own peak and low season. At the end of this, we need to keep pedaling to keep this industry balance.

Thanks for the heads up. I think things will get better - in a few years - if we are lucky.

Feels like bikes have basically peaked out. I haven’t seen any significant changes other than a crazy price increase since 2019. Bikes got like half a degree slacker here or half a degree steeper there. No reason for most of us to upgrade unless We get an awesome deal.

It’s insane how much bikes have gone up over the years. If I were to try to buy a mt bike spec’d with the same quality of components my 2009 bike has I would be spending somewhere around 5-6k as compared to the $1,200 I spent back then.

Great summary and another key factor in used price point is every single major company offers credit options.

Good, solid and honest advice. Thanks.

This is such an accurate analysis and it’s so good to hear people are catching on. The market is absurdly overpriced. I know the manufacturers were trying to stay afloat during the pandemic when the factories had to shut down but it’s insane to ask the prices they’re asking. I’m sympathetic to their plight but I’m a little pissed at their pricing strategies. A lot of companies are asking $3500 for a bike with bottom tier components. I won’t list the component name and groupset but the mfg’s are nuts to think serious riders would use bottom tier crap on a $3500 bike. At least give us Deore which works nicely! Until they come back down to earth with prices I’m not buying anything new, and I used to buy high end bikes every few years but now that’s just impossible.

Totally agree, I am one a largest bike resellers in Wales UK and the market is dead ATM. In fact it is so dead I have taken a month off. I am hoping it picks up in the spring. Its been a sellers market for over 2 years, now its a buyers market.

Thank you thank you thank you! I am just about to buy my first bike(recumbant trike) in twenty years and didnt think I had wiggle room to negotiate a price. I do see lots of selections available.

Great content! Thanks amigo!

Always good to see a new DMTBR video out! Funny, your picture of the empty bike shop only had road bikes left! 😂

Nothing was fixed back in 2008/9 ... central banks kept rates low, which encouraged massive borrowing, and when money becomes cheap, everything else gets expensive ... it's all reflected in the huge distortions in the stock market and real estate market valuations. What goes up must come down ... looking at picking up a new/used road bike next year....but now is not the time. I see things falling apart sometime next year when it all starts unraveling ... banks are in trouble and inflation isn't going away. I can get another season out of my 9yr old road bike if it means saving thousands.

Awesome input and valuable wisdom 🫡

Thanks for the video man. In the Toronto area I am seeing prices drop BUT, there still seems to be some bike shortages in LBS on certain brands e.g. Kona, Surly.

I worked in cycle retail for 3 years and the prices are shockingly high. They have almost doubled for carbon and high high end bikes in general. Also components are also part of this price rise and they have to come together to address this or it may go bad for a lot of bigger companies.

I appreciate the content good sir. Fortunately for myself, I primarily ride 26'er bikes, and have numerous used parts I have collected over the years as the industry moved away from 3x8 setups and 26 inch wheels.

Love this video! Helpful info ❤

Great summary! I couldn't sell my near new Revel Rail ($8,200 build + $350 extras) for $4,300 and I had it listed for months!

Bikes are too much expensive , now alloy DH bikes are selling for 10k wtf?

The bike I bought in 2018 for $2100 now costs $4500. No significant changes.

Yeah. I tried to sell my current bike so I could buy a different bike. I had on the market for a while with a couple price drops and no sale. So I decided make a couple of upgrades and got some good deals from my LBS. The bike feels dialed and ready for springtime. Definitely going to keep it now

You're correct. About 2 weeks ago I picked up a 3 month old giant stance e+ 1 for 3k. That's a 5k bike for almost half off.

What you are talking about maybe applies, as presented, in the USA. If you are in Europe like me, things look very different. Energy and fuel costs are so high over here at the moment, that ppl are actually selling cars to buy e-bikes. But to your point: yes and no. Prices will drop slightly at the beginning of the season, but they wont go anywhere after that. As a bike store owner myself, im seeing some price dropping on 2022 models but at the same time the price increase for 23 models are substantial. So no, if you want a bike do NOT wait for the prices to drop any further, cuz they wont. And its not like you are missing out on anything aswell because technology wise, the 23 models are for the most part identical to 22 models. Since new technology couldnt be produced in time for 2023, the models stayed roughly the same...

I remember at the middle of 2021, trek in my area had a waiting list of bikes. a waiting list! like it's a luxury watch, man. now, it's calmer. people who actually ordered, some of them I know, are not even biking anymore. they're back at work using their car or public transpo.

G'day from downunder Josh. Prices in Australia seem to be really coming down because of the reasons you mentioned. Even E-MTB's have dropped dramatically and some workplaces allow you to get them on a novated lease where everything including servicing, spares etc are paid for pre- income tax

Got 25% percent off Specialized Levo SL in Denver. Still $6300 but nice to see the tables turn a bit.

I wasn't paying attention to the market much when I bought a new Santa Cruz Bronson about two months ago. After a couple years of watching everything get sold out and having to travel hours to find what I wanted, I was -shocked- at the deal the shop offered me. They just kept discounting it. I just sold my old bike at my asking price, but it took a couple months. If you're in a hurry, be prepared to get less than you were hoping for.

Very good video. Appreciate the analysis.

Thanks for the insight.

Really want to get a new bike and would love to trade in or sell two of my bikes in order to make this happen, but the reality is that I’ll probably just end up keeping the current bikes because the prices are so high…

My biggest thing is: try to ALWAYS go to your local bike shop. It helps your local bike shop dramatically. Source: a local bike shop.

Tyvm for the info.

Yeah, experiencing this first hand. I bought a used bike in November and now I can’t get rid of the old one. Especially with terrible weather for the last two months, no one is buying bikes. Going to be selling at a loss

Being a busted up old geezer with a bunch of traumatic injuries, I went electric 6 years' That market has fluctuated wildly in recent months. My 1st bike got $300 cheaper for a few month & then went up $200 more than I paid in a couple wks. Along comes black friday, & I bought the plus model my my bike 1/2 list price $1899 for $949, $100 cheaper than the cheapest price the 1st at $1099..didn't really need another but couldn't pass on that price. I love 'em both, but this gave me a chance to rebuild the rear wheel on the first one. The moral is be a frugal shopper & hunt for the best possible deal.

Serves them right for nearly doubling the prices .

I’m watching this today, 06/19/23 and you totally called it. Amazing deals going on right now!

Brill video ! That explains a thing or two thank you. I renovate old Raleigh’s for a hobby and used to sell them outside my front door fairly quickly and just break even after buying parts. Recently though nobody seems interested. George U.K.

They won't be dumping stock. The 2023 models will be old stock with new stickers. Any discount you will see is prices coming back to pre covid prices. Considering some of those bikes went up in price (not value) nearly 50%, a 40% discount still means you are paying 10% more than original sticker price.

I agree. At my local shop, there was a Scott 950 genius that was built in June just sitting there for months. They had two of them. Finally marked it down to 2k, sat there another month, and finally someone finally bought them. Probably for Christmas. I would have at that price, but I bought another bike shortly before I saw that. 1k off a bike that's 3k retail is insane.

Buddy of mine manages a bike shop and said they aren't selling anything, even with discounts! I really don't pay much attention, as I'm still rocking (and loving) my 2017 YT Jeffsy!

Shout out from Bellingham as well! definitely hit that subscribe button!

I've been eyeballing various mtb brands for a few months now.... and all I see thus far is "sales" of a few hundred bucks here and there..... not what I would consider a sale. Like Canyon for example. They think they can drop their price on their "Outlet" bikes, the Spectral 29 CF 8 by a mere $150 and that'll get people jumping to buy it.

Yeah bro the bike market is SATURATED. Gotta sell at a hard loss to get things moved. By the way, great job on this one. Really good topic to cover.

So glad I came across this video today. Really useful tips as I m thinking of buying a brand new but my preferred models are a way out of my budget

I have to say, you are right. Your video is spot-on.

I just bought a (new, with warranty) Cannondale Moterra Neo 2 full-suss E-MTB for half of the $7K MSRP (which is apparently still OVER the shop's NET cost...hard to believe!) so I'd say "it" has begun.

Well said Josh! Pretty hot topic right now… Hope your video does well brother! Mine sure did…😉 I think we all need to be smart with our money in 2023. Support your local bike shops people! And don’t be afraid of doing a little work on a “New-to-you” bike this year!💪🏻

So insightful.

So true, the market for used bikes is so crazzy!

Maybe true in the US, but up here in Canada, prices haven't gone down much. In fact they even went up. The trend I see is that people over 40 wanna get into the e-bike market, so bike shops are stuck with their expensive models more & more. Easy to look it up, e-bike seller webpages are full of unavailable models, specially for the popular ones like the NCM Milano & Moscow as an example.

I sold 2 bikes at peak crazy and bought a new Insurgent from Bellingham local company Evil at MSRP. Right before Evil bumped their prices up for the exact same bike. Feel like I timed that one really well and now I'm gonna be in the market for a new XC bike, again with perfect timing! I also have seen supply shoot up and demand go down. The delusional asking prices on pinkbike have already started to fall and the bottom has yet to come!

Very interesting :-) thank you.

I don’t think prices on new bikes are going to drop until the fall. Spring is when demand goes back up which should keep prices pretty steady.

no joke... the used market has crashed big time... even 6 months ago you could sell a bike on PB or CL within minutes sometimes! thanks for the video!

Yeah as someone who works in a big franchise bike store it's definitely baking off. Still good summer numbers here in aus but we got a huge overstock of full suspension bikes from not having any 12 months ago. Crazy prices and yeah we need to shift them now so get rid of them

Great news that the mountain bike market is stocked up and has a full inventory.

Also maybe support smaller brands you love. Just purchased a Cotic hardtail frame.

Josh, you're not going to like my take on what is killing the bike industry. The only thing I agree with you 100% is the used bike market. Here we go, like in Paintball. The bike industry has slowly been killing itself internally by following the mobile phone marketing strategy. Rather than sticking to past manufacturing trends of having a model line unchanged for 4 to 6 years other than colour ways and components, meaning frames and geo stayed the same. Every manufacturer that makes frames and components has been pushing to create solutions for problems that do not exist for the everyday rider. The push for high-end carbon, hidden shocks, wireless drivetrain, boost, super boost, on and on and on again. Simple put the manufacturers would like you to buy a new bike every year to two to three like the phone makers. In my opinion, the last glory days of MTB bikes was 2014 to 2016. Where you can buy a hell of a metal based frame or a very decent carbon bike for under 5 grand US. Now metal framed bikes are approaching 5 grand and carbon bikes approxhing 12 grand US. Simply put, the bike manufacturers ignored economic trends while pushing for record profits due to greed, not real meaningful and useful tech evolution. People have been forced to deal with a recession not caused by the pandemic but pushed by it closer to a new economic depression. The real recession started in 2007 and 2008 when US housing market and auto manufacturers where failing. Instead of the government letting the recession hit, they over printed money to buy time, they have been doing that since, with the pandemic multiplying it to boarder catastrophic levels. The next 5 to 6 years are going to be very bleak economically speaking. From rising food pricing, heating, gas, electricity, and I could go on. No one in their right mind is going to be purchasing these overpriced and blinged out pleasure items currently and in the years to come. This is the real reason why bikes are sitting in warehouses. Not because the manufacturers over ordered or over saturated the supply chain. They overpriced themselves to sit on these bikes. The industry needs to go back to bikes under the 5 grand bike model. Just my opinion.

Great info! Add to it the possibility of a recession, yikes!

yep have seen this recently. I was not looking for a new bike at the time, but I lucked into a 2023 Domane SLR 7 eTap AXS for a stupid low price and then turn around and sold my 2021 Domane SLR 7 for what I thought was a low price, but I did not want to hang on to it over a little bit more money when I knew I had a buyer with cash in hand, so I took the deal. It was a win win for everyone. I know some people that are holding out for what they think is a fair price for their bikes, but don't have the buyers. Some were even critical of me for the price I got for my bike, but I just point to the empty spot I have on my wall where that bike hung, and just smile and say, have you sold yours yet? There was a song the gambler, know when to hold them, know when to fold them.

The points you made in this video could possibly be the reason I was able to get forks really cheap. So for the longest time Manitou Circus Comp forks were about £300. In December I was able to get a brand new set from ChainReactionCycles for £140 now they’ve increased the price to £180. I got them in black, they also have a white option but that stayed at £280 now they’ve both settled at £180

Another factor to consider is many people including myself are deciding to switch to e bike's as I just purchased the new Lectric 3.0 and am able to go on twenty and thirty mile rides now and actually enjoy it. Hills are no longer obstacles ...

Yes please. Follow up video!

its happening here in the Philippines too. Prices are going down (shops disguise them by giving "discounts"), pandemic bike shops are closing, too many people selling their bikes bought from the pandemic times.

I think so too that some companies had so much unsold stock that they were just giving them away near the end of this year. Diamondback had their top of the line aluminum HT, the syncr, on sale at HALF OFF during cyberweek 2022. Took advantage of it and got myself a great bike for a deal of the century!

I go out of my way to buy brands that have reasonable options. Picked up an Ibis Ripmo af slx for $3300 in November. I’m sick of the average cost of a new bike being 5-6k for a decent model. It’s been out of hand for awhile imo. I think you’re spot on. There will be some great deals to be had in the next year!

This is super true, I just bought a new ebike, a company from Vancouver set me up with a full suspension ebike for 2100, emmo wouldve charged me 4k, some companies aren't catching on yet and are going to suffer massively for it.

I was just lucky enough to sell my 2017 Santa Cruz Hightower CC(XTR-11s) and apply the $2500 proceeds towards a 2021 Trek Rail 9.8 GX for the inventory blowout price of $7400. You’re absolutely right, deals can be had right now, just before Spring hits.

How do you think E-bikes are going to affect sales of new and used non-e-bikes?

I’m a bike shop owner over 30 years, it is tough out there right now

Just picked up a Nukeproof for my son with 45% discount. Never thought that would happen again over the last couple of years.

SRAM temporary halted MAP (min advertised price) during the 22 Holiday Season so it gave retailers freedom to deeply discount SRAM products. But SRAM turned back on MAP effective Jan 1st. Do you feel SRAM will revisit their MAP policy? Or keep it active so the smaller LBS can be competitive with the larger retailers? Product the shops versus maintaining revenues - tough call

So you're telling me selling 11k bikes isn't sustainable.

The companies thought this was a boom when it was only a sale's surge. Saw the same in XC skiing too.

A very interesting and informative article. We are as usual, the victims of supply and demand and market forces. In the UK even so called budget but quality cycles from leading manufacturers are overpriced (but offset in some cases by Ride to Work schemes and cheap finance deals) and there is also considerable depreciation to contend with affecting the cost to change after a year or so. Manufacturers are getting away with lower end components particularly with fashionable and in demand gravel and e bikes but are charging premium prices for these. They no longer represent good value. As with any consumer item, there will always be a market for the very high end equipment so this is affected less. Ultimately, the consumer decides and with diminishing disposable incomes, the industry must get real or face further loss and discounting in order to produce a profit through volume sales. Just look at the car industry. Sales of EVs are up but that bubble will soon burst as overpricing, running costs and manufacture greed hit home.

Bike companies won’t drop their prices. They just won’t order newer ones. They are going to keep their margins.

Bought a stumpjumper back in 2014. It's done everything I've asked of it riding around Alberta & Whistler. I have no reason to upgrade it. Brakes are still awesome. Shocks need a rebuild at this point but they still work lol. Then I built a hard tail 3 years ago from a Giant frame I got, through "wheeling and dealing" it's probably worth $3000 retail in parts, but I'm into it for $900.

Good scoop, agree 110%

I heard no lies.

This worked our well for me as a buyer , i had to buy 2 bikes one for my wife i picked up a few year old Townie Electra 7D for $150just needed a new shift cable , and a 2020 Norco Indie 2 XS for $320 CND was mint ridden maybe twice . Im on the lookout now for a BMX for myself .

Yeh Vitus did the same. I bought my Vitus Mythique VRX in 2020/2021. Cost me 1600. Just missed the sale where it was going for 1480. Recently checked the latest 2022/23 model. It's 1800 and lower specced. Shocking. Glad I got mine when I did.