The Bike Industry Just Broke The Used Market! 

I would say the "used market" has just been out of control. People are finally getting a well deserved wake up call.

I think people don't realize how quickly a bicycle depreciates in value once it's used. I always say, "Expect to get 1/2 or less of what you paid for it when you sell a used bike". For a short time a used bike was selling more than what you paid for it, just like used cars. That was simply because getting new bikes or cars that you wanted was almost impossible without a long wait. That was a short lived situation, so it is not surprising to see used prices drop back to where they should be.

I've only been mountain biking for a few years, but it still blows my mind how people expect to recoup their costs on non-essential LUXURY goods, treating them like investment properties "I'll buy full carbon super build this year because I'll sell it for 90% cost next year and get next years model for free! ;D" Luxury, niche items, in a recession. Surprise surprise.

Add in 8% to 9% sales tax on new and the discount on used is even deeper.

I used to ride a Trek Road Bike , But at age 68 I gifted it to a 16 year old who would ride it more than me, due to my back pain at the time. I went to The Trek store the other day and Now the Trek bikes are $8, 000 mine was $2,500 when I got it and I put new stuff on it to Class it up. Now with my back problems and being a diabetic I will get a simple fun type of bike to Plow around the world in, to keep the blood moving.... Bill from Santa Rosa Many Blessings To All

I am hoping I'm not going to lose my bike shop job this year 🙃

VAT in Portugal for bikes (exclusively) just went down from 23% to 6%. Just imagine how crazy it is around here 😂

I just recently took my bike off the used Market, with a couple of price drops because it wouldn't sell. It is in excellent condition, almost new condition. So I decided to make a couple of upgrades to it because my LBS had some good deals going on components Now I can't wait for riding season/springtime to ride it again

This could ripple into the next few years where bike brands really struggle to balance their budgets as people are selling used bikes/parts for cheap and tech has plateaued at the moment. This was something I saw people talking about online and I don't think they are wrong. We may see bike brands really struggle to weather this if they weren't smart during the massive boom in the '20-'22 eras. Could cause tech to stagnate, though we may also see some big innovations as brands fight to get people to buy new vs used.

This channel is becoming Bike Industry Market Watch and I'm all for it!

The most annoying thing is when people list bikes and don't indicate the model year.

A customer of mine in Anacortes gave me a low miles 2008 Specialized Stumpjumper Elite FSR because they sold their house and had to bug out. It had been sitting for years because he busted the rear derailleur and bent the hanger. A good used XTR rear derailleur off eBay and new hanger and it was back on the trails. Yes, it has 26" wheels, but I'm pretty short and 29ers are unthinkable for me.

I'm hoping the car industry continues to head in this direction as well.

That GX carbon Sentinel was $5500 new from Transition when it released in 2020. I didn't realize it got a 15%/$1000 bump jeez

The other big problems is certain brands were over-priced before the pandemic and those same brands raised their prices a few times and higher than others. Specialized and Santa Cruz especially were vampires to riders.

good the price of pedal bikes need to come down, it makes no sense to pay 5k for mid range.

Being someone that rides a much older but well maintained/upgraded bike (Norco Bigfoot from the early-mid 2000s) I have watched the bike industry become the monstrous thing that it is and I’m actually quite glad to possibly see the beginning of that bubble bursting, as you said the tech in the industry really does seem to have reached a point where unless you’re a semi pro rider or have a bottomless wallet and feel the need to be one up from your riding peers there is very little to be gained by upgrading to the latest model. As has been shown in countless RU-vid videos the entry level bikes now are far more capable than they ever have been and with a used market becoming flooded with reasonably priced upgrades I can see many people choosing to upgrade what they have rather than buying new

It’s frustrating cause it could see this was gonna happen, in the uk during covid everything just went crazy with bike, people were just buying any bike any size on credit no matter what the cost or if it even fit them, and now the market is flooded with nice bikes but everyone wants cash for then, nobody has got the cash to spend with the world the way it is at the moment. There mostly just gonna end up in a garage unused and the people who really would have used them will have lost out.

I've been in the industry for decades. For years, PD, marketing and sales leadership have been jabbering about the aisles of Interbike as well as their own brand sales meetings about over production, model proliferation and so on. The "big 5" telling, demanding, buying out retailers in some cases...not asking...the best IBD's in the biz about consumer spending/buying habits and seasonal bicycles sales cycles, how and when to discount, 'utilize our co-op marketing spends'... IBD's pushed way back and voted with their pocket books or at least the goods ones did. So, in 2015-ishness, many brands went DTC, sold bikes to retailers who had no biz selling said bikes. Marketing/Leadership spun and lauded the omni-channel sales and distro. strategy while claiming to still protect the shops that largely build "XYZ bad ass bike brand" in the first place. It doesn't work and it was never going to work. Every button pushed to grow sales was done for the short run and gain. A pure money grab to satiate investors and in some cases Wall Street....no interest in the long term health of the category. Just wait til the E bike segment crashes and burns and it will. Nothing will change unfortunately. Taking a page right out of the ski industry's playbook. Pure definition of insanity.

So nice to see you pumping out new videos every other days!

I was big into mountain biking 12 years ago and last year I got back into it. I got myself a new 2021 trek fuel ex7 (which has been an absolute dream of a bike) I was floored that an "entry level" dual suspension bike ran me for $4100 CAD plus tax!

Keep in mind that bike sales are seasonal and mid-winter is traditionally where prices drop to their lowest. Whether or not the spring sales rebound/ surge happens will forecast what the future holds IMO. Overall I agree with the prediction that the used market will cool off compared to a pandemic-era boom.

I used Facebook marketplace to sell mine. It was a Canyon CF - I paid 4K, but I sold it for 2K. Unfortunately, people that have over 5K to spend on bikes, simply prefer to buy them new from the store so that 1) they know they haven't been ridden to death and 2) they get the warranty. Another reason for the slow sales is the season. It's Winter. Only few weirdos like us STILL ride outdoors. Many ether stop completely for hiking for skiing, or they just go to Zwift.

Awesome INSIGHT 💯👍 Thank you

I just bought a mint 2020 Stumpjumper Alloy with upgraded brakes, bars, stem, grips, pedals and air fork for $1000 US. It doesn’t even have a speck of dirt on it, tires still have the little nubs on them.

Great job!!! Very well said

I was going to foolishly sell my bike in the fall, knowing full well I would regret it (financial issues)…. I am actually glad I’m not “stuck” with it and will be able to enjoy my bike next season.

The most desirable bikes have priced themselves out of the market. Who wants to spend £6000 (GBP) on a new bike when you can get a used bike, a year or two older, that's almost the same spec for half the price or sometimes less. Economics in action. Most people just aren't willing to spend used car money on a new mountain bike and mountain bike companies will learn that the hard way.

Great video 👍🏻 keep coming with the good content

Now that’s what I’m talking about. Damn great video and perspective on the market. Thank you!

Last week I bought a 2020 Cube Analog for £325. The previous owner bought it 18 months ago during lockdown for £799 on a bit of a whim, went out on it a total of 4 rides (all on a local country road) totaling "about 25 miles". Practically given away!!

I've made every possible wrong decision selling my bikes of late. Sold way too cheap at start of pandemic before we knew about the massive inventory shortage. And now I'm trying to sell a couple bikes I should have listed last season.

I know it isn't apples to apples but you can buy a lightly used KTM XCW 300 2 stroke which is an absolute dream on the trails and full of technology with 12" of travel, amazing brakes and a freakin' engine for about the same as a nice spec'd mountain bike. Something went wrong with the mountain bike market. Also, moto is so fun, the community is great and if you are good on a MTB, you can transition pretty quickly. I've ridden in Bellingham since 1991 and just have to say, modern moto is more fun now, give it a try. Maybe it's because we had it to ourselves "back in the day" or whatever.

Great video. I offered a guy on PB $2700 for a $3000 frame in October. He said no, and here we are in January and it’s still listed. Today I would not offer more than $2000. The market is balancing out, but sellers are still thinking it’s 2021. Lol.

Great info

The lower end of the used bike market is slowing too. I watch vintage road bikes and some sit on the online markets for a long time.

By all means keep doing the vids, as it great advice etc, thanx!

This is actually a good correction. It was just ridiculous for quite a few years. Also I need a new lightweight trail bike for the upcoming season so timing works out for me. ;)

great content! bike prices are really high, good to have a used bike market

Valid points. Can you maybe do a follow up video in April? Tough to assess the strength of a warm weather industry when we're about to get a foot of snow here in Denver. On the flip side my buddy sold his fat bike in less than a week 😁

Very interesting. Gonna have to start looking 👀

Hey Josh, I'm sitting up in Powell RIver, B.C., Canada in the PNW. I got into MTB more seriously about 5 years ago. I'm doing the BC Bike race this year...if I can get my fitness up! After I learned some basic mechanic skills, I will never buy a complete bike again. So I bought a Nukeproof Reactor frame new, off of Chainreactioncycles. Just over C$2000, full carbon, factory shock. I took my components from my custom Scott Genius, put them on the Nukeproof, sold the frame for about $1600, now I am good to go for the race. Online websites ALWAYS have awesome sales end of year, I have been able to afford this sport by shopping great specials which has been around since I started. I have bought and sold LOTS of stuff on pinkbike as well. My point?...If Yeti (and others) are asking $5000 for a frame, people will realize this is a cash grab and they are now going to suffer for it. You can build a top tier custom bike for $5000-$6000 if you are just a bit savvy with some self educated skills.

Great video Josh, since that last video I started checking out the marketplace for Ontario and the prices are still in Lockdown "bikes are the new Toilet paper mode" where you find a 10 year old poorly maintained 26 entry level bike trying to be sold at the original retail price. I work at a bike shop lucky for me we just do custom stuff, but so far no sale prices from any of our distributors maybe by spring we will see something. But I totally agree with your views and really hope that some stuff comes down in price.

I always thought it was weird that bike people didn't think their bikes should depreciate heavily. They aren't a Ferrari, they are more like dirt bike. They get heavily used off-road, you can't tell how many times the previous owner stuffed it, and they usually want more for a modified bike when virtually everyone wants to buy something stock. Take it from someone in the car world, you don't get extra for your extras, you get less because you screwed with it. And besides that, it's normally young professionals that buy expensive mountain bikes for weekend warrior activities and they are getting laid off in record numbers right now. The money conveyor belt is over for the tech crowd, the suck is in. Also another bit of advice, I'm in the market to buy right now, you can have my money, but the ads SUCK. I don't know every make and model and I'm not going to Google every bike with a 2-5k price tag on marketplace to see if your price is insane or not, I don't know what your mods are supposed to be worth, and I don't even know if your mods actually work better than what it came with. Have a sense of reality here, take some time and market to your audience, because if they are a bike geek they already have the bike they want, so you are selling most often to passively motivated buyers.

Great video. Here I am in July 23’ and found your video because I listed some race bikes I no longer used. I wasn’t getting any hits, so I searched the market and damn! used Prices are rock bottom. Good insight because your predictions are right on 😢

All the specialized base models went down. I remember when my new 2013 Rockhopper Sport cost me $780 on sale and now it's $565. It's a good time for beginners.

Good! High End regular and ebikes at £8-12k are taking the pish! Been eyeballing Specialized Turbo Levo Comps for around £3-3.5k on BookFace Marketplace.

As a kid who barely has any money, I've been looking for a decent mountain bike (above walmart quality) on many different apps, and it is just hard to find anything good below $500. I got bitten by the mtb bug, but It tears me apart every day when I wake up to realize I am not "there" yet. I hope to get a job soon, but I hope prices go down so I can at least get out and have a great ride.

The bike industry is going through a HUGE correction right now, that was originally supposed to happen 3 years ago... In the past couple months, several shops have closed in my area, and the ones that are open either are being bought by trek, or can't find people to work for them!

i like these updates on industry

I’ve been telling all my buddies who need to upgrade, now or in the next few months is a great time to find the bike you want. It’s a buyers market.

Bike shops in NC are packed full of inventory and have been for a long time and used market bikes are sitting for sale here as well. I'm kicking myself that I bought my 12YO a new SJ Evo frame when Specialized had the 25% off black Friday sale, I could have waited a couple months and bought a whole bike for only a little more. 😲 This summer is going to be ugly for sellers.

This is one of the most fun parts of the sport, is finding value in things that are subjectively undervalued, or otherwise disproportionately unappreciated by faulty "common knowledge". There's lot of great technology out there, finding what works best, holds up, and fits your aesthetic preferences is an rewarding aspect of the sport. Definitely the flip side of this is miscalculating as a consumer and buying something not backed by warranty that fails, or overpaying for something, or just realizing something doesn't suit you and then having to sell it... there's a zen approach to this stuff, and who can feel at peace when their bike is not working and making a lot noise?

Could it be too that the market is correcting itself. New bike prices were out of control and people are finally waking up.

You should do an update video around the end of march/April when the bike season really picks up in North America.

It's awesome I've seen bikes on sale I'm so excited 🌴🌴🌴

I'm still blown away how a $1,300 bike is beginner. When I rode BMX professionally in the 90s, a $600 bike was full tilt. I can damn near get a dirt motorcycle for the same price of a transition. Sad to think my $1,200 2012 Camber Comp pro 26 i got used during covid for $500 I thought was a steal, shows me how much of a "size competition" MTB seems to be behind scenes.

I’m planning on flying to Whistler in late august from Manitoba, buying a bike used, and shipping it home in a hockey bag.

Man I miss the 'ham! The Reno/Tahoe market is still out of control, but it is getting better. I think the easy availability of cash down here props prices up a bit more, unfortunately. Maybe I can start getting a decent price by summer? It's hard to keep 5 kids riding to school, on trails and in the snow, hahaha. Thanks for the content!

Location is also a factor, you live in a prime biking state. I live in South Carolina. We have "left in the yard and rusted" Walmart bikes trying to be sold for 300. Very few high end stuff being sold.

That stumpjumper is now 2000 new!

It’s winter time genius this happens every year. The price of cold weather gear goes up and summer gear goes down…

The Market is going to have a rough year, people IN the industry are even in agreement. That said, MTB prices have been too high for over a decade (yeah, I'm that guy), so maybe this will be an equalizer. Maybe companies will now have to figure out how to produce affordable bikes, instead of trying to market hype the lifestyle so hard. I get that material costs go up, and shipping too, especially post Covid. But prices have been nuts since long before supply chain excuses. The industry needs a reset. A bike shouldn't be a financial "investment", and resale value should be far lower down the priority scale than it is. The status of the used market is a great example. And the host said it perfect: bike tech hasn't really increased in say the last 5 years (I'd say 10, but...) Yet prices just go up in kind as if the new "advancements" are the reason. It's a difficult point to see, especially if one is immersed deep in the culture, but is no less valid.

Nothing beats new.

I have a garage full of bikes that I guess I'll be keeping now. I don't plan on buying anything that I don't absolutely need in 2023. This applies to everything, not just bike stuff.

Bikes are WAAAAY to expensive now days.....because people pay. Will be interesting to see where this goes. I got my popcorn 🍿.

you have a very good point i was looking for a second hand bike but the reason i didnt buy one was because the warranty doesn't aply for the sencond owner on the canyon touque al

If you live in an area where there is a high amount of riders, there will be an over saturation of the market. So for people living in a more lukewarm market we would have to travel or deal with the hassle of getting it shipped

Best financial reporting ever

I bought enduro ebike last year.... this year the price jumped around 2000USD up ... market is going bananas.

The pandemic saw a big increase in people getting into biking. Now, with restrictions eased, many of those people have moved away from biking and their bikes are now up for sale, flooding the used market with barely used bikes.

I used to buy barely used bike parts here in germany over consumer marketplaces and build up bikes to sell again. Could make some profit, up to 50% more than the parts did cost. But the market has crashed so hard in the last months. Lots of bikes available for incredible prices NEW. Noone buys "good" bikes from private persons anymore. 6 months ago there were hardly any good specced complete bikes available in medium and large sizes, hence the good used market. I gave up building bikes. Too bad, I could upgrade all of my own bikes with the profits of the sold bikes and did not have to spend a penny of my salary ;)

I think brands will have to lower their prices. They raised them due to the increased demand (and probably also increased costs) but they need to start lowering them back down. I got a 2019 Spectral in 2020 right at the start of the pandemic and it was an absolute steal. Couldn't be happier.

I love the eclectic items on the shelves behind you may I make a suggestion & get a RC preferably a MTB 🤔

Waiting for this to happen to the motorcycle market.

The manager of my local bike store predicted this just before Thanksgiving last year. There's also an owner of a bike store talking about this on RU-vid about a month ago. Same kind of thing is happening in the automobile market.

I have watched a couple of your videos and you really are helping potential buyers so thank you. But I know you are a mountain biker but do you have any insight on gravel and touring bikes regarding pricing used market vs new?

The market for used bikes is definitely slowing...friend of mine just sold a 2021 S-Works SJ Evo with just a few paint chips (the usual) for $4k...it was a $10k bike new! Someone got a massive bargain in that sale

Interesting video, i live in France, and for the past two years, selling used bikes over 1000$ became really hard. People have lost interest in cycling, the cost of life is increasing, common people with money will prefer eBikes. So I'm not surprised there will be tons of bargains on the aftermarket. Cannot wait to see what happens in 2024 with manufacturers stock side. 💣

I saw this situation in the used bike market and feel i got the deal of the century when I bought a 2yr old trek Slash 9.8 with fox 36, fox X2, dt swisse hubs, RSC brakes, drive train upgrade, carbon bars and stem upgraded and carbon wheels for 4k. There's some deals to be found for sure.

This bikes S-SJ MSRP was $2200 when they purchased it in the last couple years. Specialized prices went up. Also Marin, polygon, and factory direct still are better buys at lower prices.

Just bought a mint transition sentinel alloy gx build used and it was 2300 less than retail, with one up bars and stamp 3 pedals included!

I bought and sold high end bikes during the pandemic, it's SUCH a different market now. I'm curious how the boutique brands will do trying sell their high priced bikes this year....

For actual riders this is heaven if you’re looking to upgrade your bike either parts of it or the whole thing

You also have companies like Pacific cycle really stepping it up. I've got a schwinnaxum DP and for less than $500 including tax, it came with tubeless ready 29x3.5(I might be wrong on that width) wheels and tires an internally routed dropper post, tapered head tube, 1x8 narrow wide with a clutch derailleur (axe branded but identical to box components) and a decent air fork with a lockout. The air fork is definitely the weakest part of the whole kit, It's a decent entry level. Fort and we'll do fine as long as you're not taking giant jumps. The fork is really soft and while being able to bounce off of things might give a new writer confidence with experience it feels imprecise and really wallow on banked corners or jumps. It's also a straight shaft with an adapter to fit the tapered head tube in the frame. It is kind of nice that you can reuse the adapter so that you can use basically any aftermarket fork with the bike, but it's also really the only drawback compared to what specialized is offering.

Hi Josh, I really enjoy your videos, always very helpful. I am looking to buy an emtb, what are your thoughts regarding this and how many hours is too much on a battery?

My son and daughter bought me a 2021 used Cannondale Scaple for 4k used a year ago from the owner of a bike shop who rode it lightly for 8 months . The bike prices in at 6k new . So this may have begun a bit earlier in the used market . Now I don't see any price drops for new components and you still find low levels of inventory probably maintaining that higher price point . So yes Josh the used market maybe a better place to go for price but we must remember you never know what you get buying online used without a warranty and basically sold as is .

good, some need to go down. sorry but its true.

Um, hello? Devoted cyclist here. The problem I see is this. As a kid I used to go to the Hardware Store with my Dad. There he could kick around ideas he had for home improvement. Other neighbors circulated through as well. He spent real money on product but the real reason he was there was the relationship with store owners. Five years ago bike shops operated similarly - bikes, purchases, service, ideas. Like it or not it was a gathering place for cyclists and others wanting same. We too and do spend real dollars. Now it’s all about marketing, promotion and sales of the next new thing - the thing(s) we don’t need. You’ve lost us! Bring back the bike dudes and gals. You’ve lost your way! 😢

Lol I was just looking at that orange stumpy online over the weekend, I was debating on making an offer!

It's funny that you guys have these prices. The used bikes here in Canada are close to the price in the shops. Many owners want their money back claiming upgrades they made. And the prices for the bikes, used or new are is the price of a brand new car.

Makes more sense now to just upgrade your current ride it's what I did really happy with it and it's less wasteful.

The wife and I own 6 bikes, 2 foldies we keep in our lsa, 2 big wheels and 2 urban bikes. All of them Giant, retail total over $4k.. We got them used, not a spot of rust on chains. We PAID a total of $82 for ALL of them.

The manufacturers are also laying people off in droves and new bike prices are dropping like a rock.

Couple of things, Forks are probably the most tricky to sell bc of varying steer tube lengths; so if yours is cut a for your current bike it is sometimes difficult to find the right buyer, i have sold probably 3 forks the last 3-4yrs and i haven't noticed the discount going up or down, it's usually pretty steep though especially if its already been cut. On the bike part, i am confused as to what economic model you are using other than "eyeballing" current data w/o any graphs showing a trend line. Of course you would buy used (don't forget about shipping off Pinkbike or some other site into your used price) if you were getting a $1400-1600 discount on used v new and didn't mind used (i will come back to that)--i don't really see those as huge discounts btw, seem normal to a little short given the value of a bike generally drops 20% after it hits dirt or tarmac the first time. but again its two data points in one timeframe, the conclusions are flawed by a lack of data--you still could be right, but i wouldn't take you to Vegas w. me. The other questions affecting the used market both price and time available are 1) how used? That's when the buyer upon closer inspection looks at that used bike and says "wow its not Like New!" 2) And how available is new? With new being stocked on many brands sites, i know this is counterintuitive but that supply can and often will push used prices down compared to a year or more ago when you couldn't get new to save your life or at least extend the bikes time on Pinkbike resell--they really would have data to crunch btw. The silent hand in all of this is The Psychology of Consumption whereby ppl like new, they like the satisfaction of new, they will power through buyers remorse for new, and so w/ that you may also see used sitting on a site longer given the availability of new. I do think bc of New being in greater supply you of course will see new prices come down and come closer to used, which means the big loser in all of this and perhaps this is what you were saying is the Used market seller. Okay i am done.

Just remember, these bike companies made record profits past few years while the rest of most society suffered. They dug their own graves and we can dig it deeper by boycotting them and really get their prices down. Maybe this is the chance to make the consumer matter once again ;)

Perhaps brands could use some of their marketing money to help build more trails, and more transport facilities to get more people riding. It would help soak up a lot of new and used stock if people re-engaged with mountain biking or even gravel riding. The US is so car centric that people have to drive hours to get somewhere interesting.

I don't think these expensive $5000+ bikes are a good representation of the market as a whole. Bikes that expensive just aren't as common, so it's that much harder to find a buyer when selling locally. Demand for more "reasonably" priced bikes is much higher, since there are significantly more people who are interested but not willing to spend the equivalent of a used car

Prices are all over the place in the used market right now, and good deals on good bikes are just sitting there with no interest. I've seen people listing their bikes at stupid high prices, not willing to negotiate and others priced to sell. I picked up a great deal on a like new C 30 (base model) 2022 Rocky Mountain Element. I have a longer travel trail bike which I love, but most of my riding is more XC/trail focused and I like to do marathon races occasionally so I thought a short travel trail bike would be a better fit for me overall. However, now I am trying to sell my 2 year old Pivot Switchblade with a nice upgraded carbon wheelset in great condition and I am getting no bites at all with it listed at less than half of what I paid and put into it! I've dropped the price twice already, its the lowest priced one now on Pinkbike, especially with its build and upgrades, and been sitting there for almost 2 months! I've sold many mountain bikes over the years, and have a pretty good idea of what things actually sell for used, and I've always priced mine very fair and reasonable.. blows my mind sometimes what people expect to get for their used bikes! I have a friend who may buy it, I hope, lol.. But if she doesn't, I think I'll just keep it. I could use the cash for sure right now, but its still a great bike that I will definitely ride and I'm not willing to take more of a loss than that in selling it. I was hoping I could sell it and use part of those funds to upgrade the Element, but it's beginning to look like I might be stuck with a 3 bike quiver instead of 2, which in the end is not such a bad problem to have😜

dang i was looking at buying that very same listing for the canyon CFR in the summer, cant believe its stil up