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The Limits of Russia's War Machine || Peter Zeihan 

Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Recent events in the Ukrainian War have shed light on the state of Russia’s ability to resupply its war effort. Even elite Russian troops are being forced to rely on older, reserve equipment-including tanks built well over half a century ago. Moscow’s deep inventory of Cold War-era materiel has kept Russian troops in the fight, but not necessarily fighting: a recent attack by Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia eliminated most of a Russian airborne division fighting in tanks likely older than their fathers.
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11 апр 2024

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Комментарии : 3 тыс.   
@1302someguy
@1302someguy Месяц назад
Former tanker here. Oryx had documented just under 3k destroyed tanks almost all of which are T72 or newer. Generously assume they have documented 75% of actual losses then Russia has lost 4k relatively modern tanks. Tanks stored in the open for 20 years or more are just metal husks that are barely worth repairing (rust and time are a nightmare). I doubt the Russians are fielding reserves in much logical order, they are simply pushing whatever they can get running to the front. I doubt they have more than 2 or 3k more that they can cobble together of any type. Maybe 2 years tops before they are all waking.
@physetermacrocephalus2209
@physetermacrocephalus2209 Месяц назад
Too bad all the ignorant and Politicians and* civillians do not understand this and are litteraly throwing the war.
@andersbjrnsen7203
@andersbjrnsen7203 Месяц назад
In a theatre with drones seeing everything and drones dropping AT muntions from above I think I would prefer to walk anyway...
@vitviper2
@vitviper2 Месяц назад
Bingo! They're scraping the bottom of the barrel just so they can try to maintain any pressure they can on the front. Once they run out of the old rust buckets to throw at the front, we're likely going to see some interesting things.
@mrcrowley109
@mrcrowley109 Месяц назад
Former MBT (yes, NATO) TECHNICIAN here. Oryx lies constantly then walks back his information. Russians haven't lost anywhere near what western nonsense is reporting. I love Zeihan's overall geopolitical analysis, but he's been wrong over and over and over with this Uk/Ru conflict. The Russians are slowly moving forward virtually unopposed right now. The only person online making any damned sense is Col. MacGregor. Well, the guy that runs "history legends" is pretty good at impartial takes. Russian casualties are around 50k now, Ukraine KIA (not just casuality) is nearing 500k. All the west has done is destroyed Ukraine, for no reason. We've butchered our own economies, our own militaries, any sense of good faith we had anywhere in the world, destroyed our own cultures, and allowed a certain HEAVILY overrepresented demographic to influence us into near oblivion. AGAIN.
@Quickshot0
@Quickshot0 Месяц назад
In some ways that's already almost to optimistic for them, Covertcabal has been buying up sat pics of their storage areas about once every 6 months. And those are now about half empty, though last count was awhile ago. Also in practise you can't always get good pics that are recent due to cloud cover, so even at the count dates some pics are months old. So based on that their stocks are already rather reduced as well and you'd give them at most 2 years at current expenditures of equipment. And as you say, you can wonder about the worst quarter of equipment. Though it's worth noting Russia has been scrapping some equipment over the years, and one would presume they scrapped the worst ones first. Admittedly they probably also sold the best to other places like India, so there is that as well. Still whatever the exact details, those stores are depleting at a pretty appreciable rate and will start giving problems maintaining the fronts current expenditures some time in the next year or two. And at that point it would be as you say, a lot more walking. Though I kind of figure that as their flow of new stuff gets tight they might finally see some sanity in not throwing away their equipment for minimal gains like that.... Maybe? Still if they do see such sanity, getting them completely on foot might be more difficult then. Though their offensive potential would obviously be mostly used up in such a case and Ukraine would presumably if reequipped enough get its next chance to try and break through.
@FredrikHaugen
@FredrikHaugen Месяц назад
They might have a couple of millions of men in their twenties, but not all are fit for fight, nor will accept such a fate. The actual numbers of the people they can realistically press into uniform is probably a lost smaller. Unless they start to force people from Moscow/St Petersburg a lot more, which opens up another can of worms.
@RafaMazurekRMZ
@RafaMazurekRMZ Месяц назад
But they also dont force only 20s ppl, its common to push 30 and 40s years old there
@hartyewh1
@hartyewh1 Месяц назад
Young people who weren't serving early on have good access to worldwide news sources and likely at the very least know that it's a pointless meant grinder that's waiting for them. I can't imagine much of anything that can be described as a soldier coming out anymore.
@Samji3877
@Samji3877 Месяц назад
what can of worms @FredrikHaugen?
@hartyewh1
@hartyewh1 Месяц назад
@@Samji3877 Far more educated and worldly people a good part of whom oppose the war and Putin. Giving them guns is a risky thing which is why it's been avoided.
@Bayard1503
@Bayard1503 Месяц назад
People that don't accept get 10 years in prison... in a Russian prison!! Yesterday I read a story about a guy from Crimea that refused to fight so they actually even accused him of treason. So yeah, it's not about accepting, there is no alternative to fighting...
@davideriksson399
@davideriksson399 Месяц назад
As a volunteer in the Ukrainian army, listening to you gives me hope.
@davideriksson399
@davideriksson399 25 дней назад
@@ryanconard87 Haha! We've managed quite well so far. And the longer this war takes the more difficulty Russia will have.
@lembergnative7731
@lembergnative7731 22 дня назад
thank you for your service. Slava Ukraini!
@Gary-lz5eb
@Gary-lz5eb 4 дня назад
I’m American. Thank you. We should be standing next to you. Fight hard
@sherrile
@sherrile Месяц назад
I seem to remember seeing a report recently (DW World possibly) that Russia is recruiting young men from developing countries in Asia and Africa by offering money and Russian citizenship. In this report, they interviewed the family of a young man from Nepal who joined up, was put through a rather short training program, and then was sent to the front lines where he was killed. His family said that the Russian government wanted the equivalent of $1500 to ship his body back to his family.
@UnCannyValley67
@UnCannyValley67 Месяц назад
😂
@AlteredState1123
@AlteredState1123 Месяц назад
Nice scam.
@user-rl9tg8mz2r
@user-rl9tg8mz2r Месяц назад
In the UK they are called Ghurkas
@isoldam
@isoldam Месяц назад
@@user-rl9tg8mz2r The UK still has Ghurka forces because of their long history with the British armed forces. The Ghurka have a great reputation in the UK, which they justly earned. The UK provides a good deal for service and cares about the lives of Ghurkas. Russia provides a crap deal for service and cares nothing for even their own soldier's lives. Any foreigner who signs up for Russia's armed forces is crazy. Not worth it.
@marcob.7801
@marcob.7801 Месяц назад
Is that BS fake news or genuine fact????
@richardbell7678
@richardbell7678 Месяц назад
The other thing about the older reserve tanks, like the T-62 and T-54/55 is that there is less equipment on them that is worth stealing, so they are more complete than the more modern tanks that do have stuff worth stealing.
@danreed7889
@danreed7889 Месяц назад
What does one steal off a modem tank?
@eduwino151
@eduwino151 Месяц назад
@@danreed7889 modern in russia means tanks built in the 80s there were entire fleets of T72s with their engines and optics stolen and sold by corrupt generals to the black market
@Earaldur
@Earaldur Месяц назад
​@@danreed7889a wide variety of components can be sold as scrap metal - think copper wiring, aluminium etc. There is also a black market for things like the explosives in the reactive armour, as well as expensive components like the gun sights, night vision optics and radios.
@danreed7889
@danreed7889 Месяц назад
@@Earaldur Do have any proof of that? Do you know how physically large tank sights are? They are not easily removed components. I call BS.
@traumajock
@traumajock Месяц назад
I betting that the T-72s in reserve got robbed for parts to repair tanks in active service even before the war got started.
@cfc1001001cfc
@cfc1001001cfc Месяц назад
I never would have guessed a year ago that the one person who was going to do the most to slow down the Russiadämmerung was going to be the American Speaker of the House.
@lettucesalad3560
@lettucesalad3560 Месяц назад
The former President has been working for Putin since 2015.
@bosatsu76
@bosatsu76 Месяц назад
the gop pounded their chests about russia for 70 years... Till trump showed up. Then they went completely silent.
@j.dunlop8295
@j.dunlop8295 Месяц назад
Putin's this week asked Uzbekistan for 500,000 tons of petrol (gasoline) that's 400 mil. gal.s! Apparently Ukrainians refinery sanctions (✈️💥) are working?
@GoodMrFe
@GoodMrFe Месяц назад
It's a pretty good wake up call to all of EU. Just like covid showed how disorganized everything is during a pandemic, MJ is now showing what it means to rely on US military aid. These things just come at terrible cost and my heart breaks every time I see a terrorist attack by Russia where normal oridanary folk get the worst of it. It is so awful it cannot be put into words. I really hope UA prevails and this will be viewed as overall positive in history books, as an event that tightens all of EUs security, but I can't see it that way right now. The losses are just terrible. And I can't imagine the people who live in UA will ever forgive this or forget this. It's saddening we still have to struggle with people like Putin in our society today.
@j.dunlop8295
@j.dunlop8295 Месяц назад
Putin's this week asked Uzbekistan for 500,000 tons of petrol (gasoline) that's 400 mil. gal.s! Apparently Ukrainians refinery sanctions (✈️💥) are working? 💙🇺🇦🩵🇹🇼
@aajas
@aajas Месяц назад
"Say if you had a newer tank, say a T-72..." 😂
@rapier1954
@rapier1954 Месяц назад
Say if you actually listened to the video instead of making irrelevant comments.
@xisotopex
@xisotopex Месяц назад
the T-72B3M is for all intents and purposes a fairly modern tank
@willl7780
@willl7780 Месяц назад
@Shinshocks555 it smoked an abrams
@willl7780
@willl7780 Месяц назад
@Shinshocks555 one side is moving forward and 1 is not
@LilMissMurder3409
@LilMissMurder3409 Месяц назад
@@willl7780 What's your point? The Abrams isn't invulnerable.
@skeewiffenator
@skeewiffenator Месяц назад
So this is the super light version of this conversation. For more detail see perun. As the Russian stock runs dry you will probably see both increasingly ancient and modern hulks side by side as the reserves dry up was the prediction and it looks like we’re there
@dustinyoung3069
@dustinyoung3069 Месяц назад
I'd love to see Perun do an "executive summary" version of his videos. Gimmie something 15-20 min. I lack the time and attention span to watch a power point presentation for an hour. Great content, but a smaller meal, please...
@mitanni0
@mitanni0 Месяц назад
Agreed. If u want depth, consult sources like Perun!
@HaxxorElite
@HaxxorElite Месяц назад
​@@dustinyoung3069theyre well worth watching
@advancetotabletop5328
@advancetotabletop5328 Месяц назад
Russia’s already raided the museum weeks (months?) ago for ancient tanks, so…
@jord019
@jord019 Месяц назад
Why is no one considering that russia are building multiple new tanks per week?
@awlex
@awlex Месяц назад
It's questionable whether Russia had 10,000 tanks in reserve when the war started. And storages are half-empty now as seen from satellite images.
@rogerwilco2
@rogerwilco2 Месяц назад
Most recent publicly available images show their reserve/mothball storages to be even more depleted, mose have lost 70-90% of their pre-war stocks. The appearance of the T-54/55 also is a sign as we didn’t see those for the first two years of the war. They are likely running low on all of their more modern tanks if their elite units are now even getting the oldest, least capable models.
@douglassun8456
@douglassun8456 Месяц назад
I agree that Peter is giving the Russians too much credit here. Perun pointed out over a year ago that a good number of them were bound to be suitable only for parts or just completely useless. They've been tapping that reserve for a while now, so you can count on a lot of those T-55s and T-72s being brewed up. The number left that can be pressed back into service is not close to 10k.
@dennythedavinchi3832
@dennythedavinchi3832 Месяц назад
You are right, most of soviet equipments were dumped more than half of the assets. So some of military channel verified visible tanks through Google Maps and estimated Russia could have had little more than 6000 reserves.
@frankrenda2519
@frankrenda2519 Месяц назад
24000 tanks get your facts correct
@Quickshot0
@Quickshot0 Месяц назад
@@frankrenda2519That's outdated info, over the years Russia sold or scrapped many of those. Before the war started their official total number of tanks by their own figures was under 10k, I think it was something like 7k-8k, somewhere around there.
@jfrankcarr
@jfrankcarr Месяц назад
The tank situation sounds like the difference between repairing a simple 50's Chevy V8 versus fixing a 2010's vehicle with oodles of electronic this and computerized that.
@j.dunlop8295
@j.dunlop8295 Месяц назад
Putin's this week asked Uzbekistan for 500,000 tons of petrol (gasoline) that's 400 mil. gal.s! Apparently Ukrainians refinery sanctions (✈️💥) are working?
@michaeldavis3819
@michaeldavis3819 Месяц назад
True, but a simple Chevy V8 has a massive aftermarket to support its overhaul due to decades of hobbyists creating a demand for parts (and even then, the last couple of years we've seen crappy solid and hydraulic cams and lifters hitting the market and immediately self-destructing due to market shifts towards roller cams). Machinists are familiar with the 350; harnesses and brake parts and seat covers and carburetors and transmission adapters and fenders and fuel injection retrofit kits are all available online; there's been 70 years or more of experimentation and upgrades for it at virtually all levels of the industry. Nothing like that is true for the T-55. A better analogy would be like trying to bring a city bus back from the scrapyard and put it back into service in a hurry, or worse yet, a ship that's been in mothballs for 70 years.
@rotm4447
@rotm4447 Месяц назад
the only t-55s they've been using are as ied drones. Zeihan is exaggerating here.
@es330td
@es330td Месяц назад
@@michaeldavis3819 Even if your analogy is accurate, it can still be done. If a vehicle requires a computer based part to run such as a fuel injection controller and you don't have it you are at a hard stop. If it's mechanical there is at least a path forward.
@a.brekkan4965
@a.brekkan4965 Месяц назад
Soon the Russians will only have shovels left!
@wwzulu
@wwzulu Месяц назад
Hi, Peter. Just wanted to say how much I appreciate that in 5 minutes you manage to say so much that is valuable and summaries all there is to know. Good job and take care
@lachlanbell8390
@lachlanbell8390 Месяц назад
Imagine believing that Zeihan is telling you "all there is to know".... let alone that he's doing it in 5 minutes. This kind of naive, gullible malleability is why the West is able to do what it does. A soft population of easily-manipulated lemmings.
@christophermurphy4511
@christophermurphy4511 Месяц назад
@@lachlanbell8390 Zulu never said that Zeihan said "all there is to know". They said he summarized well. In case you don't know, there is a big difference. But let's compare Western media with state controlled Russian media. What do you thing about that comparison?
@lachlanbell8390
@lachlanbell8390 Месяц назад
@@christophermurphy4511 Are... are you... are you... serious? Those words were literally verbatim from their comment: _"I appreciate that in 5 minutes you manage to say so much that is valuable and _*_summaries[sic] all there is to know"_* As for your intended "gotcha" - when was the last time _you_ watched any Russian media? Can you put a date on it? Have you _ever_ watched _any_ Russian media?
@christophermurphy4511
@christophermurphy4511 Месяц назад
@@lachlanbell8390 I'll be, you are correct Lachlan.
@davidshapiro5616
@davidshapiro5616 Месяц назад
Personally I don't think there's many 20 somethings that have had a formal education left in Russia. They're all here in Cyprus working in the IT industry.
@Mr72Dolphins
@Mr72Dolphins Месяц назад
Russia should consider the horse as a "new" wonder weapon
@janhgh3400
@janhgh3400 Месяц назад
Horses come pre-equiped with 2 bio-technological optical sensors! No need for retro-fitting digital thingamabobs! Unfortunately they identify EVERYTHING as dangerous...
@ScubesFTW
@ScubesFTW Месяц назад
They can bite AND kick
@sandrothenecromancer6810
@sandrothenecromancer6810 Месяц назад
The golden horde returning to its roots.
@j.dunlop8295
@j.dunlop8295 Месяц назад
Putin's this week asked Uzbekistan for 500,000 tons of petrol (gasoline) that's 400 mil. gal.s! Apparently Ukrainians refinery sanctions (✈️💥) are working?
@jwarmstrong
@jwarmstrong Месяц назад
The horse is a walking meat locker so no need for food supplies to be shipped to the front
@kadourimdou43
@kadourimdou43 Месяц назад
Does this time scale assume that Ukraine can’t slow down their supplies. What if the hits on the Russian economy can shorten the time scale, that Russians can continue.
@yt.damian
@yt.damian Месяц назад
Shortening by 1 or 2 or even by 4 years probably wont be enough. All the issues that Russia is having - the Ukrainians are having similar level issues.
@teekay_1
@teekay_1 Месяц назад
@@yt.damian Ukraine is running out of people.
@borisbadenov8613
@borisbadenov8613 Месяц назад
If Ukraine can step up the hits on critical infrastructure, on active military bases in Russia and on weapon stockpiles they stand a good chance of winning or, at the least, forcing a stalemate on the Russians. Of course, the equation would change drastically if Russia's client states decided to rebel.
@powershift2024
@powershift2024 Месяц назад
Sounds like he's advocating for continued Western funding until they're beating each other with sticks and rocks. Thanks Pete, always get a little Military Industrial Complex slant in there...
@manmonkee
@manmonkee Месяц назад
@@teekay_1 Thats very true but the nature of the conflict is different for them, The war is one of survival foisted upon them, they have no choice but to fight. Ukraine cannot end the war, Russia can end it tomorrow.
@estellebarry9357
@estellebarry9357 Месяц назад
Tanks don't win/ lose wars - yes this is a land war -but it doesn't come down to tanks only its more complex - Standing with Ukraine from the UK X
@fredhapgood7885
@fredhapgood7885 Месяц назад
I don't understand how the Russians think they can hold on to the country even if they win. What have the last fifty years taught us about the powers of counter-insurgency??
@seandelaney1700
@seandelaney1700 Месяц назад
My prediction day one of the war (when every expert including PZ said Ukraine did not stand a chance) was that if they having Western supplies Russia cannot ever control Ukraine, due to their willingness to fight.
@PatrickKQ4HBD
@PatrickKQ4HBD Месяц назад
Russia doesn't want or care about Ukraine. They want the mountain ranges beyond and Ukraine is an obstacle in their way.
@sashap5747
@sashap5747 Месяц назад
The east of the country is heavily pro Russian. My family is. All neighbours are. It won't be a problem to hold on to it. The west of Ukraine is simply not in Russian plans as a part of Russia.
@russvet
@russvet Месяц назад
There will be no country 😂
@sashap5747
@sashap5747 Месяц назад
The thing is - Russians plan to hold only to the territories with heavily pro Russian population. They will leave other territories as soon as they get nuetrality guarantees
@chipsatterly4902
@chipsatterly4902 Месяц назад
Putin's problem...."You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." Peter always shows how "little" details end up being being a really big deal!!
@Skyblade12
@Skyblade12 Месяц назад
Peter thinks you can analyze a war by only looking at one side. His unwillingness to provide a similar breakdown of Ukrainian forces and losses does not inspire confidence.
@user-fe5lr9zt3y
@user-fe5lr9zt3y Месяц назад
Peter the Shyster,most uninformed you tuber on any subject,period.Russia is fighting 54 countries of nazi West alone and kicking their ass?
@Hentai-Semite
@Hentai-Semite Месяц назад
Your problem - youstill fall for the same lies after 2 years. Such a lack of IQ is so american.
@Tracker5111
@Tracker5111 Месяц назад
@@user-fe5lr9zt3y No, most western countries are not supporting the war to their fullest capability. If the NATO armies marched into Russia... it'd be game over for Russia
@christopherlee7334
@christopherlee7334 Месяц назад
​@@user-fe5lr9zt3yAh, yes, the "Nazi" west, when your own Wagner group is full of proud and open Nazis. How is it out there on the front lines? Come on, are you scared to serve the "mighty" Russian army?
@VonKirda
@VonKirda Месяц назад
Wondering when the Kaspian areas will start to make trouble.
@greendsnow
@greendsnow Месяц назад
After Manchuria events.
@jeanlamb5026
@jeanlamb5026 Месяц назад
That's why so many men are drafted from there so they won't have any ability to revolt.
@UnnamedBridgeburner
@UnnamedBridgeburner Месяц назад
Keep in mind the 6.5M men aren’t just for the military, they’re also the workers needed to keep the industrial base going. So it’s more like another 2-3M soldiers at a stretch.
@Bill-xx2yh
@Bill-xx2yh Месяц назад
Thank you Peter, seems I’m always looking for your updates.
@user-fe5lr9zt3y
@user-fe5lr9zt3y Месяц назад
Peter the Shyster,most uninformed you tuber on any subject,period.Russia is fighting 54 countries of nazi West alone and kicking their ass?
@edwinsiala3373
@edwinsiala3373 Месяц назад
​@@user-fe5lr9zt3ywell said. Pater is high on meth and his viewers are clearly delusional.
@BillWoodillustrator
@BillWoodillustrator Месяц назад
Why? 😂
@joek6791
@joek6791 Месяц назад
@@user-fe5lr9zt3y LOL I do agree that Peter does have a great imagination but you need to go back to rubbing Putin's feet.
@user-fe5lr9zt3y
@user-fe5lr9zt3y Месяц назад
@@BillWoodillustrator for blatant lies?
@craigjones3295
@craigjones3295 Месяц назад
Hopefully, Ukrainians can hold on till supplies arrive. What a mess!!
@big1boston
@big1boston Месяц назад
Craig Benjamin Jones is an Australian grappler and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt competitor and coach. it is simple to see why you lack an education. @craigjones3295 Please Report to your local ADL office for gender Affirmation care.
@solaireastora5394
@solaireastora5394 Месяц назад
​@@HerpetileI do and the initial commenter does
@joshjames2611
@joshjames2611 Месяц назад
​@@Herpetile 122 people who liked the above comment
@Herpetile
@Herpetile Месяц назад
@@joshjames2611 gang gang
@blasternine8814
@blasternine8814 Месяц назад
@@Herpetile NATO
@RobinSmith20
@RobinSmith20 Месяц назад
Russia has eased the laws on child labour so teenagers as young as 14 can be recruited by industry. Given that Russia has moved to a war-time economy, there will be 16-18 year olds working in munitions plants around dangerous materials…what could possibly go wrong ?
@yevhenhoncharenko7862
@yevhenhoncharenko7862 Месяц назад
The 16-17 years old olready working at producing drones in russia - you can look some videos about it, they are proud of it
@AndrePepink
@AndrePepink Месяц назад
6% is not war economy. Soviet and USA used 80% in ww2. Another lol comment
@Randomuser-ei7is
@Randomuser-ei7is Месяц назад
@@AndrePepink Ukraine is far from being total war.... 6% is not at all war economy, these people should honestly do some research.
@RobinSmith20
@RobinSmith20 Месяц назад
@@AndrePepink Russia’s public spending is at unprecedented levels, and around 40% of the government budget is spent on the war. Total military spending is expected to reach more than 10% of GDP for the year 2023. This comes at the expense of spending on health and social welfare. Military pay, ammunition, tanks, planes, and compensation for dead and wounded soldiers, all contribute to the GDP figures. Put simply, the war against Ukraine is now the main driver of Russia’s economic growth. And it is a war that Russia cannot afford to win. The cost of rebuilding and maintaining security in a conquered Ukraine would be too great, and an isolated Russia could at best hope to become a junior partner entirely dependent on China.
@bojanstojicevic2642
@bojanstojicevic2642 Месяц назад
Do'Not WoRRy. B HaPPy. RuSSiaNs R COMING...NATIVE AMERICAN KARMA CALLS. Uncle Sam is dead...new KIDs R CURENT value. Shame on U RobinHood.
@michellegutierrez2119
@michellegutierrez2119 Месяц назад
Thank you for sharing this video Peter Zehain ..
@3ndt1m3s
@3ndt1m3s Месяц назад
I really appreciate all your thoughtfull and insightful analysis on this situation. You are a scholar and a real gentleman sir! Thank you very much and keep up all the good works!
@dukenukem8381
@dukenukem8381 Месяц назад
Pieter by lack of "optics" on T-55 you meant FCS(fire control system) , generally you are correct thoug.
@BatkoNashBandera774
@BatkoNashBandera774 Месяц назад
how come you didn't bring bubblegum?
@user-fe5lr9zt3y
@user-fe5lr9zt3y Месяц назад
Peter the Shyster,most uninformed you tuber on any subject,period.Russia is fighting 54 countries of nazi West alone and kicking their ass?
@FarTooFar
@FarTooFar Месяц назад
​@@user-fe5lr9zt3yhello boris. How's life in nazi ruZzia?
@dukenukem8381
@dukenukem8381 Месяц назад
@@user-fe5lr9zt3y Russia is heavily aided by Iran North Korea and China with India footing the bill paying for oil. Western chips worth Billions are being smuggled by Central Asian countries for Russia. Ukraine is AIDED by less than 0,50% GDP of each of 54 countries helping Ukraine. Ukraine is a much smaller country with less resources and people. And with this minuscule help which is often late and less than promised Ukraine holds the line against Russia Iran NK and western chips. Which all things considered is pretty tough and brave.
@johnparnell9488
@johnparnell9488 Месяц назад
@@user-fe5lr9zt3y Russia stronk!
@TheExpressionless1
@TheExpressionless1 Месяц назад
Mr Zeihan please talk more about what the Philippines is doing and the implications of the trilateral summit with japan and the US
@j.dunlop8295
@j.dunlop8295 Месяц назад
Putin's this week asked Uzbekistan for 500,000 tons of petrol (gasoline) that's 400 mil. gal.s! Apparently Ukrainians refinery sanctions (✈️💥) are working? 💙🇺🇦
@user-fe5lr9zt3y
@user-fe5lr9zt3y Месяц назад
Peter the Shyster,most uninformed you tuber on any subject,period.Russia is fighting 54 countries of nazi West alone and kicking their ass?
@jeffrice3044
@jeffrice3044 Месяц назад
@@user-fe5lr9zt3y If you are the best the Russian bot farms can come up with, it's a sad indictment to be sure. Keep sending China your gold for black market chips, uniforms, and ATV's. You have less than a decade to fade away into the annals of history.
@davidogan
@davidogan Месяц назад
Allow me. The Philippines seem to revert back to be a US colony after successfully kicking out the US military at Clark Airbase 2 decades ago. So I guess, the CIA infiltrated your elections made sure that you got a new President who is the son of the most corrupt Philippines President ever, Ferdinand Marcos. Remember when the late F. Marcos fled the Philippines with all the country’s money to Hawaii in the late 80s, they didn’t do anything to help you get your money back. There was a time in the 70’s when the Philippines was 2nd only to Japan in Asia and the Peso was 3-1 to the US dollar. After that the Philippines had collapsed from being a top country into nearly a failed state until today. So the summit with Japan and the US is just to affirm that both the Philippines and Japan (both loyal US lapdogs) remain obedient to the US and are both are ready to become the next Ukraine when the US stirs up war in the South China Sea.
@atklm1
@atklm1 Месяц назад
@@user-fe5lr9zt3y He's kicking his own behind. He's fighting only Ukraine. Sure, with some mostly cold war weapons and ammo from west. North Korea has sent much more shells to Russia, and Iran has sent huge amounts of brand new drones, which have had major impact. China is keeping economical lifeline tethered to fund Russian war. Package that is being sent to Ukraine in the first wave as a whole, most of it already waiting in Poland, is actually huge. In terms of firepower, amounts, and a new level of technological sophistication. It packs a wallop. In one to four weeks, Russians are going to have a bad weather on the front line, it's going to rain fire and steel in a storm of a whole new level. Especially when the F-16's (and later Gripens) come to clean the skies along with European 1,5 million artillery shells. It's gonna be a hard knock life soon for Russian soldiers, and Russian losses in both men and material will grow by the order of magnitude when this party gets started. Not long now.
@gonebabygone4116
@gonebabygone4116 Месяц назад
Peter - in a recent assault instead of proper BMP/BTR armored personnel carriers they used soft sided Kamaz trucks instead. This wasn't a single lost truck, it was a formation with something like a dozen vehicles total. T-55 tanks with elite units is another similar bit of news. The end may be nearer than we've imagined.
@seandelaney1700
@seandelaney1700 Месяц назад
The image of using large trucks with overhead "cope cages" seems to be pretty hard data to at least how one regiment is in lack of vehicles. There are also many images of 20+ soldiers jumping down from tanks and assault vehicles after hitting minds etc. Also many of the new Chinese "golf carts" which are being attacked, although I assume these are not being used in assaults it still points to mobility issues.
@darioswatchclub8
@darioswatchclub8 Месяц назад
Thank you!
@teekay_1
@teekay_1 Месяц назад
If Peter's analysis is taken at face value, doesn't that essentially discredit the whole notion that Russia has designs on all of Europe?
@jlpowell51
@jlpowell51 Месяц назад
It's a laughable notion to begin with, trotted out by politicians trying to compel people with fear instead of with logic.
@hootowl6354
@hootowl6354 Месяц назад
I've heard not one person say they have designs on all of Europe. Where do you guys get this nonsense? Ukraine, Moldova, Uzbekistan, the Baltics, part of Poland, maybe Romania, yes. They already have Belarus and part of Georgia. The more they take, the stronger they will become, and the stronger they become, the more they will twist your arm and mine. Russia is one nation who we want to be weak, out of necessity.
@caliph20
@caliph20 Месяц назад
​@hootowl6354 there's no evidence besides fear mongering of any threat to NATO
@richarddean3154
@richarddean3154 Месяц назад
@@hootowl6354 Man, that is all I have been hearing from people who support sending money and arms to Ukraine - "if we don't stop Russia in Ukraine, they will invade some other country next" OR "democracy is at stake if we don't stop Russia in Ukraine". They tell everyone that Russia is an existential threat to Europe - that means Europe would cease to exist.
@istvanglock7445
@istvanglock7445 Месяц назад
@@richarddean3154 Did you read what hootowl said? He listed those countries (some of them) that Russia wants to 'reclaim' as part of its former Empire. So yes, Russia will continue beyond Ukraine, with Moldova almost certainly next. And a bigger Russia, with a bigger population under its control, will be a threat to the rest of Europe and the free world - perhaps not militarily, but certainly in other ways. Perhaps you're not old enough to remember the Cold War, and all the disruptive antics that the USSR got up to.
@jasonangle7776
@jasonangle7776 Месяц назад
... and there's no lend lease to save them.
@calc1657
@calc1657 Месяц назад
The Chinese, North Koreans, and Iranians have been helping out.
@scottlanghorst1483
@scottlanghorst1483 Месяц назад
It's funny, Russia never mentions that is what helped them win WW2. 🇺🇲❤🇺🇦
@dingus6317
@dingus6317 Месяц назад
@@calc1657Dint forget India
@AndrePepink
@AndrePepink Месяц назад
lend lease didnt help Russia win. They had much more equipment left than lend lease after end of the war.
@Randomuser-ei7is
@Randomuser-ei7is Месяц назад
Lend lease only made up 8% of USSR's war effort and USSR repaid Lend lease.
@williamwells1862
@williamwells1862 Месяц назад
No way Jose. When half of the oil refineries are wasted, the war is over in months.
@NorthernStruggler
@NorthernStruggler Месяц назад
Good video Peter. This Confirmed SO MUCH.
@maxpower3990
@maxpower3990 Месяц назад
Russia hasn’t been sending just 20 year olds to this war. We have seen men in their 40’s and 50’s being sent. The point of origin of many of those that have been killed hasn’t been the metros of Moscow and St Petersburg. Considering that thousands of these tanks have been sitting in a Siberian field for over a decade freezing every winter many hundreds of these tanks will be useless without months of refurbishment. Many will probably just be cannabalised to keep up production quotas as that is faster. I don’t think Russia has 5-8 years like Peter says, I think they have at best half that, 3-4 years before Russia losses the ability to sustain an army in the field and loses the will to continue this fight.
@robertarisz8464
@robertarisz8464 Месяц назад
I was thinking along the same lines - before you run out of all 8 million men of service age, people might revolt. Maybe another 2-3 years at most.
@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311
@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 Месяц назад
Don't you realise the average age of the Ukrainian army is several years older than the Russians in Ukraine?
@HR_8035_YEA
@HR_8035_YEA Месяц назад
​@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311Don't you realise why that is? The Ukrainians have millions of men available under age 27 that have deliberately not been called up. At least they have options going forward.
@teekay_1
@teekay_1 Месяц назад
@@HR_8035_YEA Well, yes and no. At the outbreak of the war, most of the rich people in the Ukraine move into Romania taking their sons and daughters with them.
@HR_8035_YEA
@HR_8035_YEA Месяц назад
@@teekay_1 How many is that compared to those that stayed? My point still stands. Only recently Ukraine announced it was dropping the conscription age to 25 from 27. It gives the options to lower it again as they need to.
@georgephilipp9410
@georgephilipp9410 Месяц назад
Interesting numbers and conlcusions. Totally opposite to what I am usually listening to 😁 Time will tell... Good luck to each one of us 🙏
@duncan8437
@duncan8437 Месяц назад
Please look up videos with satellite imagery. When 70% of the tank depots are empty, it hints to supply issues
@robvandenberg4191
@robvandenberg4191 Месяц назад
I get short of breath just listening to you. You have a cold? But you are awesome. Love from the Netherlands.
@PaulFerrell-jp2cu
@PaulFerrell-jp2cu Месяц назад
I remember the Russians were using a “maxim” machine gun from WW1. One way to replace old is to put it on the front.
@billisaacs702
@billisaacs702 Месяц назад
I dunno Peter. It sounds kinda squirrelly to me. 76th Guards Air Rifle was out of Pskov and was an airborne outit. They didn't use tanks. If memory serves and it does, they had IFVs at most as their TO and E. So whoever is driving these tanks is not 76th. Make a personal rule never to record before coffee. 😄
@kjj26k
@kjj26k Месяц назад
Whatever Russian units were before the war, even one year ago, has all been completely changed. Yes, airborne units have become infantry assault units. As have marines, national guard, and even Spetznaz.
@AlfaGiuliaQV
@AlfaGiuliaQV Месяц назад
@@kjj26k The only ones not participting are the kadyrovites, the precious tiktok army.?
@kleinweichkleinweich
@kleinweichkleinweich Месяц назад
the VDV from Pskov (Pleskau), the murderers of Butcha if memory serves (and it does!)
@billisaacs702
@billisaacs702 Месяц назад
@@kjj26k ...and therefore are not the "elite" troops as designated in this video. Like I said. Squirrelly. Therefore I don't necessarily buy that their "elite" units are driving castoffs. That doesn't make sense on any level even for Russians.
@Cheechiob
@Cheechiob Месяц назад
This whole video is BS.
@docken11
@docken11 Месяц назад
Peter you definitely need to adjust your numbers; based on good OSINT from people like Covert Cabal Russia is looking like running out of tanks in about 2 years at best. They are really pretty much doomed now no matter the outcome of the war.
@TheBKnight3
@TheBKnight3 Месяц назад
Covert Cabal did that assessment about a year ago...
@timmommens901
@timmommens901 Месяц назад
Hear hear
@calc1657
@calc1657 Месяц назад
12000 tanks is a pretty solid base
@docken11
@docken11 Месяц назад
@@TheBKnight3 I didn't see that previous one (though I know the latest one he did was about a week or two ago). His satellite analysis is fairly compelling if you haven't seen the latest one.
@matthewbrook7683
@matthewbrook7683 Месяц назад
Yes just yesterday they had a Ural truck with cages welded on it driving into an assault. You dont do that if your not really running out of APCs or tanks. Although one cant help but wonder were the cages to keep the drones out or the poor soldiers doomed to die, inside the cage?
@bradleygardner1237
@bradleygardner1237 15 дней назад
Really appreciate your updates Peter!
@PS-xy3wv
@PS-xy3wv Месяц назад
Pete, most military guys will tell you it’s not the modernization of weaponry, it’s the training of the crews, how modern is the leopard , and the abrams?
@rogerwilco2
@rogerwilco2 Месяц назад
The Russians have actually lost much more than 2000 tanks. Visially confirmed losses sit at 2920 according to Oryx. They also not started with their oldest T-54/55 stock. Those have not been seen in the war until a couple of months ago. Their losses for the first two years have all been more modern tanks. Estimates of how much of those “12.000” tanks can actually be made to work after decades in storage vary wildly but none are above 2/3rds. There is certainly a large number of undocumented losses as well and the Russians need to keep some materiel on their very long borders with other countries. They had about 2000 active tanks at the start, and at most another 6000 or so they can refurbish. They have lost 3000-4000 of those and at least need to keep 500+ on their other borders with NATO, China and the Caucasus. They have at best about 2500 left, active and reserves combined. This is also clear from sattelite images of their bases, most have beem emptied by 70-90% of their pre-war stocks. If they are using T-54/55 as frontline tanks, they are running out of most of their more modern systems. Don’t take my word for it, look up Perun and Covert Cabal who do great work on the publicly available data.
@AndrePepink
@AndrePepink Месяц назад
They confuse ukranian and russian material.
@jkmarshall3553
@jkmarshall3553 Месяц назад
@@AndrePepink Who is really confused though?
@rosomak8244
@rosomak8244 Месяц назад
@@AndrePepink Intentionally. Or showing the same tank over and over again.
@x7zy-xx
@x7zy-xx Месяц назад
Ridicoulous that ukraine have "destroyed" that many tanks, seems completly unrealistic. They have not. And just because a tank is damaged is not the same as it is burned out and destroyed. In a war between Egypt and Israel an israeli tank took something like 16 hits, It still kept running after the changed the driver. And russian can repair its tanks.
@jkmarshall3553
@jkmarshall3553 Месяц назад
@@x7zy-xx you sound angry.
@healthymealthy775
@healthymealthy775 Месяц назад
I like Peter but he hasn't reviewed the Spring Offensive from last year.
@davidsmith3rd
@davidsmith3rd Месяц назад
Why would he review a disaster that contradicts everything else he says ??
@13BadassMetal
@13BadassMetal Месяц назад
This begs the question how can they continue to occupy what they currently have?
@jacoblester8477
@jacoblester8477 Месяц назад
I don't think they got 8 years. There's a LOT of TB in those twenty years olds and loosing a 1/5 of your tank reserve causing u to pull antiques out is kind of a bad sign. If they are going to win it has to be in the next year.
@sadjaxx
@sadjaxx Месяц назад
Why TB?
@RetNavyguy
@RetNavyguy Месяц назад
"Trust me bro". 2 yesrs from now.
@user-fe5lr9zt3y
@user-fe5lr9zt3y Месяц назад
Peter the Shyster,most uninformed you tuber on any subject,period.Russia is fighting 54 countries of nazi West alone and kicking their ass?
@MySomerandomname
@MySomerandomname Месяц назад
@@user-fe5lr9zt3y don't forget to take your pills please. it's very important to supress delusions
@andrewcall8961
@andrewcall8961 Месяц назад
Never cites sources, just rambles.
@user-fe5lr9zt3y
@user-fe5lr9zt3y Месяц назад
@@andrewcall8961 there are lot of these "dime a dozen "bullshit channels.Once Peter ask ed me(last year) for debate and I said sure.But first you have to learn basic facts about everything ,otherwise you waste my time?
@andrewcall8961
@andrewcall8961 Месяц назад
@@user-fe5lr9zt3y Sure thing, pal.
@SusanMelson-kk6ll
@SusanMelson-kk6ll Месяц назад
If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you...prevent inflation
@CHELSJAMES
@CHELSJAMES Месяц назад
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@camerontita7661
@camerontita7661 Месяц назад
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@roselineonyeka6023
@roselineonyeka6023 Месяц назад
I'm admittedly bummed that I didn't go with my gut instinct & buy bitcoin few months back when it was $20k - $25k range. is it too late to get in and make profits? i have set aside $450k to get fully invested this year
@MarvelousOnyeubi
@MarvelousOnyeubi Месяц назад
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@MarvelousOnyeubi
@MarvelousOnyeubi Месяц назад
​@@CHELSJAMEScongratulations
@davidtaylor657
@davidtaylor657 27 дней назад
The best overview/update on Russia's military situation I have heard or read. Outstandingly informative!
@zapfanzapfan
@zapfanzapfan Месяц назад
From the analysis of the losses they have some production of new tanks and refurbishment of older and older tanks.
@Jay-vt1mw
@Jay-vt1mw Месяц назад
Massively disagree with Peter on the “5-8 years” if we’re talking man power sure but for vehicles and aircraft it could easily be 2025 where they start to run empty.
@calc1657
@calc1657 Месяц назад
The Russians have been ramping up manufacturing as they convert to a wartime economy.
@jehandesains8674
@jehandesains8674 Месяц назад
@@calc1657 doesn't matter. Even with Russia ramping up production, the amount of NEW equipment produced every YEAR is about what Russia loses every MONTH. They're staying in the fight right now because of refurbishing their old reserves, but these are starting to run low. Back in October 2023, Russia had about 3500 serviceable tanks left in storage, and they've lost like 2400-ish in the last 6 months on the battlefield. When those stockpiles are empty, Russian output will massively reduce, and we'll start seeing fewer and fewer tanks, armoured vehicles, and artillery.
@mysterioanonymous3206
@mysterioanonymous3206 Месяц назад
​​@@jehandesains8674there's also over 60 f-16 coming to fight... If air defense starts arriving around the same time, EU is looking to provide more patriots, Russia will be in for a hard time. They'll take out all their arty first and it's all downhill for the Russians from there...
@calc1657
@calc1657 Месяц назад
@@jehandesains8674 Depends how effectively they ramp up production
@jehandesains8674
@jehandesains8674 Месяц назад
@@calc1657 Russia doesn't have the capabilities to seriously ramp up. Such a thing takes many years and high end equipment, which Russia does not have. Europe could, theoretically, ramp up to become by far the biggest military in the world, surpassing the US. Russia...not so much.
@jaymenza5196
@jaymenza5196 Месяц назад
Somehow shovels keep advancing
@peterflohr7827
@peterflohr7827 Месяц назад
If you ignore the insane cost like there's no tomorrow, you might think it's all going fine.
@sercravenmohead3631
@sercravenmohead3631 Месяц назад
It’s inefficient gains
@ChucksSEADnDEAD
@ChucksSEADnDEAD Месяц назад
Do you watch the videos? The shovel joke falls flat when the advacing troops put the muzzle on their own head or shove a live grenade into their vest. Turns out people can get gibbed like in Quake multiplayer in real life.
@kjj26k
@kjj26k Месяц назад
Somehow, Ukraine still isn't conquered.
@albertmaziarz6739
@albertmaziarz6739 Месяц назад
ratio 4 to1 with evry1000 steps 1 inch
@TheShadowfakx
@TheShadowfakx Месяц назад
Such a dichotomy in the way this war is re[orted on and analyzed.
@TheBombayMasterTony
@TheBombayMasterTony Месяц назад
Informative.
@TzunSu
@TzunSu Месяц назад
"The T-55 does not have any optics, it pre-dates optics" What? The T-55 has several optics, the primary being the TSh2B-32P. Not very *good* optics, and no night vision or thermal obv, but they do have optics.
@GTfour01
@GTfour01 Месяц назад
But, but, Peter knows best! I mean, he uses the undisputable data of the Dutch Russia-haters oryx and, even better, the latest and very thrustworthy data of the Ukrainian military!
@TzunSu
@TzunSu Месяц назад
@@GTfour01 Shocking to see you being a Russia support, when you've got Hitler speeches on your channel. GTFO troll.
@MoProf
@MoProf Месяц назад
It would be interesting to find out where that 600,000 casualty number came from...most other sources have a much smaller number. Assessment of Russian 'progress' from other sources is much different as well.
@yedidyah-jedshlomoh1533
@yedidyah-jedshlomoh1533 Месяц назад
Gutted by alcoholism, early death, and abortions that historically have outnumbered live births. Birthrate in Russia is 1.2 and dropping fast. --Rising Muslim radical population. 20% of all heroin used in world is used by Russians. 1% of russians are hiv positive. 40% of Russians are planning to live Russia in the next 5 years.
@ChucksSEADnDEAD
@ChucksSEADnDEAD Месяц назад
What other sources? The ones saying Russia is taking settlements, but omitting how small and how little the distances are?
@jesan733
@jesan733 Месяц назад
The Ukrainian general staff reports 451730 casualties for Russia, but that's just what they've been able to observe. Not strange if the's 30% extra that Ukraine hasn't been able to see and report.
@a.brekkan4965
@a.brekkan4965 Месяц назад
@@jesan733 Ukrainian general staff? Very credible source!
@mysterioanonymous3206
@mysterioanonymous3206 Месяц назад
Yeah even Ukraine has it at some 400k+ which is already a high estimate if say. Russia will run out of material and money before they run out of men...
@LilMissMurder3409
@LilMissMurder3409 Месяц назад
It's important to note that the T-55 has a 100mm main gun and the T-62 a 115mm gun. This complicates Russia's logistics - which were hardly stellar to begin with - even further. Also, while I imagine Russia has enormous stockpiles of ammunition for those two calibers, I also imagine that a lot of it will end up being duds due to their age - making obsolete equipment even less effective.
@bengunderman5382
@bengunderman5382 Месяц назад
What do you mean by "the T55 predates optics"? Tanks with optical systems were produced before the T55.
@jeffschrade4779
@jeffschrade4779 Месяц назад
There's a vast difference between the optics of the 1950s and the optics of today. For example, a rifle scope made in 1950 can produce a nice image -- but today's interlaced optics and guidance control systems are lightyears away... and that's what he was talking about.
@fleshreap
@fleshreap Месяц назад
Just such a shame the support for Ukraine has weaned off to such a drastic degree. They could be doing fine with support, but are instead slowly losing because lack of it.
@Aerrow62
@Aerrow62 Месяц назад
They got cocky and entitled. They started demanding supplies as if someone owed them unlimited ammo. That's where things fell apart.
@dranderson6071
@dranderson6071 Месяц назад
Think about your own words. Do you seriously believe the USA is involved to help Ukraine? Lol. They’re buying up all Ukraine farmland and thus resources also. The Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries ever. Good luck lol
@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311
@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 Месяц назад
No Ukraine is running low on manpower not just support, money and weapons. Vote them another hundred billion it will just delay the Russians, it won't change the result.
@dranderson6071
@dranderson6071 Месяц назад
Lol
@sercravenmohead3631
@sercravenmohead3631 Месяц назад
@@Aerrow62 No, it’s politics because people want to poke and prod at literally a drop in the bucket in terms of spending that went to Ukraine. Zelensky is doing the right thing, his country is being invaded and he needs weapons to fight it. While yes the U.S. for example should secure its border it can easily walk and chew gum at the same time, Russia is fighting against less than 1% of NATO’s overall GDP. We aren’t even in a wartime economy, so yeah Russia produces more shells ect but that’s because their economy accommodates it by shifting priority, Germany alone is double the GDP of Russia, if they expanded it’s military spending in capacity they could alone in theory out do the Russians. It’s just politics holding back the aid and honestly poor internal policies that make Ukraine not a priority for NATO citizens.
@hertsish
@hertsish Месяц назад
The Russians may be able to sustain a supply of troops for 5-8 years, but every man sent to the war is another out of the workforce. Russia is already suffering from a lack of labor, and the industrial war machine is compounding the problem. This means that the industries that make a profit and pay taxes are suffering labor shortages because of industries that rely entirely on government revenue to exist. How long can the Russian economy sustain this?
@Faith666x
@Faith666x Месяц назад
That was actually so interesting
@mann8098
@mann8098 Месяц назад
Peter! Tell us about the Iran/Israel situation!
@koldus1234
@koldus1234 Месяц назад
I watched an experts video in my country about the t55 tanks being used, and he claimed they are used as sort of a artillery, plus its good on certain terrain because its much lighter and it was used by the russian marines because its good for beaches and stuff. How valid is that? Or are they using it on frontlines?
@heyho4770
@heyho4770 Месяц назад
Recently there was footage of the "Blyatmobile". A T55 with a Cope shed leading the charge in an assault.
@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311
@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 Месяц назад
Both sides are mainly using tanks as SP artillery now. And both sides are using T55s.
@ChucksSEADnDEAD
@ChucksSEADnDEAD Месяц назад
All tanks have been used like that in Ukraine. Doesn't matter the age, indirect fire is important. However, tanks have less range than artillery and the barrels last less than an artillery barrel. So you don't pull T-55 tanks out of storage when you lack artillery. You do that when you're lacking tanks.
@ernst624
@ernst624 Месяц назад
​@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311Have not seen Ukraine use T55 in any action. Do you have sources?
@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311
@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 Месяц назад
@@ernst624 Just google it. They're from Slovenia.
@rayoflight62
@rayoflight62 Месяц назад
Hello Mr. Zehian, Your analysis - where you stick numbers to facts - is very high value, and as precious as essential. Have a great Sunday! Greetings from the UK, Anthony
@helmutgensen4738
@helmutgensen4738 Месяц назад
Love the purple and white training jacket - what's the brand?
@BurntheKremlin966
@BurntheKremlin966 Месяц назад
We will CERTAINELLY put that on test😛
@studio2165
@studio2165 Месяц назад
Its only clever knowing all this information if the information is accurate, and yours is at the very least questionable..
@festekj
@festekj Месяц назад
As an accountant, I could say that Russia used FIFO. This means first in first out.
@billberg1264
@billberg1264 Месяц назад
We computer scientists use the term too. What context do accountants apply it in? I thought money was fungible, so you didn't need to track which individual dollar was being spent.
@ChucksSEADnDEAD
@ChucksSEADnDEAD Месяц назад
​@@billberg1264 if the accountant is matching dollars to goods they are aware of inventory.
@heyho4770
@heyho4770 Месяц назад
​@@billberg1264AFAIK Its being used to determine the value of your goods in storage. Because the price of those does fluctuate.
@festekj
@festekj Месяц назад
@@billberg1264 The FIFO method assumes that the oldest unit of inventory is sold or used in production first. The LIFO method assumes that the newest stock or last unit to arrive in inventory is sold or used in production first. The FIFO method is allowed by both US GAAP and IFRS. Keep in mind, LIFO is rarely used
@apc9714
@apc9714 Месяц назад
​@billberg1264 In accounting is applied to the Inventory. If the cost of goods varies (ex. Increases rapidly), a FIFO method means that the good sold is the first that arrived (therefore in this case) the cheapest, while a LIFO (last in first out method) means it's the newest and most expensive one
@user-en8rd5ew9t
@user-en8rd5ew9t Месяц назад
I had heard that many of the “recruits “for the Russian Army a year ago were from the Siberian utility company - line repairmen, for example. Do we have any sense of the impact of the winter on Eastern Russia? Is that a factor in your numbers?
@user-fe5lr9zt3y
@user-fe5lr9zt3y Месяц назад
Peter the Shyster,most uninformed you tuber on any subject,period.Russia is fighting 54 countries of nazi West alone and kicking their ass?Proud to be so uninformed and ignorant?
@kevinpritchard3592
@kevinpritchard3592 Месяц назад
Very interesting analysis. Thanks.
@RZakelis
@RZakelis Месяц назад
Zeihan haven't seen Russian soldiers.Most of them are in their forties or even fifties, not twenties.
@genepozniak
@genepozniak Месяц назад
The younger ones are drafted from the eastern republics.
@AndrePepink
@AndrePepink Месяц назад
There is no war draft for the war. Youbguys are fompletly out of reality is like look at a comedy show.
@GolemRising
@GolemRising Месяц назад
@@AndrePepink Bro we can see people being served their draft papers when they post them on social media. Drink less, your brain damage is already severe.
@user-uf2df6zf5w
@user-uf2df6zf5w Месяц назад
​@@GolemRising Yes, but the mobilization affects everyone between 18 and 60. One can also easily dodge it, if smart enough.
@FazeParticles
@FazeParticles Месяц назад
Zeihan is lying again. most of the Russian soldiers in ukraine are older looking. there's some young guys but always there's old guys around. TBH that's good. more experience and better suited for a slow war. this war is not going to be a blitz for the capital.
@IliyaOsnovikov
@IliyaOsnovikov Месяц назад
Peter certainly has a talent to make up the feel good stories.
@pierrerochon7271
@pierrerochon7271 3 дня назад
troll
@IliyaOsnovikov
@IliyaOsnovikov 2 дня назад
@@pierrerochon7271 Nice to meet you.
@loudtim265
@loudtim265 Месяц назад
At least the T-55 doesn’t have an auto loader that explodes all ordnance on contact.
@lucasgssilveira
@lucasgssilveira Месяц назад
Could they be using the T-55s because they don't have auto-loaders, which tend to explode when hit by drones?
@bako8880
@bako8880 Месяц назад
There won't be much folks in their 20's on the battlefield if the war keeps going like that. If you read what Russian z-sources say about the freshly mobilized, it's mostly countryside 40-50-60 years old men, chronically poor, not healthy at all, abusing alcohol or drugs, often with criminal background. Not the young snipper-snappers that learn and adapt quickly.
@ChristopherFodor
@ChristopherFodor Месяц назад
Where does 600k kia or wounded even come from. That's over double what they were saying a few months ago
@jesan733
@jesan733 Месяц назад
Ukrainian count of Russian casualties is 450k, but they've probably not been able to see 30% (some of which is Russians wounding and killing each other). And then it's 600k.
@ewok40k
@ewok40k 27 дней назад
T-55s had literally optics, like binoculars style sights. More modern tanks had optoelectronics, like thermal sights, and those either were stolen or decomposed.
@thedownwardmachine
@thedownwardmachine Месяц назад
The T-55 is the tank from one of my favorite movies, The Beast (aka The Beast of War). About a Russian tank crew fighting in Afghanistan. In the '80s. Four decades ago. When the tank was already old.
@jamesbohling4864
@jamesbohling4864 Месяц назад
Curious about the causality numbers. Didn't think they were that high
@rogerwilco2
@rogerwilco2 Месяц назад
It is difficult to get accurate numbers on either side. But likely estimates put the number of dead Russians at 50-200 thousand and long term disabled wouded are usually 3-4x those. Ulraine has military losses about 1/3rd of the Russians but also a lot of civilian losses. Peters numbers on tanks are way off. Visually confirmed lost tanks are already at 2920 according to Oryx
@dinismantas7265
@dinismantas7265 Месяц назад
In all truth, I am not convinced they are THAT high, but I suspect they are high. With adequate help Ukraine could win this war just with the attrition of the Russian forces. It would take some years, off course. By adequate help I mean: Air defense systems, air force, enough 155mm artillery shells, Taurus and other long range weapon systems,...whatever they need. The way it stands, Ukrainians are taking absolutely unnecessary losses and all thanks to Duck a l'orange Donald and the Maga muppet faction.
@yoooyoyooo
@yoooyoyooo Месяц назад
It's an invented number. According to Ukrainians more than 400k Russians and 31k Ukraninans. However only a 3 yo child would believe that. Since the same Ukrainians say Russians have 10x more artillery. So an army that has 10X more artillery and basically air supremacy is losing 10X more people? Peter here is also inventing numbers he actually ofc doesn't have a clue.
@DonaldDuck666
@DonaldDuck666 Месяц назад
russia 46000 dead 280 000 wounded ukraine 31000 dead 700 000 missing wounded over 1 million.
@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311
@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 Месяц назад
@@rogerwilco2 Everyone agrees that Russia has the aviation, armour, artillery and ammunition advantage. But Ukrainian losses are a third of Russian losses? This is extreme wishful thinking. Anyone who has been following this war with an open mind realises Ukrainian losses are higher - vastly higher. As or 200k Russian dead who are they all? Mediazona identifiers fewer than 50k Russian dead. As for Oryx - samples have been audited and it was found Russian losses were invented and exaggerated, Ukrainian losses were classified as Russian losses and one of the guys behind Oryx came up with the excuse we're volunteers, we don't have time to avoid mistakes. Maybe fair but the point is the Oryx numbers are meaningless.
@kt2816
@kt2816 Месяц назад
Thanks for update purple man bun
@bobfry5267
@bobfry5267 Месяц назад
To draw the obvious parallel, the troops, and especially the pilots, defending Germany in 1944 were not the same people who conquered France and Poland. They were dead or dying in Stalingrad and Moscow, and Kursk, and the thousands of kilometres in between. New recruits died faster than they could become veterans, and every machine that was lost became less likely to be replaced. Tanks were utterly worn out,.( Or broke down due to hasty production. The new tanks were a mechanical nightmare.) The enemy was everywhere, endlessly, and support was conserved for doomed assault plans. Increasingly diverse and poorly armed elements were used to shore up the front, with predictable consequences. Götterdämmerung.
@scottlanghorst1483
@scottlanghorst1483 Месяц назад
Great insight, Zeihan. The Front is also experiencing the same scenario as D-Day in WW2. The Germans were out of ammo by 2:30 P.M. American Ethane Company contributed to Mike Johnson. That company is 88% owned by Russian Ogliarchs. Which country does Trump and Mike Johnson support, Russia or Ukraine? Their actions speak volumes!🇺🇲❤🇺🇦
@Red.Hot.Chili.Beans63
@Red.Hot.Chili.Beans63 Месяц назад
You are incorrectly reading Mike Johnson. There are 12 very conservative Congressmen that are putting pressure on Johnson to keep aid to Ukraine tied to Biden closing the southern border with Mexico. Biden can do this with an order to the Border Patrol. Biden (or his handlers) choose not to do this, so the aid to Ukraine is held hostage. All that dribble about Trump or Johnson supporting Russia over Ukraine is nonsense. But, you western Europeans should learn that if you wish to protect yourselves, you should do it for yourself. You can never know when another country's internal politics can/will interfer with your country's safety and security.
@richardthomas5362
@richardthomas5362 Месяц назад
Mike Johnson, so far, has been actually upholding the interests of the Republican base - NO AMNESTY for Illegal aliens and no welfare for them either. The Senate bill which gives aid to Ukraine also gives amnesty to illegal aliens and welfare to them as well. If the choice is no amnesty and letting Russia win or support Ukraine and mass illegal alien amnesty and welfare then I choose the former. Forcing Biden to do his job in securing the border AND supporting Ukraine is not an option at this time.
@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531
@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531 Месяц назад
You don't even need to ask. :(
@albertmaziarz6739
@albertmaziarz6739 Месяц назад
@@richardthomas5362 dont give amnesty is not lncluded welfare is up to states not federal
@lindus9201
@lindus9201 Месяц назад
@@richardthomas5362 They also was against the bill that included the strongest border security ever, but the republikans decided they rather want weak borders to help Trump win the election.
@alexbayswood4847
@alexbayswood4847 Месяц назад
Which has less optics, Russian Tanks or Russian Government?
@thellester
@thellester Месяц назад
I disagree with the five year assessment. Degraded forces have a catastrophic effect on effectiveness. It’s like adding used motor oil to replace quality gear lube. It won’t take long for problems to compound and accelerate for the Russians. With US support, this ends within two years, barring any black swan event.
@doogleticker5183
@doogleticker5183 Месяц назад
Like Putin falling out of a window or a tactical nuke…etc. 😮
@timsheraden408
@timsheraden408 29 дней назад
Possibly need to factor in the aging, and any continued manpower exodus depletion, of those manpower reserves during that 5 to 8 year window. I would guess that the longer the war goes, the more the exodus will accelerate. That said … I’m sure Peter has better intel than I will ever see.
@jamesks16
@jamesks16 Месяц назад
the t55s from what ive seen are only being used for indirect fire support aka artillery duty. so doesnt matter how fast or how much armour they have. it has a gun and is on a mobile platform, thats all thats needed
@Saqux
@Saqux Месяц назад
they have been seen on the 0 line too
@pippieskent9150
@pippieskent9150 Месяц назад
That face at the end when he realises the tragety of what he's saying.
@lindax911
@lindax911 Месяц назад
5-8 years _if_ all available men actually go. At some point, one would think there will no longer be enough people to maintain stability withing the empire. 2 years max.
@joycekoch5746
@joycekoch5746 Месяц назад
It's not about casualties but land held.
@stevencramsie9172
@stevencramsie9172 Месяц назад
You can’t hold land with corpses.
@joycekoch5746
@joycekoch5746 Месяц назад
@@stevencramsie9172 The Zulus found that out.
@Stunde0Null0
@Stunde0Null0 Месяц назад
Realistic estimates based on satelite images put the remaining number of tanks around 2000-3000 (Source: Covert Cabal). The question is in which conditions are these tanks and other vehicles. So the russians will long run out of tanks before they run out of people
@sergiomessina2037
@sergiomessina2037 Месяц назад
Good commentary but aren't the Russians while depleting men in their 20s and older tanks replenishing them by building newer ones? Or are they limited by sanctions not getting the parts that they need to do so?
@madisondines7441
@madisondines7441 Месяц назад
Great question. They are both building new tanks (slowly) and refurbishing old tanks (quickly).
@benyomovod6904
@benyomovod6904 Месяц назад
Even a perfect tank is just as good as its crew
@goldmanstats7140
@goldmanstats7140 Месяц назад
Every bar has a guy like this sitting at the end of it with a pint ready to pontificate about anything.
@lachlanbell8390
@lachlanbell8390 Месяц назад
What I really want to know is how long it will be until Zeihan runs out of things to claim the Russians have run out of.
@russv.winkle8764
@russv.winkle8764 Месяц назад
LoL totally. He talks a good game but mostly just BS speculation
@TheJimbles
@TheJimbles Месяц назад
He just said 5 - 8 yrs of supplies. So he's never actually said that...
@russv.winkle8764
@russv.winkle8764 Месяц назад
@@TheJimbles 😂 what a insightful forecast from crystal ball Pete
@documentthedrama8279
@documentthedrama8279 Месяц назад
dont forget china is to become bankrupt any second now
@davidemery429
@davidemery429 Месяц назад
Government paid influencer right there
@tellyboy17
@tellyboy17 Месяц назад
I watch combat footage daily and almost everything that shows up is T72 and up. So no, there is still modern tanks left but also no: it doesn't make a difference as tanks just don't work in Ukraine.
@AndrePepink
@AndrePepink Месяц назад
Impossible to know if Russian or Ukranian. Manipulated a lot.
@user-lx2oe9zs4q
@user-lx2oe9zs4q Месяц назад
@@AndrePepink It's clear to anyone with good eyes that Russia is loosing a lot of tanks. Well reported by Oryx and A. Perpetua's team.
@rosomak8244
@rosomak8244 Месяц назад
@@AndrePepink This is not true. Most of the Russian equipment can be easy attributed, because it is modernized.
@hyhhy
@hyhhy Месяц назад
If tanks "don't work", then why are you seeing a lot of them in use and care about them so much? Care to explain that?
@tellyboy17
@tellyboy17 Месяц назад
@@hyhhy To be fair: after losing 3,000 of them without much to show for it it seems to have dawned on the Russians that tanks don't really work anymore on the modern battlefield and now they use them as APCs, piling infantry on top. Quite useful as it is running out of real APCs.
@KitagumaIgen
@KitagumaIgen Месяц назад
There is also a value of the candidate soldier that will go up as the number of candidates decrease. At some point the next batch of 20-30 year old men will be such a large fraction of who's left that their value will become too high to waste.
@snarlysausage4604
@snarlysausage4604 Месяц назад
thanks for content
@PUARockstar
@PUARockstar Месяц назад
Slava 🇺🇦
@Freddy_Belt
@Freddy_Belt Месяц назад
Slave
@paulattaboyatreides6414
@paulattaboyatreides6414 Месяц назад
you won the war and defeated Russia with that comment.
@johannschultz3743
@johannschultz3743 Месяц назад
Where are those casualty numbers coming from?
@Evan490BC
@Evan490BC Месяц назад
Intelligence.
@forcegfgf3123
@forcegfgf3123 Месяц назад
Form his stupid imagination
@stevencramsie9172
@stevencramsie9172 Месяц назад
@@forcegfgf3123 found Putin’s burner account
@briandefranco1608
@briandefranco1608 Месяц назад
Why are you in the Rockies I’m in Denver
@dansullivan6481
@dansullivan6481 Месяц назад
Good to see you 🤠 Allways interesting 👍
@GardeningforFreedom
@GardeningforFreedom Месяц назад
i remember when Putin had a terminal illness and russian forces were using shovels
@istvanglock7445
@istvanglock7445 Месяц назад
I remember when the Russian economy was going to collapse in two months under sanctions. That was two years ago.
@phil562
@phil562 Месяц назад
@@istvanglock7445 I remember when patriotic Americans didn't trust communist dictators.
@AcmePotatoPackingPocatello
@AcmePotatoPackingPocatello Месяц назад
I remember reading, Russian Petrochemical natural gas industry would be irreparably hurt by the shutdown of the pipelines feeding Europe. Ya, sourced from 'experts' in the industry. With examples like Libya, Venezuela, excetera. And frankly this dude Pete, spills loader-loads of B.S. into the cesspool regularly. Amazingly brazen.
@gnk53
@gnk53 Месяц назад
I remember when the Russians were going to take Kiev in three days!? That was two years ago!
@GardeningforFreedom
@GardeningforFreedom Месяц назад
@@gnk53 who reported that
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