The Sad Truth Behind the CRAZY Fast Pre-Order Sellouts in 2024 

What (if any) products have you missed out on in 2024 due to scarcity?

This is why I never play the clearance chicken game. If I want something, I preorder it. If I change my mind, I'll return after I have it in hand. No drama, no dealing with scalpers, easy peasy.

Most figures I am interested in sell out in less than 5-10 minutes. Its a huge bummer when the order window opens when I am at work 😅

On top of that there are still a lot of people who preorder from multiple stores, wait for the first store to get stock and ship, and then cancel their preorders at the other stores.

I can totally understand that explanation. It brings another question though. Why are there no products making it to store shelves? Did the production estimates eliminate the inventory at brick and mortar stores first? I have seen more DC and Marvel figures at GameStop than I have at Target and Walmart combined. Two packs and deluxe items are nearly nonexistent on the aisles at present. 🤷🏽‍♂️

McFarlane is THE WORST! A half hour after I got the email notification that the Tumbler was available for preorder, they were gone. Remember the Collectors Edition Wonder Woman? I never even saw one, except listed everywhere as SOLD OUT. It’s to the point where I’m just going to have to be fine with not getting things, because I’m not paying three times as much on eBay from someone who bought 60 of them.

Basically what's good for us (discounts) is bad for them (less profit) Whats good for them (big profit) is bad for us (costly)

I used to be able to get any DC Multiverse super cheap, but now any desirable figure sells out. Power Rangers has always suffered from people waiting on clearance. It's a big reason why the Lightning Collection line died.

The elephant in the room is that the manufacturers do/should know which figures are more demanded than others. Notice how the overstock/discount items are on dumb s$!t nobody wanted to begin with because it wasn’t comic accurate?! Then the “short production” items are on accurate classic or modern looks of a character?! Dumb or smart?

I wonder why there aren't any "EMERGENCY RUNS" for certain figures like Transformers Siege Skywarp & Greenlight? Those 2 shot up to over $300. Hasbro really needed to do a re-run but never did. But a lot of figures that don't need a re-run gets one. McFarlane Knightfall Catwoman could use a re-run. And some of the MOTU Origins Mattel Creations exclusives like Camo-Khan need a re-run. I've been collecting toys since 1977 and after being in it for that long, I think the toy companies are simply clueless & out of touch. They can look online & see that Siege Skywarp is selling for over $300 and say "Hey! That one needs a re-run". But instead, they re-run Siege Soundwave, Kingdom Galvatron & Legacy Evolution Metal-Hawk. 3 figures that did not need a re-run at all.

My idea: Make print on demand. Take all the pre-orders and then make that many for the fans who pre-ordered and then go from there and send to stores. I used to work at a book store and they would do print on demand books.

I recently bought a NECA Robocop action figure, it was $144 but the funny thing was it dropped to $60 but after I checked it went back up to $144, and I'm like WTF ?' online stores such as Amazon need to stop doing this.

My physical stores literally carry nothing. If it wasn't for online I'd have nothing

Certainly a good insight, but it somewhat neglects the international market. The distribution of the figures both in the USA, the country of manufacture, and internationally is sometimes curious. It is not uncommon for a figure that is a pegwarmer in the USA to be as rare internationally as a diamond, but sometimes it goes the other way round: in the USA it is sold out immediately and for a long time, but internationally it is still normally available for a long time, both as a pre-order and as a normal order. And then there are products that, for various reasons, don't even make it to Europe, for example - or vice versa. This is no different to the car industry, for example, where many brands or models are not available in other countries, whether due to market surveys or natural hedging (currency differences). These uncertainties or possibly just poor market analysis often lead to misallocations globally. And since American manufacturers - please don't be angry - tend to completely misjudge foreign markets anyway, there is often quite a muddle when it comes to unit numbers and distribution. (I work in Europe for an American holding company that has bought into regional companies) Just look for the Walmart "disaster" in Europe.

@nerdzoic I don’t think there’s a better way to explain what’s going on. You nailed it. This should be shared in all the collector groups.

When you mentioned allocation, I love that explanation. What's even worse about it, is that if you call the main manufacturer to complain, they will claim that the 3rd party (Nerdzoic, BBTS, etc) that you purchased it from is the one the cancelled the order and they had nothing to do with it. They don't take responsibility for their limited allocation. And then that makes the customer mad at the Store, when the frustration should be focused on the manufacturer.

i hate scalpers

Thanks, though I sort of disagree with the your point with scalpers. i think the low runs helps them, as it improves their position and profits as the only way to get the figures. The scalpers r still buying the same number of toys, but now that's a bigger % of the total and quicker sellout.

I love these videos Matt. Really interesting getting an inside baseball look at the industry. And I don't think there will be any lack of demand for Rex =)

Never seeing this happen?! What world are you living in? This has been the world of collecting for the past 8 years.

Your videos are so insightful into the action figure business. I do wish more figures would be made of the most in demand figures. Maybe a second run. For example, McFarlane classic Wonder Woman or Xmen 97 Wolverine.

yeah I know I missed out on the VHS wolverine and then again on the 97 wolverine. It was sold out before release and since release they all just shoot up in price. Figure just release and people are scharging 40 bucks for it and now it's at 70. So stupid. I coudn't even get a pre order on that target exclusive Ms Marvel coming out next month. It was sold out within 24 hours of them posted it. I found out after and went for it and nope gone. Very annoying.

Thank you for this video. I was wandering what the heck was going on and why no one was talking about it. It's been driving me crazy.

They just don’t understand and still won’t after this video

These companies now care more about preorders than actually having the item physically be in a store, lol. Its absurd

Happened to me with warbird, darksied and batman and robin.

Seeing that "pre-order sold out" notice sucks for sure but being able to pre-order something doesn't solve anything either. I'm usually good at catching pre-orders as they go online and I grab what I want quickly but then the pre-orders pile up and I can't afford to pay for so many products that arrive so close to each other so inevitably I have to cancel some of them and then they're gone forever. I really hate that. I should be able to buy things that I want at least a couple months after they hit the shelves without worrying.

How do you decide on product to select to order? Like can you completely avoid peg warmers like an eternals wave or do you have to order a small amount just in case? Is it all judgment call? Id like to know what your process is for stocking YOUR specific inventory

Imagine paying for something that you opened up and you realize was not worth the actual overpriced or the price that they were asking for when you find out that others have gotten it for 7.99, Sams cap re-release is a good point, mcu eternals wave, doctor strange2 wave,bp2 wave also

Allocation/allocated are words I use daily working in a factory. We make weed wacker line and the packaging. When the line is extruded it's run on to these huge spools. Those spools are then sent to quality, if they pass, they go into stock and are allocated for work orders. Lowes, Ace, Stihl, etc are our customers, they order X amount of line by part. Logistics goes through the racks, puts all the line allocated to a specific work order together, takes it over to packaging, where it is run into donuts or onto spools we make on location. Then, what's left comes over to me, I weigh each spool, change the weight in the system and consume (delete) the spools which have been used. This lets the extrusion manager know what kinds of line his extruders need to make. Which in turn lets the Planner know what line is available for allocation to new work orders.

Only problem with this thought is that… well… the manufacturers control the inventory levels. They market pre-orders as pre-orders, but they aren’t. Pre-orders should, in theory, determine what the company builds to scale demand. What’s actually happening is that McFarlane and hasbro are deciding up front what they want to manufacture and they use the phrase “pre-order” when they mean reservation. The more nefarious element here is that this ultimately helps swing that pendulum you discussed back in the direction of mass manufacturing. Because scalpers and buyers rush to now pre-order everything… leading hasbro and McFarlane to up production of stuff no one really wants. Like the Darkseid figure. There is absolutely no reason that should be sold out, but it is… and it’s because they want to push that “you gotta pre-order” narrative. Hell… half my preorders through Amazon are delayed or canceled anyway.

Finding your favorite action figure at ROSS, Big Lots, or Olies is never a good sign. I work for a company that has things made overseas. The overseas factory has limited capacity. If a corporation isn't making any profit from an item they will have their overseas factory make something else. Something more profitable.

I honestly haven't missed out on anything. I know people don't like the idea of paying Hasbro an extra $50 for Premium, but since getting it I haven't missed a single preorder on anything they sell. And if it makes you feel any better, sometimes I order two and sell one at my actual cost to a fellow collector who doesn't have Premium. As for playing "clearance chicken", if you REALLY want something, you better preorder it the first chance you get. I've bought plenty of stuff that went on deep clearance later. That's a bummer, but it's way less deflating for me than not getting it at all. And, I NEVER pay scalpers for anything.

Cool vid dude. As a collector it is truly depressing when this happens. For instance I live in Britain and we have hardly got anything new for a while, online stores are selling out on pre orders like crazy. We arent getting anything new in stores, my local comic book stores have heavily reduced their dc multiverse section due to this and every time there is something new in stock it's gone almost instantly. It's disheartening when this happens as a collector, I'm getting fed up. Every time a new wave or figure is announced it's like "oh great, I'll never own that!"

4:40 While that might not be the case for Hasbro, McFarlane certainly has no objection to weaponizing artificial scarcity by means of FOMO. Given McFarlane Toys is a private company, the need to maximize shareholders' ROI, isn't an issue Todd needs to worry about.

Great Video, Big Nerdy. I was expecting to see the pendulum swing after the recent clearance deluge. I agree, it would be nice if the toy company would not over correct. Let me know if you end up with extra Captain Rex figures. I’d be a buyer 😎👍

Love this follow up to your production pendulum video. It's something I've seen as I got into collecting. Hope to keep seeing more insightful videos, Big Nerdy. Looking good.

Also, I am very familiar with allocation processes among manufacturers. Every company does it different, but no company has it down pat. I work in display manufacturing and when there was a glass shortage holy shit was that a nightmare on allocation. We (distributors) had to submit all our orders along with the end-user to the manufacturer and hope that they’d give us product to fulfill our back orders. And it generally wasn’t based on FIFO, but on the fact enduser. So Facebook is gonna get priority over Pete’s Taco shop lol Resellers and end-users truly don’t understand the allocation process and hearing you so beautifully explain it in toy making is a beautiful thing

It's true. Target where I'm at only got one Marvel Legend Warbird. Yes, some places have workers who change inventory. From the first time this happened to me. Target Online said, "Will be on shelf in two hours," but when looking at the store inventory, it said, "sold out." So this does happen. Then, see Ebay with a local selling the item already that was sold out. So this time, Hasbro only sent one of the Exclusive Warbirds (to also include only sending two other figures, making only three figures on the shelf). It sucks.

only wait for sales and clearance when its things im on the fence for. If its something I want , I'll pay full price because I want to ensure these toys keep getting made.

may I check how well the x-men 97 figures sold? Just curious. I see storm and bishop warming up the pegs at my tru.

Big Nerdy, any update on the Mezco Storm Shadow preorders?

Yeah I share in your pain - I have got to be majorly on the preorder ball to get any of the high profile GI Joe and Transformers releases, especially in Canada. I am usually able to these days, but have to set dates and times in my calendar and cover multiple retailer sites. Anyway, great video - just subbed!

Very educational from the collecting and business stand point! Is good to find deals but not buying when products came can hurt companies and can cause to them to stop making them! 👍

The saddest part??? They don't have to do this anymore. I've watched plenty of vids on new mold techniques including short run style molds that are cost effective and will last long enough to make up for additional orders without Hasbro/McFarlane needing to cut off orders for fear of needing to order another metal mold. They could literally machine the metal molds for their "guess" and leave PO's open using the short run style molds for whatever else they get. Best of both worlds. Companies are doing this with miniatures.

Thanks for the insight! Some of this I knew but other stuff I didn’t. Had flashbacks to waiting forever for that damn flame trooper and seeing the months keep pushing further back 😂

UK same thing as last year things go to clearance... Got Patch/Hulk, the other 2 packs and Angel all at discount...

Lol thank god I am only collecting JOYTOY Warhammer 40K figures and I never have to worry about this! 😅

Noticing the same in Europe as well (reseller myself). McFarlane seems to produce an inital first batch, then when it sells out quick they do a 2nd run that releases 2 months later. Hasbro seems to take much longer with 2nd batches. They seemed surprised the re-releases did so well. Got half of them cancelled by them. My guess is they ship to USA, Canada & South America first so they take stock allocated for Europe to first fullfill those areas. Mattel is also starting to do that, but they always had shitty distribution in EU. We always get leftovers it seems.

I think you made some really great points along with this one which is pretty important, especially when it comes to the Star Wars black series Figures: character selection. They are finally making prequel characters that we have been wanting for a decade along with releasing some of the most expensive aftermarket figures.

I always thought it was to do with production numbers as i hadn't seen it happen so often before, but i never had any evidence.

Wow Nerdy lots of information, thanks for breaking down.

Thanks for helping us understand how things actually work in the business. I think it’s cool that you are so transparent. Great video!

Thank you for this info!!!

I have figure a that I been waiting for over two years. And they are always coming "next month". It is so annoying.

Thanks for this. I was literally just wondering this because these presales were selling out on my in a matter of minutes and I was finding myself toy-less lol. In the case with McFarlane, I’m just so frustrated because I feel like they’re finally getting around to doing the classic designs that I want and they’ve solved a lot of their issues. They came into their stride. And now these figs are drying up like Lake Mead and I’m struggling to get hands on the figures I actually wanted from McFarlane this whole time

Excellent video. I never ran/owed my owe store, but when I worked at GameStop in TX I use to visit the corporate HQ all the time. This was during the Toybiz days and before digital games were big. The pendulum analogy is a perfect explanation of what happens. This is also why pre-orders were pushed so much (and still is to this day). Selfishly I ended up getting some great rare figures for free when we would "penny them out" aka drop them down to a penny to clear them from inventory.

The clearance always happens if its not in the isle in 6 months its online in 1.5 years

Thank you for that insight. It logically makes sense. As a long time collector I have seen the trends you mentioned. As a fan it is still disappointing when something i really want is scarce. Patience is the key and a sense of humor

The fandom collector market has exploded . Platforms for marketing products,and reaching consumers has exploded. Years ago all we had were a few websites, forums and a couple magazines promoting new products. Then even before all that, there was the golden area of collecting, when you walked in a ToyRus,or any toy isle blindsided with no idea of what cool things you might find

Great video! So far I missed the Target Warbird and Electric Red Superman.

It also is happening with Mattel and especially when it’s a Walmart Exclusive or there own website exclusives there’s a good chance I’ll never see them in stores unless I drive hours away to look at other Walmarts. It’s worse when there is like 4 exclusive that come out right around each other I luckily found one of the four but to get the other three I have to pay almost $150 for them if not more. And I’ve been seeing Hasbro at least they have been rereleasing older figures like Space Venom and now Man Thing and I’ve seen that kinda driving people away from scalpers.

Yeah, clearance chicken is a no-go for me. If I want it, I either pre-order or buy it when I see it at retail. I feel the clearance sting sometimes, but that is the exception, not the rule for me as a collector. 32 years in and I have more regrets about passing up on a figure than seeing it on clearance for half of what I paid for it a few months earlier.

You can't tell me Platinum editions are not forced scarcity.

GREAT VIDEO! McFarlane usually does batches, look at the bat mobile. It was to be expected on reduced production numbers because of all the clearances. It was a ridiculous amount.

I also think that character selection plays into it also. I mean, batman forever figs? These are right in the wheelhouse of the current adult collector's age range. They should have known that would sell better than one of the current movies figs from two years ago

It's a crazy experience. When the pre-orders for Penguin, Captain Boomerang and Starfire dropped, I went to BBTS to put them in my cart. I put Penguin in, then Captain Boomerang, but Starfire had sold out already. I quickly went to checkout and secured those two before they also sold out 5 minutes later.

I was excited about pre ordering both tigerpaw with wreckage and ML target warbird but both sold out in minutes so hoping for them to go up after they hit the streets

The problem is they slowly been jumping up in price so in all honestly I'm fine with missing out on some.

People are waiting for clearance because of the ridiculous price increases…. They’re raising prices, & lowering quantity- it’s unfortunate for collectors

This is only happening for the retail releases. Fan channel and Amazon exclusives(some) are still there after months. Prime example is the wolverine and Sabertooth two pack. Sold out when it went up for preorder and now you can preorder again or buy online. That’s why Target and Walmart exclusive sell out and never come back. 🤷‍♂️

Making 50,000 Admiral Holdos that will wind up at Ollie’s then a landfill is baffling

If the toy companies had such a huge inventory, why couldn’t anything be found until it hit Ross and Ollies?

Very informative. It is always nice to hear from a store's perspective. Thanks.

That was both informative and entertaining! Thanks!

But how much does big bad toy store have in stock and hasbro pulse have in stock for these marvel legends. Like the retro scarlet spider? Like is it hundreds or in the thousands what is it specifically if anyone can help me

The fact that Hasbro hasn’t made more Gi Joe Classified Vamps makes me wonder what they’re thinking. They’re sitting on a lot of money.

How did Ross end up with so many GI joe Stalkers and Tomaz and Xamot when they barely showed up in any stores? Where was this secret inventory???? I was hunting hard for these.

Really appreciate this video and having someone on the retail side of the industry break it down.

FOMO sells stuff

The flaw with the Hasbro to Ollie's train is that for the most part, they overproduced figures no one wanted based on shows and movies (looking at Disney) a lot of people hated (Star Wars Sequels, a lot of recent MCU), now they are underproducing on figures across the board. Like seriously, if I were Hasbro I'd just make stuff based on OG Star Wars and evergreen Marvel and not worry about the current thing, and if Disney has a problem with it they can pound sand and try and find some other sucker company to produce figures no one wants.

I wonder what explains the Classified Vamp. They should have made enough of those to go around based on the popularity of the Hiss but it seems like Hasbro intentionally did not. They'll probably overcorrect with the Stinger and those will go to clearance.

According to mattel because i had a go around with them and used McFarlane as an example, they said he owns all of his manufacturers and that gives him an advantage over the largest toy company in the world lol

Thank you so much for this big nerdie🤯

Thank you! I've been wondering about this for a while. I have another question. Some figures, like Baki Hanma (Storm), sell out quickly, and I don't understand why. Is Baki Hanma so popular and that is why the figures sell out quickly? Did Storm only produce a small quantity of these figures? and if they are so popular, why not make more? Thanks a lot for sharing such great and interesting videos :)

I do hate hearing a pre oder drop while I'm at work and seeing it sold out by the time I'm off. I will say when the Plastic Man B.A.F wave dropped you were the only place I could pre order from after 8 pm CA time and I'm thankful to you Big Nerdy Sir

Walmart and Amazon both mark up popular toys above MSRP. Even for preorders. Not third party retailers shipping from Amazon or Walmart, but bought from and shipped from the company.

Great behind-the-scenes breakdown! Droppin' that knowledge!

Scalpers are still an issues. They found a way around the 2 per person limit by using several accounts in a browser. I seen a few ebay seller one with 12, another with 10 and another with 6 Marvel legends Warbirds in there inventory. Selling them for $99 each. Most people couldn't even get 1

It's dumb. There should be a pre-order window. After the time-line is over the product is made sort of like Haslab. Then everyone who wants one, gets one. Not a limited amount that sells out in seconds then immediately goes on eBay.

I rhought the purpose for the preorder is to see how many units are needed. But based off what you saying, it's more like he, we have 10k, and hasbro just send people whatever amount they feel is good enough for XYZ retailer.

5 years ago I had a huge life change and had to retire at the age of 42. My income dropped dramatically and now I can obviously no longer afford many things in life that I used to. One of which is my love of collecting action figures. I've mostly gone done to just getting Gi Joe classified, Action Force and a small handful of Star Wars The Black Series (I'll do a random series here and there from time to time). I was also bitten by the customize bug many years ago so the clearance section has become my best friend for several reasons. I honestly can't always afford the full price pre-orders or day of releases, but I do my absolute best when I can. I just hope I'm not making any enimies as I'm forced to cancel a lot of them along the way 😔

Great video thanks for the information more videos like this is needed thank you

love you big nerdy. thank you so much for giving us toy consumers a look behind the curtain. you are appreciated!

Thanks for sharing this!

At this point, both between the almighty budget and these smaller runs on figures, my system has become: -If its a must-have, pre-order on minute one, stay up a couple hours after night shift to get order in. Either at a BBTS or Nerdzoic if i can put the money down now -If it's not a 100% must-have and pre-orders close day one, pretend it doesnt exist until in-stock dates come up and we get a small run on in stock to decide if i *need* it in the collection

I had a really hard time getting the X-Men 97’ Wolverine and Rogue figures. I ended up having to get them for $35 each from a Canadian store so that I wasn’t paying $70 a figure.

Everyone running to Ross for X men 5 pack 😂

I’ll never understand how a pre-order can sellout? Shouldn’t it be open-in meaning a company says we’re going to offer a product for pre-order from one date to the next once those dates close that’s how many of the items we’re going to produce and sell… then if it’s a popular item, they can come back and revisit and produce a second batch of the item with a second presale from one opening date to an ending date…

The only time I missed out on a pre-order was for Wonder Woman and that was my fault because I just forgot. Luckily I work nights so when it comes to pre-ordering I have been able to order everything I have wanted when it comes to McFarlane. In fact I have a growing list and wouldn't mind him holding off on items I want for a bit. I have the following items on order Classic Darkseid, Batman Forever Wave, Bane vs Batman 2-pack, Fox/Tumbler 2-pack, BTAS Batmobile. I would be pretty upset though if I wasn't around when these items went up because most of them sold out within an hour tops.