These MLB Predictions By PECOTA Are A Joke Right? Orioles & Phillies DOWN | Red Sox & Cardinals UP? 

And that 83 win projection for the Mets would have them making the playoffs!!! I do think the Mets could win 83 (and I know 84 was enough to get 2 teams in from the NL last year, but I DON'T see that happening again...in 2022 86 was the lowest win team to make it in) but will miss out because I can see a central team grabbing one of the WC spots.

Pecota has been a joke for years. Constantly ranked the Orioles last during their mid 2010s run where they had the most wins in the AL from 12-16. I just ignore it from this point

Easy to justify: - The Goldy/Nado down seasons could be an outlier. It's a bit ridiculous to assume they're toast when they finished 1st & 3rd in MVP voting the year before. - The rotation, while it's still not good, is way better. Way better. - A completely revamped bullpen with a tandem of Middleton/Romero/Gallegos/Helsley could be insane. If Kittredge returns as his usual, dominant self, it's even scarier. - You're wrong: Gorman IS a star. Outside of a horrendous June, he was among the best hitters in the game. If he's healthy, he'll launch upwards of 40 bombs. - Why are you *confident* Gunnar will be better, but iffy on Walker? Makes no sense. He also was essentially league average defensively in RF the last couple months of the year. That improvement can't be understated. - Nootbaar & Donovan being healthy is game changing. You have to remember that everything that could've gone wrong in 2023, did go wrong. That won't happen again.

The Orioles will be great on offense, but they are going to SHOCK some people with their pitching this year!! Grayson Rodriguez was really coming out of his shell!

Cardinals were 36-26 when a starter went 6+ innings. They added 3 starters who average just under 6 innings per start. I’d expect 15-20 more 6+ inning starts which would =10 or so extra wins. Their bullpen additions also can pay off as they were tied for 5th in blown saves last year (28). If they improve their save % to league average they would add an additional 5 or so wins. The lineup was pretty good last year even with Goldschmidt and Arennado having down years. They very likely added 10-15 wins to their ‘23 total = 81-86 wins. Then ask yourself what has the NL Central done? Brewers have clearly gotten worse. Cubs haven’t done much to say they’ve improved drastically over last year. Reds added Montas but he’s pitched 8 games in the last 2 years. The Pirates were quiet this off-season. Under 90 wins likely easily wins the NL Central. Ultimately I think Cubs and Cards battle for the division with the Reds slightly behind.

I could see the Royals pushing 90 wins as a best case scenario. Locking up Bobby Witt should have done wonders for overall morale for not just him but the whole organization. They added Michael Wacha. They added Seth Lugo. They added Will Smith. They added Chris Stratton. They added Hunter Renfroe. They added Adam Frazier. They're a good team now.

As Cardinal fan. I disagree also with projections . Are 5 Sp are old guys and 3 my SPs hasn’t been good in long time. I see cubs or the reds winning the division. I don’t see the brewers winning it Bc your offense below avg and there starting pitching going to take a step back with 2 of the 3 big game pitchers aren’t there anymore. Pit to young to win the division right now

I get the criticism, but at the end of the day sports are weird and I don’t like to say people are wrong. I didn’t think the Reds would be good last year nor did I think the Rangers would win it all and the Mets and Cardinals sucking? I didn’t see that coming. I’m glad people have confidence to go against the grain. I do agree with Jim though on his takes.

That is horrible!! I'm thinking, well, that was before the Burnes trade right? Nope!!! Just AWFUL!!!

The Phillies projection made me pee my pants

Regarding Trout and LAA. He wants a no stress life and staying in LAA gets that done. Lets be real here, he isn't a winner. He does not have that trait. He wants that easy southern CA life.

Detroit and Cincinnati absolutely being disrespected on this projection. Think the Mets, Yankees and Cardinals are the flip side of that coin though.

Yah we added sonny gray and a old folks home and hoping for the best

I’m an Orioles fan but yeah I think 92 wins easy barring injuries. They were way too low last year and though I don’t think we win 100 again without Bautista, I think max we lose about 10 more games, which is actually about how many more blown saves the next best closer had last season. Bautista was that good.

Saying that the cardinals fans are just hoping its magically gonna be fixed is incredibly disingenuous. Their problem last year was pitching, so what did they do, go out and get 3 proven mlb pitchers, 1 who got 2nd in cy young, and they basically have an entire new bullpen of proven talent. Its a weird way to admit you dont actually pay attention to every teams off season moves, including bringing yadi back as "consultant to the gm" or whatever his title is, its basically to show Contreras how he prepped and everything but also setting up yadi as the next manager. Hey i know its difficult to actually know what every team has done as far as changes in the offseason, but just say that. Dont say, "we hope it gets magically better"

"positivity in terms of potential performance" I like a lotta alliteration.

I worked at UPS and they used past data to try and predict the future. It usually failed miserably.

If the Cardinals win 80 games I will be surprised. I feel 76 -78 Most likely

Cardinals really needed some better additions. Hopefully Gray can have a similar season to what we saw last year, but I have 0 expectations for the rest of the rotation. Waino retiring might honestly help the team. Loved watching him during his career, but any other guy who had that season would have been long gone way earlier in the season.

I can handle the Yankees being projected to win 95 games, even though that relies a lot on Judge and Soto to carry the team (Stroman was a nice pickup but he's not a CY anymore). I fully expect teams to just not pitch to either of those guys at certain points and dare the rest of the lineup to do damage, but hey. I get the hype. The biggest issue with those standings is that the Orioles aren't at least in 2nd place. No matter what you think their floor is, it's certainly better than Toronto, who added Justin Turner to replace Matt Chapman. Really? Yes, the Orioles are without Bautista for the season and replaced him with Kimbrel (I would say he's not as good as Felix but nobody is), okay. But to think anybody but the Yankees and Orioles will compete for the division is a joke.

I don't know a win total and I'm not just being a Homer. I picked the Cardinals to miss the playoffs last year and surprise I was right. They have improved the starters(still need a #2). The relievers are way better. The young core like Walker, Gorman, Donovan should begin to take over the offense more the older players. Plus the Brewers really has gone down. Until the Cubs get Bellenger back don't see them much better. Pirates no chance and the real threat are the Reds and the Cardinals are that good or better. They will get crushed in the playoffs without another stud starter.

You know even with the Giants. The players don't like to loose. They have another year of experience under there belt. Did the players train hard during the off season ? And then there is the Dodgers,. Did they there players just sit back and rely on last year's performance ? Did they do a little more partying and not enough training ? All of this can make a difference

San Diego.... I'd be surprised if they hit 75 wins this coming season

good video i would say st louis being magically fixed is the craziest i like the place as a whole but its not fixed !!!

The missed on the Orioles. I agree they should win the east, with 95 ish wins. The Yanks didnt fix their starting pitching, and i forsee them possibly finishing in 4th again, in a very rough division. I will say do not sleep on Pitt. 72-75 is probably right, but I wouldnt be surprised if they managed a 79-81 season, or even pull an orioles from 2 yrs ago. Lots of young potential talent, and remember in the first half of last season they were near the top.

For the Reds: Not sure how they got almost 5 ERA for Diaz. With the depth we have added his arm should not be overworked this year. Places I have looked so far show anywhere from high 2’s to low 3’s ERA. As far as the rest of the predictions go this is a very young team and we have yet to see how many of them preform over a full season with expectations being making the playoffs from day one. I imagine this factors into PECOTA’s numbers. Reds payroll was about $82M last year and that was with Votto and Moustakas contracts. Both contracts basically gave back little to nothing in the way of performance value. Sports track website says payroll for 2024 is about $113M. When I take away Votto/Moustakas’s salaries $47M that leaves net productive salaries of $45M in 2023. So in essence Reds have added about $68M in productive salaries this year. Sure hope that money nets us more than four less wins than the previous year as PECOTA projects.

if I'm high I definetly will fly. Pecota I do not sweat over their perspective/opinion. Happy Trails BallCap Jim

Cardinals only added one good pitcher in Sonny Gray!!? Lance Lynn just gave up a Home run to a little league player 😳 😐

Every year the Yankees are predicted to be the top and every year they slip

Jim, just because you’re not paying attention to everything doesn’t mean that teams you don’t follow haven’t improved their chances. I think you focus way too much on a few teams.

Reds - Show no one over .270 BA, no pitcher SP or RP with an ERA under 4. No one playing more than what, 138 games? It is insane across the board with the numbers. I just don't understand. But, hey I don't follow these projections until guys start calling them out. Then it gets fun. Thanks Jim!

Not a big fan of PECOTA predictions. Sure wouldn't lay a bet on their predictions.

Orioles were predicted to take a step back last year as well. They will be wrong again

No one thought the Rangers and Dbacks would be the WS this time last year.

Thats not how proyections work, if you want to put more wins of a team you need to take them from another team that plays them on the calendar

The Mets got worse how are they winning 84 games

I know I'm going to be called hater here. But I don't think the Dodgers even win a 100 games. They don't have the best offense in the league that's Atlanta. They probably have the sixth or seventh best offense in the majors. And I know I'm gonna get hate for this. And you're gonna be like who has a better offense. Besides atlanta than the dodgers well houston does I think Arizona does. Baltimore certainly does. The phillies And the Rangers. But you're gonna say to me. But what about their pitching, okay, if they don't get injured, Yeah, they might have the best rotation in the league. But we're talking about A majority of their rotation who haven't made a full season pitching In the past couple of years. And if that trend continues can you rely on that pitching staff

Padres have only 2 outfielders on the Roster counting Tatis Jr who has 1 year of outfielder experience 🤔

85 wins keep in mind last year we had a crappy trea turner no Bryce for half the year Nolas worst year we had the worst start just about ever but sure that season is gonna have more wins than this one this list is atrocious

Two things about Baltimore: 1. They overachieved last year by 7 games. Their expected record was 94-68. 2. These figures may have been compiled prior to them acquiring Burnes. They jumped 18 wins from 2022 to 2023, with a lot of relatively unknown players. Until proven otherwise, that 2023 performance really looks like an aberration. With Burnes on the team, I'd probably project them at 90-92 wins. Without, I think 86-90 seems reasonable. Pecota is on the low side, but not horribly unreasonable.

Orioles at 87 wins? They probably are a better team this year, with Burnes added and Holliday on the way. Some players had great years, but others like Mountcastle and Mullins had down years. Adley, Gunner, and GRod should be better than last year, too.

The cardinals won’t do anything. The core players are great. But the problem is pitching is awful. Not worst in the league bad, but not enough to be a contender

I mean. It's probably just taking their own war projections and applying them to each team lol. And baseball prospectus war is already weird as hell. Kinda expected. If you like their version of war, then you should like their projections, if you don't, then just dont engage with prospectus

Does this website ever get anything right?

Was this made before the Corbin Burnes trade?

Jim's always been a Cardinals hater lol😅

Wrong O's and NYYs.

NL has a lot of good-not-great teams. D-Backs, Padres, Reds, Cubs, Mets, Marlins are all 75-85 win range so who knows who's gonna get out of that melee into the playoffs to be the NL's underdog story this year. My bets are on Arizona and Chicago. Unrelated: interested to see this year if the Orioles fans will turn up so Camden doesn't become Yankee Stadium South once a month. The environment in Baltimore is going to be ELECTRIC when the Yankees come to town either way. I have a feeling that the series in the Bronx 9/24-9/26 will decide the AL East champ.

Bet the over on the Braves

Welcome to most Rays fans complaint about Pecota. Almost every year, they undersell grossly the Rays. (Yes, the Rays have fans. Save your regurgitated joke).

Yankees at first 😭😂

Baltimore Orioles will win the east Yankees 88 wins Mets 83

NL Central rankings are terrible. Cincy deserves to be at the top for now with about an 84 win projection. As-is, the Cubs are fine at 80, but subject to significant improvement if they make an expected addition. The Brewers could have been right there in the mix at the top of the division, but are falling and who knows how much further. The Cardinals at 85+??? I'm sorry but even after the retirement of Wainwright that rotation is 36, 34, 37 in May, 33 in May, and 35! Arenado is 33 in April and Goldschmidt is 36. That's a whole lot of old. Pirates...they have some super-promising talents on the way, but even when Skenes and Johnson get there I wonder how they will be able to fill in the gaps around the Cruz and Reynolds. Kind of reminds of recent Angels teams, with a couple awesome players then a whole lot of nothing. But the Orioles are absolutely the craziest projection. They have to be a *conservative* 93 win team and easily 3 wins better than the Yankees.

The Orioles were 30-16 in one run games last season. Only the Marlins were better. While I think a 14 game drop is pushing it too far they don't have their closer from last season all this upcoming season so I think you can expect a pretty good size drop in the one run record. The Yankees were without Judge for much of the season and had a hurt Judge for another part of the season. All the Phillies have done so far this off season is get older for the most part.

and the o's scoring 40 less runs than the jays is laughable

Nah, AL West is a bad projection. 90 wins and the division for the Mariners, 90 wins and the Wild Card for Houston, Texas will win 84 and miss the playoffs. The Angels will win 75 games, Oakland might lose 120 games lol.

So you're not expecting any sort of jump from the Mariners? Multiple young position players now approaching their 3rd-4th years in the league. Elite pitching staff. Top-5 bullpen. Offense that dumped 2x -2 WAR players and made many, decent, under the radar pickups. But you're expecting Houston, who just keeps aging and hasn't done much to improve the roster that won 90 games... to win 95 as the FLOOR. Bro... your takes sometimes.

Pecota never gives the Orioles any love. We use their predictions as a rallying cry. When will they finally become a believer.

The reds. Most disrespected team because of past history with bad teams.

Is is possible that PECOTA has better information and more expertise than a podcaster?

I think Baltimore and Yankees be 1 or 2 either way. Both could be 1st. If judge misses time and Rodon pitches horrible Yankees could be 3rd place

I would have had Baltimore around 94. Yankees 90.

I don't know if it's good or bad for the Braves that PECOTA picked them to take the division for the 7th time in a row with over 100 wins. Usually PECOTA picks them to finish around 4th and then they win it. The Braves seemed to really enjoy PECOTA underestimating them every year.

Yankees aren't winning 95 lol they'll barely crack .500

The Cardinals should be at least that high and to say the pitching hasn't been addressed is just ignorant and here's why. You replace Waino who just had the worst season for a starting pitcher in baseball history with 100+ innings and pitchers like drew verhagen and others filling in with Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. Those two will at least be serviceable and pitch 180+ innings each which will massively help the also improved bullpen because the won't constantly be covering for 2-4 inning starts all the time. We lose Jordan Montgomery (who was only here half the season btw) but add Sonny Gray for a full season. The pitching will be much better. Then on the position player side Walker actually had a +1 drs in the last month last year. He literally hadn't played the outfield before last year and will only get better so he's no longer a detriment out there. And then if you just assume health this teams offense will just be better, the core 7 everyday guys only played a total of 12 games all together last season. Lastly the 2023 Cardinals weren't a 71 win team until they sold at the deadline and essentially gave up (the smart move but just saying). If this team is in it especially after the year they just had the front office will add not subtract. 85 wins is the floor for the Cardinals.

Tge orioles

The only glaring hole in Baltimore's team that I can will be the bullpen. Last season, that bullpen was incredibly shaky after Felix's injury, and I'm not fond of Kimbrel as the closer. If D.L. Hall was the closer I'd feel much better about the situation. I think there's a chance that Bradish and G-rod could regress after last season much the same way Kremer regressed last season. So I can see why Pecota would believe the O's could take a step back.

Tampa will yet again figure out how to win 90+ games - it doesn’t really matter what cards are dealt to Kevin Cash. What I really, really want the Ray’s front office to do this year is make the necessary moves at the trade deadline to enhance their ability to go deep in the playoffs - I’m talking about bold moves, not just little tweaks. They shouldn’t make those types of moves this off-season - they need to wait and assess the situation in July because Cash will have them in a good position at that time.

The White Sox will surprise good, or surprise bad. With the moves made by Getz to shore up the defense and improve the pitching staff they are not the same team they were last year. I predict 3rd place ahead of the Tigers and KC, with 78 wins. Cubs first in the NL Central particularly if they sign Belli. But even if not in that weak division. The Reds finishing second. The Dodgers might win 110 games.

Disagree with jim he needs to look at some more stats from St. Louis nootbar 18 % above league average last year Jordan walker putting on more mussel Gorman is hitting 40 home runs Donavan is a gamer we potentially have a top 5 offense and with the rotation I’d love to add another high end starter but at Louis record with a quality start last year was 35-15 we added Kyle Jonson tht had like 16 quality last year and Lynn Thts gonna get u some I just think cards are gonna win 88 plus games

I can see the cards coming back this year, redemption season, it's a world class orginazation playoffs or division is a must in that orginazation, last year was embarrassing for them as well they will be playing with a chip on their shoulders. As for me watchout for Gorman and Walker, especially Gorman I see him dropping 35-40 homers easy if he can cut down the strikeouts, as the rotaion got waaaaaaaaay better by adding a Cy young candidate in Gray.

When you talk about last year vs this the Dodgers won 100 games with no starter putting in more than 131 innings. I say 108-54.

Dodgers might Challenge the 2001 Mariners of 116 Wins 🏆 🤔 👏 💙 101 Wins 🏆 💙 is a little low 💙

HONESTLY I LIVE IN PHILLY IM A LIFE LONG PHILLIES FAN ! BUT I DON'T SEE THEM GOING FAR. THIS TEAM DID ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO GET BETTER, WHILE OTHER TEAMS DID. 2 YEARS IN A ROW THEY WERE NOT GOOD ENOUGH. THEY WERE EMBARRASSED 😣 BY THE DIAMONDBACKS THEIR BEST PLAYERS AND PITCHERS DIDN'T SHOW UP.....AND THEY ARE GOING TO TRY AND RUN IT BACK AGAIN.......SMH MAYBE THEY JUST NEED TO GET EMBARRASSED YET ANOTHER YEAR BEFORE THEY ADDRESS PITCHING AND A BETTER CENTER FIELD BAT..... CAUSE ROJAS IS TRASH AT THE PLATE....,.

This is wrong. My Red Sox are not going to win so many games, particularly with the pitching rotation they currently have. Hope they prove me wrong.

Look predictions are interesting. Now we play 162 games and well see what happens.

Reds r better

JimRiley really simpin for Philly fan viewership.

People take this too seriously. The Computer doesn't predict the correct amount of wins and people lose it. "I say thee nay", people scream as they run and grab their torches. pitchforks.

Reds the worst disrespect almost funny

Yankees think 97 wins maybe 94. I will say orioles 86 wins that's current, also blue jays 88 wins

The yankees will go 92-70 with the team right now but if they trade for a closer like Devin Williams before spring traineing or sign Blake snell before spring training ( i don’t think both ) then they will win 95 to 97 games in my opinion does anyone agree with me

But the rest of the central hasnt done a lot reds still need pitching, brewers are entering a rebuild, cubs are a solid 2nd prolly, and pirates arent ready yet

Reds have terrible pitching. They do not improve. Cubs got worse. Come on, Jim! Lets not be this wrong

O's win ( Going all in ) 107 Games. If they add Bauer too rotation? 112 plus games. Bauer, Burns, Bradish, Rodriguez, and Means is a Nightmare for Every team! "Killer Bee's" !

Chicago (no Bellinger) and Milwaukee (no Burnes) are considerably weaker. STL won't be going 10-16 against those two teams again in 2024. Honestly though, it looks like a full on toss-up in the NL-Central. I would have put the top 4 teams at 81 wins.

Cardinals: Better Starting pitching, better bullpen - much better bullpen, Jordan Walker/Wynn 2nd year, Noot is healthy....easily wins the division. I think you are sadly, very, very wrong

The New York Yankees will Win The World Series Championship 2024

#freeMikeTrout