This is a 'historic' moment for the UK's economy, says Mohamed El-Erian

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Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to react to the Bank of England's decision to temporarily buy long-term bonds to stabilize the market. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: cnb.cx/2NGeIvi
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27 сен 2022

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Комментарии : 515

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In my opinion, the remedy to weather this recession and high inflation is short-term trading, as opposed to long-term, most folks using these techniques are netting a ton of gains, sure the risks are higher but yet again isn't the current market equally as risky?

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@onedrop7967 Год назад

EL-Erian is one of the very best reasons to watch cnbc. Thank You for bringing us his voice.

@DocDanTheGuitarMan Год назад

Truss has no clue. UK is losing control. They can’t solve energy without dealing w Russia so they won’t, they can’t cut taxes and can’t raise taxes, so they have to print and raise rates. Gravity will exert its affects on gilts and the sterling.

@tatianafoule6257 Год назад

That's no fair. Bc i didn't expect and trust them anyone for doing nothing . I just can achive it for myself. They never gave me nothing more than their reject. They build up this system and look forward. I never could exist for any of them why i must exist now. They are ultra ironic. And Herd (which is this Core) respond are insulting, so then they build up this total reality hipocrecy older. They all are nasty bases.

@andrescast Год назад

The ONLY reason**

@sonsautomotive Год назад

when i bought my house in 2000 i paid 7.5% interest...the world did not fall apart because of it....".the longer you stay in la la land with QE and low-interest rates the harder it is to get out".......love Mohamed El-Erain

@wreckim Год назад

Yes, but there is so much pressure on one administration or political party to perform immediately, and not let the pain begin when it should...delay, delay, delay. Then it's much worse. I have no idea what the future holds with 8% mortgages, sky-high rents, inflation through the roof, and prices not budging on homes hardly. Builders are going to just slow the whole damn thing down to a halt IMO; they will not build thousands of units so that Blackrock can buy them for pennies on the dollar.

@JigglyPuffMafia Год назад

But now the world would fall apart because the economy is addicted to artificially low rates

@Angie-in8wc Год назад

@U Wot To add to your comment, one of the reasons housing costs increased so dramatically was because of low interest rates. The banks were throwing cheap money at home buyers, which increased competition for properties and pushed prices up. It’s a vicious circle.

@favin86 Год назад

You probably bought the house for 100k. I can't find it for less than 500k in Canada.

@alphabeta8403 Год назад

*One of the very FEW who makes sense on CNBC*

@lisawomyn21 Год назад

Loved that mohamed brought the conversation to la la land w low interest and QE. Joe (who never talks truth) was like “um - that’s not what I was talking about.” Joe is such a tool.

@criessmiles3620 Год назад

Europe is broke Old Cold 🥶 Wet With no commodities to trade from The continent is just Useless Tell macron to stop begging Africa Cheers from west Africa 🦅

@Hi-Per Год назад

❤

@ocvegasproperty Год назад

Too bad he was so wrong in 2020…

@tatianafoule6257 Год назад

@@ocvegasproperty when you mean stupidity has super bases gases efects and rules😍😍

@maudo2077 Год назад

Mr. Mohamed is one of the Best Analyst around. His word is Bond

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I just searched and found her web blog and I've reached out hoping to get a response soon.

@ravilleortiz Год назад

Mohamed EL-Erian great interview

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Same here, My portfolio has been going down the drain while I try trading,l just don't know what I do wrong

@rabefalanse9250 Год назад

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@@xavieraustin2340 YOU DON'T NEED TO BE SHOCK BECAUSE I'M ALSO A HUGE BENEFICIARY OF expert MR NICHOLAS

@analytic_panda Год назад

too much debt, too much money, too much inflation, and too many central banks...

@EM-tx3ly Год назад

Sounds like a cycle

@robertagren9360 Год назад

UK has become the new Japan.

@analytic_panda Год назад

@@robertagren9360 Japanese never strike!!! UK will become Argentina(:

@robertagren9360 Год назад

@@deesus1085 Japan buy their own bonds since nobody want to buy them.

@bulthaosen1169 Год назад

@@robertagren9360 yeah.

@DashCamera Год назад

Well said Mohamed ! It is historic,

@tatianafoule6257 Год назад

Y.e.s...... my position sounds like a complaint! When they are ultra ironic and this is pedo nasty. Shut up ! YES i mean HERD CARGO is everything bc they respond over something pointless. They just throw out.

@nolimitbanks7318 Год назад

Hope we can all get along for our kids sake.

@barrysingh8813 Год назад

Excellent response by El-Erian. He told it like it is.

@kylejohnhaley Год назад

Thank you for transparency Mr El-Erian

@joonhwi86 Год назад

Smirk on the guy baffles me profusely

@Dedicated_.1 Год назад

1:35 I actually analysed the cost of the tax cuts and the energy package. The tax cuts are honestly not very expensive, it’s the energy package that is. The tax cuts are actually growth positive and need to come in as soon as possible. The energy package I’m less keen on but is very popular unfortunately.

@Finance-Food-and-Freetime Год назад

Can you explain that in more detail? Do you mean that as incomes have inflated?

@Dedicated_.1 Год назад

@@Finance-Food-and-Freetime For legal reasons I can’t give specific numbers as proprietary. However, the tax cuts are a few billion in terms of fiscal revenue fall and would support spending during a monetary tightening period. Leading to income led rather than debt led growth. See Reagan Volcker. However, the energy package is a high debt load policy with less return on capital. If there’s any return on the energy package it will be from preventing riots about high energy bills due to the Russia Ukraine conflict.

@st_eunice8818 Год назад

The RE prices must go down as they are in bubble. Yes it is painful but it all comes down to monthly payment. If they try to avoid correction in RE prices then it is game over.

@DS-vx3wf Год назад

they will.... they will in many parts of the world!

@truthteller8965 Год назад

Very well said. I've been saying the same thing for a while now Bank of England is trying to avoid rate hikes to prevent the housing market crash But the housing market is inflated anyway In 2020, the housing market conditions were made so artificially favourable so that anyone could buy more than they could afford on a long term Now, they are trying to protect the bubble they built

@vishalsaroha1489 Год назад

In UK , fiscal policy finally meets Monetary policy. In bad times, it is Fiscal policy which must lead monetary policy.

@hoshifuyo4494 Год назад

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@hoshifuyo4494 Год назад

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@hoshifuyo4494 Год назад

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@emmanuelchikwendu5492 Год назад

@@hoshifuyo4494 By following trades, do you mean copying her trades, as it is done in etoro? Are you giving her your money or the money says in your account? I have heard about copying trades but have not looked into it. But i have an idea of what it is.

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@praveenspike Год назад

Each country has to go with their own way, the population and everything differs by a huge gap which includes the exchange rates, if dollar was the only currency for US and the whole of EU then there you will have a valid point without an exchange rate.

@supermash1 Год назад

Your comment makes no sense.

@gloin10 Год назад

"This is a 'historic' moment for the UK's economy" says Mohamed El-Erian it is indeed. It marks the UK's transition from a First World economy to a Third World one. A couple of years ago, a group of economic researchers published a paper pointing out that sterling was displaying many of the characteristics usually associated with the currencies of emerging economies....

@cg5648 Год назад

Once again Peter Schiff was right; he told you to stop the quantitative easing but no. This crash will be epic.

@jordanepellerin6684 Год назад

Where is gold ? I thought it would go up.. He doesn't have a clue 😑

@rameshpudhucode6862 Год назад

He has been talking about Gold last 30 years. Where is he now.

@JoeBlow-nh7mp Год назад

@@deesus1085 The problem is that by the time most of us will want to buy gold, there will be none left.

@Nick-sd7um Год назад

@@deesus1085 buy gold lol? Better off panning or searching for it out of the ground.

@frankyhonnolus5528 Год назад

@@jordanepellerin6684 It did go up. Where were you all day? In the bathroom snapchatting?

@waynejones5635 Год назад

After many years of central banks printing massive sums of money and manipulating the markets, the cracks of economic reality is really starting to show. There is NOTHING holding this bubble economy up, once the free money is removed. Inflation is become a major problem and central banks missed the boat once again and are running to catch up. The days a free money are over and the global markets will need to adjust in a serious way. This is just the start of things to come.

@jacobwatson3781 Год назад

And corporate profits, corporate profits are leading to inflation.

@darrenb1117 Год назад

Mohamed is my go-to economist TV/Twitter/FT anywhere......an almanack of finance!

@prappypat Год назад

Will the UK print money to fund these purchases? Maybe, or they'll go the Japanese route and start selling US Treasuries to fund this campaign. If that's the case, first Japan, then the UK. We could be at the precipice of a massive dumping of US Treasuries. Effectively exporting international inflation right back into the US and challenging the Dollars status as the global reserve currency.

@TheCulturedThug Год назад

The UK is a debtor country, what level of US Treasuries do we really own?

@prappypat Год назад

@@TheCulturedThug The UK is the third largest holder of US debt at over 600 billion USD.

@prappypat Год назад

I feel like every central bank has a choice to make: Destroy their own economies. Or Dump T - Bills.

@robertagren9360 Год назад

US want to obtain inflation but the rest of the world is in debt. USA pumped China to stimulate the inflation and economic growth. Japan is stuck in inflation and want it to reduce but nobody want to buy their bonds.

@TheCulturedThug Год назад

@@prappypat Wait WTF, why do we have all that? What's the reason?

@brianclark4639 Год назад

This is AN historic moment.

@Mithril_Antimarr Год назад

BOE's market intervention was temporary and by design very short term trying to stabilise the debt market... UK interest rates will need to go up, they will hesitate for a few days maybe even a couple of weeks but they will have an emergency meeting to agree the size of the next rate rise.

@varuzhshakbazyan5732 Год назад

Haha temporary? And what happens when their temporary intervention is ended? Bond market implodes! Central banks all over the globe have shot themselves in the foot. Their idiotic free money policies are to blame for this mess. Now the Boe is using inflation to fight the collapse of their bond market. Inflation is going to skyrocket!

@RicVee1 Год назад

LOL..no government intervention is temporary. This is the new BOE policy and you will see at least a decade of QE just like the US.

@XORTION Год назад

Need to be a big hike don’t you think? Maybe 4%

@RicVee1 Год назад

@@XORTION They are not going to raise rates, they have gone the QE route. The BOE is going FULL BORE QE and there will be no rate hikes, just rate decreases

@Oxol33 Год назад

QE will be inflationary if done for much longer. Inflation is already too high, there is no room for any more QE. This was just a liquidity injection to prevent a full blown panic. It is not a long term solution. The only tool they have left is to raise rates.

@sang3Eta Год назад

What we should recognise is that the UK M1£ supply is almost half the US$ supply, per citizen. The UK has been far more prudent with the money printer!

@lewisrashe831 Год назад

Looks like the UK will choose a currency crisis over a financial debt crisis. Trying to do bond/debt market bailouts with inflation this high will melt down their currency. Two choices for a lot of countries soon will be to choose between a sovereign debt crisis or a currency crisis.

@supermash1 Год назад

Interesting. You can see that all the financial commentators / talking heads are clueless. Only Mohamed made any sense. I'm struck by how all these "finance experts" really have no clue what is going down.

@JoeBlow-nh7mp Год назад

Looking back at monetary history, 99% of countries will choose the monetary crisis or at a bare minimum high inflation as a way to pay back debt they couldn't otherwise pay back.

@kingjustice1831 Год назад

And this is GOOD!!!

@mcotton3077 Год назад

“This isn’t some 3rd world country… This is Europe!!” Part 2😂

@MrAndyblue52 Год назад

Amazing all part of the plan afterall

@onedrop7967 Год назад

The Fed is doing the right thing raising rates. To much free money is bad for people long term and does not provide any protection. It creates an environment of pending collapse. Housing was always going to take a bath when rates go up. It will take 2-3 years for normalization of these higher rates. If you act with shock, that's on you. Housing starts, refinancing, new home sales are going off a cliff. It is to be expected. If you got a house with a low interest rate then take a victory lap. Enjoy! We should hope that the economy never gets so bad that we need to see rates this low again.

@gmshadowtraders Год назад

They are destroying the economy! On purpose!

@TheStringBreaker Год назад

*Becky Quick is a great journalist!*

@mariusbleek Год назад

So the BoE is simultaneously buying long maturity gilts AND raising rates? How does that work?

@MelanieStar12 Год назад

Never answer the question whether central banks are working together

@youtubetim3577 Год назад

Anyone who thinks that United States and other places won't pivot as well to support the UK is out of their mind

@harukrentz435 Год назад

1. The US is the one who caused this problem in the first place, 2. Who are these other places youre refering to? Because europe and japan are all facing the same situation.

@failuretocommunicate Год назад

I could be wrong, but I got the impression that the journaltainer didn't quite like what he was hearing.

@wilee.coyote5298 Год назад

The Fed should have a separate rate for housing. Trying to slow the entire economy just for the biggest inflationary purchase is distorted.

@aheroictaxidriver3180 Год назад

I have a degree in economics from a prestigious US college. I have been studying economics my whole life. I can't figure out what these idiots are doing. This seems to be a panic, which is the last thing they should do. 10% inflation is not as bad as panic-driven policy. They can't see past the election cycle, I guess.

@bulthaosen1169 Год назад

Honestly I don't think you need a degree in economics to know something basic as this. They are truly fools.

@gmshadowtraders Год назад

Your degree is full of math assumptions and theories which are 150 years old. It doesn't prepare you for the real, criminally insane and unfair world, the one outside the glasshouse library your lecturers built for themselves.

@erickobetitsch6055 Год назад

The world is cracking before all of our eyes.

@wreckim Год назад

Pumping money, QE, direct payments, loan forgiveness, and more; it's been a hell of a free ride. Not. We are finding out.

@orwellhuxley6301 Год назад

CNBC simply does get it.

@jesus2400 Год назад

Mohammad nailed it.

@Michael-ut6mu Год назад

Everything is “historic” and “unprecedented!” Not really but it’s what passes for conventional wisdom today.

@RichardSKLim Год назад

El-Erian is spot on! We are in a new paradigm shift. The old playbook brought us to the brink of total destruction.

@bitcoindaddy1 Год назад

What he didn't say was if BOE can't raise rates while doing QE, then they will start dumping US treasuries and sell dollars or do a emergency swap. Theres $7T US treasuries foreign reserves and China and Japan just indirectly told fed to cut it the F out or we will dump our US treasuries and dollar holdings. Feds can forget QT $9T MBS

@bitcoindaddy1 Год назад

We are not in a new paradigm shift it's the same old playbook 😂

@Tony-dk1bp Год назад

Who cares about what they are talking about when you get to look at Becky?

@EM-tx3ly Год назад

Tony You Son of a Gun

@netstarr77 Год назад

The FTSE was just like the US market way overvalued.

@ruthlessluder Год назад

So why is it weakening the dollar? Is it because people expect the fed will follow suit by being more dovish?

@maxangeles6279 Год назад

Greedy governments want all your taxes!! Get rid of government officials and politicians!!

@relaxpinknoise Год назад

"hoarckkeet" lmao everytime he saying it

@parroldangel5042 Год назад

I'm DCAing in AMC27X as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. I'm taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!

@dagomacc Год назад

What's going on???

@DocDanTheGuitarMan Год назад

I’m waiting for Cramer to come on screaming again. Do we have weeks, months until that happens?

@omegabat3986 Год назад

Amazing it's like TaxCut don't always solve problems.

@kezblu Год назад

agreed but "go ahead with structural reform"?? what does that mean? it sounds like you don't know what structural reform the UK has already been through

@eljangoolak Год назад

We want central banks to stop printing money and debt with no restrictions so we don't get to this position...

@jacobwatson3781 Год назад

Government spending isn't the only cause for world inflation, it would be nice if is was that simple but it's not.

@podtunnie3087 Год назад

Its money printing all the way it was always goner crash ,bring back gold standed

@jacobwatson3781 Год назад

@@podtunnie3087 gold standard couldn't battle inflation, its one of the gold standards biggest weaknesses.

@eljangoolak Год назад

@@jacobwatson3781 did I ever say it was the only reason? but it leads to a chain of events that makes countries very vulnerable and when things get rough almost always governments tighten the noose on the average person to pay for their deficiency. you can't deny though over spending and all these quantative easings which were supposed to be temporary measures since 2008 have given rise to a hidden inflation bubble that was just waiting for a trigger to burst.

@jacobwatson3781 Год назад

@@eljangoolak I would say demand issues, supply chain issues, war in Ukraine, manufacturing in China slowed, with government spending caused inflation.

@timmanto1022 Год назад

This looks like the prequel to V for Vendetta.

@wise145 Год назад

The US is in the tank as well.

@tmcche7881 Год назад

No Joe. We want central banks to stop debasing currencies and to reduce leverage and control the extent of government debt creation by maintaining positive real interest rates.

@Lisa-mp7ig Год назад

So BOE pivoted. Is FED next?

@jordanslingluff287 Год назад

No. There is no reason to pivot in America. It will make things worse. Inflation must be tamped out.

@quinnh1398 Год назад

They didn't pivot. Still raising rates but decided to do tax cuts, etc.

@Lisa-mp7ig Год назад

@@jordanslingluff287 Look at the bond yields. 10 year reached 4% already.

@jordanslingluff287 Год назад

@@Lisa-mp7ig Yeah. It probably needs to be 4.5-5% to slow things down and probably needs to be above 3.5-4% all of next year. In my opinion of course. Seems to be a long the lines of the feds guidance.

@itseveryday8600 Год назад

if anything, once the midterms are over, fed will be more hawkish.

@anakinskywalkerii4350 Год назад

Didn’t Rishi say he would not cut taxes?

@jamesbogart Год назад

😄 Rishi is not the chancellor.

@anakinskywalkerii4350 Год назад

@@jamesbogart - I know. But I meant that he warned against doing this when he was running for Truss’s job. Guess he was right.

@Dedicated_.1 Год назад

@@anakinskywalkerii4350 Rishi was incompetent.

@anakinskywalkerii4350 Год назад

@@Dedicated_.1 - perhaps but he was nevertheless right about not cutting taxes. Truss has gone all Reagan on the UK.

@Dedicated_.1 Год назад

@@anakinskywalkerii4350 No he was not right. The media really has misled the people. If you actually run the numbers, the tax cuts are minor in terms of fiscal effect, however the energy package is the real mover in terms of debt. The tax cuts are actually the right policy for fostering a pro-growth environment, in contrast to the stagnating and increasing tax European bureaucracy which Rishi wanted to copy.

@zulharriansyahsyamsul3970 Год назад

tex cut, more stimulus to tackle inflation just like take down fire with gasoline

@Tymbus Год назад

This is all very well, but could you talk more about the people impacted by Truss's scheme: Money being borrowed to pay the wealthiest in society, the inevitable decline in social services, wage freezes coupled with inflation, another attack on the welfare state. This is an utter disaster for the majority of British people.

@mikehundt4263 Год назад

Mohammed doesn’t seem to understand that the BOE capitulated because it has no other options. The Fed will do the same, and soon. Long gold, silver, short the USD (soon)

@SuperlativeCG Год назад

It's big business.

@JinKee Год назад

1) borrow £ 2) use £ to buy $ 3) ??? 4) PROFIT!

@dagsterblaster4973 Год назад

Currency and rate manipulation will always catch up with society. The attempt by the BOE to fight this is only going to make them tired and even more broke.

@michaeldusso6882 Год назад

HOW BAD IS IT ? ……investors are resorting to using meteorological “spaghetti charts” in lieu of their candle charts.

@georgemaximus694 Год назад

UK is going into hyperinflation soon. It’s game over. J Powell and the rest of the world can watch what happens when central bank pivots during a fight against inflation. Lot more pain. It’s actually good for the US we get to export inflation out of the country with a strong dollar but not so much for UK.

@gmshadowtraders Год назад

That's pretty much it. I had some dickhead go at me when I explained the same thing, that the US is exporting pain and misery to the rest of the world. The Petro Dollar and World reserve currency status you guys have, are basically the ultimate WMD. How ironic huh?

@chafikab7547 Год назад

The more you stay in this LaLa land, the harder the exit will be. Well said👍

@Wilson49100 Год назад

I like him as difficult as it is it has to be done, and all the bulls will have to take there medicine

@farukurgun3372 Год назад

Truly love your candidness, I DCAed today again for BTC AMC27X and ETH

@SS-qb6ye Год назад

POUND will COLLAPSE while US DOLLAR will SKY ROCKET and there is nothing anyone can do about it!!!

@amatuer2 Год назад

Brits should never have left the EU

@killbotone6210 Год назад

The old world is dying and the new world has yet to be born.

@gerhard7323 Год назад

'A major paradigm shift in financial conditions' El Erian.

@bathayijanathaparty9993 Год назад

This is what Rishi said with Lizz plans no one believed because they want to listen to what they want to listen to period

@jerrymoriarty3319 Год назад

What does the UK offer for sale to the world to justify income?

@rockymarcianothe3rd135 Год назад

blinking? more like squinting

@cs-recep3291 Год назад

BRO WHY ARE YOU NOT TALKING ABOUT AMC27X

@xzaiverwillis8148 Год назад

13% Inflation Rate... This is just the beginning.... Freeze 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶 Mode.

@steveb1370 Год назад

How about no exit, I would think officials would be smarter than this allowing this huge volatility, it's ridiculous. Then they ask themselves why populations are aging, open the blinders you clowns

@rikardosalampesi3677 Год назад

I LOVE YOU...........................MAHATMA GANDHI JI.......................................................................

@esebabagaming5881 Год назад

Binance CEO talk about AMC27X and hinted let it list on binance, cant imagine the price at 2023!.

@jarrodyuki7081 Год назад

yep!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

@jamesbogart Год назад

Because our Chancellor is from the banana republic so we have a third world economic outcome.

@tomtomtombossa Год назад

😂

@ironmikehallowween Год назад

This is a path to destruction.

@yc3932 Год назад

El Erian should be the the Federal Reserve Chairman. ✅ (assuming he can)

@BigORat Год назад

High Gasoline = High Inflation. True in the 70's - True in the 20's. Gasoline moves the world.

@thomaskauser8978 Год назад

TIPS AND MINERS!

@mikailsins2638 Год назад

Yes I saw Amazon AMC27X they announced a partnership with huobi

@diesel92kj1 Год назад

The UK has the second highest "lowest tax rate" in the world & again the second highest "highest tax rate" in the world. Cut it all in half for everyone, end VAT, VED & Property Tax & reduce fuel tax by half.

@mikionos Год назад

CNBC: "OMG Billionaires are losing money ! Fed has to stop it right now!"

@shdmd2118 Год назад

Are you ignorant? Every person who has a 401k or even a 2000 IRA account is losing money

@hyperbolekid Год назад

Umm the Billionaires provide jobs for the people.

@harrisonwintergreen1147 Год назад

panic in the UK = time to buy UK stocks

@FlyingFun. Год назад

I can assure you the UK population does not want this nonsense, we were all shocked by this announcement and I know conservatives days are numbers now if they weren't already. Thing is everyone let the cheap money roll out for WAY too long and now there is no way out apart from hiking interest rates while st the same time trying to grow an economy that's strong enough to pay the national debt. The tax cuts weren't needed or asked for and are a big gamble, I think they will be reversed before they even get started in April. The us should not try to follow suit imho but I give up trying to second guess what any politician will do these days, I think they are being blackmailed by the elite to do the opposite of what is good for the country.

@siypic Год назад

Who are the alternative to the conservatives?

@FlyingFun. Год назад

@@siypic labour , they can balls things up just as easily though lol. I think we should put the monarchy in charge personally , at least we would have some long sighted direction and decision making.

@siypic Год назад

@@FlyingFun. Is my point really.... we are a rudderless ship....

@FlyingFun. Год назад

@@siypic yep, I'm in my mid 50s and I have seen it all go round and round going no where but down hill lol. Need some coherent strategy that does actually make sense and stick to it.