Ukraine turning into a ‘Forever War’ 

"USA doesn't lose wars, it loses interest", nothing can be so true than this

"They are about to find out why America has no universal healthcare" Okay... This has to be my favorite quote of the week xD

I think people who are saying this is turning into a forever war have forgotten how long near peer conventional wars tend to be. The Korean war was 3 year. The Second World War was 6 years. We are slightly passed year one of this war. At this point it WWII, we are experiencing the Battle of Britain. It is far too early to tell what kind of war this will be, but there are few signs of turning into a frozen conflict. Russian casualties from the last three months are much higher than they were in the first six months of the war. Even going solely by visually confirmed losses. Russia is losing a handful of tanks daily. That's not a forever war. That's a hot war.

The cost benefit of defending against an attack is not the drone vs. Anti air missle, but the drone vs. Cost of it's target.

"The United States doesn't lose wars, it loses interest." Very well said.

“They’re about to find out why America has no universal healthcare” may just be the hardest line I’ve ever heard.

One of the issues with "Frozen conflicts" and why the US doesn't have a stomach for them is based on proximity. All the "frozen conflicts" you mentioned vis-a-vis Russia are on Russia's borders. As such, there is a higher sense of urgency from the Russian government and it the people that agree with it. ie. Russia is, or can be perceived to be by the state, as under direct and immediate threat (hence to the "NATO expansion" casus belli for the "Special military operation".) Whereas you can't really sell that with the recent US' wars in places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, or more clandestine US ops in the global south... Closest in parallel the US maybe had to this historically was Cuba in 1962 or Mexico with the Zimmerman telegram in 1917... Both of which put the US on edge in similar to fashion to how Russia is acting today.

I think a lot of people are misinterpreting the “The United States doesn’t lose wars, it loses interest.” Quote. I think it’s a good description of HOW the U.S. loses wars, because as a superpower the nation isn’t likely to flat out lose in a traditional way, it’s more likely that the costs outweigh the benefits of winning a conflict. If caring about civilian casualties, financial cost, and manpower cost were not a factor the United States would probably have rolled through to its military goals in every conflict since WWII. But that didn’t happen because many of those wars had an end goal that wouldn’t justify a full mobilization. You win a war against a superpower by making it too expensive.

"They're about to find out why America has no universal healthcare" & "The US... doesn't lose wars, it loses interest" As an American, those lines hit right in the hard truths.

Shirvan, I would invite you to critically examine continuing your support for Masterworks. There might be huge lawsuits coming up relating to RU-vidrs promoting financial investments and you don't wanna get entangled into that

does this man wake up in the morning and come up with the best quotes I ever hear in my life cause I am just amazed at the quality and content of the video every time thank you for everything!

That opening line about universal health really caught me off guard 😂💀 I wasn't expecting comedy on this channel

Rule of thumb: If Russia says they are building something world-beating, they are not.

It has only been a year and everyone is calling it "forever war". Well most wars go about 4-5 years, it is just that modern attention spans now are akin to that of a goldfish.

To anyone who is a fan of Caspian Report or Geopolitics in general I would recommend a documentary series by the BBC called Holidays in the Danger Zone: Places That Don't Exist. It was made in 2005 and they visit all the places that Shirvan mentions. Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabach, South Ossetia & Abkhazia.

"In practical terms, the new [centralized database] system will allow Russia to raise an army of fighting-age poor people, minorities, criminals, political dissidents, and disenfranchised communities." It seems to me that these are exactly the people you don't want running your army. Not if you intend for your existing government to last very long.

The no universal health care part totally got me lol

It's funny how advertising works, because from repeatedly seeing the Masterworks ad I absolutely hate it.

02:00 Gasprices in Europa are already back to normal (or got even lower) to prewar Prices. 07:00 Iranian Drones are not shot down by expensive missles. Ukraine says the, use Handweapons or they also Airdefence guns like German Gepard is usefull (Gepard uses only twelve bullets 35 mm for one target attack.). The Iranian drone is slow enough for guns.

Rather disappointed you didn't mention that Ukraine is now mainly using systems like the German Gepard SPAAG system as well as teams of trucks with AA guns fitted on back them to take out the slow moving Iranian drones now a days. The Gepards are perfect for taking these things out as opposed to the missile systems mentioned.

I think you forgot to mention that whilst the US is the one country that's helping Ukraine the most, there's also UK, France, Germany, Poland, Canada, Australia, Sweden, Finland, Israel, Turkey, even Japan and many other countries are all helping Ukraine one way or another, from military equipment to shoes, vests, financial aid, etc. There are even companies like Amazon and many other helping with financing and logistics. That´s why Ukrainian soldiers are all well equipped and fed.

Such good content! Thank you

Your channel is very informative and well done. Thank you!

I am not sure you are completely correct about the drones cost analysis. I have seen Ukraine use small crews using AA technical trucks. Using simple radar, mobility and numbers, to counter small drone strikes. I am sure its not enough to cover all strikes, but it is already widely used, and is expanding. So now the cost is looking more like the price of .50 or 20mm ammunition to take down shaheed drones. Thank you for the video Shirvan.

"Why the U.S. has no universal healthcare" . As an American, that hit hard

“They are about to find out why American has no universal healthcare” That one got me. 😂

Its weird to live in Russia, being well informed and discover some crazy facts from Caspian Report 😂

Excellent video! You should have 6 million subscribers. Wonderful narration, graphics and images.

One main issue there is with the idea of this war turning into a forever war is that of how high intensity the conflict currently is. At it's current rate losses on both sides could easily surpass a million in just a few years. And as of right now it seems to be only getting more intense meaning it's very possible that a combined total of a million casualties could be reached before next year. By then the shear amount of losses for such little gain will be very hard to hide from the public and could start to see more people turning against the war.

A very good report/analysis, thx a lot👍

Thank you. Well done as always.

Interesting you showed T14s, and T15, because Russia is pulling put T55s and BTR-50s and BMP-1s from storage.

You do now there’s more than 3 countries involved in this conflict right? It’s not just Russia, Iran and the US? For one thing Ukraine had a rather large role to play. For another there’s a lot of European countries offering considerable assistance to Ukraine. The likes of Poland and Estonia might even send personnel in the right circumstances

Blue chip art was my nickname in high school. My return was inevitable.

Great informative video, thanks!

Shahed drones don't have to be shot down by NASAMS or S-300. They can be shot down from anything, starting from WWII anti-aircraft guns to AK-47. And this is also the reason why there are 30+ German Gepard systems in Ukraine, which Shirvan failed to mention.

"The United States, the lone superpower doesn't lose wars, it loses interest" True statement

The universal health care joke made my day 😆

"they're about to find out why America doesn't have universal health care" that was chilling

There is a joke from the GDR (old east Germany) and it goes like this teacher: what is a capitalist? student: a capitalist likes money, so he keeps his money locked up. teacher: very good. now what is a communist? student: a communist likes his people, so he keeps his people- teacher: that's enough! Russia might not be communist any more, but they sure "like" their people

7:08 You mentioned that it costs Ukraine up to 7X the cost of an Iranian Drone but this is the wrong metric. It isn't the value of the attacking UAV that matters to the defender, it is the value of the assets protected. No army compares the price of the enemy’s bullets to the cost of their body armor.

A+ content as usual! Thank you for the effort you and your team put in.

It'd be awfully hard to fund a forever war without the Power of Siberia pipeline or key railbridges on the Resht-Astara rail line. It'd be a damn shame if something happened to them.

"They're about to find out why America has no Universal Healthcare" Shirvan, you mad lad, you actually managed to sneak the meme in this. Beautifully executed

The editing is great. What is the name of the editing software? The animation and stuff looks very good.

This isnt WW2... sheer numbers don't mean what they used to mean. Throwing 500k under equipped and untrained conscripts into battle only means more bodies. Not necessarily significant gains

Yeah but let's not forget that the US aren't the only country supporting Ukraine. The western alliance that supports them dwarfs Russia both economically and militarily and while I certainly agree that shooting Shahed drones with high-tech missiles isn't a great long term solution, it's a solution that this alliance could theoretically afford. Also, even if Russia can mobilize a lot more troops, it still needs to supply them and that might be tough given the lack of equipment it already suffers from in certain field. Add to that that these conscripts have proven completly useless aside from performing the most bascic kind of operations. They can barely hold a trench, they certainly aren't able to storm a city. This means even if Russia can inflict heavy losses on the Ukrainian and is unlikely to suffer a devastating defeat, I don't see how it can win the war. At most, it can hold the gains it already had, but even with Belarus joining the conflict I can't imagine Russia managing to take Kiev. And so at some point, Russia will have to call it quits, because even if it can afford to continue the war, it still costs it a lot. As long as they understand that neither Ukraine nor its ally will give up, they will have to retreat even if they could have continued.

Witticism aside, the military budget, vast as it is, is only 3.4% of GDP. Healthcare is 18.3% of GDP. For comparison, healthcare is 11.1% of French GPD. The US could double the military budget and still fund universal healthcare if it wanted to. If.

*No counter offensive for several months* Caspian Report: "Ukrainian war is turning into a forever war" 😂😂😂

1:25 "They're about to find out why America has no universal healthcare"🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣😂😂😂😂 I'm dead bro 😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

"The United States doesn't lose wars, it loses interest." Excellent quote and analysis! Thanks for sharing!

whoever is the attacker in a forever war always seems to lose. At least in every forever war I can think of

This is so good I will watch it again.

Excellent and very enjoyable as always.

"US doesn't lose wars, it lose interest" Thats a way to sugarcoat "Defeat"

The statement that we use C-300, NASAMS, or other expensive weapons to shoot Shahed is wrong. Maybe it is used but in very rear cases. The main weapons against Shahed are machine guns and Gepards.

Let me push back on some of the claims you made Shirvan, for the sake of broadening the discourse and offering alternatives or added information to your video: 1) On the Digital ID project that Russia is supposedly working on for 2024/2025: Who is to say this is something that will be successful, or implemented quickly enough--if at all? Russia is not like China, they do not have a centralized government with an Iron Fist like China's CCP top-down capitalist authoritarianism. IF Russia succeeds in creating this, it will run into issues that A) already one to two years away, which already is straining their economy and war efforts given the current trajectory of the war. B) logistical issues of implementing ANY widespread new technology across a large country and bad logistical implementation by members as well as non receptive populace (which only becomes worse the longer the war continues). Finally C) The longer Russia suffers economically and the popularity for the war drops in Russia, due to its military blunders and continued rift growing in the Kremlin, even MORE dissent will be sowed across Russia--even the criminals and bandits that were at first eager to join the Wagner PMC, before realizing they are expendable cannon fodder. 2) On the point of USA "losing interest" before Russia does: You omitted the SECOND crucial player--and arguably more serious to this conflict, aside from the USA: that is being EUROPE. Yes, the USA is supplying heavy weaponry and billions in aid, that is true, and America is known to be unpredictable with its "promises" of "continued unwavering support". However, unlike any other conflict that had the USA as a key backer, the Ukraine-Russian war has the virtual entirety of WESTERN EUROPE/EU backing Ukraine as THEIR shield and investment for their sovereignty and safety, while Ukraine is in direct conflict. Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Germany, UK, etc. All of these countries unanimously agreed to take GDP hits in order to fund, manufacture for, and supply Ukraine with heavy weaponry and defensive technology too, THEY are not going to LOSE INTEREST as USA could/might--because Europe's interest is SECURITY and there is no security if Ukraine loses--especially not when they already invested so much and staked so much on Ukraine winning, to a historically unprecedented level. Hopefully those 2 points offered an objective rebuttal to those two claims made in the video, as I offered two counter-claims that is neither pro-Russian or pro-Ukrainian, but simply a fact of Russian logistical failure (as proven by this war) and the stake interest by EUROPE which is actively and economically invested in Ukraine JUST AS AMERICA, but unlike America, is also emotionally and future-thinking in their investment. Aside from that, another great video Shirvan. I hope you make more videos on Ukraine-Russia war, as it seems there is too little from you on it.

The cost benefit ratio of shooting down a cheap drone with an expensive missile should include the value of the target the drone is after. If a $30k drone is heading towards a $50 million hospital, then a $100k missile sounds reasonable. The real effect of cheap drones is to saturate and deplete an air defense. However, both sides can play that game.

Yeah, you could say that Shahed drones are less expensive than AA missiles. But maybe it's more realistic to compare the cost of a Shahed to the price of three or four bursts from a Gepard, which is what usually takes down lawnmowers. Maybe also compare to the cost of century-old water cooled Maxim guns, which I've also seen manned as AA defense against drones. Perhaps the SAM-3 would be better compared to the cost of a Su-25, a Ka-52 or a Kalibr missile.

Considering that very little negotiations have been held since the start I'd say that some one wants this war to go on till they're satisfied.

Its going to be interesting to be a full war economy in our modern day

We wore them out when they brandished the hammer and sickle. What makes them think the outcome will be any different now when we spend even more of our budget on military ordinance?

There is an important thing often missing in Air Defence price equation: not drone price alone BUT drone price AND the cost of a potentially destroyed target should be compared to Air Defence munition price. Not speaking about potentially injuring / dead because of a non-intercepted attack.

Wow! Informative...

I wish the war ends and Peace 🕊️ will prevail. Amen.

Dude, secret weapon, because they can communicate issues. That is some pretty low grow geopolitics. THEY ARE WORKING ON CENTRAL DATABASE TO TALK TO EACH OTHER. This is some pretty low brow analysis Caspian.

"In practical terms, the new[centralized database] system will allow Russia to raise an army of fighting-age poor people, minorities, criminals, political dissidents, and disenfranchised communities." Yeah and giving them weapons is a very smart idea. I mean you can send them to war but you need a better armed army behind their backs in case you know they you know decide to revolt or something. Its not just as simple as arming undesirebles and sending them to frontline. If you giving them weapons you need to make sure you have another better armed army behind them.

Russia is wrong to think they can outlast Ukraine. Firstly, their society is not in favour of or ready to die in large numbers for this cause. Conscripts from Russia to be sent in human wave attacks may have been tolerated (forcibly or otherwise) in the 40's, but not in the internet age. Secondly, if it looks like Ukraine will get overwhelmed they will be flooded with the best NATO hardware very quickly (as opposed to the current trickle).

War is about money because money means survival. This channel does a way better job at explaining underlying economic reasons for conflicts than all the emotional drama in the news, who point fingers and side with one side.

“The US doesn’t lose wars, it loses interest.” Damn that’s dark.

I'm a little skeptical of Russia's, for lack of a better term, "conscription score," system. Given how utterly corrupt the the Russian systems are, I expect a ton of bad data and pocketed contracts to plague it. Sure the idea seems effective on paper but the Russian system has shown itself time and again to be incappable of pulling it off.

"Russia is about to find out, why America has no universal healthcare" Wow, this had me laugh SO LOUD at work

Great job man

That doesn’t seem like the perfect system to avoid war fatigue. It sounds like the perfect way to get mutiny and insurgencies…

Bro Gas prices reached a lot higher than $5 dollars in California

Also it's not just a spend for the U.S. economy. Most of the systems they're sending or made in the United States, so it's money they're paying American companies which gets re-invested in the American economy.

I miss the old videos with well-researched analysis, this one just showed the $ aid and one likely incorrect suggestion that expensive anti aircraft missiles are the primary weapon against cheap drones

If Russia's Great Plan to win it's war of fascist conquest in Ukraine is based around manpower, I think they will find the cluster munitions has a way of dealing with most of those issues.

“They’re about to find out why America has no universal healthcare” had me dead lmaoo you ain’t lying.

I'm wondering where they gonna find so many people in a rapidly aging country with accelerating emigration

Nobody shoot the drones with NASAMS. We use Gepard for this.

That line about universal healthcare had me laughing for 30 seconds. Very well done!

That alleged system to automatically identify and conscript "undesirables"... will they actually stand and fight? Would they not turn their weapons against recruiters pretty damn quickly once it's made clear that the state sees them as disposable/expendable cannon fodder?

1:20 went way to hard for no reason 😂 😂😂

A few months later… News Outlets: “Whew glad that’s over, on to other things!”

I think in this conflict you shouldn't exclusively focus on US contribution since EU NATO partners spend a roughly equal amount

The fact that this war has not stopped before it even started (or without hindsight since at least summer 2022) is gravely disturbing to me... I don't remember where i first heard, but i always get reminded of this quote: "history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes"

70% of Shirvan's time goes into coming up with catchy quotes. ;)

Ok Shirvan needs to come out with a geopolitical rap album because he has BARS

Rule of thumb: If Russia says they are building something world-beating, they ACTUALLY ARE! Biggest myth: Most of the drones have been shot down by spasms and other cheap cannons mounted on trucks. Spaags are never cheap, “cheap” cannons are also never cheap, AA guns are never cheap, and trucks are also very expensive. Gepard is very expensive, one Gepard will set you back $1.8 million so talking about one $1.8 million ammo taking down a $20k Iranian drone. There was a simple balloon recently this year that flew up 65,000 feet high up the sky so a Iranian drone could easily make it up way higher. It was reported that Iranian drones have an altitude of between 200,000 and 500,000 feet up the sky. USA and Western Europe is struggling to afford what it spends so therefore in the long term Russia is winning. Slava Rosiyi!

Ukraine has not only used missiles against the Shahed drones, but a lot of anti aircraft guns as well. Especially the Gepard has been proven very effective against them, with 1-2 bursts of 3-4 rounds they can take down a drone. Their issue is of course a much shorter range compared to missiles. Rheinmetall is producing ammo again for them and even more interestingly the Skynex systems are already in Ukraine.

This analysis is more relevant than ever with the failure of the Ukranian counteroffensive, Western fatigue, reports the US & Germany want to pressure Ukraine into negotiating with Russia.

your are the best reporter without a bias...keep up the good work

Shivran: Russia is preparing a never seen before system of intelligent mass conscription and is building huge industrial capabilities to win the war through sheer perseverance. Reality: Russia is calling up tanks designed during ww2 (t-54/55s). But seriously. I doubt Russia has enough competence to do things like that at this point. Till now, everything they did so far war quite a shit show. I'm also doubtfull this will change. Yust look at their series of disasters around Vuhledar, and then keep in mind that the commander responsible for that was actually awarded for it. It is what is called a "Kakistocracy" aka. "the rule of the worst", since Putin values loyalty over actual performance.

You missed it on this. The new weapons and training will put Ukraine at huge advantage. Plus, sanctions are really biting now. Russia will not be sble to continue the war to 2025 at most. Likely end this year.😊

"A soldier without a gun is no soldier but a man." - argument for a monetary strategy

What is your source about the new "unnamed weapon", the social Credit system for military recrutement? You seem to be the only one reporting this so far.

Despite their increased production of certain weapons (like loitering munitions), we've yet to see russia manage to scale up production of essentials such as tanks and artillery shells anywhere close to what they need. Have you noticed they pulled T-54s out of storage recently? Conversely, NATO militaries have still significant stockpiles of game changers such as the ATACMS and HARM which are only suspended to diplomatic decision at the moment, and scaling up of arms production capacity is already in progress in some NATO countries. Ukraine itself has also become very apt at manufacturing and using loitering munitions using hardware easily available from across the EU border, the strike on the railway junction in Crimea a few days back used one of them. So, while the war can be prolonged, I highly doubt russia will be able to mount large multi-front offensives anywhere near what they did a year ago. There is no way they would get anywhere near Kyiv again, when it takes them months, tens of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of armoured vehicles to capture small ruined villages. I'm more worried about the political will to expedite this process than the end result, any delaying costs lives and causes untold suffering.

Finally non propaganda report from the channel resubbing

3:10 I like how you decided to use footage of the totally unrelated town of Epecuen in Argentina, lmao