Wagner Group Embraer EMB-135BJ RA 02795 

More info by Denys that strongly supports a missile strike: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-8H2FGud37RQ.html

We know it wasn't an accident. I'm surprised anyone was willing to pilot an airplane with him on it, and anyone else was willing to be on board.

Worth noting that ADSB data was lost at FL280, not when the aircraft impacted the ground. Circuits were severed while flying.

Putin promised Prigozhin that he won’t be prosecuted, and he kept his word.

When I first heard the news, my immediate reaction was “I want to hear Blancolirio’s analysis on it”. So as always, thank you!

Accidentally flew through the path of a missile. Never guessed that was going to happen.

That white "cloud" at 4:50 reminded me of the same kind of cloud when they shot down the Chinese balloon.

It was only a matter of time but I thought he would have fallen from a 6th storey window like so many others.

Juan, I love how as an American you kept a straight face when you said "and we're never going to get the straight story as this happened over in Russia" Greetings from Australia

The puff of white and grey smoke is a signature of a missile proximity detonation. That jet was shot down by a sophisticated surface to air missile.

What a truly unlucky turn of events. Could have happened to anyone. Anyone flying over Russian airspace who also happened to carry a passenger that had acted against the Russian head of state, that is.

It was not a missile It was not a bomb It was not a crash It was a “special military landing”

I worked on the Legacy 600 model several years ago. They don't just fall out of the sky in that fashion. There is absolutely zero forward component in that video. While extremely blurry, it looks like most of the empennage is missing which would explain the freefall. That aircraft either took a missle in the aft section or some type of explosive went off in either the aft baggage or in the hell hole.

In various screenshots you can see the right wing and most of the empennage is missing from the fuselage

"Truth is the first casualty of war..." great quote.

Thank you Juan. Your assessments are always clear clear and informative and easy for the layperson to understand.

The only reason this Legacy jet crashed is because Yevgeny Prigozhin couldn’t fit out its window. In all seriousness though, my heart goes out for its crew.

Wing missing, engine and tail gone. Missile.

Just because his Prigozhin's name was on the passenger manifest doesn't necessarily mean he was actually on board. I can think of good reasons he'd like everyone to believe he was.

Well, like so many other Russian Big Wigs, Prigozhin died from a great fall…. Much higher than the usual apartment window

Professional pilot here: Experience shows that it is very difficult to open a window of a jet aircraft inflight, even harder for a person to fall out of it. However, this problem can be solved when the window itself, with the airframe attached to it, falls out of the sky - with the unlucky person on board…

Someone showed some pictures of the tail section separated from the main impact and a section of wing consistent with SAM damage. I knew it was coming, just didn't know when. What he was doing still in Russia is baffling.

RIP Prigozhin, you were an excellent adversary, very entertaining

I saw a photo that seemed to show shrapnel holes in a partly intact piece of the aircraft.

I was surprised a few weeks back to see footage of him disembarking a Robinson 44 helicopter. He sure was confident enough to fly anything!

Arse over teakettle is a favorite expression of my dad's.

@2:57 - "Ass over teakettle." Now THERE is a term I have not heard in a while. Mum used to say that all the time. Good memories.

Photographs of the wreckage *clearly* show the wreck displays perforations that can more or less only be from the shrapnel created by the detonation of a missile, they're very distinctive and pepper at least one side of the aircraft

As far as unsolved mysteries of Russians falling out of windows goes, I say Prigozhin wins the world record for highest altitude. 😂

We all knew this was coming, surprised it took so long. Unless Prigozhin's not actually dead....

Thank you very much for picking this up - and for the recommendation to Denys!

We could coin a new phrase for this incident being a ‘crash of convenience’ for a certain leader

The only thing we know for sure is that Girkin didn't pull the trigger this time. So is this the end of Wagner now? As Mr Churchill said of Russia "It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma".

There’s another angle of the crash that shows the legacy in what appears to be missing it’s left wing and at least both horizontal stabilizers

Some photos of the wreckage show what looks like shrapnel dents and perforations on the fuselage which suggests a missile strike. Actually, that bigger cloud of smoke looks very much like a missile blast.

That's what happens when your weight and balance is radically altered by a missile/bomb.

Shout out to the Brazilian Embraer Legacy 600 - Goto private jet choice for private military leaders!

Dang, he didn't get pushed out of building, he got BLOWN UP!!

I saw another video with a wing missing on its way down. Looking at the trail of white smoke just after the incident in the air, looks like a missile attack.

The fact that his name was on the manifest doesn't necessarily mean he was on the aircraft, just that someone wants us to think so. I think authorities were a little to forthright with this information for me to believe it without some skepticism. Wouldn't surprise me if he was killed in a basement somewhere and his body dissolved in acid and that his name was put on the manifest as a cover.

Thanks he was on the passenger log some say he was absent.

I’ve been a serious amateur photographer since 1971. How come I never seem to point my camera into the sky and catch an initial explosion on an aircraft carrying an infamous person? I am very sorry for the loss of the 3 crew members. Another war crime, I’m sure.

Really enjoy your channel. Thank you for your hard work in providing excellent factual content.

Just saw another camera shot of it falling (amazing how many people caught it from the ground - they must have heard an explosion which prompted them to look up). The plane is clearly missing a wing - appears to be the port side wing. Also apparently a wing was found two miles away from the wreckage.

Juan, at the point where you paused the video; it appears the aircraft is falling tail first at that point. “Tumbling” is about all you can say for how it came out of the sky.

"The higher you go the further you have to fall", quite literally this time as it would seem

I am still unconvinced that Prigozhin would be so stupid as to put both himself and his XO on the same aircraft... and then put both their names on the passenger manifest. I'll believe it when I see the bodies.

Thanks for adding your experience to the list of people questioning this crash.

The way it was falling flat like it was, it seems the horizontal tail was gone, And most of the wing is gone. If the tail was intact, it would have probably been nose down like a missile. It was a fuselage in a flat position. That kept it's speed down somewhat as evidenced by intact pieces like an engine, cockpit windows.

The later photos of the wreckage reveals the fuselage peppered with small impact holes indicative of a ground-to-air missile munition.

There are videos of the missile trails.

its missing a wing, plus the way it falls is indicative of a loss of wing the way it steeply dives down and then kinda flutters and then dives again.

Glad to see your take on this. You explained a lot looking at this from a normal accident view. Interesting to is that they identified him so quickly. Or is that a normal amount of time.

Here,in Brazil 🇧🇷, at 1965/66, dictator Castello Branco,was shoot down by a Brazilian Air force T33(SHOOTING STAR) much similar like this Embraer BJ....

That wasnt a plane crash. That was debris falling from a plane that blew up.

something to remember is that when a breakup or explosion at great distance and/or altitude occurs there is a delay of on the order of a couple seconds or more between when something wrong first can be seen and when the initial sounds from the explosion are heard by a ground observer. There is a formula for determining the distance from the observer if the exact time of the delay is known. The same thing as trying to determine the distance from a lightening discharge to an observer who compares the time of the visible flash to the resultant "thunder" (lightening discharges might occur over a longer time than an "instant" and can have great length causing the initial sound to come from more than one point of direction towards the observer and have some duration) I would think an out of control falling metal aircraft would make a great deal of aerodynamic noise different than normal flight noise more or less all the way from the precipitating incident crippling it to the ground impact

Looks like the “Donuts on a Rope” contrail like from a fast, fast missile. That’s a thing, isn’t it? Some intel guys could chime in here.

Thanks again, Juan. I'm an aviation writer and I appreciate your narrative approach to these incidents, refusing to engage in outrageous speculation before all the facts are in. We pilots are compulsive second guessers.

That dense cloud to the left looks a lot like the mushroom shape of an air-to-air detonation. No surprise. Just like MH 17.

Who’s surprised? Great video as always, thanks.

That is one high window to fall from.

I'm hearing from my contacts at the FSB that the final report for this "accident" has already been completed and was submitted over a month ago.

I did see a clip with a wing clearly absent--the left one, I believe. There apparently was another aircraft, in their envoy, also in the area--just landed from what I heard. An interesting one for sure. THANKS Juan!

to translate the lady filming, aside from cursing, she does say it was shot down.

Wow! Someone actually caught this crash with a camera! Wild!

Glad you bothered to report this incident, was hoping you would, always enjoy your clean, consis analysis of these events. As always, my hat's off to you Jaun. Keep up your excellent work !

You are right on top of these events, Thanks

that cone shaped puff of smoke is the classic signature of a continuous rod warhead of an air to air short range missile. Based on previous data I have seen and the fact that Russian MANPADS systems used exclusively blast fragmentation warheads I am fairly confident this plane was purposefully shot down with more than likely with a Vympel R-60 (NATO AA-8 "Aphid") Air to air missile launched from a Russian Air Force fighter. With this being so close to Moscow its is nearly impossible with this to be a shot from a foreign missile especially given the impact trajectory in the video.

I saw reports that the tail and engines (which are back by the tail) were found some miles away from where the fuselage and wings fell. Most likely an anti air missile that targeted the engines and blew the tail off (if not a bomb in the rear)

i think a section of a wing is missing, and the trail we see is not smoke, it's fuel from a ruptured tank.

That was shot out of the sky planes don’t just drop. It was at 21,000 feet. It should be going forward but it dropped.

The aircraft underwent last minute “repairs” which delayed the takeoff. I think it obvious that these repairs involved the figment of a new part. A very explosive part.

Dan Gryder will have it all sorted out for us on Sunday!

No way they would know this quick that there were 10 dead bodies. When a plane crashes like this, there are body parts everywhere. Plus they were burnt also, so it would take days to determine how many bodies there are. This plane was clearly brought down from how it was coming down. For the life of me I can't understand how the Wagner guy thought it would end-up any other way after he rebelled. He was a dead man walking the minute he made that decision.

Juan, Is that smoke trail against the blue sky at the beginning of the video typical of a missile or rocket attack on an aircraft? Here in Germany they showed slow motion zoomed in views which seem to show the tail and one wing missing.

The witness said it was missing a wing and after crash parts were still floating down.

Yeah, I’d be good to have that that flight if you were talking about between the 737 in the Embro AFB do that one in the future if you can

The puffs of white smoke are very similar to those made by certain types of proximity fuse when they fire. Of course there may be other things which create similar smoke clouds.

Thank you once again, Juan.

There were two Wagner jets in the air. RA-02748, a Legacy 650 was ahead this jet, RA-02795, a Legacy 600. Is it possible that Prigozhin was on the other Wagner jet?

First time I have seen a whole plane fall out of a window...

Best information from Juan once again. Great job

1:04, large white object above falling Embraer is not falling. Appears to be another aircraft. Embraer is missing one wing and tail plane. Jet noise doesn't'' sound as if rotating, so I'm thinking it's a shoot down.

I'd love to ear the Cee Eye Aye's alibi regarding their wherabouts during this crash.

That looks exactly like the Blue Angels 5 jet I saw in Niagara Falls back in ‘85. Opposing solo hit it and knocked the vertical stab off. Man, when that happens it’s just flat spin all the way down.

Honestly at this point i wouldn't call it an accident. I guess all Wagner's leaders falling out of the same window would be too obvious for the Russians

They have found parts of the aircraft a few km from the crash site. From what I saw the paint matches the vertical stab and another part that looked like one of the elevators. It remains to be seen if Prigozjin was actually on the aircraft.

It appears that another enemy of Putin has met with an unfortunate accident. Funny how that keeps happening.

There´s also a video which shows, that the aircraft was missing one wing

"Ass over tea kettle" one of my dad's favorite expression. First time I've heard it for decades -- thanks for the fond memories.

I think everyone in the world knew that was not an accident the moment word had gone out that the Wagner group leader was possibly on board and was in Russia

i usually get a catch in my throat watching your accident videos... but on this one i cant stop giggling!!!!

Considering it's owned by Wagner, this was OBVIOUSLY not an "accident". I guess it's safe to say that the leadership of Wagner has been "removed".

The tail plane is missing in that fall scenario, you can see it better on other videos - falling quite flat at first RIP

Hi. Thank you for what you do Brother. I have read alot of comments. This aircraft was more than likely shot down by a air to air proximity missle. What most people don't understand is that the missle was more than likely fired at a distance of 30 to 40 miles away. It could be 50 to 60 miles away depending on the missle that was used. The missle type doesn't acutely hit the aircraft but instead it explodes in the proximity of the targeted aircraft also the aircraft isnt taken down by a explosive warhead if you will, but its taken down by small shrapnel from the missle warhead exploding next to the aircraft. Covert operators have been know to use nuts and bolts and other commen materials in these types of missle to cover up thier handy work, but a tell tell sign of foul play is lots of holes throughout the fuselage of said aircraft, not saying it happen to this aircraft? But just saying? Take care. Hawk out!!

I was waiting to see what your assessment was on this. Thanks for the update!

Sometimes you just can't poison them, right Vlad?

Long time watcher, I rarely comment, just here to learn and observe. My Uncle retired from USAF about 20 years ago after a 25 years and we discussed this last night. That puff of the smoke in the sky is classic proximity detonation missle debri. While we will probably never know for sure, my uncle said without a doubt that is exactly what this is. He was a F16 instructor for years and knows what that stuff looks like. BTW he flew THUDS in Vietnam and never shot down, lucky guy.

I'm actually surprised it took this long. I thought he was going to "jump" to his death from some sort tall building / structure.

Hey Juan, would love a breakdown of the ferry flight Embraer with the Gol 737 in Brazil.