WAR is Stupid... Sometimes 

Randomly generating a date on which a no-hitter was thrown is easily +10 WAR.

WAR is definitely not an end all be all stat. But it’s such a good base for valuing the overall production of a player over a given sample size. Again, use it as a base stat before you look at other stats like OPS, FIP, OAA, etc.

I’m an old guy… Born the year the Giants moved to San Francisco from New York. Been trying to get a grip on all the new statistics coming my way, WAR, FIP, etc. I googled WAR, and was going to sit down and learn the equation… way over my head! Thanks to this channel it is less over my head. Definitely worth watching these videos more than once. Excellent content… Keep it coming, you are teaching an old dog new tricks! P. S. I still miss pitchers throwing complete games and 20 win seasons.

"I'm not an athlete, I'm a baseball player" John Kruk.

A baseball strategy RPG would be lit. "Damn, I'm low on resources so I have to start Ken Waldichuk..."

Describing WAR as "neurodivergent" is a new one

You put in more effort than any other baseball youtuber it seems. Much appreciated.

WAR is stupid, but not as stupid as not subscribing to Baseball’s Not Dead

A couple of things that hit the cutting room floor because I didn't want to make this a 30 minute video... I did touch on ultimate baserunning and ultimate zone rating, but the overall point was simply "we don't know enough about the calculations to really provide a critique." Fangraphs themselves says "you can't calculate these on your own because you need video data from Baseball Info Solutions." They also only allude to how they use that info to calculate them and don't get into too many specifics or formulas. I would really urge them to provide by game BsR and UZR data so we can look into that and verify it's legitimacy. I also left out an overview of how the one day calculations ended up. Figured if you wanted to dig into that you could look at the spreadsheet. Finally, to answer a question... How much would my recommendations change fWAR? Actually not an incredible amount, especially for most players that aren't a DH. But WAR is the type of stat that should be constantly re-evaluated and if there's a way to improve it and make it more accurate, even if it's minor, it should be looked into.

This is a really great video that does a wonderful job of explaining WAR. Also, I immediately perked up when I heard the date. You randomly picked my favorite day of baseball, in which my favorite team's pitcher threw a no-hitter on my 11th birthday.

16:49 I've had this same thought before. I've actually done work on this to try to create my own FIP stat that uses rate percentages (and possibility regresses data for a normalized HR/FB or HR/contact rate) and in every instance I've come up with a model that is not really significantly better than FIP. The examples you described are valid, but to be fair they're very extreme and don't really happen with any type of regularity. They're more of a statistical anomaly rather than something that actually impacts the data. If you gave these 3 pitchers a significant sample size, example 1 would have an awful FIP, 2 would be mediocre, and 3 would be very good, assuming these games are indicative of their actual contact quality/contact rates. Is FIP perfect? No, and it's for the reasons you explained. FIP is derived from the formula for a simple linear regression model. Any time you build a linear regression model you are accepting a certain level of statistical error in order to develop a model that is more stable or predictive than raw data. This can be *very* tricky for situations such as how it's frequently used in baseball. A model such as FIP, where you're predicting how a player "should have" performed rather than how he actually performed always creates significant statistical error. If the model was perfect, the players FIP would always equal his ERA that season. If the model is bad, his FIP would be wildly different than his ERA. Neither of those are useful, so models such as FIP come in a midway point, with a significant statistical error that is acceptable because the predicted result is more predictive than the player's actual ERA. FIP, while being extremely simple, is actually pretty effective at this. Stats like Statcast's xwOBA are neither more predictive than the actual results or correlate too strongly with the actual results, and therefore are absolute garbage junk stats that should never ever be taken seriously under any circumstances (I am an extreme xwOBA hater and will take every opportunity possible to express this. It's significantly less predictive than wRC+, for example). In 2014 I was honestly very on the fence about advanced baseball statistics. After taking some stats classes in college, I realized that nearly every SABER stat is built on fairly simple regression models, and is actually pretty entry level stuff. That's not to question their validity, I honestly think anything more advanced than what we have currently would not be particularly more useful and honestly might be too complex to actually give valid results. The noise-to-signal ratio in baseball events (ie: unpredictability) is way too high for anything beyond simple linear regression to be actually useful. I do agree that the way baserunning runs is calculated is pretty confusing. That said, even the most extreme examples rarely are worth more than +/-10runs (a little less than +/-1WAR in a typical season. My guess is that it's just considered inconsequential enough to not have any time devoted to valuing it more accurately. For most players, stolen base success rate is a near wash in terms of value, as GIDP and taking extra bases on hits are more valuable. On positional adjustments: I think this is a perception issue for many people. Fangraphs really mislabels this, characterizing it as more of a defensive thing, when it's really more of an offensive thing. First baseman need to hit more than shortstops to be good at their position. I do agree that those constants need to be updated, though it would probably have an inconsequential effect on the final number. Same with league adjustments. Prior to the universal DH, the offensive bar to clear in the AL was much higher than in the NL, since in the NL you could still get fairly regular playing time just by virtue of being a better hitter than the pitcher. SP vs. RP adjustment is definitely becoming antiquated. It's true that an out is an out, but the SP vs. RP adjustment is based on oldschool pitcher management styles where relievers weren't as good as they are today and also weren't expected to cover as many innings as they are today. Openers weren't a regularly used thing, so they kinda exist in a blindspot of this calculation. I expect this will eventually be addressed as starters continue to pitch less and less innings and the difference in quality on a per-inning basis between starters and relievers decreases. FWIW I'm also like 95% sure that leverage is included in reliever WAR

The argument against WAR seems to basically be "I watch Baseball so I know Baseball better than Math does so stop telling me my opinion isn't correct" (sic). WAR is imperfect and there are parts of the calculation that definitely need improving but as a general indicator, it's fine.

this is the best video ive ever seen on WAR as a topic, another topic I think that would be worth covering that's in the same vein is OPS vs wRC+

Great video. Hope this brings some attention to FG and BBref because it makes you wonder how often they peer review their own methods

The aL having about 10% more WAR actually makes sense in a twisted way. NL had pitchers (notoriously bad hitters) as 1/9 of the batting order and therefore the NL would be skewed by only having to face effectively 8/9 real batters vs the AL which- with a DH- was having to face 9/9 batters

Great video, but I have to ask if your calculation for the run values / linear weights for the single day you calculated is leaving out something that causes the large difference from FanGraph’s 2022 run values. It may be due to FanGraphs adding the difference of making an out in any situation. To use your example of Jose Oquendo, you calculated the difference of a runner on first from a runner on first and second both with 1 out, which was .6666 - .4194, or .2472. But the true value of his single also includes not making an out. So I believe the calculation FanGraphs uses also adds in the difference between a runner on first with 1 out and a runner on first with 2 outs. In your example, that would be .4194 - .2206, or .1988. Adding the .1988 to the previously calculated value of .2472 gives you .4460.

Great video. WAR is better for comparing people from similar positions than people from different positions. The more alike the positions and roles those players play, the better WAR is for comparison. No stat is perfect, but stats are also what make baseball such a unique sport, IMO. Nerds and jocks coming together for the love of the game, love to see it. Both have a place.

Really cool to learn about these stats in depth. Also, your solution of changing rates with FIP is awesome. It's basically FIP+, which seems useful to me, although I'm sure it has its own issues.

Being someone who’s just got back into baseball this past year. Watching your videos and learning about these stats I never knew anything about. It’s the main thing that keeps me watching outside of just genuine content

Awesome video, really informative and well edited, making a very complex topic sound simple, most underrated channel on baseball YT right now and it's not even close!

I'm a huge sabermetrics guy and I love war, but I do agree it can be dumb sometimes

This was a really impressive explanation and analysis of WAR.

Great work on the video. The thing that frustrates me the most about the topic is that most people who hate WAR, never come up with a solution. It feels like they try to poke holes in WAR, instead of finding a way to get us a better stat that does what WAR tries to accomplish. My sneaking suspicion is that these people are more like the commenters you shared who want to attack analytics, because math is scary, and they still think RBI mean something. If anything, your issues with WAR are that it is not even more advanced mathematically, which is the opposite of some of these people.

I love so many of the points you make here especially about how insane it is that the defensive positional adjustments don't change year to year even tho the amount of balls in play is falling every year. However at 14:38 , I don't agree with your point that it doesn't make sense that AL players get inherently more WAR for similar play, but you failed to consider that those AL hitters in that era were only being compensated for the batting runs they were losing by playing in the better hitting league caused by the DH. Without the DH they would get that WAR back in hitting value

I'm an engineer and sometimes what seems to be an arbitrary factor is well thought out because it works.

Really good video! By chance have you read Bill James’ critique of WAR? It was a fairly controversial essay during the Judge-Altuve MVP race and brings up some interesting points that I think are complimentary to the points you’ve made here.

As someone who's just been getting back into baseball more seriously, this video sums up both what's exciting and what's deeply frustrating about these advanced stats. I love how powerful and elegant WAR, FIP, and the rest can be! It's also very counter-intuitive and frustrating to trust a stat that few people even know how to calculate and that values a dropped third strike more than a strikeout (as much of a fringe case as that may be!) And, of course, I don't think it helps that advanced stats have helped usher in an era of baseball that many/most fans think is less aesthetically pleasing than baseball in the past.

Videos like this are why I love this channel. Glad you took the effort to tackle this all from scratch in Excel, really adds some weight to your arguments.

Dang, you did a heck of a lot of work with all that data entry and calculating. Nice work!

Awesome video! Definitely a topic I've contemplated covering myself, kudos to you for putting in all the effort to go through the number crunching, that's a daunting amount of work. If you don't mind me asking, do you have a degree in math or data analysis? I like to do similar analysis and I have a degree in astrophysics, just curious!

Do you think Wins Above Average is better than Wins Above Replacement, when comparing top tier players?

WAA is a better stat but WAR is used because it's easier to say. It's just WAA with a speculative value plucked out of thin air, and it makes it more confusing what's going on. Just rename it to Wins Above Mean and then you can say WAM, easy.

WAR is a tool. If you know how to use it, it has much more value than if you don't, and like all tools, it has a specific purpose. Using it in the wrong place or for the wrong job will lead to less than optimal results. Personally, I have a lot of issues with WAR (some are outlined well in this breakdow), but it still has value when in the right context.

I agree about the limits of WAR as a stat, because while measuring value through the prism of "runs" is correct, it has the problem of appearing simpler than it actually is. Things like outfielder DRS being regressed before 1950 (Look at Tris Speaker and Joe Dimaggio) and Baserunning runs being regressed before 1930 (Max Carey and Sam Rice), are not visible at first glance makes the figures seem ridiculous. Tom Thress's Win-Loss records are a good resource to consider in addition when evaluating a player with numbers besides WAR, but the simple appearance of WAR makes it seem superior to other choices. Even an element like OPS+ has a big problem when you see that is doesn't account for handedness in park factor, so someone like Joe Dimaggio is considered by OPS+ to have benefitted from playing in Yankee Stadium, while Hank Greenberg and Wade Boggs would be players who get extra credit in OPS+ despite their big home/road splits. It also can't consider how a player like Jimmy Wynn would have to adopt his style to the park and be hurt despite having an apparent boost from home. Context and other sabermetric stats like "Clutch" are hidden under the Advanced Stats header on Baseball Reference, and that WAR by itself doesn't tell much about a player without context, such as the perception of their abilities when they played even if they were underrated or overrated for certain reasons.

I love that baseball attracts stat nerds. I bet most hard-core baseball fans learned to use excel because they wanted to figure something out about baseball that they didn't understand or know the answer to.

It was nice of Lightning Fast VCR Repair to let you record there.

With the latest statcast data, could we factor balls in play into pitcher WAR calculations? Given a certain exit velocity (and battled angle?) you could work out the probability of an out/1B/2B/etc. and then we can make use of the run expectancy matrix again.

Great video. While we shouldn't use WAR to the decimal point when evaluating players, that doesn't mean we shouldn't make adjustments to the metric in order to make it more accurate to what's happening on the field.

A very well put-together video, making it clearer what WAR id doing (and not doing) behind the scenes. An interesting companion might be an intermediate-level discussion of the differences between the major versions of WAR and why the differences do/don't make sense.

This was a great watch. I cant imagine how much time you put into this. Unbelievable

Interesting video, I had no idea how WAR is calculated.

As a Warhammer fan.. may the God Emperor of Mankind smile on this channel from atop his golden throne

This is actually a very helpful guide to understanding WAR

So if Replacement Level is really as arbitrary as picking 1,000 because why not, why doesn't everyone just use WAA (Wins Above Average)? What's the point of having any replacement adjustment at all?

Thank you for being the one person who actually cares enough to try and understand the true inner workings of WAR calculation. I know people say stuff like “WAR isn’t perfect”, but I can’t help but think that after seeing how it is calculated, that wOBA (and xwOBA) are as close as you can get to perfection in determining hitter value. But it did always frustrate me that they use FIP for WAR which is literally designed to ignore like half of baseball. And now that I’m seeing more about the details of WAR, I’m pretty frustrated by the use of static numbers without an explanation. Its so lazy compared to all the other things it tries so hard to get exactly right.

what a fantastic video! I now have a deeper understanding of multiple stats and see their pros and cons. What a script yall put together, truly excellent work

I would have a lot more appreciation for the WAR calculations if they were to abandon defense in the calculations all together. Just make defense a separate statistic. Situation, ballpark, weather, and other defenders on your team have such a huge impact on fielding that adding defensive WAR really skews the total for some players.

Great analysis thanks for taking the time

20:10 imo I think starters are more ranked as more valuable since they eat up more innings, hence why the constant is much higher. Just a baseless thought tho that isn't based on any numbers except for logic so Idk

I go cross eyed whenever someone begins explaining WAR

Edit: Finished the whole thing, I think you did a really good job of explaining the faults of some of the advanced metrics, this is a perfect way to critique it rather than saying it's a bunch of nerds. I can't believe you ran all of that through Excel though, I've normally done most of my own data dives with Python, but I'm seriously impressed at the effort you put into this video. It's nice to see a more math heavy video on this subject, and hopefully this stops most of the haters. I'm only 2 minutes in, so you may spell out all of this, but man, I cannot stand the people who just downplay stats. I don't get the war (pun intended) on people who use stats to try and gain a better understanding. It happens in all sports, and for some reason all these ex-players just completely discount it. I don't know if it's just from lack of knowledge, or the idea that nerds are encroaching on their territory. I played baseball through high school, went on to play club baseball at my college (I was never good enough for real college ball) and have coached 10-14 year olds for free because I enjoy it so much. I also played rec basketball and football in college and was pretty good there too, at least in the top half of those leagues in just pure athleticism. That's not to say I'm some athletic savant, but I'm probably more athletic than most who didn't play real college sports. On the other hand, I've been labeled academically gifted my whole life too, I majored in physics and got a minor in computer science. I absolutely love using numbers to deal with sports, and in my time playing on different teams, I've only had generally receptive attitudes towards using metrics to look differently at sports. I've made friends on those teams who loved hearing about the coolest new metric I found on the internet and how it applies to different sports. All that to say, I've seen the hatred for using numbers in every major American sport, I love the Pat McAfee show, but he clowns on people who use numbers to try and get an advantage, the same with Inside the NBA and Charles Barkley. I know it happens in baseball too just judging by those comments. I really do think the best way to do it would be to combine knowledge from both, and it seems like the old school people don't want anything to do with any sort of numbers in their game, and it really seems to come down to insecurity from not knowing how numbers work and refusing to think that some "nerds" know better than them about a game they played, which honestly is really sad to me. Especially since I hold both Pat McAfee and Charles Barkley in such high regard.

Great video! I HATE the positional adjustment. When you walk up to the plate, you are Batter.

I love the its always sunny reference

I'm a truck driver and I love listening to your videos when I drive. Funny thumbnail by the way.

Love this video. Thanks for the in depth analysis.

I don't pretend to know the details of WAR calculations, so maybe there's something that I'm missing, but it seems to me that eliminating the difference in pitcher replacement level between starters and relievers without any other change would ignore the real value to a team that comes from a pitcher eating more innings. But having said that, there's no question that determining that adjustment purely by whether or not the pitcher started the game is dumb. It should be some sort of adjustment made entirely on the basis of the number of innings pitched. (In addition to solving the 1 inning starter problem you mentioned in the video, that could also capture the fact that a starter who routinely pitches 7-9 innings is a lot more valuable to a team than one who pitches a solid 5 innings almost every time but can't be trusted to go longer.) Of course, that still isn't really complete - an inning in which you have to face the top of the order, or the heart of the order, is more valuable than an inning against the bottom of the order. Over the long haul that will probably even out for starters, but not necessarily for relievers. Also, it seems like there ought to be some sort of adjustment for save situations. Of course, you can keep adding things like this forever and at some point the improvement in the stat gets to be small compared to the increased difficulty in calculating it, but at least the number of innings pitched seems like it's important enough that it needs to be included somehow.

Disrespecting war is heresy

This is my favorite intro of all sports related channel

This gave me memories of sitting in pre-calculus in 12th grade, not having any idea what was going on.

WAR is a convenient stat we can use to kinda understand the worth of a player. I like stuff like ERA+, WRC+ OAA individually tho cause it’s easier for my brain to understand 😂

Someone needs to get FBI to protect this man from r/baseball

Wait the change for FIP to percentage base calculation is a great change.

Really great video man, keep it up

Jesus christ! I never thought I'd ever feel nerdier than when my sister walked in on me and a friend passionately debating who was more influential between Mozart and Shakespeare but I just watched a 20+ minute video about calculations being suboptimal. In all seriousness tho, great video. For such a ubiquitous stat for baseball discourse most people don't understand the calculations which often leads to somewhat blind faith or blind distrust of numbers.

these are all cool issues to point out with the stat and this is the exact kind of thing that I love to look at. The criticism of relief pitching WAR is spot on, I don't understand why it matters if the game was started by said pitcher or not. MLB teams pay relievers based on what their WAR would be if not for this silly adjustment, so I think that speaks for itself. Your next criticism (aka my super strong opinion on a niche subject that no one cares about) could be about steamer projections training on selected samples and that leading to disasters like having 39 separate catchers projected for a wRC+>100 in 2023.

Bro did you just drop an accurate Salamanders ref? This channel is the coolest uncool thing that ever existed.

One of my biggest frustrations with WAR is that there are multiple ways to calculate it. Imagine if you had to talk about ERA or batting average and then specify whose ERA or AVG formula you were using. It's useful as a starting-off point or a "quick glance" but using it as a primary statistic is ludicrous to me.

Ready for this video to make a baseball traditionalist

Thank you for not being another channel like Italkstudios or baseball doesn’t exist. You talk about things that matter and aren’t just a 20 minute video overblowing any controversy that happens or has happens. Thank you. I like your videos

do you know where i could find the starting pitchers metric correlation list, i can find a short list but it doesnt show the full list that you have

This is the best defense of WAR I've been presented with, but it still made me hate it more. Great video nonetheless.

You could explain WAR to me 100 times and I’ll never fully understand it lol

I believe that FanGraphs is accounting for the varying value of steals by building it into the variations in caught stealing, but it's not totally clear. I suppose a hypothetical player who never gets caught might be inaccurately assessed by this, but such players don't really exist except among players who don't attempt steals often in the first place. That said, it's not really explained all that well.

Man have a like, you deserve it. Good God I went cross eyed trying to keep up. You made my old stats professor happy I'm sure!

This is such a great video. It’s annoying that most people who don’t like WAR are the “math is for nerds” group which nobody should take seriously. But legit breakdowns like this actually make a point

This is a pretty good analysis. One addition point that always bothered me with WAR is strikeout for hitters not being used in the calculation. I personally believe strikeout by hitters should bring WAR down as it is a waste of out, especially if runners were on with less than two outs. I saw runners getting credit for reaching extra bases, yet why not penalize hitters who K out cos they were swinging for the fense and wasted out to move runners to more ideal scoring positions to help the team score...

Really great analysis. As someone that had considered himself a believer in WAR, I'm surprised to find out that the replacement player isn't something that is collectively defined one year to the next. This seems like an inherent problem to the statistic that adds a layer of abstraction when one isn't necessarily needed, right? Like, why go through all of this trouble to compare an individual against a "replacement player" when league wide averages can just be used? Put another way, wouldn't comparing varying averages across positions and between positions, and looking at how many standard deviations away from the pack the player is be more useful than trying to create/hypothesize out how well the "average" AAA replacement player would perform? There just doesn't seem to be any need to compare how well, say, a first baseman hits compared to someone brought up, when you could just compare said first baseman against the average for all hitters who were playing first base? Using this metric would also account for changes across time in how the game is being played, or what the expectations are for a given position. Sorry for the wall of text. Great vid. Subscribed.

The data is there (thanks to statcast) to generate a much more accurate number based on a lot of what you were talking about. If hitters get runs based on what a single is worth in a certain situation, pitchers should get the same treatment, IMO. If a pitcher gives up a single, it should be worth that fractional amount of runs, just like a strikeout would be negative runs. You could even incorporate expected batting average of each individually batted ball to really get the numbers better. I say you should make your own stat that is much more representative and see what changes year to year vs WAR.

Extremely Common W BND Video

I think the Steal stays at 200 because it is the most affected by a players unique athleticism. Like a heavy player will have the same opportunity to get a walk or single, even fast players can barely make a difference on infield singles, and similar opportunity on doubles and triples, with triples being so rare and then again speed doesn't affect HR. But steals are virtually entirely dependent on a player being fast which WAR cannot calculate for because wow that would make it infinitely more complicated.

Gotta say that’s the greatest thumbnail I’ve ever seen.

What an unbelievable video. Great work!

Fangraphs should hire you

I've been trying to get a grip on WAR since around 2008 or so and it just hasn't happened until now. Thank you for this video. Also how do we get those two tweaks added to the FIP calculation? Can't you email the right person and present your case like you did to us? It's pretty compelling evidence.

Can't believe that one guy went after Warhammer

This video made me subscribe. Excellent work.

I love to calculate baseball stats in my free time...that saying I have some sports accolades and been athletic my whole life, so no clue what that man was on about

This channel so underrated

Kinda making me think a bit about park adjustment too when you bring up % based stats. Because for example Coors is infamous for being a weird pitching environment that I have to wonder if it affects strikeout%. ERA+ adjusts for park but FIP doesn't even though there are park factors that do somewhat affect strikeout%, though itd be a bit weird to calculate too. Just goes to show how approximate stats really often are in telling a player's career.

thats exactly what i have been saying, if the team or player is worse or or better it will fluctuate regardless of the player's skill

Another issue: WAR doesn’t factor in the value of 1 spot of extra roster flexibility that a two-way player brings. How much would that be worth?

Excellent video!!

That intro song is really cool!

WAR. WAR never changes.

i wanted to hear “War never changes” fallout reference😭

I'd be curious to see a season's worth of WAR totals calculated using your suggested changes and see if it helps to align the final bndWAR (if you will) with eye test better than the current WARs tend to for some fans.

It depends if you want to include fielding as a factor into WAR since, from my understanding, BaseballReference's WAR (bWAR) does not calculate fielding values for hitters and pitchers but FanGraph's WAR (fWAR) does include player value derived from fielding

Ctrl+Shift+Direction Arrow will quick select the cells in a column/row. Quicker than holding shift and selecting.

“Neuro-divergent” “nerd” “unathletic” “dungeons and dragons” I DONT EVEN PAY ATTENTION THAT MUCH TO ADVANCED STATS, WHAT DID I DO TO CATCH STRAYS? Let me be a dork and enjoy sports jeez!

Glad I'm a simple software dev and not someone that needs to understand maths