What If The Ottomans Were Destroyed At Varna? 

Thank you for watching! My voice is not entirely as it should be thanks to a slight illness, but I hope you enjoyed the video nontheless. As always, to support the content consider leaving a like and a comment to help the video against the algorithm, and subscribe for at least 1 (alternate) history video every single week.

Habsburgs. You missed the Habsburgs. Jagiellons were competing with Habsburgs for a dynastic influence over Central Europe. They even had an agreement that Władysław can be king of Hungary, but if he dies without an heir, a Habsburg will replace him. And that's exactly what happened. Władysław III doesn't need to create a Polish-Hungarian-Lithuanian kingdom. That wasn't even the strategy of the dynasty at that point. By surviving he ensured the Hungarian throne for his heirs. Keeping the Polish and Hungarian crowns separate would be part of the reason the Hungarian nobility would cooperate with the Jagiellons. They weren't Polish and it was very important to them not to become part of a Polish kingdom. There's a difference between having a foreign king and being part of a foreign kingdom and they were acutely aware of it. With this strategy proving successful, the Jagiellons would continue to position their family members in influentian positions in Central Europe and in the Balkans. Possibly later into Bohemia and maybe into the Holy Roman Empire as well. Even just gaining Bohemia could allow them to crown one of their own as Holy Roman Emperor, seeing as one already came from there. Don't tell me the Jagiellons had no interest in gaining influence in the West, because even gaining Hungary for Władysław was a move to the West. I imagine there could be a possibility that the dynasty would gain both a Holy Roman Emperor and a regular Roman (byzantine) Emperor. At that point it would probably spark an European war comparable to the War of the Spanish Succession.

With the reunification of the church with the west (Rome), it's possible the Nicean Church could make a comeback and prevent protestantism. This could also be problematic to the Russians, as after Byzantium's fall it led to Russia being declared as the protector of Orthodox Christianity.

I believe that the Jagellions would also inherit the Kingdom of Bohemia as well, because at one point Bohemia fell into interregnum and a Jagellion heir was chosen, expanding PLC influence in Central Europe.

Greetings from Bulgaria! Fruzhin from the House of Shishman would have probably been a candidate for the Bulgarian crown as he was an heir to the last tsars of the divided bulgarian tsardoms and he also participated in the crusade of Varna. After he had escaped the conquered bulgarian lands, he went to the western royal courts to petition help against the Ottomans. Great video overall, but Fruzhin shouldnot be left out in a video about this topic.

The biggest change would be people complaining on forums about "Ottoboos" due to everyone posting their "unrealistic and ahistorical" big green blobs since the Ottomans would be the underdog in the 1444 Europa Universalis start date.

One of the biggest side effects of byzantine survival / delayed fall would be diminished push for colonialism since ottoman trade restrictions were one of the big reasons for that.

Idk if the Balkans would truly be safe so long as Mehmed II was still alive. He just does not come off as the kind of guy who would meekly watch as his father's empire crumbles into ruin, even in the most dire circumstances (such as the one he potentially faced during his siege of constantinople). Obviously the success of an empire depends on more complex factors than just the rulership of one guy. But considering the monumental feats he was able to accomplish in our timeline and undeterred by his father's shortcomings, a defeat of this scale for the empire would only strengthen Mehmed II's conviction that he was destined by god to turn it all around.

Regarding Bulgaria, Fruzhin Shisman, the son of the last Tzar and successor for the crown was an Hungarian noble who fought in the campaign. He had to become Tzar under Vladislav influence of course.

I’m an ubereats driver and was ubering to your videos all night into the morning (american here) and it made my day to finish my shift and see that you uploaded. Keep going bro

Yes! Kind of alt histories are my favorite! thank you!

Lots of cities in Anatolia were dominated by Christians. I think a reconquista or Christianization would be possible. Also Mehmed had a Serbian mother (some even say he was not a Muslim) that is why he took the Roman crown and tried to Romanize before he died from posioning by his zealot son. So if the Ottomans were to be humiliated, he would've tried to join the Christians.

It’s an extreme understatement to say that the balkans were important to the ottomans, the territories not only were about as rich and taxable as england but also were the main source of the Ottoman elite force the Jannissaries and their main source of bureaucrats, if they don’t regain their losses within a few decades, their influence would’ve been negligible at best given just how poor the interior anatolian countryside was at this point in time, with only the thin coastline providing decent tax source and with the anatolian nobles becoming far more powerful compared to our timeline, the ottomans likely would get rid of the smaller beyliks and then stop once it reaches the eastern mountains or tries to invade Syria, same for the west, where the absence of a weak ruler would be quite enough to prevent another incursion into the balkans

Love how far your videos have come. Keep up the good work 👍

pls make a second part, this timeline is sooooo interesting

I have waited years for this, thank you

THANK YOU THANK YOU I have been wanting to see this scenario for ages

Very nice video. You earned a new fan!

Something I'd point out is that around the time of the crusade of Varna the future Constantine XI launched incursions into Attica and Thessaly, potentially providing more help for the crusaders alongside your idea of an expanded crusade. Thus a greater degree of communication might have helped a little too. Alongside that Ibrahim Bey of the Karamanids in Anatolia was launching attacks on the Ottomans, even destroying Ankara and Kütahya.

In Poland we pronounce "J" (Jagiellonian) as "Y". If I would write your prononciation in polish it will be Dżadżelon.

Thank you I've been looking for an althist on this since the start of time

been waiting for this

Very nice vid man ! Also, speaking of the Ottomans, even if they became an Anatolian regional power, I believe they would fall to the Safavids. You see, during the first Safavid emperor's reign (Ismail I) , many revolts against the Ottoman Empire were funded by the Safavids in order to conquer Anatolia. This was because Ismail I allegedly had more legitimacy to rule Anatolia than his Ottoman counterparts (Bayezid II and Selim I) . If the Ottomans were weaker and only in charge of Anatolia, I doubt they would manage to fend off all of the revolts, meaning that eventually it would fall to the Safavids, therefore drastically re-shaping Islamic history. If I said something horribly wrong, though, don't hesitate to correct me.

The emperor of the Byzantine Empire was willing to rejoin the Orthodox, and Catholic churches in order for aid. But the people of the Byzantine empire, and those outside of it, were heavily opposed to the reunification. There would have been much infighting about this, to the point of rebellion in the Balkans against reunification.

The idea of a properly organized power in eastern Europe thats not russia is probably the most interesting aspect to this. Maybe Theyd support novgorodians against muscovites or as the saviros of byzantium they end up pulling in many of the classical scholars and create an eastern renaissance to go along with the southern and northern renaissance that happened in OTL

Neat alt history video. Never once thought about this one.

I love your channel and videos, and this one is great too, but I'd love to see you make up your own timeline. I love that you stay realistic, but you seem to fall into vagueness and it ends up a bit boring. Maybe you could just do a very general summary of the affected areas into the modern era in your videos, so that it's a little more interesting.

Finally, an alternate history channel that’s consistent and doesn’t make dogshit videos.

Ah yes Varna, the Bulgarian city also im from Bulgaria and i love rhe vids you make dude!

This was a very good cenário

I want to see a Polish, Hungarian, and Lithuanian commonwealth too!

Can't believe the Crusade can be talked about without mentioning Hunyadi, since it would have never happened without him forever trying to push the Ottomans out. As it wasn't the "strong leader" Wladyslaw doing most.

Where do you get/make these maps? They look absolutely perfect and I would like to use them for alt history

Can you make a video on Queen Elizabeth's suitors because she had many marriage proposals by so many people I know you did one on Ivan the Terrible of Russia but you can make a lot more videos with a lot more scenarios of her suitors and their marriage to her and how each other's marriages could change history with every individual ruler

So pumped by the video, I'm gonna launch EU4 and play a solid Poland game

When you blow up i'll be able to say I was here before 10,000 subscribers. Thank you for all the high quality videos. In case you need more scenarios, two alternate history ideas I had were "what if operation valkariye or a similar plot to kill hitler succeeded" and what if the Russian Empire won the Japanese-War".

Perfect choice of background music. No notes.

nice video :)

I am going to assume the big Jagielon Empire theory to be true (also the way you spell it makes me want to cry)

The thing about Crusades is that a successful Crusade tends to spur on further crusading in the same general direction, i.e. Anatolia within a few years. While such a follow up crusade is not certain to succeed, I think it's likely to (unless someone fucks up, which is always a possibility; humans be humans after all). Assuming it's launched in the late 1440s, the Ottomans would still be dealing with aftermath of the Varna Crusade. The Ottomans would still have a child on the throne (or at least someone who's entirely unproven), would be lacking prestige and legitimacy (people would be questioning the Ottomans' right to rule at this moment, where victory can justify one's rule defeat would do the opposite) and they would be dealing with the still independent Turkish tribes in Anatolia. On top of that the Ottomans were not quite so unified as it would seem. Within Anatolia you still have recently reconquered Turkish tribes, reconquered after being lost due to the Ottomans' defeat at the hands of Timur, that would likely be agitating for independence. On top of that Western Anatolia is still quite heavily populated by Greek Christians and would likely be quite lukewarm to the idea of their continued dominance by the Muslim Ottoman Turks and be at least neutral, but most likely positive, towards the return of Christian rule to the area. The thing is, historically the Ottomans were not nearly as secure in their position in 1444 as they would be roughly 50 years later. The mid-15th century was full of possibilities in this region of the world, if only the Christians were capable of coming together and exploiting them. As for the Post-Varna Balkans... I have to question the notion of a Jagiellon ruled Bulgaria. Why spread your dynasty out further when you still need to secure your pre-existing lands? Ruling the lands south of the Danube is difficult work for lands that are relatively impoverished. Better to engender friendly relations with the Romans and hand over the region to Constantinople and let them deal with it. They'd probably also through Serbia under the bus as well. Neither a friendly Serbia nor Bulgaria put together hold a candle to a friendly, Christian Constantinople. It would also help to further smooth over efforts at a reunion of the churches. A friendly Constantinople would also act as valued bulwark to secure their Southern Flank against the possibility of a Turkish resurgence in the Balkans. We know that such a resurgence would be unlikely (though not impossible), but _they_ don't know that. The Romans would also act as a very good ally against the Venetians, whom the Polish-Hungarians would be in conflict with. Now, what would the Romans do with the region? Rule everything south of the Danube like the days of yore? I doubt it. The Romans would likely only directly rule everything south of the Haemus Mountains while only maintaining some fortifications along the Danube (for trade purposes), while making the rest of friendly puppet state. The Romans have long since learned that the Danube simply doesn't make for a very good border. So, by 1500 the Balkans and Anatolia would look very similarly to how they did in the 12th century. As for further along in the timeline? Either the Romans lose Anatolia or regain it in its entirety. No state can only rule part of Anatolia, unless outside powers enforce it as the status quo.

Great premise. I'd add that if the Jagiellon "Superstate" adopted the same constitutional principles as the PLC (eg liberum veto), it would have resulted in a fractured state easily manipulated by their neighbours, much as in our own timeline.

This is a really good video. hi.

An alternative history scenario I’ve been very interested in but haven’t seen many videos of us “What if the Entente had succeeded in the Gallipoli campaign”

Frujin (Prince/Knyaz of Bulgaria) who participated in the crusade was the main claimant for the Bulgarian throne so I would expect him to become Tsar or Knyaz if it's with patronage or under the Hungarian King

Ideas: - What If Norway 🇳🇴 took control of Britain in 1066 AND NOT William I Of Normandy? - What If Iran remained Zoroastrian? - What If Russia turned Facist AND NOT communist - What If Russia won WW1?

Eu4 would have a different start date

4:15 slight correction, Skanderbeg is pronounced with "ž" at the end of his name. The "ž" is like a "g" sliding and being longer pronounced. I hope it was understandable enough.

I don't think other powers in Europe especially Austria would allow a young ruler such as Vlad become that powerful. Whenever a country gets too bloby European powers seem to come to their senses and team up against the big boy. Such as the ottomans and then France (Spanish succession).

finally someone is speaking on polish lithuanian commonwealth

Kind of a similar scenario but what if Skanderbeg did not get sick and die and thus lived on to win against the Ottomans

Tbh modern Greece + Izmir/Smyrna looks really cool.

Finally you're saying "Balkans" correctly (sometimes).

It's important to know, that the crusaders literally defeated the Ottomans, but then arrived the late Venicean fleet and Vladislav was like: Oh, we have fleet now. Lets break the treaty we've just signed an attack again. What could possibly go wrong?

Brazillian maping got a whole AHOE series to this. S2 ends with Hungary-poland-Lithuania comonwealth

Now I am just waiting for a video "What If everything went PERFECT for the Jagiellons"

Here are three what if scenarios into one big one what if Napoleon never invaded Russia but instead invade the Ottoman Empire what if Napoleon married a Russian princess and what if Napoleon never invaded Spain what do you think would happen

Would you make what if the Muslims kept Spain

What if the union between the danubian principalities by michael the brave was maintained?

Still awesome as always ! If I can suggest somes ideas I find interesting : What if the technocratic party won the american elections of 1936 What if the industrial revolution started in china What if the majapahit empire never disolved

You completely missed the existence of a state that came into being only 60 years after this battle: Safavid Persia. A significantly weakened Ottoman empire means more time for Persia to consolidate its rule over the lands they lost to the Ottomans in early 1500s, Mesopotamia and eastern Anatolia. Also it means both Persia and Mamluks of Egypt would have more time to adopt firearms and be more on pars with the Ottomans.

I would honestly imagine that a successful crusade would reignite fervor in Catholicism, on top of the mending of the scism, and might lead to further crusades with even more participants and maybe even another push for Jerusalem

Greetings from Varna :)

Can you do a video about what if the revolt of 1857 was successful?

HUGE MISTAKE IN THIS VIDEO, Murad II was not the sultan of the ottomans, the ottoman sultan at the time told Murad to come out of abdication and lead the ottoman armies at Varna, as he was less experienced.

Even if they did win the battle it wouldn´t have amounted to much, most western nobles looked at a crusade more as a field trip/ distraction than actual long term goals

If the greater jagiellon empire became a thing, chanches are Poland would challenge the holy roman empire, which at the threat of such a powerful state invading its princes would have acted as a whole in defence. And being embroided in such a massive war would have made eastern Europe open for an ottoman re-expansion

best timeline

Cool video, but you dont say JaGiellon but yagielon;)

can you do a "What if Catherine the great married George III" this was weirdly enough very possible in 1760-1762

The nobility... it's always the blasted nobility

That's interesting.

I already know people from the Balkans that see this video we love it because if there's one thing broken people hate most is an ottoman Turk

Damn, I need to get that "Lions from the north" dlc and finally do a Poland campaign. Right now I'm slowly making my way from year 2 to 2023 in extended timeline as Poland. Around 1400 years still to go...

European kings failing to produce a single heir to their throne while the Ottoman Sultans casually executing 29 of their brothers so they won't cause civil wars be like.

Great video but i dont think the orthodox church would reunite with the west, the only reason i saw was how the byzanines were basicly a city state and thought if they rejoined with the west they would get more assistance. I do think there would be on wayyyy more friendlier relations though, but a full-on reunion i doubt.

there is also an AHOE about an althistory what if the crusade won from brazilian mappers.

I think you mixed up expanding Candar rather than Trebizond

When it comes to Southeastern Europe, the majority of internet "historians" are traditionally fixated on the East Roman Empire, and ignore the fact that the said Empire hasn't boasted a dominant role in SE Europe from the 1200s and onward, the state that did, in fact, boasts the dominant role was the Medieval Serb state, whether in the form of the Serbian Empire, Lazar's Serbia and the Serbian Despotate, the said state was the preeminent enemy of the Ottoman Empire in SE Europe and the preeminent bulwark against the Ottoman Empire with the largest flatland fortress in Europe, waging war against the Ottomans for more or less 100-140 years, depending on whether one identifies Zeta as the final iteration of the Medieval Serb state. Considering the massive territory liberated in the first year of the Varna Crusade, it is more than apparent that the Serb and Hungarian, not Polish leadership were instrumental in the matter, and both, due to generation-spanning experience in waging war against the Ottomans, understood that after these triumphs and the events in Anatolia (invasion of the Ottoman Empire by either the Karamanids or the Aydinids), the Ottomans were in a dire position, and could not retake lost territories, and would agree to all terms of negotiation, and they did at Szeged, but Polish, East Roman and the Vatican geopolitical aspiration triumphed over reason, and they pushed for the furthering of the Varna Crusade (thus turning triumph into defeat), instead of consolidating their positions against the Ottomans, as Hunyadi and Brankovic had advised. Furthermore, Branković had a much larger interest in the peace treaty and solicited Hunyadi's support. He demanded that Serbia be returned to him, and he bribed Hunyadi by promising him the land he held in Hungary. On July 3, 1444, the lordship of Világosvár was transferred, in perpetuity, to Hunyadi. Around the same time, as additional security, the estates of Mukačevo, Baia Mare, Satu Mare, Debrecen, and Böszörmény were also transferred, and Hunyadi became the largest landowner in the Kingdom. There is another reason for this, Brankovic understood that a Hungary dominated by Hunyadi and his progeny would be a vital asset and ally to the Serb state, and to Hungary itself. He was proven right, the rule of Corvinus speaks volumes on the matter.

If only he had more shock pips maybe it could have been

Dziękuje

As a Polish I think you forgot about few countries including Brandenburg, The Teutonic Knights, Russian Principalities, Crimean Tatars and most Importantly Austria.

Any timeline with the Ottomans getting their asses kicked is a good timeline.

Very interesting scenario. I think similarly that Poland Lithuania Hungary would be short lastenig becoming Poland Lithuania as in our timeline however with maybe of incorporation of nowadays Slovakia (due to linguistic and ethnic ties) which was part of Kingdom of Hungary at the time

Best timeline

One key note the unification of the churches likely would not happen in a byzantine revival as the only reason talks ever happened was because the Byzantines were so weal

The inventor / creator of the ''Great bombard'' was a Christian Hungarian. Not an Ottoman Turk, If Varna was not lost, then the Ottomans would never had any artillery larger then just the basic small cannons of the time.

One thing I think was missed here was that Germany would probably have been unified sooner, without Austrian influence over Hungary, it's possible they would've eventually lost the Emperorship to perhaps the Bavarian Wittelsbachs, or even the Bohemians. Coincided with the Reformation, the Austrians would be unable to keep the south of Germany Catholic, and thus divided, and so it seems more than likely that Germany would've unified under a protestant Wittelsbach dynasty, or something to that effect.

Ideas: what would happen if Italians were competent in 19~20C?

Jagellon Empire Could have been created the same way the Habsburg Empire was. Initally the Kingdoms and Duchies the habsburgs ruled weren't united and only shared a king. it took many centuries of reforms, squashing rebellions and building institutions to truelly Unify all the habsburg held lands into a singular empire. This only completed in the napoleonic era when the Empire of Austria (wich was a different instution than the Duchy of Austria) was declared. The Jagellon's with enough prestigious positions and victories backing them and working together as a family similar to the Habsburgs could have created a similar empire wich was culturally diverse but had a long tradition of sharing the same monarch, and eventually common institutions such as a common army, currency and economic union.

What about the discovery of America? Wasnt the age of exploration all about the end of the bizantine control over the spice trade? How would the survival of bizantium impact this?

What have you got against the pluperfect tense?

Not gagelon dynasty, but yagyelon dynasty. It is that hard to check spelling at Google translate?

There was a plan for Bulgaria btw, the kingdom was promised to John Hunyadi in return for his further participation in the crusade.

I hate how you establish Hungary as a downward spiraling kingdom after the Crusade of Varna, completely ignoring the golden age of Hungary under Matthias Hunyadi.

I watched this video while playing eu4

You forgot the effects that Constantinople not falling would have on the Great Navigations in the west, if the Crusade was successful, maybe there wouldn't have been such a big incentive to find alternative routes to asia, and the americas would have been discovered and colonized later, allowing native American civilizations to better adapt and maybe survive colonization.

You forgot that when EU4 would eventually be developed in our timeline the start date would be different

After the survival of the byzantines, they would do everything to return Anatolia since it was still majority Greek even the kingdom of pontus was still independent which was Greek

Very good point. The Varna system is based on employment and I have already achieved up to Private equity then ended it and then started social media`ing my history. Meaning a failure of The system and heritage is the only ruling hierarchy. Therefor 14th century Varna named people are grouped into the bottom part of the three part triangle. ⚡️🤴🏽🕉🔺➕

What if the New Madrid earthquake hit somewhere/time else? Like today?