What is Tesla Doing? How Long Will it Take? 

To me, Tsla has what it takes to massive success in long run, for short term, I have stopped anticipating any strike of lottery moment in stock price

Thanks Lee. For me, you’re perhaps the most realistic, well-reasoned bloke discussing Tesla on RU-vid right now. Some of your subtle quips keep me giggling along from time to time too. Keep up the good work!

You and I have spoke about this before. The Gen III vehicle will energize demand. This vehicle will have a much bigger addressable market.

Hi Lee, thanks for your videos. Always a good listen. More of them would be great!

Thank you 🙏 Lee. Today Tesla stock move up 4 percent, because of EG group placed an order for 20 ,000 Tesla super chargers 🔌. EG group it is one of 7 biggest oil distributors companies. They are business 👨‍💼 people, and they are sending an message to everyone: “ EVs are the future, and we are transforming “. Excellent news for Tesla & Tesla investors, IMO?

The timeline of future plans has not been the downfall for investors and traders... the downfall was allowing themselves to get whipsawed by leverage, volatility and emotion. The key to any arena of probability and tendency is to simplify the complex, to make your decisions easier. The best way to make decisions easier is to have a process where you are making fewer of them. Inactivity truly is the hallmark of the wise investor.

Wassup Lee, I haven't seen you or heard from u a while. I hope u r doing well. It's good to hear ur soothing voice again.

Plus Nov 30 we get the Cybertruck. Then it’s clear air for Rivian and Tesla for the next few years. Legacy can’t keep up with production or price.

1:44 Quick clarification: should be “anecdote”, not “antidote”.

My concern is that while Tesla is leading the way in certain tech, if it takes too long to execute then others may catch up and the advantage is lost. It is not just about having the best tech but being able to roll it out into saleable, scaleable products.

Being “slow” could be related to timing. Remember Tesla has battery contracts, so 4680 ramped batteries have to have a place to go. Once they decide they need more batteries they can accelerate production by installing more lines…

We've missed you!

Respect Lee I thought I was doing ok with 4000 shares but you are in a different league

Keep up the good work

Thanks Lee, a very rational, cool synopsis for us shareholders and even for those who are on the fence maybe. Like SMR, I'm not smart enough to play with options so my only strategy is to hoddle. I see Tesla as a long term growth opportunity that "could" break out either way at almost any time so I just let it ride, so far up 10x from my initial investment. The problem I face is that I am retired and can’t really add much to the “pool” anymore. Your question as to when should you buy Tesla is and has always been, "whenever you can come up with the cash" ha! Who cares if it drops 50% shortly afterwards, you’re in it for the long run and it can easily 2-3 x again like it did this year. Just ride it out like the incredibly thrilling roller coaster it is, you either believe or you don’t and if you don’t, well buy something else, right? Life has a way of throwing curve balls and being retired with a fixed income, I have had to sell some shares over the last year or so and sometimes I thought it was bad timing but really, being up so much since initial invest, that’s just greed speaking. I have instilled my Tesla confidence in one daughter and somewhat in the other and that is enough for me. I know I will be frugal with my shares so they will have nice nest eggs if they do the same. What more can you ask for? Thank you Tesla and Elon and you too Lee, because you are mostly long term bullish, even though as I understand it you got burnt with some trades. My advice for what it is worth…stop trading….or….expect to get burnt once in a while. Just never go all in on any position except riding Tesla till at least 2030.

In 1930 they asked J.P.Morgan what the stock market would do. He responded it would fluctuate. He nailed it!!!

Be patient people in a couple years it will all show itself. Everybody gets caught up in this short term thinking. that’s the problem with society. They want everything right now. good things come to people who are patient.

Interesting analysis. Although the “No demand” storyline seems to be completely inaccurate given where Q4 is going to end up. As always Tesla sells everything they make, and at a industry leading margin. Auto sales are cyclic around recession. Low points correlate almost exactly with it. So 2024 and possibly 2025 will be slow years but 2026, 2027, and 2028 will be high growth years. That will more tan offset any recessionary dip. I am not an Uber Bull but I do believe that Tesla has a solid line of varied products that are growing as quickly as possible. I see the Gen 3 model and Optimus driving the next growth spurt. Starting in late 2025 early 2026.

Thanks for the great analysis. Tesla may not want to use batteries as large as the 4680 for the Tesla bots due to their size. Tesla may opt for a high voltage design. This could pay large dividends in energy efficiency for the motors and the necessary wiring and electronics to drive them. Therefore Tesla will likely opt for a high voltage battery. Likely limited by the amount of space and weight they want to reserve for the battery. The 4680 would preclude something like a 500 volt battery pack. It will be interesting to see if Tesla elects for a removable battery for the Tesla bot. A Tesla bot, with a tiny backup battery could be designed to swap its own battery pack so that it could run 24 hours a day, 7 days a week between any necessary maintenance. Just mount the battery in the torso anywhere it can reach. That would definitely be useful on a factory floor that runs three shifts (24 hours).

Unrivaled analysis as expected. Curious what your ballpark 12 to 24 month target is ?

With legacy builders backing off on their EV efforts, it could mean more resources will be available for Tesla. By the time legacy starts pushing again, Tesla will be further ahead and in control of more resources than they are already in control of now. I believe the next Tesla price run will be when the compact is finally given a release date and we see test mules on the road. It will be that torpedo in one of top arguments against EVs. Sadly, this likely means the next major movement, as in what insane level of movement, will not happen until late 2026 at the earliest.

Your 18 Jan presentation disappeared as fast as it appeared - A GENUINE DISPLAY OF COURAGE & HONESTY - Yes we are fanboys - And, yes Elon has achieved unbelievable things - Your words were said from the heart - In every respect it was the little boy questioning the emperor's clothes - He is not naked - But nor is he a god - YOU HAVE GIVEN US THE REALITY CHECK WE ALL NEED - THANK YOU

I'm a Tesla bull, but all bets are off if demand for Tesla cars starts to drop significantly. One issue with EVs is the more EV's that are sold, the less demand for gas. This will drop the price of gas which in turn will make EVs less attractice. That's why Tesla needs to keep reducing the overall cost of ownership of their cars thru lower fuel cost, lower overall maintenance cost, better resale value, and reduce insurance cost thru Tesla insurance. I'm not a big fan of advertising, but I would love to see Tesla do some advertising to help educate the public on the benefits of EVs and to push back on some of the media mis-information (which gets a lot of revenue from ICE car ads).

I like the unofficial Tesla motto "Making the Impossible merely late".

Your analysis is the best but getting fairly sparse recently. I hope you have something interesting to say more often. Good job.

Stay the course

Investor since 2012 here. Concerned/not concerned. I'm sure Tesla will get (much) bigger and will dominate. But... Elon's remarks about not growing 50% a year anymore, the lack of short-term revenue coming from FSD, the lack of updates or communication about 4680. I do think it has hurt the current stock price. If Tesla manages to squeeze more revenue from their software already, the stock would shoot up.

Gen 3 at Austin. Oh lord DARK LEE IS BACK.

Highly geared options on a share are too scary for me to use.

I agree that investing in Tesla is a bumpy ride, but generally not much different that investing in any large cap growth stock. Predictions of where things will go with Tesla stock is very difficult as investing in Tesla is as much a bet on the company as it is in the wider economy. One thing I am certain about though, is if the wider economy grows Tesla will also grow, and potentially grow at an accelerated rate!

Tesla has so many intrinsic competitive advantages, in so many fields (car manufacturing, software, energy, robotics, IA, etc), all you have to do is stay calm and let time runs...It may take 8 years or 10 years or maybe 15 years to reach 20M cars/year, so what ? It only has an impact if your time horizon is short. But setting a short time horizon is intrinsically a mistake !

I think we could see a run up to the cybertruck launch now! Could take us up to the $250s

Have you factored in Tesla now selling their superchargers to 3rd parties like BP?

I thought 4680 was only for cybertruck and Semi. LFP prices will probably continue to fall, so it seems like the obvious choice for model 2/robotaxi.

Many of assume low margins but manufacturing improvements should help margins…

Demand will vary, yes, but we have an entire ICE fleet to replace - and it will get replaced and the rate of replacement will increase, the economics will drive this

Sadly most investors are not engineers. Engineering is hard, Elon Musk told us. Transforming a paradigm is harder. It seems to me the time has come to subcontract out lower functions, like superchargers. The growing numbers required with BP and EG contracts requires competent and trustworthy metal bashing firms, of which there must by many in the legacy auto supply chain looking to diversify, perhaps in India. Tesla retaing the software IP development and integration functions. Same with Mega Packs.

More depends on the 4680 than believed. The delay in cybertrucks, Semi-trucks, and 25K sedan is directly related to the delay here. If they can actually achieve the high-volume, low cost, high energy density 4680, Tesla will burst forward with rapidly expanding production and out-sized profits. I hate "If."

Lee, do you see Tesla 10Xing in the next 7 years or so?

I have really enjoyed your work. I am permanently out of Tesla as a result of Elon's X stuff and his obscene position on certain international conflicts. Thanks again, Lee.

Tesla is beavering away in the background with fsd, cybertruck, bot, new gigas etc. They are solving some of the most difficult problems like fsd and sometimes you can go down blind alleys and gave to change course. Be patient.

Personally I think FSD will take way longer than people think, but there is a silver lining. All the FSD data and training will be used for Teslabots, which are way way easier to manufacture, train and deploy. The big problem with FSD is people can die if it goes wrong - the risks with bots is far lower. We might solve FSD in my lifetime but I expect Teslabots to be out there in businesses quite quickly and general use even before FSD is allowed with no restrictions on the roads.

jeez 8 figures?

DID YOU NOT SEE THE LIMITING FACTOR 4680 VIDEO! DARK LEE!

The future is uncertain when it comes to TIMING, but not with RESULTS when it comes to what Tesla is working on. That long TIME HORIZON that I had almost a decade ago is serving me well and while I never took a penny out... I console myself that I never intended to before 2030. Things have changed and my reason for investing in Tesla has only GROWN OVER TIME while the volatility has lasted way longer and can be much fiercer as a result. I am willing to bear it. Looking too far out may be too much for some, but this opportunity is so LARGE that it requires MORE FROM INVESTORS. I should have huge biceps from holding through all of the ups and downs! I forebear because while I don't know when any of these incredible things that are in the works WILL occur, I am confident in the fact that given the time I have dedicated to waiting, I will be RICHILY REWARDED.

Ah Lee, if only we could get you on Herb’s Tesla Bulls round table… my dream.

Optimus could easily arrive before FSD or the Compact. If the bot can be trained to build bots (an obvious use case) then you literally get exponential growth and all you need is a warehouse and some bins of parts.

The nexus of technologies that Tesla is developing cannot be rivaled. The Chinese will remain software/AI deficient. The bad macro will prevent all easy paths to parity with Tesla. It has given Tesla more time to do things efficiently and profitably

Cybertruck sales & production volumes are to be low according to Elon. Much less than 3 & Y

they are ramping the 4680's right now, why you think they are not?

Elon has taken foot off the gas pedal - the promised land comes slower if at all Elon isn't alone: others also see the economic uncertainties ahead and acting

Relax. Dont worry about tsla. It doesent matter. At all What matters is Tesla execute their plan

It takes a delusional mind to think that at this stage, Tesla will hit 20 million cars by 2023. My take is a maximum of 10 million.

By removing the stalks, Tesla show their cars are not meant to be driven. If Tesla don't solve FSD within the next 3/4 years, TSLA stock price will plummet.

Still affordable cars is the most important things , talk this over 3 years . Don’t much care fuxking cybertruck

Another start of the Tesla economist meltdown. Challenged his last time. Jello opinion that will be followed by an announcement that he sold his in-laws position. Come out with it man. You hid for a few weeks while you wallowed in your own insecurities. Be firm one way or the other or get out of You Tube. We do not need fence sitters. We would respect an opinion right or wrong . Not marshmallow man. You came across that way.

No stalks is gamer amateurism. Telling Zelenskyy not to send his youth to defend their own country is embarrassingly dumb. Not having industry experience is now showing.