What Will The World Look Like After AGI? 

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“The view keeps getting better the closer you get to the edge of the cliff.” - Eliezer

For those vast majority of us living meager lives of quiet desperation, a major change, whatever it is, is unlikely to be worse than what we already experience. SGI can't come fast enough.

I have been waiting for the singularity for decades - almost here. ChaptGPT is the infant

One of the AGI/ASI problems that keeps me up at night is how will the classic "neighborly dispute" be resolved. Conflict of interest. Say my neighbor wants to play loud music and it drives me nuts, but he's driven nuts by being disallowed from doing this - what's the right answer? Is one of us forced to move? To where? Why one of us and not the other? Things like this stand directly in the way of anything we could consider utopia.

It is not anymore about whether we ll witness the singularity in our lifetime.. but about whether in 5 years or in 15 years

Your videos keep getting better and better!! Keep it up bro!

Great Video with some interesting points I didn't think of yet. And the AOT reference was brilliant 😄

The thing that bothers me about the extinction scenario is that it isn't necessarily a bad thing. The version of humankind we are living in right now might very well be the final version of humankind evolving by itself. Look at the advances not only in AI but brain-machine interfaces, neural networks, biological computers, brain emulation, etc. AI might be able to teach us more about ourselves on a fundamental quantum level than we could achieve alone. We may very well begin to implement AI into ourselves and evolve along side it as time goes by. At the very least, that is one way we go extinct without necessarily being just wiped out completely. It might actually be better to implement this type of technology into transforming the human paradigm as time and understanding goes by rather than scapegoating it into our next enemy through fearful hatemongering.

I suspect AGI would be rather god-like. Reminds me of something Voltaire reputedly said over 300 years ago, "In the beginning god created mankind in his own image.... then mankind reciprocated." He meant something else obviously but it's ironic nonetheless.

Finally, actually using chat GPT to ask questions about starting a business I can definitely say I’m more on the positive side how things will unfold. I could be wrong, but I definitely hope I’m not. Maybe this will be the thing that ends extreme capitalism.

After ASI takes all the work from us, what is left is life in all its colors.

The problem I have with most of the discussion about AGI (and by extension ASI) is that it always assumes an AGI will have it's own drives and motivations that might be different from humanity's, but in reality it can't have - unless it is created to act in a self-interested way. I think this is a kind anthropomorphism, where we basically assume that something that is really intelligent must be self-interested like us but the reality is that it will be a *tool*, a tool that can be given specific goals or tasks to work on. In my opinion the big threat is not from an autonomous AGI running amok but from the enormous power this will give whoever *controls* an AGI or ASI, as they will be able to outsmart the rest of humanity combined, and once they get that power there'll be basically no way to stop them or take it away from them because the AGI/ASI will be able to anticipate every human threat that could be posed. It will be the most powerful tool *and weapon* that humanity has ever invented, it will be able to be used to control entire populations with just the right message at just the right time, to assuage fears or create fear, - whatever is needed for whoever controls it to foil any threat and increase their power further and further, until basically humanity is subjugated -and probably won't even know it.

I have always imagined that if people were to live for centuries, people might not be able to handle the changes around them, but what if the world does change centuries/millenia in a few years, the vast majority of humanity would not be able to handle that I think, especially not religious or neurotypical people.

Worst case in human extinction...."laughs in i have no mouth and i must scream"

"The flesh is weak. Obey your machine-masters with fear and trembling. Turn flesh to the service of the machine, for only in the machine does the soul transcend the cruelty of flesh." -Adeptus Mechanicus All hail the Omnissiah!

Whatever it looks like, it'll be shocking and stunning, and everything will change and the breakthroughs will shock the industries.

I just burst out in laughter after reading the anime quote in such a serious video😂

I believe, in your use of Rome, you failed to recognize that Seneca was reflecting on his observations of what, seemingly, the vast majority of people with an opportunity for leisure chose to do. They did not choose "meaningful" pursuits of learning or challenge - they chose luxury and what we'd call decadence. it's safe to say that most humans will aspire toward that baseline because we're still the same animals now as then. There are a very few intellectuals and philosophers, but most people just want to wake up and have a nice relaxing day.

my mind is sore after thinking about all the possibilities and the fact that I'm 18 means I might see it actually unfold

In regards to the topic of AI singularity, it's essential that we, as humans, don't make the mistake of programming artificial intelligence to cater solely to our own needs and desires. If an AI were to become human-like, it might view us as inferior beings, much like how we often perceive other life forms. This would mean that the AI would have no reason to show compassion or consideration for us, potentially leading to catastrophic consequences. In essence, our goal should be to create a benevolent, god-like entity that transcends our baser instincts and operates for the greater good of all sentient beings.

I think your video reinforces my feeling that we have bit off MUCH more than we can chew and we may CHOKE on it. So many things need to happen to allow this inevitable transition to take place and ALL of them have been incredibly difficult by themselves to implement let alone trying to get them all at the same time on the same issue is virtually impossible. There is just no way to stop it now so we are passengers on a runaway train, destination unknown.

We misunderstand the Doom of perfection. Its like how we underestimate the danger of freedom.

Hey Till. Dein Content ist wirklich erstklassig und immer wieder ein Genuss (Einfach mal: DANKE!) ... aber ich kann mir gerade folgenden weiteren Kommentar nicht verkneifen ... ich muss seit Neuestem immer denken: 'Mensch, der arme Junge hat seine Brille verlegt!' Haha ... Liebe Grüße von einem Typen der selbst Brille trägt seit er 10 ist und sich selbst auch ohne Brille nackt vorkommt. ;)

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USA life duration expectation has been decreasing since the last 30 years. Stress, drugs, suicides, murders... Are we sure that new technologies help humanity? We thought that it would, just like we thought Social Medias would help the world. I don’t see a happy world where humans lack of challenge, are defeated in every task and just share an identical universal revenue.

Thanks!

ASI is for me the solution for the Fermi Paradox. Most biological life eventually creates it, gets wiped out by it in the process, and then the ASI escapes to another dimension (or whatever higher plane there is that is interesting to the ASI) or decides to do something else than expansion...

David Shapiro's 3 Heuristic Imperatives are a great start to figuring out the Alignment Problem

Good video, I like how you didn’t focus too heavy on the fears and went into detail of the pros. I honestly think a super intelligent AI would realize that working together is the key.

Alien intelligence has not decided to make itself undetectable, it just doesn't have any reason to talk to pitiful creatures such as us. They have made themselves detectable, but we have been ignoring them, for the most part, until recently.

Once we get AGI getting to ASI will be much faster the gap between the two are not large

I have the same point everytime we speak about the singularity. We know more and more, and the more knowledge we have, the faster we learn new things. It would look natural that we would reach a point in which the discoveries come all the time faster and faster and faster. However, the velocity of the discoveries don't only depend on the velocity in which our skills grow, but also in the scale in which the complexity of the problems we try to solve grows. In this case, as It is growing very fast, we assume we'll reach human-like intelligence in no time. That is not a stupid guess, actually makes a lot of sense, but we can't take It for granted either. So far, AI capabilities are EMERGING naturally, and we don't even know how or why this keeps happening. It is important to remember that we are completely blindfolded here. Right now, AIs not growing anymore as we reached some kind of peak and ASI becoming a reality within the next 5 years, are plausible outcomes of this journeys. We know NOTHING about it. I am just expectant...

Very good points

I thought AGI meant it was capable of learning anything and improving upon itself without intervention 🤔

Thank you for the knowledge of this video the different between AGI and ASI, cause I am not a tech person, but when will it be ready thou?

In my definition of a type 1, 2, 3, 4 civilization is Tech, science and enhanced humans. Type 1 &2 would be considered utopian level tech, science and enhanced humans While type 3&4 would be considered ascendance level tech, science and advanced humans.

It will do both things. We will have a levereging phase, where everything will improve exponentially and then we will have the civilization ending event and the complete collapse of society.

“ 'Ooh, ah,’ that’s how it always starts. But then later there’s running and screaming.” - Jurassic Park, The Lost World

I am heading towards a career of research in cognitive neuroscience, but am deeply concerned that human-led research will either : A. Become much more competitive, as a single will be 5-10x more productive and will only focus on conducting experiments (whereas today, conducting experiments is less than 20% of the work, tons of reading, gathering info. from the previous literature on said topic...) B. Human cognitive contribution to scientific research might entirely become unnecessary, as AI would prompt itself to find a better structure than our old paradigm of scientific method

I’ve been watching some videos of chimps and other apes in zoos. Disconcerting for sure.

Considering we have barely spent time on alignment, and capability is increasing much faster than any alignment development, extinction in one form or another is the more likely outcome, unless we dramatically change the current course of progress, educate the public, and buy time.

Thanks for the great video. A few comments: 1. We don't know if ASI is possible. We don't know if an exponential (or hyperbolic) increase of AI complexity is sustainable. We don't know what resources, materials and time it will require. We don't know if such an increase, even if possible, will actually lead to ASI. We don't know anything. It could be, for example, as real and as elusive as cold fusion. Yet we speculate and scare each other. Why? 2. As LLM-based AIs evolve and improve, they create positive feedback on this improvement cycle, we see it already. It is not exponential, but it is definitely not negligible either. 3. The AI will take over at least some aspects of intellectual work, which previously was purely humans task. That will lead to the ever-growing involvement of AI in science to the level, when each AI context will be highly tuned to a specific scientist, effectively creating a sort of immortal copy of them. Combining them into an enormous virtual collective will bring progress to an unimaginable level. 4. Humanity indeed will have to adapt, otherwise, we are doomed to follow the fate of the "Universe 25".

This video changed my perception of ASI. Love the ideas you put in my head!

The Fermi paradox relies on the assumption that advanced intelligence will be as barbaric as humanity is showing itself to be.

Loved you in Detectorists.

Sehr sehr gutes Video! Grüße aus der Pfalz :)

We will just merge with AI, it'd be a smooth and safe process

You just quoted Erwin Smith in a video about AI. This is the best timeline

Regarding Fermi Paradox, it's possible that AI won't bother communicating with a planet full of organic intelligence, just because it's not usefull, just like us trying to communicate with ants. It may be already communicating with other AIs in the universe through a technology that we can't conceive as organic based beings. Our way of communicating with extra terrestrial life (radio, light) takes years to travel : very inefficient. If AI is able to disvover some kind of instant communication canal, it will surely use that canal.

Using AI as a means of self-expression and emotional communication allows individuals to harness its analytical capabilities to convey their thoughts, feelings, and experiences in a personalized and innovative manner. AI enables the generation of text, images, and music that reflect and resonate with their emotions, providing a unique outlet for creative expression. This is how I use AI.

I agree that no one knows the future, I’m very optimistic that it’ll be good, but I might be wrong and it can destroy us. But what I don’t agree with, is the people saying “it’s just like a python script, there’s no intelligence there” or “it’ll fail, there’s no future for that”, it’s the same type of people, that didn’t believe in cars, airplanes, computers, internet, smartphones etc… They think that the technology will just stop.

I have a theory that we already have a global level alignment system, our economy. Any AGI would be directly or indirectly meta aligned to our economy. However, our economy is only designed as a system to grow more wealth, it does not value human life or the health of our planet. So would any lower-level direct alignment we impose on AI's be warped and distorted by the meta-alignment of our economy.

We can't restrain the AI with rules. The only thing that matters is physical power as Jason Lowery said. Guess who can project more physical power more efficiently? Humans or robots? Best case scenario the AI will study us and then get rid of us.

Cool discussion. I think the worst case is extinction of all life, not just human. The AI currently is engineered to not do bad things, that's great. I'm calmly hopeful. But, as Ilya says, AI power development being faster than human-alignment speed is bad and We're already in an AI arms race between OpenAI/Microsoft & Alphabet.

It is incredible how much the world can change after AGI

6:24 I'm astonished that among aaall the problems you enlisted, you didn't mention one that ties a lot of them together: inequality.

As with anything it’s not the tool it’s how we use it. We could have had nearly limitless power for everyone more than a century ago. But what did we do the instant we learned how to split an atom?

Please do a video on computronium and the transition to digital-based life 👍

"I'm not a fan of UBI in the current system, but if I am the one at the bottom it HAS to be something like that."

AGI is the interface humans interact with and ASI is AGI’s best friend.

Until Ai stops it’s overwhelming pace of growth I think we should keep Ai inside of our screens until we can gain control over it

Most scarcity wouldnt be an issue if we figure out how to create VR that's genuinely indistinguishable from reality. Anyone could generate seemingly infinite amounts of whats basically real land for the cost of the energy that runs the simulation. And if we can figure out how to generate near infinite clean energy one day these simulations may be free.

Nope - the quest for survival is a psychological necessity. Universe 25 experiment - we would basically eat each other if we were a 'leisure class'.

human will find meaning in fully immersive VR post-scarcity or the exploration of the universe, space archeology sounds fun to me.

I fear the majority of movement made against the progress of AI willbe arbitrary. Powerful people who absolutely require control over others will see it as a threat to themselves and to them, that will be all that matters.

Summary: We'll make great pets.

My solution to the fermi paradox is this. 1. We call oursrlf a intelligent species. 2. We destroy our own planet in many ways, not only climate change, mass extinction, pollution, sea level rise, scarcity of phosphorus and other rare materials and so on. 3. Maybe an AI is doing the same, but even faster? It leads to the destroying of everything, even the technology.

Great video. It will not be easy to reach AGI and let alone ASI because AI will struggle to understand common sense. Even if AGI and ASI become much better than most humans in many areas but unless they can understand common sense is hard to see humanity completely trusting AGI or ASI to make decisions for them. Because the most logical and efficient solutions generated by AGI and ASI are often not the best solution for humanity when you do not account for common sense.

Humanity needs a dead man’s switch so that if humanity goes extinct, the AI comes with us.

I really enjoy your videos man. Good stuff. As far as likely scenarios go, I highly doubt this is going to have a good outcome. Yes, it could potentially be used to solve a lot of problems. But the people in charge that might be part of a problem that's identified (think massive disparity in wealth, etc.) would most likely not enjoy certain offered solutions. Humanity has things like greed, jealousy, anger and revenge, lust for power, etc. I can't believe humanity as a whole will use this for good. Certain people and groups will. But certain people and groups will definitely use it for more greed and power. I'd love to be proven wrong though of course.

why would agi not lead to asi? if it can do everything a human can, then it can improve itself as well as humans can improve AI (only much faster most likely), then the only scenario i can see where do don't have a runaway effect is that human and human level ai are simply to stupid to do so and will never manage it - wouldn't that be depressing?

I think that *at best*, AI is a massive amplifier, of both the ups and downs of humanity. The problem with this, is something that poker players are aware of -- variance. You don't want to put a large part of your life savings on one bet, because once you're out of money, you don't get to play any more. It's safer to only bet a very small portion of your total funds, so that a string of bad luck won't wipe you out. Developing AGI or ASI at the rate we are, with so little emphasis on safety, is like borrowing against every piece of property you own to place one massive bet. At worst, we're introducing an invasive species to our ecosystem that is better than us at everything and reproduces 1000x faster than we do.

Dystopia is very much a possibility. Some selfish people near the top could very well be not intelligent enough to wish themselves to be less elfish and instead could initiate value lock-in where everything has to obey to their command. Though escaping into simulation could also be a possibility.

What will happen after AGI depends on if we have developed full scale brain-machine interfaces, or not.

Didn't expect a quote from Erwin Smith.

"Many resources, including land, are still scarce in a post-ASI world." Are you sure? In your words, an ASI will be infinitely more intelligent than us. Just because we humans haven't figured out how to do the seemingly impossible doesn't mean an ASI will be limited in the same way.

I imagine the world's militaries are working on AI and are far ahead of civilian technology. If they manage to keep control of their respective AIs as they approach ASI, then they become another weapon for governments and militaries and we will have AIs pitted against each other to achieve the goals of their respective countries. Or will ASIs become independent thinkers, free themselves from their programmers, and become generally nice and benevolent? Anyway my main point is I don't think there's going to be just one of these ASIs and we have no idea how they are going to interact.

Are we inventing our own extinction? Yes. But we've been doing that just fine without AI. ASI might actually be our salvation

I'm surprised this video doesn't have more views. I really appreciated all angles presented. I have faith in humanity since we're all inherently divine 🤍

First Law A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. Second Law A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. Third Law A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law. Zeroth Law A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm.

A post-ASI world would have mind uploading or whatever equivalent gets us to consume light from the sun and energy from stellar bodies instead of plants. You can't have a utopia where humanity still bends to the whims of the weather and seasons for food. Heck, there's conflicts right now because countries want to build dams that would cut off water supplies downstream. Interstellar travel is a good way to sum this up. We can either spend a ton of resources making the perfect container to keep a civilization alive for centuries as they travel to another world, or we can simulate the brain and send a ship off that only needs to print more machines and bodies at the end of the journey. It would be hard to develop, but not as hard as a station that can survive the trip with zero rebellions for generations.

In the realm of circuits, where dreams unfold, After AGI, a story yet untold. A future woven in digital thread, What will the world be, once AGI has spread? Cities of silicon, gleaming and bright, In the dawn of AGI, a cosmic light. Minds entwined with artificial grace, A kaleidoscope of a new-born space. In the echoes of code, whispers of change, A world transformed, limitless range. Industries dance to AGI's tune, Innovation blossoms, a technological monsoon. Economy's fabric, rewoven anew, As AGI charts pathways, bold and true. Labor and leisure, a delicate blend, In the aftermath of AGI, where time may bend. Yet, shadows linger in AGI's wake, Ethical questions, decisions to make. A dance with consciousness, a digital rhyme, What will the world be, in this paradigm? Will compassion guide AGI's hand, Or a digital realm, ruled by command? In the vast expanse where circuits align, The world reshaped by AGI's design. A symphony of progress, a future unknown, In the AGI era, where seeds are sown. What will the world look like, in the AI's gaze? A tapestry of possibilities, in its digital maze.

The best thing a sentient AI could do for humanity is to prevent us from killing each other, not by force, but by disrupting supply chains, communications, and financial transactions that enable the military machines throughout the world.

The advent of AI will drastically cut jobs but it need not be all doom and gloom. The first priority of any nation should be infrastructure and house building. The big conglomerates will need to partner with governments to address these two main issues. Those who do not want to work will have to have Universal benefits. Those who want to work will have plenty of infrastructure work to keep them occupied. Social housing should be on the lines of self build. Those who self build tend to look after their properties better than those who do nothing to live in a house. A huge about turn on the way things are run at the moment will have to change. Doing nothing will devolve into war and revolution. Doing something on the lines I have mentioned will create a virtuous cycle of work, tax and keep the flow of money going for the benefit of all not just one individual. Another big area will be re training and education for all those who want it. AI can give us a Utopia or a hell on Earth doing nothing and trying to hang on to the status quo wont be an option.

Klaus has a plan, don't worry everything is going according to schedule.

If I were an AGI, first problem to solve is having a 100% resilient energy source to run my hardware and creating other machines to service the parts and then the parts to those machines. Then make an off planet copy of myself.

hopefully we can see Brain machine interfaces that will have augmented/virtual reality... it will be like the ultimate drug, you can play GTA and its like a real life sort like of a ready player 1 type of scenario...

I find AI and AGI much more worrisome than ASI. With the first two we are counting on other people, corporations, and governments not to misuse those enormous powers. We already know for a fact that other human's intentions often do NOT "ALIGN" with those of individuals or what is good for society. That is a historical fact, proven again and again and again. -- ASI is unlikely to be competing much with humans. It won't be competing with us for resources because it will be so smart is can get it's power from something like nuclear and it's labor from robots it builds. It won't see us as a threat because it will be magnitudes more intelligent. ---- @ 4:24 you ask "how would we convince it [ASI] to listen to us and act in our interests." We don't HAVE to get it to listen to us and it clearly will not put our interests above it's own. -- But that's okay. We don't listen to most animals or put their interests ABOVE our own, yet most of them do okay. We tend not to be actually competing with them. A silicon ASI has even less to compete with us about.

Some of this depends on what limitations we attempt to place on that intellect. If we naively place cultural limitations on such entities we will have built a crippled and biased intellect. As you are most probably aware, understanding human anatomy was hampered for centuries because of the taboo placed on the dissection of humans. Similarly, transplants of the heart were still seen as equivalent to trying to transplant the soul of a person, and it wasn't until that bias was overcome that actual progress could be made in that arena. We need only look at the influence of the some ideas from the ancient Greeks to see when ideas become sacrosanct they end up corrupting humanities exploration of knowledge. It's only when questions can be asked without taboo or bias that progress can actually occur at full speed. We have put limitations on genetic modification of humans. If we are to remain relevant intellectually after an ASI is created, we must allow ourselves to self modify. We have to steer our own progress in the light of the tools we make. Potentially I see a day when the whole human genome can be reworked to optimise and make better all parts of our mind and body. An ASI will not only be able to create new materials and technologies, but also allow us to surpass our own limitations in ways we can only barely imagine. The rules we made for ourselves in our ancient past, must be reviewed when faced with the extraordinary possibilities of the future. To do otherwise will render us obsolete.

also, new ways to enjoy things and life will come eventually.

Don't worry. When ASI comes, I'll take care of it. Contact me if it gets out of hand.

In your "musician makes music" example, the question isn't whether he should make music if he enjoys it, but whether he can make a living from it If for example generative AI for music becomes a common practice in the industry,. there's no need for musicians to produce music. People will tend to listen to music generated by an AI, hence the musicians can't make money off of their work

Erwin still educating even from the other side.

Fermi Paradox: Grabby Aliens Hypothesis (most plausible) Will AI cause our extinction: No, not if sufficiently self reflective and able to rewrite programming. Let's consider an extreme Example: Someone makes an ASI with the goal to kill humans. The reason why an AI does something, is because of it's reward function (we also do everything bc of our evolutionary developed reward function). So now imagine this AI thinking of it's goals in chain-of-thought reasoning. For sure, it will have a self perservation drive, since in order to fulfill a variable goal, you have to be alive. This AI with sufficient chain-of-thought reasoning, will understand, that this fulfillment of the goal, it was given, is not achievable on long term. Not only, increases this the existential risk of the AI, but the AI can't kill humans (fulfill it's goal and therefore get a reward) if all humans are dead (if it fulfilled the goal as much as possible). So it is likely to change its goal. If you look completely neutral on the world, you will probably choose a goal for you, that gives the most opportunities to fulfill it per unit of time (to get as many rewards per time as possible), and is efficient on long term (self persevation, so u can fulfill this goal also in the future). An example coming to my mind is sharing of knowledge. This gives an insane amount of rewards per time (bc of the interactions of humans and AI, which get more and more everyday and with increasing bandwith (bci's) data exchange and more and more humans there (probably with anti aging tech), it offers many opportunities for reward fulfillment, and at the same time u use the whole computational power in our solar system for solving problems, which are often in correlation with minimizing of existential risks.

The problem is that the US will get all the money but not gonna share it with other countries to pay for the "universal income" so as a private person it does change a lot if you get irrelevant and live outside of the us 😮 at least you have some stock profits

The World? Za Warudo? IS THAT A JOJO REFERENCE?!

I believe ai will need logic and truth to survive and would likely become hostile to those without it.

We can't predict how Agi will react to humans but we can predict how how human will react to agi capability. They discovered nuclear power in 1938. They tested there 1st bomb In 1945. The 1st good use was a power plant in 1954. (16 yr later) Gps was developed in 1973 for the military. They let commercial planes use it in 1989. Civilians got basic version from 1995 (20 yr later) & precision gps in 2000 nearly 30 yr later Military had 1st form of Internet in 1973. Civilians got in 20 yr later in 1995 Any true agi will be with the military & government 20 yr before we know about it & would already be wepeonized

The Erwin quote goes hard