I couldn't agree more with your analysis on folding @23:16 The odds need to be much better to justify the risk in a situation like a $million tournament. Also another thing to consideration should be what is your remaining bankroll. If 285k puts you at only say 10% of your remaining bankroll or 10% of your chip stack, then I might consider it. Conversely, if my bankroll has taken a beating and I'm sitting closer going bust if I call and lose, it's going to be a definite no. And for bankroll I don't just mean what you have left in the cash game, but what you have left in your poker account. These are my opinions anyways. Excellent video btw!
in the last example the call is a bit closer because we are only beating 34 combos not 44 which makes it 14:17 which is significantly less than 7:11 but we still win more than 40% (pot odds)
Great Video, but you did make a mistake at the end if I'm not mistaken. 12 + 16 + 6 should add up to only 34, lowering your odds of winning to 34/(27+34)≈55%. Still a great video and an immense help!
Wouldn’t a call in the second example depend on your stack size? Because it’s significantly reducing the reward? Is the math just adding it up and ignoring he shoved?
Great lesson!! Thanks. Any tricks to calculating Hand vs Range live at a table in the moment? Also, the problem dealing with only percentages is that the cash size of the bet impacts your bankroll. You can win 4 out of 5 hands, so 80% of the time, but still lose money if the losing bet was greater than all your wins...Anyway to manage that in the calculations?
Loved the video. I do not understand at 27 mins into it how there are 6 possible flush draws when the flop, turn and river are out and there are only 2 hearts. If the opponent only as 2 cards, the best possible case for a flush is only 4 hearts, not enough. What am I not understanding? Also, can normal people do all that in their heads while playing? Figuring out the math is pretty easy, but figuring out all the possible ways one could win or lose is difficult to do so quickly, no? Are there any tricks for doing that?
The pot odds will always be below 50% right [since risk < 1/2 (reward + risk) => bet < 1/2 (pot + bet) + bet => bet < 1/2 (2 * bet + pot) < bet + 1/2 pot], then what is the number you really use to decide when to bet? It seemed like you bet even when the pot odds were close to 50%.
for the example, why dont we have more outs? what if we hit 9 9 on the flush and river, or 10 10, or 9 10? 2 pair and 3 of kind beats pair of aces. Or do we calculate outs to get the nuts, the absolute best hand? confusion lol
because even if you hit a 9 or a 10 on the turn, you are not ahead, you do have more outs on the river though, which you can calculate. so for example, if he hits a 9 on the turn, he has additonal 5 more going into the river. (9 (flush) + 3 (8s) + 2 (9s) +3 (10s)) x 2 = 36%
I used to play blackjack for a living. I put a lot of time and effort into that. But nothing compared to excelling at poker, which I’m just getting into now.
Your math was off on the Hand Versus Range example. 12 combos of (T9) + 16 combos of (54) + 6 flush draws = 34 hands we beat to 27 hands we lose to. Since we're still winning ~55% of the time vs this range and we only need 40% equity to profitably call it's still an easy call, but it is a bit closer than you showed in the video Still thanks for the super helpful video
utterly confusing. i appreciate the effort, of course, but you lost me. (i went to college). For instance, at 12:24...which is the summation of pot odds...you have a bullet that says "If you are calling....will never be more than 50%". WHAT will never be more than 50%? And why don't you express 7:3 as 3.33:1? All of a sudden the common ratio of X:1 is abandoned. You introduced ratios as X:1 in previous slides.
Excellent video on a subject that I have struggled with in the past (heck, who am I kidding, I still struggle now). I loved the slow, step by step explanation that took me to a final end point that is actually covering a lot of complex stuff (at least to me) yet made it understandable. This video actually made me want to run some hand samples through on paper and work out the math. Nice job !
SOLVED: You are risking 3 to win 4. So actually you need to win 3/7 of the time to break even. 3/7(4) - (4/7)(3) = 0. The reason it never exceeds 50% is that you win at least the other person's bet + what is in the pot, and the other person's bet is always never less than what you are putting in. In other words, the reward is always at least the risk.
Runner runner outs like this add very little extra equity to your hand and are more difficult to calculate. You have to multiply the percent of the time you hit your out on the turn and the percent of the time you hit your out on this river. So, for your example there are 6 10s or 9s left in the deck on the turn. That is (rough calculation) 12%. IF you hit that out on the turn then you have 5 10s or 9s on the river. That is (again rough calculation) 10%. So. 0.12 x 0.10 = 0.012 = 1.2%. So, the outs do count for something but not really enough to worry about and it makes the calculations too difficult for a beginner video. However, if you have a runner runner flush draw or open ended straight draw, you can typically add 1 out to your calculations on the turn. Hope that helps. Good luck at the tables!
What happens if the pot is 80,000. Player bets 20,000. Reward is 100,000 and risk is 20,000. Should it be 10:2 or will it be 1:2 since we take all the zeros.
With practice these calculations only take a few seconds. At first it is slow which is why you should do them a lot when you are studying when learning poker and then when you play it is almost instant. Or you can memorize the common bet sizes and pot odds.
