2023 Oscar Predictions!! | August 2022 

it will be so refreshing to see Brendan Fraser get nominated for the academy award for best actor in a leading role because he deserves not just because he was black balled for years but because he is a great actor

The way I screamed with excitement when I saw it was 1 hour and 20 minutes long lol

Nothing would make me happier than Stephanie Hsu because she honestly has the best performance of the film

I would argue that Ke Huy Quan gives an Oscar winning performance. He nails the emotional and sweet sides of Waymond as well as the other versions he plays. He shows how he can seemingly transition from heartbroken back to the alpha version. He performed a lot of the stunts for the character and created different body language for all the versions

I’m not gonna lie, I wasn’t the biggest fan of Nope, but 100% agree on the sound. The sound for that movie was insane and it actually did give me chills.

RRR is most important contender now

South Korea has selected "Decision to Leave as its International Feature Film Oscar Nomimation just minutes ago.

Im surprised you dont have EEAAO somehwhere on your makeup/hairstyling predictions, cause they do some really creative looks with Stephanie Hsu's character. Like her doughnut hairdo for instance.

honestly, if Everything Everywhere didn't get any nominations just because they released early, that would be so messed up.

RRR should get an Oscar...what a film🔥

One movie that blasted my mind this year was RRR!

I still think “bones and all” is maybe being slept on. I understand why because of the premise but if you dig deeper it actually has loads going for it. It’s had great screening reactions and was listed by the festival programmer of Venice as one of the Oscar potential films in competition. Its got an early Venice date and then goes to Telluride. It’s also got two Oscar nominees in the cast and crew and an awards friendly date of late November, literally so far all signs are pointing to it being a player , it’s just if the premise can be embraced that’s the issue….genre bias is real for sure in the Oscar’s but it’s not impossible. If it didn’t have a horror element I think everyone would be predicting it more. I think it will surprise people.

Given the feeling I have right now (considering the Festival Season still ahead of us) and past predictions, I'd go with Babylon (Paramount has had an amazing year this year), Empire of Light (Sam Mendes, folks), The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh is beloved by the AMPAS and being a return to his roots might overcome the controversy 3BOEM had), The Son, Bardo (Netflix is now an Oscar regular, and Inarritu's first film since Birdman), The Fabelmans (a crowd-pleasing film with nostalgic vibe and Spielberg behind it) are quite sure. Women Talking and She Said might devour each other's chances since it'll be perceived as films about similar territory - hopefully both will enter. TAR? Maybe, but I think right now Triangle of Sadness has better chances.

Great video!

Glad your considering Pinocchio (Del Toro) in a lot of categories I think it will be “big” and I think there’s a chance that both Pinocchio movies get nominated for Visual Effects

Along with Best Actor, Best Costume Design and Best Makeup/Hairstyling Elvis deserves more oscar nominations. Best Cinematography- there is a video of those amazing shots Best Film Editing- the editing during the opening concert sequence and the build up during vegas rehearsal/that’s all right are amazing Best Sound- A) it’s Elvis B) it has amazing music mixes and edits Best Production Design- the recreation of the real life places and stages are well done and very accurate

If EEAO wins screenplay and supporting actor for Ke Huy Quan it will win best picture. It happened with Moonlight, green book and CODA.

Tar is Todd Field's next film in 16 years after Little Children came out in 2006. I hope his return to film after 16 years would absolutely be worth it especially that it's Cate Blanchett plays the lead role. You can't go wrong with Blanchett 🙌🙌

Daniel Giménez Cacho's past films include Weerasethakul's Memoria (2021), Martel's Zama (2017), Almodóvar's Bad Education (2004) and Cuarón's Y Tu Mamá También (2001). That's a terrific line-up over the last 20 years. If he is great in Bardo, an Oscar nomination would be well-deserved (and long-overdue).

I wonder for this year’s Best Actor race, it could be Best Actor 2009 all over again. Looking back to The Wrestler and that was a tremendous comeback for Mickey Rourke from the same Director Darren Arronofsky. He won Golden Globe and BAFTA and came close to winning. Sean Penn won the CC and SAG for Milk and he won the Oscar. I’m curious because The Whale is said to be a comeback for Brendan Fraser. But also facing competition with Hugh Jackman in The Son. Both seem like they’re going to be fantastic performances. Two things could happen Either Jackman or Fraser sweeps the Best Actor categories. Or they end up winning twice at either GG and CC, SAG and BAFTA and would be an interesting Best Actor race.

Dang, I wanted to make my own predictions video, but you guys make such good points that you pretty much convinced me - and I’m worried mine wouldn’t be all that different. 😅 I agree that EEAAO will very likely win screenplay. Though I have a feeling picture might go to Bardo this time around.

I think the screenplay categories will fill the surprises and snubs expected in a award season. There's a lot of contenders and normally it's where The Academy likes to include critics' favorites that where left out of Best Picture

how we doin boys? Thanks for dropping this today when I have a ton of free time at work, makes the day go by quicker

Que chingón sería ver a dos mexicanos nominados a Mejor Actor en un mismo año. Vamos Daniel Giménez Cacho y Diego Calva. 🇲🇽🙌🏼

YESS IVE BEEN WAITING

You guys are rabidly obsessed. Love it! 😀

It’s so nice to see you guys😄

What about Everything Everywhere in Makeup & Hairstyling? I saw some pretty cool coverage of the woman who designed the many many wigs and hairstyles of Michelle Yeoh, in coordination w/the makeup and costume teams, and it feels like both the kind of story that plays well AND the kind of crafts nom that's surprisingly integral to how the story succeeds

just wanted to give brother bro a shout out. that hair ooof

I Love these guys!!!

no eastern Asian woman has ever been nominated for Best Actress- they BETTER nominate Michelle!!!!!!!!!!

My list: 1. The Fablemans 2. Top Gun: Maverick 3. Bardo 4. Babylon 5. Everything Everywhere All At Once 6. The Son 7. Avatar: The Way Of Water 8. Women Talking 9. She Said 10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

The Northman and The Sea Beast are really underrated imo. The Sea Beast is really good movie, it should be nominee on animated feature.

Re: visual effects in top gun maverick, I read that the F14 sequence has visual effects as there isn’t a functioning F14 so that’s not a real F14. Agree with Zen McGrath. Wish Gold Derby would add him. His performance is crucial to that film imo having seen the play. I really hope The Batman score gets in as I love that score.

I would absolutely cause property damage if Everything Everywhere doesn’t get a best picture nomination.

40 minutes in and I just realized it is 1 hour and 20 minutes long lol! That’s good content.

I’m surprised of how everyone is disregarding EEAAO, for costume design.

What do you make of the My Policeman ensemble taking TIFF's performance award? I don't know what to do with it! 50% of the previous winners of this award have gone on to win Oscars, but this is such a small film and didn't seem like a legitimate player. And yet they chose its' ensemble over Women Talking, The Fablemans, Empire of Light, etc. Very confusing.

One Night in Miami really only had 4 buzzy performances and that got in so I don’t think it’s really about size that much. Plus Marriage Story had 5 crux (3 Oscar nominated, plus Ray Liotta and Alan Alda) plus the fun little family roles mixed throughout and that still missed. So I think it’s more about the SAGs taste than the size

Just FYI: Daniel Giménez Cacho is like the Christoph Waltz of Mexico. He is an amazing actor that unfortunately hasn’t received much attention outside our country. But he is THAT good.

I understand the comparison you guys make between Grand Budapest Hotel and EEAAO, in my opinion (and I know its unpopular), Grand Budapest Hotel is a superior movie. Don't get me wrong, I love both. I agree with you though about EEAAO. It has to be nominated, it's one of the best movies so far this year, but we always get unpleasant surprises from the Academy, and since it released so early, that might hurt the chances of the movie later in case very good movies release meanwhile.

Nope not having enough visual effects? I understand if you think it’s not gonna get nominated (I personally have it in for now, but recency bias), but that movie has a lot of visual effects going on. The UFO alone is super inventive before the ending twist, not to mention the monkey flashback in the beginning and middle of the movie.

You guys are way underestimating Elvis for Picture IMO and Austin Butler I think will be in the winning conversation for sure.

This is dumb lol but, all 3 of Olivia Colman nominations also got a nod for screenplay, the correlation is they support each other, Olivia is at her peak with perfect script and the script would be highlighted too because of the way she killed every lines, would Sam Mendes have a chance at getting screenplay nod? Because I feel like it would be a very meaty screenplay

What do you guys think about "Argentina, 1985" an Argentinian movie that will premiere on Venice this year? Does it have a chance in international film¿?

Why did you put "White Noise" so low in many categories? Have there been any negative Reactions from Testscreenings or what happend? Also Netflix in the last few years has gotten two Films into the Best Picture Category

Alejandro González Iñárritu First Movie is also my favorite, Amores Perros with Gael García Bernal, totally Recommend it!

We all know Avatar 2 is definitely gonna win an Oscar for Best Visual Effects next year as the first movie won an Oscar for Best Visual Effects. Probably the easiest category to predict so far

I didn't realize Sarah Polley directed Away From Her with Julie Christie, and was nominated for screenplay. Produced by Frances M, look what happened with Nomadland and Chloé Zhao.

I definitely think Angela Basset for Best Supporting and the entire ensemble of Wakanda Forever are going to be a huge threat. There's a lot of emotion tied to this sequel and once they start promoting, no one is going to be able to ignore that. The bond was already there with the first film, but the pain of losing their lead actor made them more closer this go round and apparently it's felt all throughout the film if the trailer and Comic Con appearance is any indication. Angela Bassett seems to be driving this film and has a lot more room to showcase what she does best....Drama. I would definitely place bets on them with those 2 categories.

Why is Official Competition not listed in International Feature?

QUICK MOM… TheOscarExpert just dropped new Oscar’s prediction video 🍿🍿

I think Bardo's chances might not get affected by Iñárritu's problematic decisions but he's best director nomination might. When Bardo is released all the reports and informs about his working ethics will come to light again, with an scandal that would direclty affect the way he DIRECTS, I would have him just about to leave the top 5. I don't think predicting him getting snubbed rn is smart but predicting him winning again might be too one track minded

Top Gun Maverick was a great film! Gave me everything I wanted watching something at the cinema.

If theres anytime for a block buster to get some nominations, its this year. Top Gun Maverick is probably among the best block busters of all time, with its excellence in the technical aspects and the sheer power that you feel walking out of the theater. Also with the oscars wanting to be more "audience friendly", I just can't see them not nominating the biggest movie of the year.

that Salo reference LMFAOO

Practical effect are more impressive than cgi, are they not considered part of the visual effect character?

I liked top gun maverick and think it will get a best picture nom but I don’t think it should honestly. Liked it a lot but I doubt it will make my top 15 of the year

What about original song?

16:59 “Tom Hank is not real” 😂😂

Haven’t seen the broker but gonna watch for Song Kang Ho. Call me crazy but I actually think not only should he have been nominated for best actor in the parasite year but he would’ve been my choice to WIN ahead of Joaquin Phoenix. Maybe I only say that though because I don’t think what he did in Joker topped his performance in The Master🤷🏽‍♀️

And Best Original Song?

U guys also RRR from India.. there are 2 lead roles... They lived in characters.. and so much best visuals and bgm .. u can experience a best cinematic universe ..

I feel like Thirteen Lives should at least be mentioned, there's a chance it gets the editing-sound combo

Can't wait to see Todd field's TAR. Cate Blanchett is undeniably one of the greatest actress ever.

I'm confused as to how/ why glass onion would be in adapted screenplay when knives out 1 is original, what's the difference? like what is knives out 2 an adaptation of?

And original song?

I am surprised that Top Gun is still at the top of your list. Is it possible that Tom Cruise gets a nomination for Best Actor when the award season kicks off?

37:16 Cate is a SAG, BAFTA and Critics' darling, I doubt that with her in a lead role and (for sure) with another great performance, she would be deniable for the award giving bodies especially SAG. I'd stick with the first four picks but maybe, I'd put Danielle Deadwyler on the fifth spot. I said this to you boys and will always say this to you, never underestimate the power of THE Cate Blanchett, as you always do.

1:16:03 I don't know how you got that information but Saint Omer is not a documentary.

I think that you overestimate EEOAO's chances while you underestimate Avatar's. Don't get me wrong, I love EEOAO but I don't think that it is a lock. A nomination would have been a Win itself. It is "too weird" for the Academy voters and there are no big names behind it. While, Avatar 2 is by a bigger studio and there are bigger names behind it. Not to mention how they loved the first film. Also, after watching that trailer, I believe that She Said will luckily flop. It will be this year's Bombshell at best. I also think that Cate Blanchett may win her long awaited 3rd Oscar and personally, I won't be disappointed if she does. Viola Davis is a strong contender too.

I would give Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, and Stephanie Hsu all Oscars based on what I’ve seen so far in films this year. They all gave fantastic performances and absolutely deserve nominations at the least

I know you guys are tired of my comments at this point but I'm so in love😩😩😩

What’s this confidence in Fraser? The Whale doesn’t look like very academy friendly as it’s quite bleak and off putting so his performance won’t have the broad appeal to win. Someone like Butler or Jackman with more broader appealing roles and films are more likely to win.

1:15:59 I agree. And i think Poland isn't going to submit this movie for International Feature. I mean they can because it's Directed by Skolimowski who is known by not only Polish people but i just think it's not the right fit. In my opinion by far the best movie, that Poland must submit is The Balcony Movie. I recommend you watch it. I believe it's on HBO. It's pretty experimental but fucking great. I'm not going talk about the plot... just watch it.

Isn't the composer of Empire of Light Thomas Newman

I agree on Brendan Fraser above Hugh Jackman, I’ve always thought Brendan Fraser as a great actor, he probably wasn’t appreciated as much because he was known for “Popcorn” movies. I feel rn that Austin Butler is the front runner, these are my reasons: 1) he’s playing a real person and a beloved figure at that 2. IMO he did a better job than Rami Malek, I think his biggest threat is Brendan Fraser, I feel it’s gonna be between those two. I would Love if Daniel Giménez Cacho and Bill Nighy get some recognition.

I generally agree with most of the predictions here but I think even at n. 2 you guys are severely underestimating Michelle Yeoh for actress. I think that even if Margot Robbie’s performance is “better”, the narrative behind Yeoh’s push is much bigger than performance nuance especially compared to an already Oscar winner

what about original song?

RRR for Oscar 👍🏻

Just gonna say this. Thirteen Lives absolutely deserves a nomination for Best Sound. It's just as good as Top Gun Maverick's sound.

This is a MOVIE. I want popcorn

I agree with most of these predictions - I just think you guys are underestimating Blonde and Ana de Armas…i feel like she’ll have a similar path as Kristen Stewart

thank you for rooting for dolly de leon 🥺

What about Armaggedon Time?

I’m really excited for White Noise, the novel is fantastic

Two things I am happy in the best actor list is that Austin butler because his performance in elvis was amazing and as an indian I am really happy that Jr NTR for RRR also made the list

I'm REALLY interested in seeing what movie Iran submits now, considering that they can't submit Holy Spider since it isn't technically Iranian, they definitely won't submit No Bears after jailing Panahi for like the 3rd time, and it seems like they won't go for Leila's Brothers since they've preemptively banned the movie from even playing there for bullshit political reasons.

Is Thirteen Lives just dead? You’d think a Ron Howard directed movie about one of the biggest rescues mission of this decade would be a huge deal, but it just kinda dropped on Amazon and nobody is talking about it. So strange. I don’t know why they even bothered making it.

Keep an eye out for Banshees i reckon boys, i've already got a couple $100 on it at $36-$1

I’m surprised there’s no mention of NOPE, despite a lot of people saying it’s a masterpiece.

No Best Song predictions?

Netflix postponed rustin and the killer. So they are really confident in knives out onion glass. I wouldn't underestimate it.

All that Banshees shares with the play is the title. The play was about a writer with failing talents. Martin has said so that it only shares a title

Is there a Nope review coming?

What about timothee chalamet and Zac efron for best actor or Harry Styles for supporting actor and I love your video No hate on you

No Jeremy Pope for The Inspection?? could be a possibility imo

I think A24's The Inspection could be a surprise awards contender.

the Wikipedia page says that all quiet on the western front is in English not German

I think because of how controversial she is, I think that's a reason why Whoopi hasn't been showcased much in the Till trailer.