I find most of your prediction to be accurate and credible. The only error you made was in Iraq, where you labeled the Sadrists as “Pro-Iranian”. While accurate during the Iraq War, labeling the Sadrist movement as “pro-Iranian” is not accurate in the early 2020s. The Sadrist movement has become an Arab nationalist movement that is hostile to foreign (read Iranian) meddling in Iraq. The mass resignation of the Sadrists from parliament was aimed at bringing down the current government. When it failed to do so, the empty seats were allocated to the largest remaining parliamentary bloc (which was pro Iranian). This stunt gave the Iranians control over the government after they suffered a historic defeat at the polls in 2021. Sorry for the wall of text. I am curious, what do you think will happen in regards to the ongoing protests in Iran ?
Thanks for the catch! I’m not sure about the Iranian Protests, to me they seem pretty similar as the Green Movement. Maybe some more small Iranian reforms to come?
@@wildviper A good source that you could use is the Institute for the Study of War. They have a daily update on the situation in Iran and Ukraine. In addition to being well-researched, they also provide a nuanced analysis of the future of these topics. In regards to the Iranian protests, I think these are different from the Green Movement. The Green Movement sought to bring about gradual reform within the context of the Islamic Republic, whereas the current protests have managed the traditional ethnic and regional divides to create a revolutionary and secularist political movement. GANAA is another good Iranian centered polling group
@@wildviper I'll make sure to keep following your future content. It is rare to find someone who makes good content on Alternate History. On this platform, it is usually a genre used by alt-right individuals like Monsenior Z to misinform young people about history and legitimize their ideologies. Something that is useful about good alternate history is that it informs viewers about why a particular historical event occurred the way it did, and how a complex set of factors (culture, politics, geography) molded and shaped the development of the world.
