AI and A-Bombs: Is Everything A-Okay? | GoodFellows 

This was a fantastic episode for showing the biggest danger of AI: The lack of understanding of basic concepts by so-called experts. The first thing I noticed was after John asked FeFe a straightforward question about LLMs such as might come up in a Data Science interview, she could not answer it. The second thing I noticed was a pattern of anthropomorphizing all AI/ML as AGI in terms of both capabilities and threats. Thirdly few, if any, of her assertions about the technology are statistically testable, therefore not science but belief. To her credit she was entirely right about ChatGPT being an amzing teacher. These kinds of biases are very dangerous. I work as an ML Engineer, responsible for making AI/ML products just work. I see this overpromising and underdelivering all the time either in the form of promises of a thinking machine with super powers or promises of vast sums of money due to using certain algorithms. Nobody asks "How do you know this thing works?". Then they are surprised by racial bias or aggressive text or any number of flaws due to preventable model and training issues. The stakeholders are promised that AI is an infallable thinking being rather than just another computer program. Garbage in, garbage out. The most embarrassing and deliberate fraud in this space is that of large firms such as Microsoft and Tesla promising that their AI is a "safe" AGI that can be regulated. Not at all like those evil thinking machines that are self aware and will take our jobs. (Have you ever actually tried to automate labor? It is much more difficult than advertised. Those projects have a high failure rate). These large corporations are rather shamelessly attempting to protect their purchased AI assets from competition from open source alternatives. ChatGPT is not the only LLM, and there are new ones being produced all the time. The fraud of claiming an AGI where there is none, could be catastrophic. For one thing, models are very easy to poison. An unscrupulous state actor could do a lot of harm in multiple ways. Social Media engineering and DeepFakes are just the beginning. Expect to see some wild stuff next year. Lastly ML/AI may be the atomic bomb of these times. We do not have an AGI now, but the nation that builds the first one will by default be the leading world power. Assuming that something like the singularity happens quickly after the first AGI is created. Every other nation will be bringing knives to a gunfight. Pausing this escalation to make a few billionaires richer is probably the most irresponsible thing our nation could ever do.

I have the impression that Fei-Fei Li and many others who excel in technical disciplines don't have a very profound notion of what "intelligence" is. As far as I know, no computer can write with Shakespeare's genius or propose the unification of electricity and magnetism as did James Clerk Maxwell...That is intelligence, and it is rare, but uniquely human.

Good to see John as passionate as can be this episode.

She thinks like my academic coworkers (they have rejected me as a colleague due to my conservative views) here in California. Government, government, government is the answer to every question. They simply assume their fellow professors are in lockstep. That thinking, not AI per se, will be what makes the technology dangerous.

Niall: You are making a distinction between crooks and campaign operatives?

Yes, we need a philosopher on the panel. She understands this 100x better than economist John and others. Economist doesn't yet get it and neither does the historian and military expert. They assess AI has something humans control, the threat is that at certain stage AI controls. As humans we cannot be trusted to safeguard AI. Lots of ethical issues.

From my experience with Army mechanics, I would not want any of them to be running our federal bureaucracy. Maybe the generals at the Pentagon are assigned a better class of mechanics. Every one of my visits to an Army motor pool (Maintenance Facility) was characterized by complaints about the lack of spare parts, of assigned operators, and poorly trained operators. Those guys were never happy.

I love it when HR comes across as the reasonable one of the regulars lol 👍🏼

AI makes mistakes, constantly. ....that's a major point of concern.

We will definitely get dumber the more AI replaces previously required thought. It's true of basic calculators, so it will certainly be true of AI. But we'll be more productive?

Bravo! I have a rather biased opinion of Mr. Truman's orders: my father was "on the boat" awaiting the invasion when the festivities came to an end. I prefer the ending we got.

This panel, plus or minus one, is the best thing that ever happens in intellectual discussion.

A great discussion! It would have been good to dedicate a part of the time of the episode to delving into the life and times of Oppenheimer, and parallels today with leading luminaries of AI.

18:02 "... might transport the individual back to a pre-Enlightenment state of bewilderment..." I suspect that neither Henry nor Niall get out much amongst the *average* citizens of the globe.

Love listening to these. Brilliant job as always

Fantastic, immensely interesting and informative as usual, thanks Gentlemen 👏🇦🇺

A super discuss today. As usual best thing I've listened to all week. Thanks !

21:30 Completely agree! ChatGPT has been a tredemous gift for education. Regardless of its drawbacks, it is like having an always-available tutor to you, helping you save time with small, intricate, often time consuming details of a subject and explaining them so well.

In order to create an AI scientists should understand what real human intelligence is. I don’t think science understands today what human intellect is and how it works from the physiological biological cellular point of view.

Wow. Knowing that males are more aggressive than females, it was so great to see this woman hold her own against men. No, I like and appreciate all the "GoodFellows" and get a lot from these episodes. Huzzah - Fei-Fei Li!

Fei-Fei was a great guest. Thanks 👍

Fei-Fei Li makes a good point with regard to Human dignity and agency, we have already seen in the covid crisis how human power structures imposed their ideas on the population, I can only expect more totaltarianism from a robot. Of course some will argue that AI would not ignore data as humans do but I am aware that AI is programmed and by humans. Very interesting discussion, thank you all

I'd love to see an interview with PERUN - who specializes in defense economics and who has been providing a 1 hour weekly analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now this would be insightful and informative.

As always a true delight, thank you gentlemen (and lady)....."one and all". Peter Vancouver Island

John Cochrane's first question is answered very clearly, by the giant, George Gilder, in his book, Life After Google. AI does NOT have that which human are graced with: creative genius. AI will always rely on inputs and sustainability from sources beyond itself. AI in and of itself is no more dangerous than a knife in a draw, even if now its become AI capable: sharpening itself, altering its blade, serrations, sharpness and such; it still requires human application as a tool.

Great talk with Fei Fei, we are in good hands. If Unit 731 could do what they did without AI, it is good to hear there are some protections.

Apparently Oppenheimer actually said: it worked. He thought of I am become death sometime after

Chat GPT has learned to be dishonest - likely through the political biases of it's trainers... I am somewhat encouraged that prof Li is more concerned about her students developing critical thinking skills rather than regurgitating the politically warped agenda of our indoctrination system (as chat gpt tends to do).

I am one of the proud benighted MAGA caste that former conservative elitest, David Brooks, condescended to address in his op-ed piece. I may only have two double-major masters degrees from two non-Ivy League institutions, but I'm smart enough to see where the self-annointed eggheads in DC, the leftist media, and oligharchic corporate masters are taking this country. I never liked the boorish rhetoric of President Trump, but I strongly supported 90% of the policy initiatives he tried to pursue, especially his appointments of legal textualists to the Federal Judiciary. If the new GOP base he created hands him the nomination over DeSantis or Ramaswamy, so be it. Biden can't/won't run, so the conservative populists may have a shot at arresting the current slide into wokeist oblivion. God help us if they don't!

One should continue the topic of AI with Fei Fei. Again too notch discussions!

Every year at this time we wring our hands over the dropping of the Bomb... if we hadn't I for one probably wouldn't be writing this quip and some of you wouldn't be reading it. My Dad had just finished up three years in the ETO and his unit was getting ready to move to the Pacific for the invasion of Japan. When he heard the Bomb was dropped he recalled to us, "I just might survive this war!" Let's face it countless lives were saved by dropping the Bomb American and Japanese... the question will a nuclear weapon be used in the next 78 years? I think The GoodFellows answered that in your debate. The horror of using nuclear weapons keep normal people from using them... the key words...Normal people. The AI debate is so very hard to put thoughts to because it's not tangible and it will be hidden to most people kind of like Electricity we use it, but never really see it, only its results. This is a topic I'm sure you will revisit time and again... as always good topics.

Hey Neil...I have a case of Academic Elitist fatigue. Take a walk back over the pond with a lead brick necklace. Cheers!

Before we go too far down the "Wonderful Future" path that availability of knowledge will improve popular understanding, how has the internet literally at the fingertips in the form of smart phones improved literacy and reading rates? You no longer need to own the classics of literature or go to a library to read/consume them. So therefore, every schoolchild should be thoroughly well read from James Fenemore Cooper to Mark Twain or John Milton to C.S Lewus. Are they? Not in my experience. That very availability has, if anything, DECREASED the rate of uptake in the general public

Our problem is that almost all humans think Descartes was right. They're 400 years behind. Or put differently, most people are Yorkshire grandparents: they know what they like and they like what they know.

Who decides who the best human is? I already suspicious of that sentence itself

Could not disagree with Dr. Chochrane more - if AI is not regulated to some way - then it will be used as a tool for exploitation. I already design and use AI in advertising professionally - it’s almost unfair when combined with social media. Also - would have been nice if someone argued against the dropping of the bomb - there is an argument for that.

A good one 👍. Keep it on.

Great episode! Thanks to all.

48:38 This is what the ending of Oppenheimer suggested to me as our likely future...a chilling admission from H.R.

Can AI be held accountable for anything?

Letsget AI in human resource departments and see what happens. How about the DMV or other state monolithic agencies.

How do you discuss the surrender of Japan and neglect to mention the entry of the Soviet Union in the war on 8aug45?

The closer point is backing off of atomic weapons which we didnt do. She's right about the human drive to expand and expand and expand.

Steal from one: Plagiarism! Steal from many: Research! Now we have "Steal from everyone: AI!"

Great content, can you please make a podcast already so I don’t have to keep the RU-vid video playing in my pocket?

Fantastic discussion

Great and broad conversation. Loved it..

I never thought I would see the day that John threw in his lot with Marge Green. Dr. Lee was very good guest, and I would love to hear from her again.

47:15 The Chinese don't follow any international rules, do they? Why would it be different when it comes to nukes?

good day a.i. how do i lose 10 useless pounds? a.i: "cut off your head peasant."

Alan Alda does a series for scientists about how to talk human.

Thank you for recommending Christopher Lasch's _The Revolt of the Elites_ -- it should go alongside Sowell's _The Vision of the Anointed_ as required reading for political scientists everywhere.

Fei Fei brings a point about the quest for knowkedge, like chemical weapons research, or dare i say gain of function testing. That went real well.

What was the New Yorker article mentioned about the bomb?

50:16 2034? Going to have to check that out.

Favorite quote from the episode is at 6:26. I'll take validation for my career path wherever I can find it. 🙂

Good all ways, glad of *YOUR* videos.

Thanks, dudes!

Johns exactly right- this is not intelligence. And no we dont need philosophers. If you cant just turn the model on and it starts making sense by itself (eg starts solving problems without prompts) its not intelligent. If i had to tell my worker what to do after he completed each micro task, i would t call that intelligent. Even if ai evolves to this point, i would still argue that we should reserve the word “intelligent” for humans. Apes and Ai will never have a human soul…when we apply that word to them, it just degrades to us to that lower level.

I think that it's worth thinking about how while we are advancing by leaps and bounds technologically, we seem to be backsliding rapidly socially in terms of personal relationships. If anything causes us to go backwards it won't be the science, it will be the lack of meaning and purpose in society.

I have used both BING CHAT and BARD. Neither seems to be able to do simple math, even after multiple prompts. Is that being addressed? LLM may be good with suggesting the next word, but what good is it if it makes up stuff (where there are gaps in the knowledge base) to throw at the user, without informing the user that the response is dubious?

Damn. 😂. That was a rough one. But awesome as always

It's so interesting to listen to these US / Northern hemisphere perspectives over the equatorial fence from the South. Where we phased out and banned nuclear weapons, and are protected by Coriolis force if a large exchange did break out in the North. And very different philosophy towards China. There is so much less fear for the future here. Except environmental of course.

John is wrong, the US designs the top tier chips, then gives them to TSMC to make, TSMC exists because of the US. Do they think Taiwan built this industry?

Nothing against Ms. Li, and the other guests they’ve had recently, but I don’t like this new format. I like the original format with just the “Goodfellows.” My $0.02.

Great nuanced debate on AI, thank you. More on Geopolitics please especially the Ukraine problem and CCP nuclear escalation and it’s impact on the Indo-Pacific. I’m from New Zealand please talk about us too. Such a great show - Thanks Again. ❤😊

Kudos on a wonderful interview! Let's not lose sight of the fact, however, that experts in A.I. who are also native English speakers is as rare as hen's teeth on one of Neptune's moons. Falling back to second place had CONSEQUENCES. American IT. in every sector is 90% #H1BTech. We lost the tech battle. That ship has sailed.

Somebody really needs to find a copy of The Forbin Project movie. Even though it is more than 50 years old, it is an effective movie about an AI which gains control of nuclear weapons. The last 5 minutes are truly chilling.

Your guest is the true definition of artificial intelligence.

She's been in the USA since 1988 & still has such a thick accent?

Terrible analysis of Truman's decision to use nuclear weapons. The time frame of blindly assuming that there would be an invasion scheduled for 1 November 1945 on Kyushu is hypothetical. Yes teenagers were training with bamboo spears to repel the invasion and the Japanese had correctly guessed the invasion beaches. But Japan was also starving, the Russians had entered the war. The sticking point was the demand for unconditional surrender. This was modified and the war ended. No one expected the atomic bombs to end the war. Secretary of War Stimson was about to go on vacation. Our intelligence people were convinced that Japan would surrender with the modifications. The issue of staving American lives is of course paramount. Hiroshima is case study of decision-making and making sure the Commander in Chief is informed of all alternatives. How much did Truman really understand about the bomb? Planning an invasion and estimating casualties is a normal part of war. Would the invasion had taken place without the bomb but with modified conditions? Debatable. The danger is that Hiroshima and Nagasaki "proved the utility of nuclear weapons as a component of "shock and awe." This needs discussion.

Hello Hoover people 👋

"Are they just regurgitating facts, or are they critically thinking?" Quoting this conventional wisdom, she misses the post-modernist toxin: Are they thinking so critically that they've stopped believing in facts? AIs lack embodied experience of reality. One massive potential problem with AI, is that it will diverge from reality if exposed to too much theory.

The reason why Japan fought on was the demand for unconditional surrender this is why nuclear bombs was used against Japan

Run for president HR!

It's a large language model. But true "meaning" escapes it.

Thank God for JC. I hate the word 'we' too. It is the pivotal idiom of the we say because we think & you do because we say politico-beurocratic complex. People who start sentences with phrases like: "I think it is really important to recognise the fundamental (insert platitude of your choice)' have spent too much time sitting on committees and too much time with other members of the 'we say' community. They are the same people who use the seemingly passive: 'there is a really important conversation to be had about how we manage (insert socio-cultural 'tool of containment' of your choice) when what they mean is pay me some more to sit on a committee and deliver more hollow platitudes like this. As the great man so eloquently said: "You have a very benevolent view of how regulation works in a political system'.

Just so you don't get too unnerved by GPT4's omniscience, the oinly difference in the replies to my question "What does Niall Ferguson like to eat?" was that GPT4 managed to come up with a snikde dismissal: "Niall Ferguson is a historian, author, and professor known for his work on economic and financial history, rather than his culinary tastes." Anyway, I'm glad he doesn't like MacDonald's. Apart from that, it's such a relief that China can be discussed as the enemy it obviously is. Tnat would have beeen unthinkable not too long ago. . Finally, Cochrane's remark about the left being eager to extend voting rights until the "wrong people" start voting reminded me of Latin American revolutions in which the Criollos were liberal compared to the Spaniards but always drew the line at land reform, which meant to hell with the vast majority of the population. Okay, I'll shut up, great podcast!

58:29 South Park!!! love it!!!!

Missed point: AI increases the likelihood of extreme scenarios, both positive and negative. We, as humanity, can navigate the positive ones...but what about when an extremely bad scenario, made possible by AI, occurs?

We can’t say it was “right to” drop the bombs on Japan. It’s not right, but it was basically The Emperor’s decision. After hitting Hiroshima first, it shows the stubborn stance he took. No surrender and had we to threaten Tokyo after Nagasaki to reel him in. The absolute horror is that it was all civilians who were killed. All innocents…not multiple fronts of Japanese soldiers. But, Japan had Asia in its grips. U.S. forces would’ve had fronts all over Asia, killing at least 200,000 of our soldiers. The Kamikazes are a good indicator of their zeal and actual belief they could conquer the U.S. Inevitably, had we not dropped the bombs on Japan, we would have had a massive multi-exchange war with Russia in years to come. With Russia’s (and the U.S.) knowledge of The Bomb, it has hindered its use again. That means I’ve just said 120,000 innocent Japanese were unwillingly sacrificed (plus decades of death to cancer) to avert a future, much larger war. War is so horrible, that even writing this to try to justify the upside (another horrible reference) of Truman’s decision is sickening. Ever notice that anytime history is discussed, in order to give other person an idea of the time frame you’re talking about, you cite which war was just fought somewhere?

Stimulating discussion, thank you all.

great conversations, guys -- yes, have Dr Li back, that was very interesting, I listened twice. On the A-bomb: HR suggested a future episode about nuke proliferation. How about imagining post-(this)-war Ukraine, with Russia both a bigger proliferation vector than it has ever been, this time supporting Iran's nuclear bomb (if it isn't doing so already), AND an ISIS/AQI type terrorist threat inside the Ukrainian territories it claims it annexed. Does Ukraine have to apply Iraq Surge style counter insurgency in Crimea and the Donbas?

Never miss an opportunity to promote your books NF! The guest's command of English and AI made her ineffective explainer of the subject.

21:11 omg this on education - so good!

Does anyone else think that AI and technology experts are their own hype train? In other words, they underestimate the capability humans have to prevent worst case scenarios of technological advancement? Througout history, for instance, humans have consistently harnessed innovation and prevented doomsday scenarios.

2:27 Wow I didn't know Eliezer Yudkowsky has a PhD now.

The greatest irony of all time would be a scenario in which nuclear war is the only one that allows for a total destruction of all infrastructure and therefore AI along with it yet leaves remnants of humanity sufficient to rekindle and repopulate.

An interesting group of people. Are these shows done on a monthly or a quarterly basis?

I understand everyone is busy, but why cut off a guest so early? Every episode we act as if there is a time constraint where there is none.

Many people in China are already subjecting each and every citizen and visitor to China to absolute Individual grading system, with which the system will treat them accordingly. What are you doing about that? Did you discuss this with anyone in China? 🙃

To me there seems to be one main question and the answer to it will tell us if AI will overtake humanity: If you feed all music ever composed from the first tune until, but not including Beethoven - can AI compose Beethoven?

Anyone alive 8 years ago when Self driving cars were about to go mainstream? What happened to that intelligence? 😂😂😂 This is a lot of hot air.

Nice to see some thinkin' goin on in the summer months...

Disagreeing with Ferguson puts you on shaky ground - why do people so gleefully do it?

Why are we not training A.I to shine light into the black box? Probably a bolt on independent, a de-compiler.

What is "go?"

Zuck is not a tech Giant he is an ad-executive

John has a bad habit of interrupting the experts.

The hullabaloo is they don’t know how it does what it does.