Huge 2024 Bike Industry Cutbacks Already Started! 

I'm so sorry about the microphone issues - rest assured it'll be fixed from here on out!

I work in a bike shop in Australia, from what we've seen we've been getting excess stock arriving only now that was ordered over 18 months ago at much higher prices. Shipping and manufacturing delays have left us with an extremely large excess of bikes at a time where we really don't need them. To any consumer, hold off for a bit, the bikes will go on sale and you'll get a better deal. This will also help us as it will allow us to clear excess stock quicker and then hopefully after the "panic" stock has gone, the industry will hopefully return to normal.

Karma is visiting! Though I appreciate R&D and producing safe bikes but charging as much as $14,500 dollars is just wrong

I was at a Specialized dealer yesterday and the salesman told me I should hold off buying a new bike for a month or month and a half because prices are going to drop substantialy.

Great job, love this type of content. It’s bad when a bike cost 8k and a motorcycle is cheaper.

I feel bad for the bike shops that overpaid last year and are stuck with expensive inventory that they’re taking a loss on.

I live in Vancouver, Canada, and an LBS was selling at Santa Cruz e-bike for $18k. The industry or parts of it became delusional.

The funny part is that the fox 36 is more expensive than my car suspension!

I live in Taiwan about 10 minutes from Giant's largest factory, and I can confirm that they are panicking and have made quite a few layoffs. I work closely with Trek here in Taiwan and in the past Giant made most of their bikes, but as of recently, Trek has been making them in the States and shipping them out to Taiwan instead. That said, I live 20 minutes from Merida's HQ and factory, the same place where they make Specialized bikes, and I even talked with the next-in-line President who states that Merida has had a steady incline. Something to point out as well, the main two competitors for city bikes in Asia are Giant and Merida. Recently Merida has started taking over, and the amount of trash Giant city bikes is building up. I'm sure the entire cycling industry will take a fall. Still, I'd say that is mainly due to the more prominent manufacturers such as Giant and the over production of city bikes in most of Asia and even Europe.

It seems like the bike industry isn't "hurting" but more or less returning to how it was before the pandemic happened.

You would think I would keep up with this ...but I don't. I hope local bike shops still have a strong business going forward. The last few years of good labor and sales were a deserved boost after what has been decades of squeaking by. Many shops are staffed with good hearted people who sacrifice to make the jobs work for them. Best wishes for all in the New Year and beyond!

Josh loving this type of content, not many others on YT discussing this important topic.

As with any overvalued industry, which cycling has definitely benefited from being, I'm happy to see a correction. The price for the same bike over the past three years has skyrocketed.

Very good points and thanks for putting this together for those of us that aren’t following this as closely!

A new “standard” every year has been used to justify the increase of prices every year. News flash: you’ll be just as fast as the bike from a few years ago as you would be on a brand new 8K ride. It just won’t be as fun to look at.

Great information! Cannot wait for the next article!

It’s been an over charged commodity for a while now. They are cutting supply so they can keep prices jacked up.

There's an implication in this that Giant is somehow being "sneaky" or underhanded here, I don't see it. Giant for all intents and purposes IS the bike industry, and since they supply bikes and components for lots of other brands it would make sense that when there's an oversupply issue like now that they would have less demand for making those bikes. Any industry increases and decreases production naturally at different points, it's normal and part of any economic cycle. No company announces they expect lower sales in the upcoming year, it's not like they're excited about it. If the point is that the industry is slowing down, then I agree with it, but there was an extra implication in the message that Giant is hiding something. They're doing what every other industry is doing right now...Most folks who wanted a bike during the pandemic eventually got one or gave up, and now lots of folks have new expensive bikes that should last for a very long time. I expect things will get back to normal, not go away. I don't see doom and gloom here, we were in a boom cycle, now it's back to normal. I think the market for parts and accessories will do very well in the next few years as all those bikes will need them.

Great update.

Unrelated, but it's so great to see you getting figter and achieving your goals!!!

Thank you for this

Thank you for keeping us all in the loop of what is going on out there.

Honestly, it's not just looming potential recession. It's also the fact that the bike market is saturated. You had every Joe, Dick & Harry picking up an e-bike (and some regular bikes) due to covid lockdowns, etc. Now everyone's got a bike in their storage with lockdowns basically over, the Joe, Dick & Harry that bought those bikes ain't riding anymore, so no need to buy any new bikes.

We need more of this type of content. 👍🤙

My local Specialized started their 25 percent sale earlier yesterday (official sale starts Jan 20th, according to the sales person).

I appreciate this type of content a lot keep it up . See you at SMMTB

I know Ty. We used to ride and build bmx trails(dirt jumps) around the foothills of Los Angeles.

very informative 👌

Good video. I see things a bit differently. While I do think the industry is no longer in the pandemic bubble, things aren't necessarily so bleak. People are still buying bikes. The sport and the products offered are still awesome and the pandemic exposed piles of new riders to mountain biking - for some of those riders MTB was a pandemic distraction, but for many it helped them truly embrace a new activity. Regarding the Specialized news, they tend to be a pretty ruthless operator - that has been their way of running business for a while. To hear about how many paid ambassadors they have, they may have been looking at the perceived ROI for those athletes and scrapping the program may have been an easier decision than analyzing each individual ambassador's effectiveness. Specialized did spend $15Million on a new facility this week too (I don't think that seems like an overly worried businesses' action). As for Giant's actions: during the pandemic suppliers through the entire chain became extremely demanding: like asking their customers to prepay for product rather than having payment terms. I suspect Giant is trying to force those suppliers back to pre-pandemic payment terms (big companies, especially in Asia tend to push very hard for extended payment terms). Giant is a public company, are very smart, and not about to have their financials look bad due to a supplier's payment policy. The industry is realizing the craziness of the pandemic is over, and it does bring challenges. Those challenges largely relate to an industry that had learned to run extremely lean (minimal excess inventory) over the previous decade and is now being faced with too much inventory for their logistics to keep up with. I really see this as a frustration for the big bike brands, not a catastrophe. Some smaller brands will get flattened because retailers and consumers can go back to being very picky about the brands they want. There will be some discounting (a good thing to help reduce inflation) but don't expect to see 50% off as a common practice - more like 10% to 20% off on select models. On a positive note, I think the incredible popularity of cycling during the pandemic helped open more eyes to cycling within government & land managers. I think this will help the development of more trails.

So this is the 3rd vid I've seen on this issue. Can't help but think of the frenzy that posts like this will generate. Great way to motivate those on the fence to pull the pin and buy. Almost like it might work.

Well, we knew that there was going to be a return to lower bike sales and a lot of good lightly used bicycles out there. What needs to happen is treat both your shops and customers well and most everyone will prosper. It really is that simple!

As someone who made a good chunk of money buying and selling used bikes the last two years I can confirm that used sales are noticeably down already this year.

I'm glad Specialized and other companies are trying to find efficiencies to avoid a reactive move on down the line. Add to that, a lot of companies across industries added sub-par talent over the past few years during the crazy talent wars. A small layoff can mean a change in strategic direction and/or cutting lower performers. Either one, it makes sense. I continue to appreciate the great work Specialized has done and continues to do to serve the cycling community.

Everyone bought a bike during the pandemic, the industry geared up to meet the temporary demand. They were quick enough to raise prices to scalp the customers, Now the adjustment. Bike prices are silly, components even worse. No one will pay that now with an oversupplied market. Not to mention a possible economic downturn on the way.....

You know what I'm seeing. A lot of people who thought they were mountain bikers in 2021 now want to sell. Bikes of all prices. New sales are going to be rough with so much excess building with all that inventory hoarding on top of all the used sales. Let's remember in 2019 backcountry used to sell end-of-year frames 30-40% off. In my eyes things look considerably worse for a bike store next year than pre covid

Not just the dealerships, the bike businesses were charging over what they were valued at, this is exactly what they get, now they can feel what the consumer felt.

Saw this coming a mile away, just thought it was gonna be sooner. I sold three old 1990's bikes I couldn't sell for the life of me like hot cakes. Trails had tons of people, that fell off a cliff Long ago.

Interesting stuff, thanks for making the video and reporting on it. The covid bike boom was fascinating for me to watch as a consumer. I sort of understand why it happened in hindsight but it's not something I would have predicted.

Times are tough for many people, and exorbitant bike prices create an even greater expanse as to whats affordable and what is not in the Budget.

Maybe they wouldn’t have this issue if they weren’t charging $8000 for bike technology that is a decade old. Prices are absolutely ridiculous.

As a bike mechanic in a local shop, I too I'm paying a lot of attention to this situation.

Quick, informative, and finishes by saying "go outside"? Subscribed.

Waiting eagerly for the deep discounts!

Very good info! I work at a trek store an the just cut everyone's hours with no overtime

May I add, I feel sorry for bike shops, they didn't have bikes when needed and now they have bikes and no customers. Maybe bike companies should have invested more in their best friends not useless ambassadors mooching off. Best to all of the bike shop owners.

Wow interesting times these past few years. I’ve been wondering when this was gonna happen, I being a moto and mtb guy thought this was gonna happen a year ago. Interesting how things play out. Good job! One other interesting thing I see is that racing moto at a amateur national level has never had more turnout. The national races are filling most classes in days. I guess the die hards are still in it pretty hard, who knows

Excellent insight! Very very helpful information while I ponder orders/stock and such for the small bike shops I work with.

Not a big surprise. Business is always going to have ups and downs just the nature of the beast. When will the public start seeing it impact pricing? I keep hearing about warehouses stocked. Let's get them out there!

True, I put one of my bikes up for sale with high quality upgrades for a really cheap price, 1,000$ less than what others are selling the same bike with stock component’s and It hasn’t sold in 2 months so I decided to just keep it

I’ve been scratching my head during the whole covid period when manufacturers are paying influencers on IG, FB, and YT and there was no over $1k inventory in shops. Why do that??

My wife and I just had our giant hybrid bikes fully serviced and some accessories added at Martins bike shop in ephrata, pa. We bought our bikes there in 2009. These bikes have been excellent for us. We looked at buying new bikes similar to our old one's-but we are considering getting ebikes as our knees become less able to take the wear and tear of riding.we are 64 and 63 and still in good shape for biking.our bikes are the cypress dx model (2009). Martin's has added a gigantic new building and test ride area that is really impressive and they have every imaginable type of bike and many ebikes to choose from. Their service area and parts inventory is large and well organized. I cannot imagine that there are many bike shops in the country that can offer more than this bike shop !! If you are a bike enthusiast, this store is certainly worth a visit !!! They have always been accommodating to our needs.

Stanton Bikes in the UK (smallish company selling steel and ti bikes) went into administration recently as their investors got cold feet. I guess this isn’t a coincidence.

Just got a list of about 25 models that are on sale at the shop now. Things are going to ramp up quick.

Great content,planning on buying new mountain bikes for my son and I,guess we should wait a little and see what happens,maybe save some money.

Specialized did a huge sale in Fall 22. Got my son's bike for 40% off. That tells me they had way too much inventory.

Great article. Might want to buy a spider for your mic, the shaking of your table is audible because your mic is connected to your arm directly.

Well, prices of bikes like specialized, trek or giant are currently so high I'm not even surprised.

bike sales fell off a cliff, it is dire, shops were expecting the faucet to be turned down, but not off completely... support your local bike shops they are all hurting right now, plenty of good deals to be had!

From my reading, after Covid struck in 2000 a lot of ppl started cycling to avoid public transport, etc. Plus, many people started riding recreationally. Here in the Bay Area on weekends, I’d see hundreds of newbie riders, sometimes whole families, in the local hills. The bike dealers couldn’t keep anything in stock, and new models were backordered for months. Naturally, the industry concluded it had been presented with a vast new market and geared up accordingly. This went on in other places too, like the United Kingdom. So many people started riding to work, then-PM Boris Johnson announced a $2B program to facilitate cycling in the largest cities. But less than a year later, with the reductions in Covid restrictions, it was noticed that ridership was experiencing a huge downturn. And that has continued to this day. (Acting on complains from car commuters, the U.K. has begun dismantling the newly constructed bicycle lanes in London and other major cities.) I can say for a fact, the number of recreational riders in East Bay hills is no higher than it was before the pandemic. Why the big drop-off? Some cite the rise in cycling fatalities, and how dangerous new riders found the roads to be. While I think that is partly true, I think the greater cause is how unfamiliar present-day Americans are with exertion, discomfort, getting sweaty, looking up at a long hill and feeling their heart sink. We are not talking about the Peleton crowd here, but having said that, their numbers too are in decline. Maybe the only winner to come out of all this is the e-bike. And I’m all for it if it can extend the riding career of an individual. But going by what I’ve seen in recent years, the pandemic was a blip that stimulated cycling for a short while, but the addiction our society has acquired to staring at screens for hours on end, before and after work, has resulted in a lifestyle even more sedentary than it was in the 50s and 60s. And that is a sad thing for all of us, not just the industry. I’m a boomer, an old geezer, but still I ride four times a week. But the riders I’m seeing around me are getting more and more middle aged. Where is the next generation? The only bright spot on the scene now is the rise in young women riding sport bikes at serious velocities on the local back roads, and often solo. Some of them are kind enough to say hi as they pass me.

The new 2023 Nissan Versa costs $15k, the new 2023 Chevrolet Spark costs $14k. A bike that costs $15k-$16k is laughable. So, now there is more technology, engineering and manufacturing cost on a bike than on a car??? The bike industry has been scamming for so long!

My local Trek shop just cut all the fat with staffing. If you're not working 3 days+ a week you got cut. To be fair, we had a bunch that worked a day a month to keep their discounts.

I'm wanting to upgrade to a Trek Fuel ex 5 soon. I hope this helps me out in a few months.

saw 2 of my local bike store get bought and now they are GIANT stores

So after giving up on getting a bike during COVID shortages I started looking again for a gravel bike. I don’t race, I ride for fun, so I don’t need a high end carbon frame. However I would like my bike to have a nicer component set. Seems like most of the big guys (trek, giant, specialized, etc) are trying to push everyone into high priced carbon fiber frames. Salsa doesn’t even offer an aluminum warbird anymore. To be honest it’s a big turnoff to see brands pushing you towards their carbon frames that start at 3500 to 4K And up. I just want a high spec aluminum bike! During COVID they must have been able to get people to pay whatever they asked.

Great video! Really showing what is about to happen to the economy in 2023 from the bike manufacturing perspective. It pretty much shows the economy is preparing for sinking.

Used bike markets are getting flooded with “getting rid of bike that I got during lockdown…no time to ride now as things are getting back to the previous normal” This is driving depreciation in the new and used market.

Excellent share.

i will say, i did not see the bike shops with the Christmas inventory like in the passed. i'm still going to need parts. just trying to find spokes is now a pain in the wheel.

I would say something sinister is going on with Giant or Specialized. They're just getting things back to normal after an insane 18-24 months. What's happening shouldn't surprise anybody to be honest. I have a group focused on used MTB gear on facebook. Things are getting back to normal there too. I had a guy sell a 2018 Yeti SB5.5, last spring, for 5300.00. I sold mine in October and got 3,400- same bike. What I'm personally having an issue with is parts availability. When i say that, I mean if I want it NOW, its almost impossible for me to go to the 3 major LBS's (Trek, Specialized and one retailer with 4 locations in Denver) near my house and ge tthem. In the last 3 months this is what I looked for and couldn't find locally: 42CM drop bar, 40t chainring, 11x42 cassette , BB30 Bottom Bracket, and various tool parts. 2 or 3 years ago, i had no issue finding these sort of parts at the LBS. Now, I cant.

If the end result is that there will be a price drop . . . I can't say that's really a bad thing for most of us. I had a Specialized Epic that I sold and haven't replaced yet. Since summer is still a. good five months off in the Americas, I'll see if an oversupply ends up working in my favor.

I've been custom-building and servicing high-end MTB my entire career (18 years). 2020 was great, but even '21 and '22 were still tough unless you could actually get bikes. I had '23 pegged from the beginning of covid as the earliest point that we will really know where we stand. Shops that aren't primarily focused on high-performance service work that makes a bike run perfectly will continue to struggle. We've hit market saturation and consumer fatigue. The bikes are more capable than most folks can make use of. The tech is as complex as most people want to deal with. The quality (for the most part) is good enough that most bikes/parts aren't randomly failing any more. A consumer can buy a good bike (GX or higher) and just service it every year, and it will continue to run very well. I regularly perform $1K service jobs, but the bike is flawless and that's WAY cheaper than a new one. The gains in new bikes will continue to shrink, because the geometry and suspension is beginning to plateau. The main thing they can compete on now is details, frame protection, serviceability, refinement, etc. The big jumps are over, we've found the limits of wheel size, reach, wheelbase, travel, etc. There are now bikes that are big/long/slack enough to accommodate nearly any consumer on the planet. The corporate brands will have to go back to competing on value, and the little guys will only make it if they are doing something truly special/unique. Shops that are only focused on sales will get squeezed tighter and tighter as the demand drops. Meanwhile, direct-to-consumer brands and online parts sites continue to duke it out to the lowest possible margin, shrinking the amount available to pay a decent wage (wages come from margins), making it harder in general for the industry to attract capable, long-term employees. '23 will be a massive shake up and I expect to see big changes as everyone tries to figure out how we are all going to coexist.

I think you're bang on! Prices here in the UK are ridiculous! In April of 2022 I purchased a Titus Road Runner endurance bike from Planet X. 9 months later, that bike has had a price increase of £620! My carbon gravel bike has also seen a price increase of £600 in 17 months! I personally think they're trying to claw as much money in as they can, before everything really goes 'tits up'? The greed displayed by the bike industry is quite shocking!

Well the Specialized thing might explain why suddenly Heather Munive is back on a Giant out of the blue. She was sponsored by Specialized if I recall.

i actually just had a friend become an ambassador for specialized. Nice carbon stumpjumper with axs

I do appreciate your efforts to give us this information and keeping us posted of what’s going on. 🤙

Interesting! In October I purchased a new MTB from a nearby Bike shop. A month and a half later the shop abruptly closed its doors, going out of business. I couldn't believe it! The nearest shop selling the same make of bicycle is an hour drive away, and is directly related to the shop I purchased from. Same name and I assume the same owner. I do not wish to drive an hour to have my bike serviced etc. It seems like the industry is definitely going through some unfortunate changes. Now I am forced to find a new local shop to trust with my new, expensive MTB. Very disappointing to say the least!

I hope this causes the price of electric bikes to drop. However, I do think the demand fr electric bikes is still high as they are a fairly new product in high demand. Maybe some smart marketer will pick up some of these surplus inventory bikes and couple them with kits to turn them into electric bikes.

There have been some crazy deals for sub $500 bikes. Some were 50% off! But don’t expect the same thing for more higher priced bikes.

Josh in regards to the big S cutting their workforce. If I remember correctly a lot of these brands also brought on a lot of talent and ambassadors during the pandemic. Not to ruin the excitement and drama of the industry but nothing crazy or out of the ordinary is happening, at least nothing like the pandemic. Let’s not forget that these companies or the whole industry ramped up manufacturing as well. The way I see it everything is just settling down.

Figured there had to be a breaking point; prices can’t keep going up forever if incomes aren’t.

So many companies thought the lockdown booms would never end. Such a shame some were so shortsighted. Added to that the fact that influencers just don't make brands any money, these things were bound to happen.

I worked at Specialized in Morgan Hill. They are famous and consistent with large layoffs. They over-hire when the company is doing great but when sales are bad for an extended period of time everyone working there knows whats going to happen next. I know because it happened to me. They target and fire older and high salary employees first.

Well I'll just save up for something nice this summer. Thanks

8% layoffs. I wonder what % of new hires came the last couple years. Is staffing simply back to pre shut down levels?

Our local Trek dealer said they had very slow Christmas sales season,and service is they’re best way to survive. I am not planning on purchasing a new bike, but in a few months prices WILL be coming down…in my opinion.

Bike companies whine about "decreased demand" when most bikes are always out of stock, and they've jacked the prices up 20 percent over the last couple years. They deserve this.

Dude! I have wondered about that. What's going to happen to smaller "boutique" brands that have grown a lot over the last 3 years?

People decided to stop buying bikes because of how expensive they got. A bike I paid 2k before pandemic was 5k. I decided to not buy until they return to prepandemic prices.

Bikes, especially EMTb's are just sooooo expensive now and have priced the average joe out of the market. Inflation and APR has also gone up and has added even more pain to the costs of owning a new bike. I'm looking to buy a new bike but the costs and finance are just killing it for me.

Well I am going to let out something I thought for I while... paying $5-7k (and more!) for a semi-professional bike and know that some of the profit goes to fund a college drop off guy/gal doing the van-life "working" making videos and "testing" equipment that has been given to them so they can advertise it (bit of a conflict of interest there you 🙈?). This while I am stuck at work and barely can ride during the weekend paying off or saving for that holy grail bike. Get real, it wasn't not sustainable, it was a joke and a spit in the face to the majority or regular people that love the sport. Sorry for the rant but it was long due.

"Let's make bikes cost more than cars! This strategy has no downsides, we'll make record profits forever because bike buyers are all dentists and will pay whatever we want to charge!"

"Extending invoicing period... endure this off-season together" That about the same as going to the bakery this winter and asking is it is okay to pay in march. We all get that manufacturers have to balance their staff and sales, but these large scale layoff rounds can potentially hurt more, by giving certain companies a bad reputation. I wouldn't be suprised if Specialized even went so far to push their 'old' employees to post 'thank you' stories on for instance Linkedin...

Thank you for the valuable info. Bike industry obviously does not seem to be a good place to invest in at the moment. You are cutting it as a finance youtuber as well :)

Some of the issues we are seeing is the rebound of the supply chain. It’s truly a weird market. The economy is “trying” really hard to have a recession, but demand is still quite high for hard goods. In late 2021 and in early to mid 2022 Raw materials and electronic parts had long lead times. Toward the end of 2022 you saw a lot of backorders filled. Cars started being delivered again as well. There’s a lot of inventory now, but I think it’s short lived. We’ll see what happens

Yup, just more companies experiencing production / climate ( no not in the weather) changes. How will each of them adapt. I wonder how many ramped up during Pandemic, and now things have slowed, pandemic / lockups over, are now over staff/over supplied?

It was a matter of time...knew it was coming...patience when buying moving forward.

I’m curious about how I should navigate as a consumer. I’m looking to get back into cycling, actually looking to get a mountain bike and a road bike. How do you think this is going to play out? Will there be good deals on bikes and I need to hold off? Or will they keep prices the same and just reduce inventory, making it harder to find bikes? Thanks for any tips on whether I should buy now or wait.

I've been waiting for 24 months for bike prices to become normal, 2020-2022 they inflated prices twice, and now no one wants to buy it, and so do I.

What e-bike direct consumer should I buy ? On emtb?

Been riding my Giant 18 years now and would not mind seeing prices come down a little, or a lot.