I Watched 99 Videos with Peter Zeihan in 2022 - Spoiler: he talks a lot about China 

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Peter "Argentina is gonna be a superpowa trust me bro" Zeihan is my favorite tarot card teller

I have heard mixed opinions on Peter Zeihan, I don't know enough to have a solid and informed opinion but a lot of the old blob of geopolitics experts have been too wrong on many issues for me to really trust them. But it is interesting to see how people differ on interpretation of facts given different outlooks. A good video as always M7*.

Zeihan's take is quite interesting. I went back and re-read his earlier books and noticed how prescient he was about Russian actions and intentions way back in 2015. His take on demographics is well researched and I find his arguments there convincing. I'm having a hard time believing his arguments about the US being the rah-rah greatest country over the next 30-40 years, but at the same time I appreciate that he took the time to dig up economic, geographic, and obscure data from so many sources. His arguments about power production and consumption in the US and Europe don't pass the sniff test yet, but he just might be right. Interestingly, listening to him and Ian Bremmer spar though has been quite informative and I want to see the two of them do it more often.

I would never ask Peter Zeihan for military advice. However, his 30,000-foot assessment of current world events does seem awfully right. We're going to find out just how right he is within the next year.

U read his book 'Accidental Superpower'; hope you didn't pay for that book :P That guy's many if not most short term predictions regarding Rus have faltered. He's got some good knowledge... but no one can predict everything :) Also, PZ seems to underestimate the enemy.... that's a never never !!!

Peter is a disciple of Dr George Friedman (Geo political futures) who is more nuanced in message but they tend to view things along similar lines, projections can go very wrong based on assumptions of the past that things will play out similarly, Asianometry is a very good channel about the difficulties of semi-conductor tech, well worth watching.

Among all the geopolitics analysts that i have watched, Peter zeihan is the most logical. 🙂

12:15 lool I really enjoyed the slick editing choices on this video as well as the informative commentary. It was both educational and entertaining. 5 stars! --an American

Great video, as usual. Love it.

It seems funny people calling a guy writing books about the end of the world "too optimistic"

Excellent video and thank you for reviewing Pete's videos. He get's into trouble when he gets into military topics. It's not his core skillset but it overlaps with it. I do consider him an expert on demographics and some economics subjects.

"Blue Water Navy" means you have the ships, training, and infrastructure to carry out naval warfare far from home. China may, in theory, have the ships for this - but it does not have the infrastructure, the training, or the experience. One, of many problems China has, is its supply ships are considerably slower than its war ships are are not themselves suited for long endurance missions.

That was an excellent analysis. A far more objective look, free of American jingoistic attitudes. Refreshing!

I find that his statement of the facts is usually fairly accurate, and he has a broad base of knowledge, yet his analysis is often too superficial and reductionist. It always rings hollow to me.

I am an American from the United States and this is what I think of Peter Zeihan. I experience strong reactions to Peter Zeihan and a lot of it is negative because he is one of those people that come off as being self convinced that they are in all cases the smartest person in the room. He never leaves, or offers, a listener or reader any room to question or even disagree with anything he says whether it is his premises or conclusions. I don’t know a lot about the topics he speaks about but his style of communication leaves me feeling cautious about the things he is says, especially his conclusions. which many people point out that in hindsight prove to be wrong. This doesn’t mean the things he talks about and says are valueless. He does make me think and expand the horizon of what I think about when I hear what others, especially politicians say and that’s a good thing.

Love hearing about Zeihan from perspective, super interesting!

the range of a US Navy ship is not dictated by its internal storage, theres this thing called underway replenishment which extends that range to whatever you like. The Chinese Navy just like their Army for that matter is untested and that is what Peter is really talking about. Having ships is not the same thing as knowing how to operate them, especially in combat.

I think we forget the AIM 9 technology is from the 1950s. You don't need the latest tech to be dangerous.

I like this style of your videos, it works well with you.

I’m a big Peter fan but I very much appreciate your insight on the subject as well. Thank you.

The problem with semiconductor development is that it is very expensive, multi decades endeavour to the point that the expected results of almost like a gambling. There's long list of nation that started long before the Chinese that failed spectacularly ( India, Malaysia, Japan, etc ). Even USA had to maintained the technological advantage at a great cost which they distributed with it's allies. So I had skepticism if PRC can follow it.

This channel is absolutely top notch.

Very interesting video. I would like to hear your take on geopolitics.

As someone who has followed peter’s work for quite awhile I thank you for providing alternative interpretations on this changing world! I would say that the Chinese are on a trajectory to put them on par with the US, but given the points Peter highlights on things that are going to change dramatically in china, one would have to assume the development arc will change dramatically as well.

An interesting perspective but not overly compelling. Peter’s argument is based on how everything is connected and those relationships, it’s wise to stick to your strengths by focusing on the military aspect but without undermining several of the branch arguments Peter makes it feels like things potentially could be different with out a firm foundation for why they would be different

I would like to make one mention on technology. You can make tepid gains if you start from a low point, but it takes longer and longer to get to an equivalent point the closer you get to bleeding edge. They might’ve gotten to say 75% in 25 years, but it’ll take another 25 to gain 10% or 15% As for engines they might be matching thrust, but they are sacrificing maintenance times and reliability greatly to get there. Jet engines are among the hardest technologies to master and are a great indicator of where the Chinese are in their journey to technological supremacy.

On the military electronic front, I was surprised that sensors were not mentioned. This is more broad than just "AD converters". These are the critical eyes, their sensitivity and accuracy is key for range superiority, and these are things that you cannot replace with even the latest MacBook. What do we know about Chinese sensor technology?

I humbly request you to do a video about the new AMCA wind tunnel model that was revealed this week 🙏 And also please do an update video of the South Korean KF-21 too 🙏

Are you sure they’re far behind on signal processing? They’re ahead in 5G and seem to be doing well in 6G research and patents. I’m assuming there’s a lot of convergence between latest gen cellular radio and active radar.

I must confess that I am one of the viewer of both channel. I think RU-vid algo sometimes is terrifiying accurate. Peter Zeihan is usually right about most major trends but a little ahead of time. Which makes him seems a borderline fortune-teller and a nut...Peter is also non-partisan and neutral in most analysis.

Ziehan is like a confidence man - very good at creating a confident-sounding narrative, but oversimplified and not meriting the confidence with which he delivers it.

Your spot on about our biases. We will have to wait to see how accurate the predictions are

Thank you for making this video! Peter is good at pointing out problems but as you mentioned at least some of his conclusions are questionable. I agree with your analysis on the balance of power/technology. One area that I have not seen being addressed within this context that I always wonder about is industrial output incase of a conventional conflict. It is often said that WW2 won in factories as much as the battlefield.

I was looking for informed counter-arguments to Zeihan's just the other day, with little success. Thank you!

nice counter arguments I do find some of Peter's predictions and data spot on and viable some of his points I still have some doubt on

I have found Zeihan to be very well informed and statistically astute, but his perspective is highly US oriented , with a tendency to minimize US disadvantages while maximizing their advantages and doing the inverse about the opposition(the infamous "a couple of destroyers can stop Chinas oil supply" comes to mind"). If one keeps that in mind, Zeihan is interesting to watch and can furnish one with the particular perspective on the data.

It’s so hard to break out of that sphere of “AMERICA NUMBA 1 WILL ALWAYS BE NUMBA 1!!!”. It seems like especially with military tech the RU-vid algorithm actively steers you toward that kind of content. You’re the only military aviation guy I really watch and yet I get so many suggested videos like “NEW F35 SHOCKED THE RUSSIANS” or “AMERICA PROTOTYPES 6TH GEN FIGHTERS!”. It’s really tiresome. Thanks for remaining objective

I was interested to see this video, because I did a bit of a dive into Zeihan myself. Suddenly he seemed to be everywhere, and I wondered where he came from. Also as someone into politics, his seemed... odd. So I wondered what his credentials were, and the answer turned out to be very interesting. You say he has a lot of professional experience, but in what? His prominence seems to arise entirely from his books. So I wondered what he studied. It turns out, Zeihan studied at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky. But if you look up the school, things get strange, fast. The first premises of the school were in an unused army barracks, in 1954 IIRC. And the first head of the school was previously the Kentucky university's chair of Political Science; but his bio says he went to work for the OSS during WW2, and then returned to his university chair. That's curious enough, but it gets better. The first permanent institution in the Kentucky campus was built in 1972, a 16-story tower, and at this time the second head took over, a military officer also pictured at the National Armory. That was 1 year after Zeihan was born. At this time the CIA was busy paradropping South Vietnamese agents into North Vietnam in Operation Tiger. So it very much looks to me like Zeihan is the child of some CIA officer who returned to the US to set up a new outfit in this flash 16-story building, possibly even that second head of the school. That "professional experience" Zeihan has was in a private intelligence outfit, or more likely, "private", as in an outsourced contractor for the DoD or CIA. One of Zeihan's videos I watched also provoked my curiosity, because it took place in a tiny room that seemed to only have a handful of other people in it, a rather private sort of affair. Looking at the other videos of the host, they were a law firm that was also trawling for legal work busting unions. So this seems very much like the kind of tiny private law office that handles some rich family's capital. Now, I admit I've done a good deal of interpolation in connecting those dots, but I don't think I've done anything unreasonable. Zeihan has got Langley written all over him, and he's even probably 2nd generation CIA; his bio says he is an "orphan", conveniently enough*. So I think you are quite right to say that he is telling Americans what they want to hear, and specifically, rich Americans. I think he is an actual CIA propaganda front. Funny what you can find on the internet these days, eh? I've written all the above from memory, but anyone is free to do the same sort of research I did, it all comes from publicly available info. * Coincidentally, Zeihan was born at just about the time that the Pinochet regime was murdering Leftists and having their children adopted by decent, right thinking people, so that's another possible origin for him.

Your channel is much more informative, and useful.

That didn't age you well. 1 year later and look at the world.😂 So much for the Peter principle.😂

IMO... It is Americas bases that make our navy "blue water". Supply ships come from nearby bases, for US. For China, they cannot project far into the Pacific. Their bases in Pakistan and Djibouti are easily cut off.

Thank you for this video. As much as I would like to take Mr. Zeihan's videos to heart I'm skeptical.

Love it!

Can you yalk about on the next video Yhe full detailed info about T 14, T 15, T 16 Armata, Kurganets-25 and Koalitsiya-SV

A big difference between you and him, that you did not discuss in this video, concerns economics. Your economics has a solid base on the question of the national control of the entire sipply chain and the importance of military-industrial-scientific complex. His economics boils down to demographics. In 2022...

But that is very benefitial for China to have people like Peter Zeihan who tells that China will crumble itself nothing to worry about. But yeah Peter is overconfident in so many areas, and more importantly there are so many areas he doesn't even aware of (or pretends to be).

I THINK YOU ARE DOING EXTRAORDINARILY WELL IN YOUR OWN ANALYSES. 👍🏽 Development of ONE’S OWN consciousness and one’s own Individual ability to Perceive, Analyse, and Understand the REALITY existing at the present time, so that You, as an INDIVIDUUM, one unique Being, can determine the Facts (TRUTHS) THAT ONLY FLOW FROM THE ACTUAL PERCEIVABLE REALITY, is the most important consciousness work everyone should perform. So, your track record is very very good. Thank You for your hard work. Salomè. Mögest Du in das Licht, der Wahrheit, und dem SEIN der Schöpfung leben.

Thanks!

More than 1 video? You poor thing, you have my sympathy. He’s got books to sell.

I like your vast knowledge on technology. I don't think anyone else can be as factual and neutral as you.

Thanks for commenting on Peter Zeihan. I'm far from being an expert in the areas he and you cover. I tend to agree with his analysis of the world situation. However like you I think his prognostication and time line predictions leave a lot to be desired. As am American it is comforting hearing we will come out on top but that makes me extremely skeptical.

I watched one video and discovered I had far better things to learn elsewhere.

Great video, well spoken and well analysed.

Very interesting discussion. I do appreciate the time and analysis you've put into this. No doubt the US has a number of advantages in agriculture and energy,. but it's foolish to think the US has a slam dunk advantage every where. Admittedly, we are our our own worst enemy in some areas due to the social convulsion taking place now.

1st millennium 7 video i watched 👍

I was searching for opposing viewpoints to Peter Zeihan's predictions on RU-vid, and like you, I found some of his forecasts to be optimistic for American viewers (and I'm American). You made some excellent points about the Chinese Navy's advancements and their potential to improve their semiconductor and processor technologies. However, there seems to be a crucial aspect of Zeihan's predictions that you overlooked. He contends that the aging Chinese population will struggle to produce enough young workers to sustain their economy and mount a successful military campaign against the United States and its significant allies. China's One-Child Policy and the mishandling of Covid have created a population distribution crisis that will only worsen over the next two decades. Unfortunately, this is a problem that cannot be solved by policy changes alone. The crux of the issue is China's aging population and ineffective leadership, which outweighs any progress they can make in improving their military might. While I welcome a healthy debate on this topic, it seems that China's demographic predicament is a far more significant obstacle than their military advancements. Still it is important to remain skeptical of what one person can predict: While Peter Zeihan's geopolitical predictions have gained a following for their bold and provocative nature, there are several potential faults with his prognostications: **Overemphasis on demographics**: Zeihan's approach to geopolitical analysis places a significant emphasis on demographic trends and natural resources. While these factors certainly play a role in shaping the global balance of power, they do not provide a complete picture of complex geopolitical dynamics. **Simplification of complex issues**: Zeihan's predictions often rely on simplified, black-and-white explanations for complex issues. This can lead to oversimplifications and overlook important nuances that may impact the outcome of his predictions. **Inaccurate predictions**: Some of Zeihan's past predictions have been inaccurate or overly optimistic. For example, he predicted that the European Union would collapse by 2020, but the EU remains intact. **Ethnocentrism**: Zeihan's predictions sometimes reflect a strong bias towards American interests and a dismissive attitude towards other countries and cultures, which may lead to misinterpretations of global events.

Finally, somebody with real knowledge of the subject chiming in. I like Peter zeihan and he makes a lot of good points. But his core fundamental assumptions are wrong, for instance he keeps insisting that the us is "pulling out" from the world, which is total BS, given we still have over 800 military basis worldwide and adding new ones on a regular basis, not to mention increasing presence in SE Asia, Middle East and Europe lately with the russo ukrainian war.

underestimating your opponent is dangerous, and I think regarding Chinese military capabilities (not demographics or economics) Zeihan is underestimating them.

Thank you

Spot on

Can you do a reaction video, reacting to videos about military technology in RU-vid while debunking myths and conspiracies

I greatly enjoy when two smart people come at a topic from slightly (not countervailing) different angle, the differences can be revealing, or equally amount to nothing. Certain people forget that China doesn't need to match the US like-for-like, it just needs to be good enough and let their asymmetric goals and advantages do the rest.

I'm a Peter fan and your analysis was right on.

the overwhelmingly most important China point in Zeihan's videos is his assertion that China will likely no longer exist as a unified country in the next few years due to severe population decline resulting from large numbers of young men & a dearth of young women. this somewhat parallels an argument also made 20 years ago by Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer in their "Bare Branches" book.

I've been watching Peter for a couple years. It's crazy how popular he's gotten. One thing I can say, that man knows his stuff. Very brilliant and hard working person.

Good video. And you're absolutely right, military tech doesn't require bleeding-edge semiconductors. Interestingly, though, the Chinese have figured out how to make 7 nm chips already.

I've watched all Peter's videos some several times. I also watch many other economists, politicians, religious leaders etc. Anyone that is rational reasonable and aware will not take one person and place his predictions like he is all knowing. I always find it suspect whenever I come across anyone that makes their brand, fame or reputation by constant challenging another person's reputation. If you have your own findings, predictions and specialities, then write papers, write a book, get involved in business, politics, and organizations. Build your own following off your own unique thoughts. When a person decides to publicly critique and challenge another, it is suspect. Why? Envy, hatred, or the need to one up another? You are a good speaker and easy to listen to. Forget Peter and what he thinks. Just step out there and speak about all the topics, only doing so with your own personal material.

99 videos "by" Zeihan. For a moment, I thought you two shared some popcorn together.

about "brown water navy" I've seen way less Peters youtube, but in 1 he was talking about "brown water" context was diferent. He was refering to alarmists arguing china have navy #1 counting pure number of ships. If you count all this smal ships - you also should deem it brown. Other point - nuclear carier more blue than conventional. China might get there soon, but not there yet

This is a good start to counterbalancing Zeihan's analysis. His conviction that China will "crash and burn" in the next decade is based mostly on deglobalization and demographics and, in my view, he does make a compelling case. However, his belief that the US will come out on top completely ignores the disruptions of climate change. Something his patrons over at the DoD take very seriously.

That's precisely the reaction to Zeihan's videos: 1. OMG Exactly! 2. What? No!

Adam Sandler: Don't Mess with the Zeihan

Is always the Problem with people like Zeihan.: His own Agenda. In Germany we have Podcasts that only discuse the matter of Mill Politics and Iam very thankfull for that, and this channal too.

That's Geopolitical Strategist, yet without having served any administration.

Peter is all over my youtube I don't know why and how even after I disabled as many as recommendations I can.

"Blue Water Navy" means having supply and repair bases globally, in case of breakdown and/or damage. Moving a carrier strike group requires very complex logistic support. Whether it's Army, Navy, or Airforce, logistic support to keep them supplied with necessities as well as recovery and repair of all equipment. China has no fully equiped naval bases to provide global logistic support for its Navy. The US, Japan, France, and the UK (including Australia, New Zealand, and Canada) have access to numerous Naval facilities globally (either their own bases or their allies). It's kind of invalid to use the distance that their full tank of fuel can get them.

ps. Don't know why you would watch 99 PZ videos - after the first handful, 90% of the content of his other videos is pretty much just the same talking points (and same jokes about Millenials etc) just delivered to a different audience (eg. US hog farms, India businesses, etc. etc.).

Z always figures a way to say both sides of a coin flip so he can later claim to be a prophet.

Obviously for blue water navy for global projections / influence, is the aircraft carrier. Of course the warships can go thousands of miles & with refueling can go around the world, like all ships. But we are no longer 19th century where ships are any threats to coastlines, its only the fighter planes that can be brought into the area. On declining China populations, what's not included is the "capability of these people". In 1949, the literacy rate was only 3%, and now 99.8%, with 63% higher education - close to Germany levels. So even with declining population, China which is industrialized would still have huge potential to continue the growth as the population, though smaller (still more than 1.4 billion) is higher educated & skilled and during last decades.

One thing about the Chinese navy that you are forgetting is that all this equipment of theirs is new. They have no experience. They have barely had time to read the owners manual on their new ships lunch list figure out how to fight them.

Glad someone is saying it. The guy has read some history and thinks it's going to repeat. Things change.

Actually Peter Zeihan gets many things wrong... not interpretations, facts. He has a lot of facts wrong. In particular to do with semiconductor technology, situation, supply chain, and ... well basically everything about it. On military matters it's also relatively poor information from Zeihan. He's understanding of military platforms is extremely shallow and particularly with China's capabilities he's estimates are roughly at where China is at in the 1980s to early 2000s depending on what platforms he talks about. The truth is Zeihan is here to sell books and make money. He simply knows what certain people really want to hear and really want to continue propagating.

che fortuna amico, tutto apposto!

My problem with Peter Zeihan is that while the general idea of what he says is accurate, he takes it to an extreme. For example, if China is going to face serious difficulties, he'll say they are going to collapse as a functional state by the end of the decade. The right direction but his prediction overshoots what I think will happen. Another thing I have with him is his estimation that Russia has to plug like 9 different holes they can be invaded through. In a conventional world, this might be true. A peaceful Russia wouldn't need to worry about this. A nuclear-armed Russia doesn't need to worry about this. Germany and France don't worry about fortifying their borders and they've been at each other a couple of times too. The difference is that they have accepted that their days as a world power are over. Putin has not and is still dreaming of the old empire. His economics are pretty much spot on - except - I think he underestimates the ability of capitalist systems to evolve and adapt to a changing environment. Everything he's talking about can go bad but it doesn't have to result in catastrophic systemic collapses. Certainly, the US economy is positioned to be very close to bulletproof. As for Globalization... I think that even if the US has another isolationist period the US will still keep the sea lanes safe to its essential trading partners. NATO and Japan would have the sea power to keep the trade going even without the US. Maybe even get India and Australia involved. (China has been much too bellicose as of late to invite to the party.) The question is whether they think it important enough to do so. America's beef with NATO is that they aren't pulling their weight. If they did, we wouldn't need to rush 10K+ troops to shore up the eastern borders. Russia is a pariah. China is working on it. All it would take is a change of government and this could change.

Peter Zeihan is very much the Andrew Tate of the analyst world, he is popular because he says what people wants to hear, anyone with some basic knowledge on any subject he talks about would immediately know Zeihan is a bullshiter, nothing less, nothing more.

Great video...l like Peter but he really is way too positive about the future of America, the world is insanely complex...America will do OK because of its historic advantages and momentum but other players will also do well too.

I'm with you Otis.

Great to hearing an opposing view when it it is based on logic. Time will tell

Zeihan gets paid for telling people what they want to hear. I rather watch 99 videos from you than 1 from Zeihan

When Peter said that China is going to invade Taiwan by having all their soldiers get on fishing boats to sail to Taiwan, and suffer a million causalities crossing the Taiwan strait in the process, I just lol'ed.

A slight correction on a point, which is not that minor to me, many people often comment that Zeihan says things that most Americans like to hear, about how great the USA is and will be and that they basically can't screw things up very easily - this is why he is so popular with soem viewers. While as a Canadian, who is also a North American, Zeihan is pretty negative at times concerning the future of Canada, without saying so in so many words, he implies that we will be essentially a declining resource colony for the North American trade zone - perhaps not anything new there, but definitely not what I am wanting to hear!

zeihan has a funny way of suggesting he is being moderate andcareful about information, while also suggesting major future event will absolutly happen as he predicts A lot of these things are up to variable factors and chance....

What Zeihan lacks in accuracy, he makes up with confidence. From the way he describes future outcomes, he'd make a great Calvinist. Zeihan is well versed on the data and current trends; however he doesn't cede any ability of any nation to adapt or alter course to overcome any of the challenges he identifies....or make bad policy choices compromising the advantages they have. That being said, many nations do have an impending demographic collapse, and the proposed climate change solutions will accelerate it.

You have my admiration sir! Watching that many videos with fair weather Peter and having to take yanks constantly asserting that Russian technology is 30 years behind the USA.. I don’t know how you do it .. the average American ignorance of what nationality most inventors are is a good indicator of the state of the western public. Now the USA are fabulous innovators welcoming many inventors into the USA and commercialising their brilliance.. alas Russia seems to excel in inventions but is terrible at innovation to commercialise its vast pool of talent

On the high end microchip topic, it should be noted that more than 90% of the Ultra Pure Quartz necessary to make them comes out of a mine in North Carolina. If the US wanted to make it a controlled resource...

when it comes to processing power... 20 nm compared to 100 nm(human hair is 80,000 nm thick) isn't a huge difference in the room it takes up (in say a missile) it will be a bit more power hungry, but it will get the job done. 10mn scale for processors is for phones, tablets, micro drones ect..

Im ex US Navy and a retired airline Pilot. Seen a lot of the world and we both know the US news and media sources are not doing a very good job presenting truth from around the world. I agree with you 100%. You have to understand we have a lot of elite academic and also “influencers” who have zero common sense and the believe they can want something bad enough that fact are irrelevant to their personal reality. Remember we have about 450,000,000 million people and it guarantees a lot of opinions that may or may not be remotely tied to reality. China will absolutely surpass the U.S. and it’s Allie’s unless the US takes the economic war China has been waging for 30 years and unless the U.S. makes it a priority to jump ahead in technology….. the U.S. will lose the lead in advance technology

All good points, except it minimizes/ignores the potential impact of Chinese demographics and the existing downward trend in Chinese GDP growth that suggests they may fall into the 'middle-income trap' (especially when you look how fast their advantage in labor costs has dissipated) on the ability of China to continue 'catching up' with US etc. in chip-making, etc. China has a track record of several failed ventures into high-end chip manufacture, and the cost of maintaining and supporting the massive naval fleet China has been constructing is going to be enormous (the budget to build an aircraft carrier is quite modest compared to the cost of running and maintaining it over decades). I doubt that China/CCP will 'collapse' as PZ predicts (and almost certainly not within the timeframe he suggests), but I think there may be severe problems facing China is realizing its dreams of global military power projection capability. Just look at what happened to the USSR quite rapidly and unexpectedly...

Chinese Navy might not be blue water in Pacific Ocean, but it definitely is Blue water in the Indian Ocean. It's a matter of perspective.