It's Actually Awful 

Other big issues in the olympic races are: 1. Held in summer there's a good chance for high temperatures (Tokyo, Rio etc.) 2. There are only 3 athletes from Kenya and Ethiopia in the race. So it's unlikely that there's a big group of strong runners at the front. 3. At the end of the day it's about the medal not the time

rip kelvin kiptum

Shoutout to Sammy Wanjiru who ran the Olympic marathon record in his tempo shoes I believe. I heard he forgot his race shoes and had to wear his warm up shoes for the Olympic marathon and STILL ran 2:06!

TRP's commentary about the difficulty of running a fast Olympic marathon makes Sammy Wanjiru's Olympic record even more impressive. He did it in high heat/humidity, and was able to increase the pace at will, to demonstrate his toughness and running gifts.

How about this... Kiptum has not raced an Olympic marathon before. People pushing themselves in such conditions results in a high drop out rate or athletes overcooking it and slowing down. I don't want to jinx it but I predict Kipchoge to become 3X and Kiptum to struggle in the second half to shock us all

Average August 10 temp in Paris is 26.2C, average low is 15.0C. But the race starts at 8am, so it will finish around 10am, not near the daily high. The average high temp is not 28.4C, and even if it was, the 10am temp is a lot lower. I predict around 20C, or 68F.

Don't forget the three per country limit. So team tactics are limited.

RIP Sammy Wanjiru

In the Olympics; it’s about the story of athlete, person against person, not records and the marathon is the ‘novel’ of athletics.

My bet : We will see a 2:00:00 in the olympic marathon... But I didn't say the clock has to stop there :)

Please note this for the future. The media exhibits this same drastic lack of understanding on all matters, not just marathon running. Its just easier to notice when they cover your expertise.

I can see Kiptum injuring himself before the games and if Kipchoge stays together as well as Bekele, we may even just see an old school showdown with a couple of random guys in there like Tola etc.. Definately going to be a learning curve for Kiptum. August will come round real quick. See what happens for Kiptum in a couple of months ..

There's another consideration is that Kipchoge and Kiptum will be teammates at the Olympics. In a team environment Kipchoge would almost certainly be the senior member. It was tactical running as a team which allowed Josiah Thugwane to take gold at Atlanta.

Love your video coverage of world class races, especially the marathons.This was a very convincing and realistic analyses of why the 2 hour marathon barrier will not be broken in the Paris Olympics. But I think you forgot to mention another important factor involved in the Olympic Marathon. If the primary goal is to win the Gold Medal by winning the race, and not by risking that Medal by possibly burning out by going for a sub-2 hour marathon, especially because there are no rabbits allowed in this race, then why would any of the best runners even attempt risking a victory with a sub-2 hour attempt? Therefore I agree with your prediction of around a 2:04 marathon, but maybe a bit faster, like 2:03:23. Just an intuitive hunch.

I’m excited to see it. I’m an old dog, 45 so pulling for Kilchogie, I hope he can tuck in behind Kiptum conserve as much energy as possible and make a late move to steal the gold however unlikely that is

The financial incentive to break a world record or to go sub 2 hours is not present at the Olympics. Only incentive is to set a new Olympic record. Better to save the records for one of the World Majors and cash some big pay cheques.

There’s a huge difference between 22 degrees Celsius and 35 degrees, both of which are possible in Paris in the height of summer. Also, there can be a huge difference in how the race unfolds. If there is one runner in front with a comfortable lead, that runner is likely to “take it easy” on the way to the finish (who wouldn’t?). So I guess anything from a 2:03 to a 2:12 is possible for the winning time.

Clearly for the uninitiated, having arguably the best marathon athletes ever assembled would yield the best times. But rarely do distance and endurance sports see world records at the Olympic Games. Great video.

430ms of up and down is a lot more than expected and that's going to play a factor. Kiptum has torn up the flat courses but never run either a championship marathon or a hilly one. Kipchoge bombed in the Boston hills but may have learned from the experience. Also Kenya sends three athletes, if it's say Kamworor he's going to run with Kipchoge, Kiptum may have no support. So who knows! Don't forget Tola of Ethiopia, championship winning experience and ran a ridiculous time for NYC.

I literally said “no!” out loud when you said the average temp is 83F ☠️ I can’t imagine racing anything that hot let alone a marathon

Excellent video, but I think the experience of Kipchoge's ability to run in the heat was deriously understated. Plus Kiptum has not been tested in the heat and humidity over the marathon distance. I think 2:04-2:06 is generous.

predicting high 2:04 to low 2:05 for Kiptum, Kipchoge not in second unfortunately

I have no proof of this idea, but I suspect one of the shoe brands requested a hype piece focused on shoes.

Any sub 2hr10:00 marathon is a FAST marathon!

Heat and humidity is the main factor. Olympic games is all about tv in a big city which is usually in a hot climate

Please be careful with what you say about impossibilities, unrealistic, etc. Kipton is very young and in better shape at his age than previous runners at the same age to include Kipchoge. There will be surprises this year. 😊 good stuff.

🤞🏻 only 28 degrees, I remember many July/Augusts in Paris far far above that!! AND a reminder that summer temperatures feel even hotter than the recoded one, it’s a very debilitating type of heat!

A new Olympic record could certainly be in the cards, but a lot will depend on the weather. At that point of the year the temperature in Paris could be anywhere from 20 degrees celsius to beyond 40, so if it's on the lower side a new olympic record seems very likely, but it could also be a slow race.

You only touched on it, the Olympic Marathon will be a tactical race. And I'll go way out on a limb here, so will the 1500m. Nobody short of Yuki Kawauchi has the confidence in their ability to run away with it from the gun. They all think they can win it on a kick, but only one of them will.

It is all the more remarkable that the Olympic marathons of 1960 and 1964 were won in world's fastest ever times by Abebe Bekila, considering the heat and humidity of Rome and Tokyo in summer, conditions never encountered in the Ethiopian Highlands.

The fundamentals of Betteridge's Law of Headlines if you want to optimize your news reading experience; "any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.”

it is still a long way to Paris, but I expect a very tactical race too, maybe with Kipchoge trying to run a fast first half to make Kiptum spend some of the energies he manages to spare for the second half normally. In any case, I am really looking forward to that race!

I really want to see the marathon fall below 2 but I truly don’t see how it’s possible (In an actual race)

The race start time is 8am. Paris average temperature for August 10th at 8am is 62°F/16.6°C, 10th percentile is 56°F/13.3°C, 90th percentile is 68°F/20°C. August 10th at 10:30am average is 67.5°F/19.7°C, 10th percentile is 60.5°F/15.8°C, 90th percentile is 74.5°F/23.6°C.

Lasse Viren finished 5th in that marathon (he ran a 2:13) because he’s a huge blood doper. There’s no way a person can run multiple hard 5k races AND multiple hard 10k races at the Olympics while still retaining the fitness to seriously contest a marathon against athletes who ran the marathon with relatively fresh legs. It’s no coincidence that Finland became mostly irrelevant in long distance running in the 1980s when blood doping was finally outlawed.

“ROO-ters” 😆

To be fair - no one would expect a world record to be achieved in Chicago either - until Kelvin Kiptum improved the course record by 3.5 minutes over previous 02:04:02 time. And current fastest time in Paris is 2:04:21 albeit with pacers. But by this logic if it is also improved by 3-4 minutes it can get very very close to 2 hour mark. So by that math I kind of can see this as withing reason.

The objective is a medal, time is irrelevant in this race. There are a handfull of races that have the potential heat index in the low range that provide plausible conditions .

I agree that a time of around 2.05 is possible but a sub 2 practically impossible as pointed out in the video due to likely hot conditions, no pacers and a whats appears to be quite an undulating course. I can see a sub 2 at one of the majors such as Berlin, London or Chicago which are not held in summer and with pacers.

As an Aussie currently sitting in 30 degree Celsius heat, I can tell you that humidity is a huge factor that often gets left out of discussions about how "hot" a place feels... so while the temperature in Paris might look higher than in other marathons, if the air is drier it may not have the same effect on runner's stamina as a lower temp in a more humid location.

IMHO Biggest factor against the “time” is weather during summer (and time schedule) There are many marathons where pacers are not allowed and still you get sub 2:06 times Regarding Kiptum, he’s only raced on cold and fast courses so far, while Kipchoge has proven he can perform at those conditions. That said, Kiptum is the favorite but it won’t bea susprise if Kipchoge can beat him on such conditions

Some fact checking and thoughts. 1) The average temp in Paris over the past 5 years on August 10th at 8am (time the marathon will start) has been between 13c and 18c not 28c.......2) No official pacers, but no one is talking about countries sacrificing a runner to unleash a fast start and first half to play into the hands of a negative split....3) Kelvin Kiptum has ZERO experience at Olympic Games. Has never experienced the hype associated with it and the pressure that will come with it being one of the favorites, the mens marathon at the Olympics is no place for a rookie to do extra well. 4) Anyone who has run sub 2hr 9 mins over the past 12 months will have a shot on this undulating course. ( the rollers happen between 15km and 30km), so that brings into play plenty of runners who could win this race. It's not going to be a two man dual as nearly all RU-vidr Running Channel "experts" are predicting. It will be a smart mans race to win.

Cierpinski's times were stunning then.........and still good by today's standards. Fast almost 50 years ago.

Average temperature? The race is held in the morning and even in August there is a chance that it will be reasonably cool. Still too warm for records.

LOL, the auto captions wrote Voldemort instead of Waldemar. 😂

Why should they be interested in running a record in the marathon? There is no prize money. What's a gold medal really worth to Eliud?

There is zero chance (ZERO!) that the winner will break 2:00 in Paris. OK... maybe it isn't ZERO. It's one in ten billion.

1:42 *"Rooters"* 😂😂 *I'm dyin'!* 😂💀

if the Olympics were ever held in Chicago, then maybe a sub 2 hour is possible. Chicago is known for it's mild weather in the summer and it's elevation change is minimal to non-existent. So if we ever get an Olympics in the Windy City, watch for some new Olympic or even World records broken as runners would be dealing with much closer to ideal conditions.

What do you expect .... mainstream media at their best!?

A sub 2:00 in Paris would require a sub 61 first half. Even if the weather turns out to be cool, I cannot see them running the first half anything like that fast.

World records are a joke now. It's essentially a Team Marathon Time Trial NOT an individual one. Marathons as a team with pacers should be completely. different to records in standard marathons. Tis why I love the 1hr record for cycling. It's not being paced or drafting..it's one person, one bike and the clock. Thats it. Same with cycling behind a car with a huge cone to allow the cyclist to draft faster. Pointless records. A record is only as amazing as the rules that are set around it.

So, you're telling me there's a chance

TRP, a FANTASTIC video and right on point. As an aside, I was there that day in 1976 Montreal Olympics. It was a great race! Also, I don't know what is happening at Reuters but they are writing some ridiculous articles in a variety of subjects and are getting things completely wrong. EG. Their understanding of Electric Vehicles and the impact they are having in the USA. So, this also ridiculous claim about the Paris Olympic Marathon and a sub 2 hour finishing time, is so stupid, for all the reasons you have mentioned! Well done mate. Cheers.

1. No pacemakers 2. They are trying to actually win a race not set a time.

I will wait to see how Kipchoge does in Tokyo and Kiptum does in Rotterdam before making a prediction. I appreciate your analysis and insights. Thank you!

I think anyone would be stupid to make it tactical with Kelvin Kiptum in it. Kipchoge could take it out quick, you could get a cool day but even still with the elevation sub 2 won’t happen

I think it's almost always a safe bet to predict it won't be a world record. Granted, things in the marathon are dropping pretty fast, but I still say, nah. You give me "the 2 hour marathon goes down sometime in 2024" and that's a different issue. I'd take that, but I won't say where.

Not anymore!! RIP Kiptum!

I feel like Kiptim will run sub 2:07 and because you said it has more elevation change than New York I feel like some athletes who run New York and Boston more often have a slight advantage over Kipchoge who mostly runs on flat courses. i am hopping Kipchoge wins tho

Wait, what?!

Reuters was simply hoping the technology behind some shoes, and the Paris Olympics themselves.

The old, long-standing news publication Reuters is pronounced "roiters" not "rooters" just FYI.

Olympics are fantastic. You get the best in the world together on one day to see who is best, on challenging course in tough conditions. True fans love the Olympic drama.

Maybe it was “the runner” who wrote the article? 🤔

So if maybe the biggest news agency can be this uninformed about this subject imagine how much else you get told that's not true

I am honestly so excited to see who wins in the Olympic marathon, Kiptum is spectacular and has been showing his strength in the Marathon but also Kipchoge may win due to experience in the Olympic marathon. Thanks for the coverage!

If we assume Kiptum is going to win, I suspect that, once he gets maybe 200m ahead, he will take his foot off the gas pedal and coast to victory. There is no need for an especially fast 2nd half. He'll take the win and conserve energy so he can run another marathon that year, probably Valencia.

When I saw Kipchoge beat the 2 hour mark, I was very, very impressed. I also knew that the he and the people around him had stacked the cards as far as they could in his favour to help him accomplish that goal. He not only had the wind-blocking pacers, but he had essentially a straight-line course at sea level on the flattest ground possible. He had access to the best shoes and constant nutrition replenishment along the way. Again, none of this means that he isn't a fantastic marathoner, but it's also true that did what was essentially a tool-assisted speedrun. He showed what is potentially achievable, not what is regularly achievable right now.

I do not see how Kiptum can lose the olympic, given his crazy monthly mileage, 42.2 km is just a stroll for him though I do not think he will go sub 2.0 hours

That heat and elevation gain?! Under 2:08 would be unlikely

I can't see better than 2:06. I just can't. You can tell me how wrong I am in a few months time.

It's not even a given that Kiptum and Kipchoge will both be in the race, given the vagaries of the Kenyan selection process.

Reuters is pronounced Roy-ters not Root-ers

400 meters of elevation gain may not sound like a lot but 1200 ft of gain, even over 26.2 miles, is a considerable amount.

Love the content and FYI, "Reuters" is pronounced "ROY-ters"

Sadly, Kelvin has recently passed. 😢

You just forgot that Kiptum will run in Rotterdam 3 moths prior to the marathon, i don't belive it will help him to go faster in the olimpics.

Honestly, the SUMMER Olympics has never been a place to run a fast marathon. Kiptom is running this race for glory, not speed. So is Kipchoge. If you want a WR, try the flat, fast locations in cooler weather, like Berlin, Valencia, Chicago, Rotterdam, etc. The Reuters piece is intentional superlative hype in my opinion, to drive attention. The Olympics is a special marathon because it is so tied into the genesis of the Olympic games with Pheidippides making that first run, and it comes every few years. But it is not a race that will create World Records.

Love you TRP. It's pronounced "royters" (Reuters)...😉

Lay down mondo track surface with the cheat shoes and a 2 hour is in reach.

I am really hoping these runners can replicate under 2 hour marathon, but the only problem is the heat and temperature, otherwise I am really hoping they can bring down the Olympic record to under 2 hours.

The two hour barrier will never be broken! Now everybody hate me, go ahead…

Listening to a summation of the 1976 Olympic marathon with zero mention of the fact that the champion was doped on every performance enhancer that was known at the time is just painful. And yes there is proof that he was a massive doper. It’s not speculation

2:03 for the winner

Please use video titles which in some way reflect it's contents. It's impossible to try find a video I recall on a topic based on titles.

Excellent vid as always. Ps Reuters is pronounced "Roy-ters"

I was told there is no difference between people of different races -- yet it looks like all of the top marathon runners are black. Therefore it seems like there are differences between different races. Why aren't there any Indonesians or Norwegians or Filipinos who can compete. I feel like I was lied to.

OH NOOOO :(

Seriously that's how you pronounce Lasse Viren?

I think the heat will not allow for a negative split in the race. Would love to see a sprint finish but, I think youth will win out over experience.

I like your content, but I wish your titles explained what the content was. I almost didn't click because I want to watch a video about marathons, not about "it's awful" or whatever. I have avoided your videos before due to the title, and maybe I would've enjoyed those videos.

When he said whopping 28 °C... Me : everyday run at 33°C 😂

I predict Kiptum to announce a mysterious injury before the Olympics.

Kipchoge has been there and done that - with so many achievements. He has nothing more to prove. I think youth will win next year. As a Kipchoge fan, I think it's okay. He proved that a human being can run a sub 2 marathon at the Ineos challenge. It may be time to hand over the baton to someone younger.

The new shoes they use should be illegal. And because of these, I am not impressed as I would be by a sub-2:00:00 marathon.

An excellent point. In most marathons, pacers are key ... and they are paid (very well).

Kiptum's got a 2nd thing over Kipchoge - youth. On a hot day Kipchoge's age could be a factor. I also predict neither of them will win and it'll be an upset. I have no idea who...it's just all the focus being on these 2 guys it's always iornic when someone else who wasn't even mentioned wins the race.

You really think the African runners are complaining about 83 degrees…I wouldn’t be complaining one bit about 83 in August, but I also live Texas…so there’s that.

I think it's great that the Olympic marathon doesn't have pacer and is in sub optimal conditions. We get plenty of time chasing marathons every year. The Olympics is a pure race where a larger group of athletes have a realistic chance of victory. The drama of world class athletes struggling early makes for good TV. The Olympic Marathon is just a different beast and I'm here for it.