My personal tip for investment is BIONICLE this year. I bought a lot of them from last year. They had a short production time and they are very popular. Also: i bought 6203 Black Phantom in 2012 for 20 Euro and used it fro myself, but last year i sold it for 100 Euro used on Amazon!
First of all thanks for the videos. Really cool info! But how do you deal with confirmation bias? In the case of the Ariel sets in hindsight everything worked out like in your theory. How can you conclude that this will work for similar sets? Have you found a real explanation what exactly made people buy the small sets for such a high price when the bigger sets were already out? Why not the same with Frozen for example? Is the Ariel franchise maybe more attractive for grown up Lego collectors because they saw the Ariel movie as child?
All very good questions. It is easy to trumpet success and forget failure. In my last video (tomorrow) I talk about some of my failures. Since memory is so subjective, I don't have a good answer without spending a lot more time looking at my past assumptions critically. I am sure that bias effects my examples even if I try to be balanced.
LEGO mass produces most sets now, chinese duplicates, resellers who can afford dozens of a set, and the decreasing number of buyers of more expensive sets is making LEGO not an investment. The re-release of the death star sealed it. A person would have alot less stress putting most of their money in a mixture of index funds and maybe buy a set here or there for their own building or just a small collection.
For me, I think I could invest in LEGO. But, internally, I know I'm just going to open the box and build the set. The only set that I have "invested" in is the 2015 Winter Village Toy Shop. That said, it's only because my parents accidentally bought me two, and never actually gave me the second. It's in their closet right now.
