I don't know a damn thing about Magic or any of the other TCG's, for that matter. I've been a sports cards collector for upwards of 30 years now and your videos regarding market dynamics are spot on. When the world was ending in '07-'09, I was buying specific types of sports cards because they were being pulled down with everything else, and it didn't make sense to me. That move paid off immensely and, as you stated, it sure is looking like another repeat of people dragging down everything, again. I started adding some good stuff to my collection again, that'll just be put away for years.... just as I did back in '07-'09. Some stuff, as I know you're more than aware, just gets beaten down with everything else and patience is key. Awesome videos, great insight.
Pokemon and flesh and blood are settled. They have what they are doing under control and aren't subject to public trading. MTG is getting hit by an economic downturn, a greedy company, and a playbase that just doesn't care anymore. Id be interested in how many people playing this game even care about new sets unless they are collecting/investing. You also don't have a stimulus around the bend so I doubt this is gonna turn into another 2019/2020 situation. MTG will come back, but its gonna take some time and some new leadership. Everyone is quickly realizing that Hasbro is the shareholders friend, not ours.
I play every week, I just proxy an entire commander deck almost weekly for around $20. Too expensive and too many sets being shoved I've given up on buying and collecting other than meme cards and rl
Honestly the more time passes, the more deranged Rudy has become. eventually he will be like a cave goblin hoarding all the cardboard and still believing this stuff will be worth fortunes one day. LOL
I once made up 101 tenets of a fictional god of commerce. The tenets were based on the Ferengi rules of acquisition. Tenet 91: "The shadow cast by risk is far larger than risk itself; don't fear it." You described this perfectly at 5:20.
As a banker i can only agree to his statement on mistakes vs. Decisions that at one point in time seem wrong. I think you can adapt that to more than just financial decisions tho, take care guys and fight through
I feel like a part of it is people getting increasingly exposed to predatory stuff like randomized boosterpacks (equal to lootboxes). The people that grew up being scammed with cardboard crack are getting older and wiser. There is some serious fatigue that comes with this stuff. Magic is an insane luxury in the TCG world, with extremely accessible and low cost alternatives being increasing in numbers. Magic is a game first and collectible second for some consumers. The gaming market is competing for peoples entertainment "slot" so to speak. People can only do so much for leisure. A similar thing is happening with content streaming market. There is only so much a person can consume at a given time. This is of course only a part of the whole picture that I can not claim to properly understand.
When I go to my LGS, I see people having fun, drafting, playing commander, pioneer, & modern. Everyone looks at me funny wearing my Alpha Investments shifts because they are players. After a draft, everyone sells the cards they pulled and come out close to even for a fun night. Maybe the big wigs at Hasbro know this is a Macro Econ issue and that’s why that fireside chat was such a meme. Magic is fine. Products are good. Let’s get back to more live events and pump standard/pioneer to keep the card flow right and we will all be good.
I'm pretty sure the December dump was bigger than the Black Friday dump. Doesn't mean stores can't sell Magic cards, doesn't mean you'll get rich doing so either. People can't see what's coming, it's the instability that matters.
There was a Wednesday / Thursday sale that was bigger than the Black Friday Dump. Most of the good deals sold out in minutes on Wednesday / Thursday, so there was hardly any product left for Black Friday.
I gotta ask though. Who is the future market for these collector boxes from sets no one remembers? Like who is the guy who wants to pay a 50% markup for collector 2021?
@@tola6327 ahhhhh, it’s like you haven’t learned a thing. They will go up, I don’t even hold any magic and I can guarantee you they will be double the price, maybe more in 5 years.
My local Walmart’s and targets were fully stocked behind glass and literally everyone sold this past month after being stocked 2 times a week all month and it was bought out Pokémon yugioh mtg sports all of it was gone maybe a few packs left .
Gameplay is going toward 1 and 2 mana card power creep so reprints just remind people price memory isn't for play. Collectors of new product are chasing bling are getting burned by saturation. Collectors of old product are passing the same cards back and forth unless the fan base grows. The fan base is competing with free to play games or just Arena. Old formats are being rotated by power creep. lgs are dying from what I understand. Things don't always bounce back even if there are cycles.
I feel like New Capenna is the bottomed-out collector box nobody talks about. They were selling for $110 on Black Friday and have not recovered almost at all. Still readily available for $115-$120. Worse than Vow even after being dumped at $80! It could be many years before that crosses back up to the distributor price of $180-190. Dominaria United Collectors, on the other hand, I believe to be the victim of over-done market pessimism. Love them as a long term hold when buying in at $150-160.
@@zerosum789 The triomes really give the set a solid floor. I think Capenna has been overlooked in that regard. It's VERY low risk at its current price. However, I think it has pretty significant ceiling issues due to lack of lottery-type cards combined with the fact that there's no $40-50 chase mythic like Shoeldred or Meathook Massacre in the set. Apart from those tri-lands, the very few (2?) number of cards over the $7 mark in their base printing form are extraordinarily likely to be quickly reprinted as they are non-legendary rares (not mythic) and not overly tied to the story of the set. Still, I'm happy to have bought a couple boxes at $110.
As someone who has played Magic since 1994 and lived and breathed Magic from 2002 until fairly recently I know that there are so many sets, variants of sets and variants of cards coming out that I quit trying to even keep up some time ago. Add to that how Wizards destroyed every format that isn't commander and all of this is a collective "meh" from me and I'm pretty sure that is what you are seeing in the numbers. Magic 30 was the tipping point for a whole lot more people getting as disgusted and disillusioned with the game as I've been for a while.
The reason we concentrate on the 1 out of 10 items that went bad is because we expect it to work out like the other 9. We are not excited for the other 9 as that is what we expected to happen. If you have a car and get a flat tire, your not going to be happy that the other 3 are ok. They are expected to be ok.. you are worried about the one that went flat as first off it wasn't supposed to happen and second, it shuts down the whole car and makes the other 3 good tires pointless.
The analogy is incomplete. That's why you also keep a spare tire in the vechile so that when one does go flat its time consuming yes but doesn't leave you stranded. All endeavors have risks of flats but aslong as you keep a spare before attempting to drive you'll be OK even when disaster strikes. Now if you attempt to drive with out a spare and potentially recklessly at that. Then crashing and burning is always on the table anytime you sit down.
It’s not an issue of over printing or under printing - WotC and Hasbro over the past 3-5 years have systematically put mediums in place (Secret Lair, Remastered Sets, constant reprints just to name a few) to extract almost 100% of the secondary market. All of this from a company who cannot lEgAlLy recognize the secondary market. So because they can’t extract 100% of the value, 100% of the time, they shut down the entire ecosystem
There are just too many products so a lot of players have to pick and choose what they buy. So if we miss a set, so be it. We can buy some of the singles as a substitute. We can also wait for the Amazon dumps. As far as the Dominaria United Collectors boxes go, I wouldn't be surprised if Wizards kept out a lot of the good Legends rares. Thanks for the video.
Rudy will never address that but even if a product is rare, value will not necessarily goes up if demand is not there. Here's what changed; with so many products adding up each year, demand will be scattered between these 420 products and undermine financial growth. I bet that in 5 years 98.69% of sealed products gains will be 3% per year.
well man, I don't buy the boxes anymore since I usually ended up not hitting what I'm looking for in the sets, and mostly the card I open from boxes ended up being sold. So, I only buy singles and PRAY that the singles prices tag ended up spiking up which I almost never expect any of them will. I also prefer to participate in the prerelease, and drafts for fun. I'm really sorry if any of the LGS ended up overstocking their boxes in their warehouses, I truly am. But, there's nothing I can do to change that. Perhaps you LGS pray that I may end up having millions of dollars of income every month, so I can support you guys. Wink wink.
Never ever get emotional about cardboard, stocks, Collectibles in my case Royal Doulton, and Hummels. (Talk about getting screwed with your pants on) or Hot Wheels for all that matters. The minute you bring emotion into the equation you lose. Because you don’t use your head the one with the brain in it.
You keep saying that there are very few CBs on the open market, but fail to consider that perhaps there is no demand for it. why would i want a CB of M21 when i can get a draftbox and enjoy a draft night and then get another set and draft that the weekend after. CBs just don't look appealing to me post standard rotation.
The only time I was wrong was when I came out of the movie titanic, and told everyone"I can't believe the boat sinks"... Oh, wait, I can't out of the last temptation of Christ crying, saying "I can't believe he dies"... Ok so I was wrong twice for spoiling🤪
Magic isn't going to zero. The IP has potential, and still makes money. Even if Hasbro or WoTC goes bankrupt someone will buy the IP and keep it going. What that looks like I don't know, but MTG is going to exist long after we're all gone.
Hey, just wondering your thoughts on the effect on the market you'd have if you decided to sell any one set of mtg you have and also if you sold all of your mtg products. Always appreciate the great content and hope for the best for you in the new year friend 🤙
I hit the point of singles only I can’t in good conscience give wizards anymore money after shrinking booster packs and increasing prices not just 30th. My 40k side hobby is about to get a lot more love cause at least I know what I’m getting with them as shitty as games workshop is they aren’t wizards
@@dbptwg : same here. I have shifted heavily into FaB. They release less often, its only one booster box size/type, and the cards are amazing quality. For MTG I am just drafting with friends occasionally.
If I had enough money i'd buy 100 of every product. At this point us regular folk have to pick and choose what we want. And if most of them are like me, that shit gets opened!
April 1st is coming soon, definitely need an april fools day prank: News article 'eccentric florida man found buried underneath 10,000 lbs of cardboard playing cards after foundation of home shifts'
Even if you double your money in 5 years you need a significantly large position in these products to make any real money. If the box costs $140 now and is $280 in 5 years, congrats you doubled your money and made $140. With inflation it’s more like 70-80% return. You also had to store that product somewhere for 5 years. You’d need hundreds, if not thousands of boxes of these products to make anything significant and that’s just not realistic for most people. I guess my point is I don’t think it’s a good place to park your money unless you do it for the love of collecting. I’m open to other opinions though but I just don’t see how it makes sense for most people.
yeah this is what they call materiality in accounting where an the size and return investment may not be significant enough for someone to invest compared to their income
Hey Rudy. Love the videos as always. You information has really helped me and yo have my gratitude. I've been fallowing since 2020 I would love to participate in the Patron sales. Is there a waiting list or something i can get on?
your investments cannot be equated to all of us who doesnt have a private firm investing in cardboard....you can write of your purchases and your expenses for buying boxes are tax deductable...your advice only applies if one has a company, that get the benefits of different tax rules... would only investment if I had a company for doing it...people are Timmies
Rudy, I feel like something that needs to be talked about is liquidity. Sure, some of these SKUs might go up in price over time, but when you do decide to sell down the line, who’s buying this stuff? How fast is it going to sell?
They shoule have taken out all legends cards worth less than some predetermined amount out of rhe collector boxes and put those cheap cards into the draft boxes.
In five years if the box goes from 170 to 250. It doesn't make it a good investment when normal people hold maybe 10 boxes of a product. When you have 1000 boxes, that's another story.
I'm still buying into modern Magic and ofcourse, I have been Pokemon since 1998, cardboard has been my childhood and life. I'm buying and sitting on sealed product Magic Pokemon, and have all sets of MetaZoo except for the Kickstarter Box.
Very interesting conversation as usual. My personal opinion: Magic is probably existing and going to go up in the future, BUT it will be slowed down because of the heavier competition. It will lose a part of it's player base to FaB, Pokemon, Sorcery TCG (if that really comes into existence) etc. The problem is manly the poor management, and they happen to be the wrong people, at the wrong time, in the wrong place. From what I see people are lookinh around after Magic 30 and in contrast to 2016/17 there is alternatives. Rudy made the example with the disfunctional relationship people are willing to end, as soon as there is opportunity, well there is, not all will go, not all will stay away permanently, but for many the focus will shift. If I have the opportunity to buy Socery Tcg in Europe that's were I will go. I will look at different boardgames FaB and even pokemon. I won't abandon mtg totally. But I also see people cutting their ties with the game, many got burned on modern magic cards like lily and gofy which have lost a huge amount of value and they are moving on. We also should not underestimate the risk that magic fails completely or gets at least damaged for 5 years +, because quote from the big short ;) "... it's the thing you know for sure that gona f*** you up." I' m going to take a punch in case that's going to happen, but hopefully the stock market, will give me pleasure :). Have a nice day you all!
On the latest episode of coping with the death of the reserved list. Listen guys, don’t use emotion… Tough times don’t last, tough timmys do. Please folks, don’t abandon magic because I’ve got 9 figures worth.
"Wizards is just really keeping everything the same" *17%~ of all cards were printed this year. 25% of commanders were printed this year* Yep Rudy, WotC is def just doing the same ol same ol.
Funny how 9/10 of the sets from the 2015/2016 are now worth AT LEAST 2X what they sold for at time of release..... almost 20% increase per year is not bad (and thats an average). Not saying collector boxes will do this, I do not think they will, but people saying that that era was done and there was no new product worth buying were obviously wrong. Nothing 10x, but we should not expect 10x.
Card games over the year have become unplayable over the years people just look at tuition people tend to collect and magic seems the dearest to get into
It's not 2008, it's far worse. The money printer that brought us out of '08 has been turned off so all the fallout in the can they've been kicking and adding to up until now has to be reckoned with.
The problem is that by the time the FED and the US Treasury realizes the end is coming it will be too late. They will not be able to PR or stimulate their way out of the implosion of debt finance consumer based economics, also known as capitalism.
Can you count on Jerome Powell to keep the money printer off though? Everyone knew he was overprinting in 2020-2021 and was gonna cause massive inflation and he did it anyway.
Yeah the 2008 recession should have lasted longer. We're going to get that borrowed time added onto this one. Unfortunately I think It's going to be a while yet before the economy completely flushes out and we start to turn. I'm in the UK so our situation has some differences but our economy is moving pretty much in line with the US so far.
@@matthiaslenz5592 by the time he turns on the printer it will be too late. It won't stop food riots. It won't make supplies appear on the shelves. It won't give people back good paying jobs (which he wants them to lose) to allow them to pay for their overpriced rent. The elites are too out of touch to see how close to losing everything the vast majority of people are.
@@matthiaslenz5592 They will wait for the carnage in the markets to get gnarly then they will pivot back to QE. When that happens buy everything, ride the pump, and dump the bag before they reverse course again which they will absolutely have to do in order to not collapse the dollar which is the #1 priority for them over saving Wall St. They can't have it both ways. Either they raise interest rates ultimately to at least equal the real rate of inflation and keep them there for some time to reign in the excesses and tame it which will ultimately result in a default on the interest payments of the national debt or they let it continue to rage on like a wildfire and the dollar is devalued to worthlessness. Either outcome doesn't end well.
if you make this your investing thesis you better have a patreon model like rudy to unload the product. born of the gods has moved 5 dollars in 9 years. there is no guarantee with these collector boxes. they are a new addition to a new market. that being said I still believe in it and continue to hold collector boxes, but be careful!
When it comes to the collector boxes, are you buying standard sets? Is there a massive risk to holding them close to and after they rotate out? You sound like you know what you're talking about, but sorry to bother you lmao
@@cYAgent115 so far im most bullish on modern horizons 2, but the honest to god truth is we still don't know. its still very new and its a big gamble to take in this market. during the pandemic it was easy money.
@@Sherman_616 In short you'd recommend already rotated out sets then? I'm just trying to get a feel for the risks before investing. I think i might go for Kamigawa neon dynasty because MTG weebs love their anime. but the downside is how long is it worth holding onto because idk if its gonna collapse after it rotates out.
@@cYAgent115 anything pre 2003 will always have value. Starting with 8th edition the foiling process changed and print size went up. Also buy what you love! War of the Spark, Throne of Eldraine, Dominaria and Kamigawa neon Dynasty are fun as hell and fairly cheap still.
99% of traders (including forex) lose money. Being a break-even trader is considered good. Being able to have a W/L ratio of 52% is considered above average. Consider that. If you flipped coins, your WL ratio is about the same. You will lose. Risk management and good psychology is the number one factor to making money.
The problem is the fed rate hikes. These hikes have caused demand destruction this it not like 2016 its more like 2007. You will need to give it 5-10 years to hold on for the gains. The problem comes in now is how will you keep adding to your own personal inventory when you cant move the LGS inventory to begin will. I say you need to be in cash right now because those that cant hold inventory will be forced to sell because of a liquidity problem.
@@liltonyabc Pokemon is more mature than MTG when it comes to collecting (as in more people collect than play the game) give it a litte more time. Q1 and Q2 we will start seeing pokemon slow down like crazy.
@@delic. Pokémon’s already slowed down. Most vintage slabs are down 50-60% YOY, vintage sealed has held in on the premise that it’s just that scarce, and it appears modern has yet to really take any heat. I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for some massive sell off when it’s already happened
I wonder if this time in MTG is the same as the stock market in general. A buy opportunity. With the majority of people passing on products, we can be the few who hold them. In just a few years they will have VERY much increased. I too doubt the death of MTG.
If I buy these products they won’t get the message. I want this game to last the test of time not burn it to the ground in 5 years. They need to make drastic changes.
