Got a lot of comments recently about the Juan Soto intro not aging well. I don't think that's the case... With how arbitration works, he pretty much guaranteed to make ~$50 million over the next two years. The question then becomes, going into his age 26 season can he secure a $300+ million dollar contract to still come out ahead of the initial $350 million offer the Nationals made? For reference, going into their age 26 season, these players secured $300+ million dollar contract (not even adjusting for inflation)... Manny Machado - $376 million Bryce Harper - $330 million Both of those players had seasons prior to free agency that were worse than Juan Soto's 2022. Now, Soto also turned down a heavily back-ended $440 million dollar extension offer from the Nationals right before being traded. Doing the same analysis above, after the two remaining arbitration years, he would need a $390 million dollar free agent contract to come out ahead. Looking at Machado's free agent contract and adjusting for inflation in the last 3 years, I still think that's very doable.
I think Soto just wanted out, at that time i think he was really the ONLY person on that team, the other few good players that they had were already gone and Soto was the only one remaining. From that team, Bryce was the only name on that team when he was there, and Soto was the only name on the team when HE was there. And I think Soto just wanted to go to another team because he was on a team that wasn't going anywhere any time soon.
Why would you not include inflation adjusted contracts on your list? For example A rod signed a deal in 2000 when he was 24 or 25 (10 year) that was worth around 396 mil (inflation adjusted). I understand why you wouldn't include players who have signed 300+ mil deals when they were younger than 26, but as you age you are less likely to get a big contact, so why wouldn't you include 300+ mil contracts that were signed when the player was over the age of 26? It seems like you are trying to cherry pick examples and not take into account reasonable measures in order to make your case "Stronger" to the uninformed viewer. I just want to be clear, I am not saying it was or was not a good idea for Soto to turn down that contract, and my personal philosophy is the guaranteed life changing money that sets up yourself, your kids, and many future generations is better than gambling down the road, like what can you do with 400 mil, that you can't with 350? However, that is besides the point I am making.
He couldn't sneak that shoulder by anyone. He doesn't have compensation attached anymore, so he will get something this season. he isn't completely screwed yet lol But yeah, he did lose out on 18 and a decent team run.
@@wvmetsfan Gosh darn you're right. Add in the 3 year offer was prior to 2017 and his potential earning of $40 mil versus his real earnings of $23 mil means only a loss of $17 mil.
@@aidenrogatz8071 it certainly at below his value...probably 8 years. Conforto just sat out a single season with an injury. It's crazy to say he is a bust...atleast this soon. I'd take him on the Jays for 1yr/20mil and watch him become the next semien. Marcus lost his bet when he turned down the QO and ended in Toronto on 1 year at that same QO amount anyways. Now he's being overpaid by 50 million elsewhere.
I started following baseball around the time when Tim Lincecum won his first Cy Young...never would have thought he'd go out like that, he was a beast!
Really sad when Lincecum seemed to lose his mojo, but I always thought he had an injury to his left thigh or hip. He had so much torque through his windup in his core, and an injured thigh or hip would ruin it
Apparently he changed his diet around 2010-2011 and stop d eating junk food. He subsequently lost 15-20lbs. Dude was already skinny, so the theory is that the extra weight was adding to his FB velo and once he shed it, down went the velo.. making his best pitch, the changeup, more and more ineffective.. I think he started over rotating in his delivery to compensate and hurt his hip, like you said (he had to get surgery later on iirc).
Jose Bautista was reportedly demanding a 5 year $150 million extension in the offseason before 2016. Ended up declining severely that year, got a single year $18M contract with the Jays afterward, then declined farther and only got a minor league deal the year after before washing out of MLB completely. I don't think it ever been leaked how much the Jays were trying to extend Bautista for, if they ever made an offer at all, but is an example of a player severely overestimating how much he would hold up and probably ended up losing a lot of money from not being more reasonable in extension talks.
Bautista really wanted to hang on in the big leagues, so much so that even when he realized he could no longer make it as a hitter, he tried becoming a pitcher in his late 30s.
@Lefroy ummm he was more than wobbled. He was lucky Beltre was there to hold him up and stop Odor from clocking him again. One of the most satisfying punches in sports history
I remember when Rickey Henderson signed a deal that paid him about 3mil a year and ppl were blown away that he was making that kind of money. These contracts today are astronomical. And unlike NFL the contracts are guaranteed for term of deal.
I was a kid in Vallejo CA watching Tim lincecum pitch. He was an animal for a guy with a small frame. We had so many playoff/world series parties having Tim pitch in his prime was almost a guaranteed W. The excitement he brought to the Giants games and baseball period, I will never forget it.
Juan Gonzalez saw two pitches in 2005. The second pitch was chopped back to the mound, wherein Gonzalez took two steps and blew out his knee. Career over.
I used to work with a kid who just graduated high school and was offered a one million dollar contract to play baseball. well he held out. ended up finally signing a contact for like 200,000$.
On the contrary probably the best case of betting on yourself and winning is Max Scherzer, didn’t take the long term deal in Detroit, got the massive 7 year deal from Washington and then the highest AAV ever from the Mets while being elite the entire time
What's amazing is Max is one of the very few long term deals signed at over 30 that ended up being a good deal for the team. Meanwhile the tigers have out tons of shit contracts like Miggy and Zimmerman but didn't resign Max.
Great video! What makes the Nomar story even more heartbreaking is that if he signed the Sox extension, he would have been a part of the '04 WS team. That's gotta haunt him.
Fantastic video!! Wow, some guys really overvalued themselves. Not everybody lucks out like Albert Pujos did with the Angels. I’d love to see a video on players who turned down qualifying offers and ended up regretting it (Stephen Drew from the Red Sox in 2014 comes to mind).
Stephen Drew still got the prorated amount of the QO when he signed in May, so wasn't too bad for him. The full list of those who regret turning down qualifying offer... 2013: Nelson Cruz (Rejected $14.1 million QO, signed for 1 year $8 million with Orioles) 2013: Kendrys Morales (Rejected $14.1 million QO, signed for 1 year $7.4 million with Twins) 2015: Ian Desmond (touched on him in this video) 2015: Dexter Fowler (Rejected $15.8 million QO, signed for 1 year $8 million with Cubs) 2015: Hisashi Iwakuma (Rejected $15.8 million QO, signed for 1 year $11 million with Mariners) 2017: Greg Holland (Rejected $17.4 million QO, signed for 1 year $14 million with Cardinals) 2017: Lance Lynn (Rejected $17.4 million QO, signed for 1 year $12 million with Twins) 2017: Mike Moustakas (Rejected $17.4 million QO, signed incentive laden 1 year deal that ended up $8.7 million with Royals) 2018: Dallas Keuchel (Rejected $17.9 million QO, signed for 1 year $13 million with Braves) 2021: Michael Conforto (Rejected $18.4 million QO, never signed with any team)
The first day that pujos sign that contract i knew that the angles would not win in 10years, wth were the angels thinking, i have been to the stadium, its smaller than i thought, most of us dont watch or even go to angels games, how can they paid him that much, i knew it once that is sign.
The problem has been a few decades now that agents gaslight them into over valuing their worth. Too many a career has been financial ruined by those greedy agents doing gaslighting. The smarter younger MLBers would be aware of this phenomenon and thus try to avoid the trap. Just this year you had the Freddie Freeman incident for example. C'man, lotsa players are now into data diving, yet don't do data diving regarding the agents themselves. Do the data dive on the agents already, learn something about your salaries.
@@BaseballsNotDead Howie Kendrick declined the 1 year 16 m qualifying offer from the dodgers but then signed for 2 years 20m total with half of it deferred. He surely would have made more taking the QO.
@@BaseballsNotDead Fowler at least definitely did not lose, he would surprisingly come back to the Cubs and have that glorious WS year, then get a mega-deal w the Cardinals.
Really sucks how things worked out for Nomar Garciaparra! He did get a 2004 WS ring and share....so there is that. Makes me wonder if he had healed up properly (which they rushed him back in 2004), maybe the 4 yr deal could have worked. SS the next few years was kind of hope and pray for the Red Sox.
For that brief time he was fire, it looked like there was going to be a rivalry of greatness with Derek Jeter. Hell, for those couple of seasons, Jeter was actually getting a bit overshadowed by Nomar.
There’s a small detail not mentioned here, that factors into why the Sox dumped him. It’s the Achilles injury. He did hurt it by kicking a soccer ball against the Monster. Because the injury happened at Fenway, the Red Sox couldn’t void anything about his then current contract. More importantly, had they tried that route they might have won, however they would have lost in the public. It wasn’t Nomar being popular that would have caused the outrage. It was that he was kicking the soccer around with his wife,(excuse me if you know about her). Mia Hamm. She’s literally an OG of US Women’s Soccer. They wouldn’t have won a public battle going up against her.
Watching Tim Lincecum fall from grace was very sad. Such a fun player to watch. I’m not even a Giants fan, but I still hated to see it. Such a beast though, those first few years were incredible. MLB the show, I had my Red Sox season saved to play, and the Giants just to pitch with Lincecum through a season and see how ridiculous numbers I could put up and win the Cy Young
He was a guy who everyone knew would fall apart sooner or later, but I don’t think anyone expected the extremes he hit going up…and then down. Really, he went from perennial Cy Young contender to one of the worst starters in the league in a single season.
The money in sports is getting more and more absurd. By the time I’m 50 I believe we’ll be seeing 60-70 million/year contracts regularly. Is there ever a breaking point? I think ego drives a lot of athletes to desire the biggest number when in reality the difference between 20 million a year and 25 million a year is virtually nothing w/r/t lifestyle, happiness, etc.
These players are nuts for turning down guaranteed money. You never know what the future holds as far as injuries or just playing bad. I remember a quote from Gary Payton back in the 90's. He said there really isn't much of a difference between a $80 mil contract and a $90 mil one since it's nearly impossible to spend that much money in 1 lifetime. I mean really, how many Bugatti's, mansions and private jets can you buy? Most these players are in their mid to late 20's so you figure they have 50 to 60 years to spend all that money.
Greed. Btw, no one seems to understand that deGrom is seeking more guaranteed money. He knows he's not beating the $30.5m AAV he'd have gotten w the Mets in 2023, but even if it's 'only' 3/60m with incentives, he's doing much better.
Don’t forget about Pedro Alvarez After the 2013 season the Pirates did wanna offer him an extension around $60 million Scott Boris convince them to go to free agency did not work out well for Pedro as he made considerably less than the $60 million throughout his career
@@BaseballsNotDead Yeah I know what you mean you’re only Put in your video Officially reported Contracts that have officially Been reported One thing the Pirates don’t do is Leak declined contract information probably because they’re so embarrassed they offered the guy such a lowball offer lol
I feel like Lincecum got that contract because he was the most likeable guy in the game arguably. Perhaps the giants felt they could make a lot of that contract money back in merch sales. Love the content!
You're probably right. He was described as being the most loved athlete in SF since Joe Montana. He also wasn't married, which kept him popular with the ladies. It used to be a common thing that clubs would keep a guy like that around as long as he was somewhat productive. It's like Mark Grace with the Cubs. Solid defense, solid bat, big hit with the ladies and single for most of his career. The Cubs sold a lot if tickets to women because of Gracie, probably the same with Big Time Timmy Jim.
I know their pain I could have grabbed 2 gallons of milk and used my 50 cents off but I was afraid it may spoil so I passed it up…the coupon expired and my kids drank the first Gallon of milk quickly. I paid full retail on the next Gallon. But no use crying over spilled milk. 🤷🏻♂️
Slightly disappointed you didn't mention that McGehee was on pace to absolutely destroy the single season GIDP record with the Giants before he ended his career
I think what you can take from this isn't that players turned down money too much. It's that these teams offer way too much money for aging and injured players and really missed a bullet by not buying these guys.
I forgot too. I started watching baseball around 1995. I remember the braves beating the Indians. Nobody talks about Juan Gonzalez. I had to Google him
Man, watching the Tiny Tim "highlights" while you talked about him was pretty depressing. I always liked him as he was a smaller version of Orel Hershiser IMO.
Lmao that's hilarious the Casey Mcgeehee homerun lmao. He only had 4 home runs in an entire season and 1 came off Lincecum. Its amazing how things come full circle. I love baseball.
Do have the research for a future video on what have been the best/worst completed FA contracts (or extensions if no arb years were bought), adjusting for baseball inflation (much faster than regular inflation, based off league average salary), that are 5+ years and $100+ million (contract had to be completed) in $ per WAR. Best 5 1. Barry Bonds 1993 contract 2. Greg Maddux 1993 contract 3. Adrian Beltre 2011 contract 4. Pedro Martinez 1998 contract 5. Barry Bonds 2001 contract Worst 5 1. Prince Fielder 2012 contract 2. Albert Belle 1999 contract 3. Catfish Hunter 1974 contract 4. Albert Pujols 2012 contract 5. Alex Rodriguez 2008 contract
@@BaseballsNotDead Belle's contract was mostly covered by insurance since he was too injured to play for most of it, so I don't think that would count as one of the costliest contracts. Fielder's contract may have also gotten reimbursement from insurance for similar reasons, so that would need to be looked up.
Nomar was a headcase. Between the OCD, the insecurity, and his Soccer Gal, he was doomed. He was never truly reliable in the clutch or even as a day to day player with all his injuries. A lot of hype I was glad to see go away. Turned out great for Boston!
Kevin you kills with the Yankees was an absolute robbery. Small length contract but most people forget he went to yankees and played like a half second for a quik 10mill Troy tulowotzki too to yankees was a terrible bust
Not sure what happened to Tim Lincecum but he was top 5 pitcher for a few years then just lost the way to deliver the pitch. Though he did throw 2 no hitters against the Padres in back to back years.
Honestly, if you followed him it seemed he enjoyed his time in Japan. Won a championship in 2013 (In the city that was devastated by the tsunami two years prior), and was always a fan favorite over there. Sure he may have missed out on a big payday here, but I’d say he had a pretty fulfilling career.
I think the moral of the story here is that Power Hitters and Power pitchers are going to decline hard once regression kicks in. So take what sets you up for life after baseball while you can.
I'd like to see a video about all the bad deals teams make where they sign guys to long term big money deals and the guy they sign is terrible. Mike Hampton is the first that comes to mind but I'm sure there are many others. The Pujols deal with the Angels is another more recent example.
This list is long. The first one that comes to me is my guy Vernon Wells. The second on is Barry Zito but this list is endless and almost every fan would have a player or two from their team. Ryan Howard, Chris Davis, Carl Crawford, Miguel Cabrera etc etc etc. I'd like to see something like the top 5 largest deals ever signed in the MLB that didn't end up being a disaster. The caveat being the contract has to be concluded or the player retired so we can assess the value. The big contracts given until more recently eventually turned sour because they came in players early/mid 30's and the backend years ended up terrible. I have no idea what the best big value contracts ever given were and would love to see someone deep dive into it.
Biig contracts are always a terrible idea. I don't care if he is in his 20s or 30s. Unless he has some insane drive to be better every day, the money will make him lazy
I'd like to see a couple variations on this. Of course you have worst signings/times players took the big offer then sucked, but players who bet on themselves and won or teams who didn't want to pay up and lost would be interesting. While there are plenty of Lincecum stories, there are stories like Aaron Judge too. Guy could have signed an extension, instead went in to his final year, broke the clean HR record, basically dragged the Yankees to the postseason, and won the MVP
You're in luck. Not only have I done a "players who bet on themselves and won" but in the next couple of days I have "the worst $100+ million dollar contracts in baseball history" coming out.
aaah....actually....the Yankee pitching 'dragged' them into the playoffs. Judge didn't bet on himself! He bet against the Yankees!!! the Yankees offered him a more than fair contract! the last few years will be on the books, and Judge will be retired! with some of Judge's money, they could have filled the holes in left field, 3rd base and the pitching staff! instead, they OVERPAID Judge and let Tallion get away! AND THEN THEY MADE JUDGE CAPTAIN OF THE YANKEES!! SEEECH!!! what a fleece!!!
I don't recall the exact details, but I feel like Mike Moustakas deserves an honorable mention. I recall him wanting something like a 8yr 200mil deal, bit wound up signing a 1yr deal for way less
I can't believe we never learned from our mistake of offering an ageing player ridiculous money. We got to see a guy fizzle out several years after a 140 mil deal was floated, then turn around a decade later and give the largest MLB contract in (at the time) history to an ageing player with injury concerns and the contract doesn't end up being worth it outside of marketing. I know Miggy didn't fall off a cliff immediately like Gonzalez and kept providing value until 2017, but it was still too long of a contract for his age and injury history. It wouldn't be so big of a deal if Mike was still alive to provide funding, but with Christopher being a lot more stingy with the purse strings, we're struggling to afford to compete.
I remember hearing that Neifi Perez reportedly turned down a 6 year $60-66 million deal from the Rockies, I believe it was after the 2000 season. He ended up only making about $18 million during that time.
All I can find is that he turned down a 4 year $17 million deal from the Rockies... extras.denverpost.com/rock/rox0118.htm He made $11 million during those 4 years.
@@BaseballsNotDead I looked as well and couldn’t find anything to verify it. It comes strictly from watching a game Neifi played in and the announcer mentioning it. Has to be 15 -20 years ago at least. Could have been just a rumor, but if I find anything about it, I’ll include it in this comment field.
So this might come as a shock but many players are “gifted contracts” by organizations that value their contribution to a multi season run, World Series ect. Lincecum is not the first and won’t be the last
I would say a different way to look at it would be percent of initial contract actually realized; Juan Gonzalez - 39m out 140m = he lost almost 72% of his contract worth,, Technically both he and McGehee lost 72% of their potential earnings But !@ Neil Walker lost 83% of his contracts initial value making his final contract just 17% of what it was initially valued at.
Interesting that you break this down by raw dollars, in which more recent contracts will be more prevalent just due to inflation in MLB salaries. I still think Jody Reed is the best example, essentially his agent telling the Dodgers to stuff their 7.3 M contract offer. Jody only landed 350K in his net contract representing a 95.5% loss... that's just brutal.
Growing up in the 90s I remember nomar was huge an was often put in the same comparisons with jeter an arod back when he was a shortstop even though Alex was a much better shortstop then both of them in my opinion nomar was pretty good in his own right sad how he didn’t last as long in the league like they did
Another player we can add to the mix: Matt Harrington. Harrington was the #7 overall pick by the Rockies. Why not higher? The other 6 were scared of Harrington's asking price of $5 million for a signing bonus. The Rockies' final offer was in 2001 for $4 million and a guarantee he'll play in Denver in 2002. Matt turned it down. In 2001, the Padres selected him at 58th overall. Again, he was offered $1 million. Of course, he held out for double that and no deal was signed. He never played a game in the major leagues, and in 2009, he was reportedly working at a Costco Tire Shop for $11/hour. Hey, at least he didn't end up selling women's shoes a la Al Bundy. But the bottom line: Harrington bet on himself and LOST big time.
Wish Neil Walker wasn’t traded from Pittsburgh because he was truly a Yinzer with Pirate blood. His Dad played with and was good friends with Roberto Clemente and was supposed to go on the flight with him to PR, but Clemente told him to stay at home and celebrate New Year’s with his family.
Nomar is the hardest hit honestly. Yes others lost more money, but Nomar falling apart with the sox and traded on the DEADLINE of that 04 season... He lost 28 million and his best run at a ring. Sheeeesh
I'll give you 2012, which was after he turned down the contract and he played a key role in game 1 of the World Series, but 2014 he only pitched in one game in the playoffs that was already a blowout.
You’ll be adding Juan Soto to the list in my opinion. These guys forget that they are human and can possibly be one injury away from never playing again.
I think a full season of hitting before Manny Machado will do wonders for his upcoming season. The Padres clubhouse has just been improving, year to year, and if Tatis comes back with a good attitude, I think the chemistry, and situation of being with an organization committed to winning will help a lot.
Lincecum’s isn’t that outlandish, but the pay day wasn’t based off performance. It was definitely the giants knowing if they didn’t give him an extension the fans would be outraged. So they ate 35 mil and on him to appease the fans
Aaron Judge is now the poster boy for players who bet on themselves and won. He turns down a $213m contract extension with the Yankees for 7 years. Then he carries the team to the playoffs, breaks Mantle's record and is named MVP. Result: $360m for 9 years and named team captain.
You got the years mixed up on Mookie..Dodgers were champions in 2020..no way the Sox couldve offered him a deal after the dodgers signed him to a huge extension...great vid tho!
Gonzalez really screwed that one up eh? I don’t like Comerica park either but 140,000,000 reasons to change my mind is hard to ignore, especially 20 years ago when 140,000,000 was stupid money. Now it’s just “yeah I’m rich” money…crazy
