I don't think oil interests in the middle east will be important for the EU in the future. At this moment the middle east makes up less than 20% of European oil imports. Moreover with rise of EV's and bans on combustion cars, the need for oil will drop dramatically. Even bussiness as usual scenario's expect a 50% drop in use by 2050, a carbon neutral policy would diminish it by around 80-85%
If solar power becomes a thing, North Africa and the Middle East will again become very relevant to the energy sector, as they also happen to have a vast expansive desert and a lot of sun
@@savioblanc North Africa due to proximity with the EU? Sure potentially. Middle East less so. This isn't like with the oil that can only be gotten in certain places. Solar energy can be gotten everywhere that has the right climate/sunshine.
6:00 "Quite literally comparable to the invasion of Normandy in its difficulty" Normandy was among the least defended beaches. The bulk of the German landing defenses were positioned at Calais. A well and fully defended coastline (especially one as small as Taiwan's is still practically impossible to invade even with at the very least a long naval and aerial siege of the point of invasion, but America has a superior navy and airforce so an invasion of Taiwan is pretty much out of the question.
United States of America * has a superior navy, *for the moment* ! China is hugely and rapidly expanding his navy in the last months, and it's quite frightening, because they are planning to continue expand it. So we can expect them to use it... Maybe to claim south China Sea, or maybe Taiwan. But more certainly both. And wasn't Normandy poorly defended thanks to counter espionnage, and because false information were given that an invasion was planned elsewhere?
china actally has the strongest navy and could easly bombard a small fortifies position and take it then causing a collapse of the fortification as the soliders would turn to keep the chinese soidiers from pushin
All they have to do is wait 70 days for their naval invasion to prepare, not run out of oil, and control the sea for one hour. Then they’ll probably have to assign an offensive commander and general to try and take the island, they could probably use some command power to get this done. If they use 40-width divisions, Taiwan is screwed because they don’t have enough military factors to equip 40-width divisions, and they have 10 infrastructure and 1 state so they can’t build more.
@@imperialfront6366 Not the strongest navy the strongest coastal navy, in a blue water war where US and Chinese navys fight in the actual Ocean and not near Chinese or American coasts the Chinese navy would be absolutely demolished. But an invasion of Taiwan only requires a coastal navy.
You're right I hope Africa stays under our influence as white people. It would be a disaster if they stopped pairing with us and backed the Chinese instead. As long as we don't coup the leaders or sow division like we always do I'm sure they'll fair fine with no dictators
CANZUK was likely not mentioned a lot as the idea of a “CANZUK” nation is unlikely to ever happen. The four countries are too far apart to be ruled as one, and if they were it would be a very weak union. CANZUK is unlikely to be anything else than a trade agreement and some cooperative foreign strategy. Due to geography, the four nations will have much more trade with their neighbours, Canada to the US, UK to Europe, and OZ and NZ to Asia-Pacific. Meaning any integrated trading block will have to pander to all four nations. E.g. Canada may oppose a very in depth CANZUK agreement if it affects their agreement with the US. So CANZUK a simple trade agreement with allows Canada to increase non-US trade (becoming less dependent on the US) is good but a very close union in which Canada may face difficulties with the US may be problematic as the US will always be more beneficial to Canada than the other CANZUK combined, cause geography. Plus considering the UK can barely hold its union together, doubt a CANZUK can too. If long-distanced unions work in the future, then a world one would be more likely. Cooperation between the four can indeed increase but it will likely be voluntary and very loose. Canada has different priorities than the UK or NZ in domestic affairs. And due to geography, Canada if it has to choose would choose the US over Canzuk in terms of a trading dispute, cause the US is bigger.
1:07 should include Georgia because country strives for EU membership for nearly 2 decades now and is has very deep relation with Europe via politics and economy
As a Finn I have thought of this. I don't trust the EU myself so having the northern countries together instead of teaming up with Bryssels would be my favourite scenario as we could keep our cultures.
Sounds like an idea. I wonder, how likely would be for Norway to join one? They seemed to be rather opposed to such commitments, at least from an outsider's perspective
@@10Tabris01 I would say most Norwegians when asked in person if they want stronger Nordic ties or stronger eu ties, they would usually say they want more Nordic ties. The reason it doesn’t seem like we would not commit is because there is no serious movement or opportunity for us to show that we want one. From all the Nordic people I have asked have been quite positive to the idea.
@@10Tabris01 There is widespread support for Nordic cooperation. The Nordic Council used to be influential but has unfortunately lost most of its powers because of limitations imposed by the EU. Considering the extensive benefits and rights secured through the Council over the years, its reduced importance is lamented by many. Establishing a federal state is a completely different issue. Norway is, for good reasons, quite reluctant. In a recent poll, 66% of the Norwegians were against a federation (Danes 46%, Finns 38% and Swedes 35%). The figures tend to go up and down depending on the international political climate, but the proportions remain the same.
You should probably mention that most African countries' debt loads aren't actually to China. China actually represents a surprisingly small proportion of African debt. The main reason you see African & Asian countries look to China is that it creates a scenario where the West is forced to make better offers for their allegiance. It's basically a rehash of the US-Soviet conflict, except with more money and less guns & ideological mouthbreathing. They're not pledging allegiance to Beijing, they're putting that allegiance up for auction to whichever power is willing to pay the most, and until that point comes they'll play off Beijing and DC for incremental increases in aid/investment. *'The West' can actually be referred to as a single entity at least in this specific field of competition, because Western aid is basically governed by standards set by the OECD-DAC (these standards became impractical coming into the noughties, since market rates actually went below the 'aid' rates), so their T&Cs are basically the same no matter if the donor state is Germany, Canada or Japan. 'Hur dur debt twap' is a memetic talking point, but it's not really borne out any changes in the foreign policy of most of those countries beyond 'huh, we should probably avoid pissing off the largest trading partner we have'. That's not the same as falling under one's sphere of influence. Any hypothetical Nile conflict in the near future would ironically be fought with French arms on both sides. Chinese interests in East Africa are primarily economic at this point (projecting that far into the future is basically playing make-believe with guesstimates).
@@edk487 Usually an economic project is better than a civil ear backed by the west. What else can africa do? A westerner like you shouldn't tell africa what to do.
Your claim that young Norwegians are increasingly pro EU is strange. The last referendum was 25 years ago. In the time that has passed since then a large number of those who voted have died off. If, as you claim the younger generation is increasingly pro union, then it would be reasonable that there would be a pro-union swing in the statistics. This is not the case, anti-EU sentiment has grown, much to the despair of Europabevegelsen (European Movement). While it is correct that amongst the youngest (15-19) there is in general a more favourable sentiment towards Europe, you fail to take into account that in Norway there is a division between the EU (membership) and EØS(EAA). There is a 60/40 majority in favour of the EFTA/EU agreement but a 60/40 majority against EU membership. Nor have you taken into account that the major pro EU parties have basically given up on the project. Then there is BREXIT, and the sky rocketing electricity bills that are a result of Norway entering the EUs power trading agreement, and there is Hungary and Poland, +, +. There is, I think a far greater possibility of an independent Scotland joining the EU, then there is of Norway joining.
I think that we Norwegians should be part of a new European federation. We trade for the most part with the eu. And I would argue that the efta/eøs deal is quite undemocratic. This is a big discussion in Norway and it always will be. But I also think that Scandinavia should unite before entering such a federation so that we can have more of a say. Since we are economically strong and put in more money that’s we get out I think we need a stronger voice in the union.
@@patriarchy8858 There are always pro's and con's. I voted for the EU in the last referendum. Having seen how the EU has developed since then, I not would vote the same way today. As for an European Federation...it depends on how it looks. At the moment things don't look particularly good, but we will have to wait and see - things change. If the elephants (France, Germany, Spain..) were broken up into their constituent parts....well, "like barn leker best". That is unlikely to happen and while elephants are by and large peaceful, even kindly creatures, laying down with an elephant will result in tragedy for a smaller animal. The differences between the different areas of Europe are great. What seems like a good idea in Berlin could be a disaster in Tallinn or Athens. The greater the distance between the political centre and the periphery the worse it is for those in the periphery. An Oslo centric Norway is not good for Finnmark, that imbalance is addressed from time to time, by Oslo. But I am not at all certain that that would be the case in a Brussels centric European Federation. Big is NOT necessarily better.
Good video! I have a suggestion for an alternate history video where England remains part of Denmark. That could be very interesting, and I'd love to see what you could do with it.
@@demonic_myst4503 You're right that Denmark usually only controlled part of England, but they briefly conquered all of England. My idea for a video was one where Denmark keeps England.
@@demonic_myst4503 Yeah, good point on Ireland Scotland and Wales would have more sperate identities. I'm not sure I agree that the British empire wouldn't still exist. Even if not as big, I feel confident Danish England would have a colonial empire. And even if they didn't, I would be shocked if none of the Celtic nations had a colonial empire. Still, thank you for the reply!
One thing about the vid is that from what I have experienced and seen young Norwegians are not increasingly pro EU. The most popular parties for young people in Norway are usually the parties that are against the EU and a lot of younger Norwegians are sceptical to the EU in it's current form.
@@FuckGoogle2 Ukraine isn't "not allowed," though... At least to my understanding. Instead, it's more like they have a gun pointed to their head by Russia, saying "I dare you."
I don't like this comparison. It makes it seem like "All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others" means that both parties of animals, the equals and more equals, can have a choice in HOW equal they are. The quote actually means that they don't have a choice. Meanwhile any federalization in EU will be with the express permission of all EU states, and more autonomy will probably be a presented option. What I mean is, I don't like this comparison, because in sentence A, you have a choice, but in sentence B, you don't.
I recently heard that China is openly expressing interest in Taiwan again. I also think China is facing more trouble at home than they let out. It might be as you said sooner than any of us would like. They might want to use Taiwan as a distraction as they’re using many other things as scapegoats right now. Again, I think they’re facing more trouble than they let out, scapegoats always give that away in a dictatorship. They’re getting richer, but that’s exactly what could be causing people to be more confident in their doubts. I’m speculating btw, if that wasn’t clear.
It would be very risky economically if they did it now, considering they have the rolling blackouts, microchip shortage, real estate situation and flooding that has effected quite a few of their coal mines. Governments have done distractions of invasions and such when they are in dire situations in the past but also the successful distractions only work if its quick and does actually help the economy.
@@tomtcom I see. I wasn’t expecting it to happen for several years, that would have surprised me anyway. But you’re probably right, it’s not going to be all too soon.
There is currently a "civil war" going on in the party. There are two major factions, Jiang Zemin and Xi Jinping. Look at high profile people, actresses, military personnel and companies like Evergrande, that all got fired, arrested, refused bailouts or shut down, they all got ties to the Jiang Zemin faction. The "election" if you can even call it that, is in about one year or so and there have already been one assassination attempt on Xi's life, but this year is also the most important since he need to use this to take out the Jiang faction and gather followers to his own. They have literally gone back to what the imperial courts used to do. Xi is certainly the loudest when it comes to talks about invading Taiwan, especially when it was leaked that material in schools talked about how they needed to be welcoming to their possible future Taipei (what the CCP calls Taiwan) classmates. Xi is also investing heavily into the military whereas Jiang invested into the police/security force. So my guess is Xi would probably wait until re-election. Wouldn't be surprised if it happened soon after that though, China sees the US as weak after Afghanistan and frankly don't respect Biden in general. They suffer from coal shortages, soon clean water shortages and floods which could make them even more reliant on food imports, a stagnating economy and an aging population. All we can be certain of is that Xi will do whatever it takes to stay in power.
Although the odds are quite literally zero, I sometimes ask myself what would happen of The United States, Canada, Mexico, and Greenland all united into a single nation
America can literally return to an isolationist state as they would have all the resources and manpower they need or ever wanted, with Canadian oil and Mexico serving as their mini China.
I'd say this theoretical country would get the continental bonus for North America, and then be able to steamroll South America. From there, it'd be very easy to take over the world. Good game strategy, 10/10 Risk Game.
@@oneringtorulethemagicarp7199 But with a younger and working-age population The Chinese demographics "advantage" are just bullshit if you count with the average age and fertility of their families. Besides that, the only military advantage of China is their manpower, but in case of a war between China and a western power, I think that (diplomatically) the western powers would find a quick way of getting more manpower I mean, Indians really don't like China and they have a rapidly growing economy and a very large population :)
the only way how to punish China for violent takeover of Taiwan without killing millions in the process would me total and complete economic isolation which means the rest of the world would have to end its manufacturing reliance on China basically overnight. It is doable though but first 2 to 3 years would suck and pretty much every climate goal would have to go up the smoke stack.
Maybe growing support especially from younger generations and the future need to be protected and have a voice in the international stage against giants like the US, China, Russia and other emerging countries like India.
As a Norwegian, I do see how younger people see a benefit from EU, because they don't know real life. I wasn't against a union, but I wasn't pro-union either, but I knew some that were, but as time progressed, we all agreed in the end that a union would leave our country less manageable we can't control our own laws without EU interrupting and we can't close our own borders because we want too, and it would cost more than what we would gain, we're currently in the economic thing, and I think that's more than enough.
“They don’t know real life” just look one time outside of your window for yourself. Every member can control their own laws. The EU interferes when you lower your human or worker laws. (And not even there when you look at Poland and Hungary) Countries are randomly closing their border especially right now. You also don’t have to take refugees if you don’t want to (which is the current anti eu propaganda going around) like Hungary, Poland or other Eastern European countries.
@@Fabii2000 Sure.... I still don't see why we should be in EU, EEA is enough. According to a study a few years ago, Norway follows more rules from EU than some EU members does, like Poland, Hungary etc. EU members also don't like that Poland and Hungary wants to have more border control, which goes against the Schengen agreement and EU's foreign policy. So you can be apart of the Union without following the union's law and policies, which I'd say is a big reason to not join, also there's fishing laws in the EU, so no thanks.
@@Carlium “Norway follows more rules form the EU than some EU members do”. There you have a reason to join. You have to deal with laws which your country didn’t make or wasn’t part of the democratic process where Norway could said no these changes would be better or what ever. Therefore no voice. In the EU your country would get a voice. Your country is part of the Schengen Agreement. Therefore you have as much control of your borders as all other EU members have. So your argument is rather being outside of a union which dictates laws against your will just because you need the benefits of their open economy, because you don’t like to follow their rules and laws, which most of them you already follow because of your high human right standards. Fishing laws… yes that’s a reasonable argument. But fishing isn’t even 2% of your total GDP (Edit: 2% are agriculture + forestry + fishing, so even less than 2%) Less than Estonia and Finland.
@@Fabii2000 there's also a few economical reasons to why we also want to be outside EU. As I said it's more than enough with EEA, that's the reason to why we have high energy prices, we must help other countries with their power issues which results in higher price to us, it's stupid, and if we we're in EU, then we must export a fixed amount as far as I know, with EEA we can at least try to regulate it. There's also been cases where EU laws that was forced on members was only being considered before they where discarded here, some of them where nonsense, so therefore the government just said no, even though everyone else in the EU had to, I forgot what it was but it has happened. In summary, Norway going into the union would have little to no impact on the financial side of the board, which is what EU's point was to begin with, we're already having a good standard of living, so there's no real reason to join.
@@Jake-dh9qk Deeply etched in the psyche of the Chinese nation is the burning desire to somehow eventually reconstruct the bygone Chinese Empire the way it was before 1840.
@@CeciliaPeng That would mean it has to take reestablish the tributary systems again. This is one of the reasons for China's downfall, they cant repeat the same mistake of becoming complacent and hubris in their influence.
The issue is that younger S. Koreans don't _want_ to reunify. A united Korea is one where the South's booming economy is chained by the northern deadweight. Modernizing the North is a horrifying prospect for the South.
@neatling can you do a multi part series with MONSIEUR Z. what if US AND CANZUK united into a single federal democratic state and what if European Union unites into a single federal democratic state. and if you can try to predict what a POST WW3 world would be life. if ANGLOSPHERE AND EUROPEAN UNION would win. a VIDEO on that be epic. and if you can do a part 2 on your space politics video WHAT IF ANGLO-SPHERE AND EUROPEAN UNION one world government be like for space colonization of freedom of space.
@@zulthyr1852 Then why Cyprus is united? Looks like the author is just trying to legalize and normalize occupation via redrawing sovereign country's borders. It's inappropriate. Something like this would be seen as normal in a wargame video of a 12yr old, not in the serious video author was trying to make. He is just painting the map as he wants. Trash video with close to no real backing.
If you do another one of these you should consider the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States. I could see that becoming a country of countries, similar to the United Kingdom, but on a smaller scale.
This more integrated, single-state EU would almost certainly come into conflict with China over involvement in Africa. I don't think it would be a direct military conflict, but rather a competition for resources and alliances similar to the U.S. and China in the Asia-Pacific now. The U.S. appetite for wars and intervention in the Middle East or elsewhere has largely faded, but it's easy to imagine an EU-led military venture into Africa for peacekeeping or simply as part of a security alliance. This new EU would also get drawn into other areas of conflict, most notably in the Arctic with Russia and in the Antarctic over Marie Byrd Land, the melting of which could unveil a lot of new resources and which is currently unclaimed. So as you say, it's a fallacy to think this EU would be nothing but a force for peace and love in the world.
I just found your content man, its amazing! idea: after Putin gone, maybe Russia joins EU?? Just imagine the new geopolitic order that would form from that. EU and Russia together would be the new superpower by miles!
I don't want nor need a state merger with Germany, France as a Latvian. We don't want to be unrepresented in our own country. It will also not turn out as good as the ideologs want you to believe. You can also also look at the state merger of Yugoslavia and their break up aftermath.
Honestly I think a Japanese-Taiwanese union is more likely than a Chinese-Taiwanese unification due to Japan's collapsing birthrate making the country need to take drastic nations to increase population growth, and Taiwan wishing to be protected by a nation with a common enemy. However it's highly unlikely not just because their cultures are incredibly different, but also because Japan has a history of colonization in the region, so many people will be wary of letting Japanese troops onto Taiwan.
@@andreilin113 That won't happen because US won't allow it. They don't want Japan to start forming strong ties with other nations because it would give Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other asian nations leverage against US. US wants to keep the small asian countries divided, yet under their zone of influence.
If were being honest and optimistic then the UK would probably rejoin the EU at some point. Brexit has been such a disaster for the UK economically and diplomatically that i really doubt that leaving the EU will be permanent.
I feel like the "Optimistic" EU map borders should include Scotland. After Brexit, there's a higher chance another independence referendum is successful. Many Scots want to be part of the EU. Not saying it's likely, but just a possibility.
If Europe federalized, a lot of countries would likely break away. Countries like Denmark, Sweden, Poland and Hungary are purposefully stalling centralizing acts and have exemptions from many EU laws in place. The balkan countries would also leave as their national identities are strong, while countries like Portugal, Spain, Italy and many others' willingness to participate in such are unclear and/or undecided. If the EU unified, it would likely be centered around France, Germany and the Benelux while Spain, Italy and Portugal may or may not participate.
I dont expect them to become a country, but It would be really nice If Mercosul became more like European Union, with free trade between members, and that all the countries in South America mecame members.
I think that even if Mercosul had the same laws as the european union, it would not happen like it does there. In Europe, countries are small, it takes 1 hour, 6 hours MAX to get to another country, and you dont even have to own a car, since you can go by train. Here in Brasil, if you get out of a big city and want to get to another country you need at least 10hr. Not realisti
@@luisdomingues9248 True. Public transport in the EU is generally top-notch, and also we don't have a huge jungle in the middle; flying by plane anywhere takes 3-4 h at most, and high-speed trains are also available. Road quality etc. is also generally better (I used to live in Uruguay for a while, visited southern Brazil; it wasn't 'bad' there, but the difference is definitely visible). South America is also generally much more sparsely populated. On the other hand, in your case it's only 2 major languages, if we ignore Suriname/Guyana/French Guiana, which is very good for trade relations and communication in general; both could be the official languages in such a union, no problem. Here it's dozens of languages, most drastically different from each other. I do agree with you though, it's probably not very realistic without much better trade routes/faster travel which means better infrastructure as well. Overall, it would be great for you guys to come up with some unions... like modern Gran Colombia or something... but probably unifying the entire continent is not going to be possible for many, many decades, if not centuries.
All very fascinating. But the tawain issue could happen sooner than people think. and the Koreas could come back to. It's all about leadership or lack there of, from the western world.
a peaceful reunification is the likeliest way china and taiwan will merge. This could be because of a various things, but tension between a conservative kmt govt and the younger progressive movement, along with a collapse of the taiwanese economy(semiconductors are already beginning to be produced around the globe and esp in mainland china) could motivate an already unpopular faction in the taiwanese govt to negotiate a union. In this case, they would retain powers and most likely have a lot of autonomy and control for the first decade or so. I can imagine nationalists and secessionists would riot pretty consistently, so we could see the same brutal suppression of opposition as we saw in hong kong
What about the Romanian-Moldovan union? It is the most likely one to happen, no? Why has it been ignored in this video? I would have expected it to be brought up in the EU state merger, since the likelihood of it happening is above the one of a Irish union, but hey, maybe it's less well known.
