The Curious Timing and Consequences of Alexei Navalny's Death 

Navalny died of living in Russia, the second most common form of death in Russia. The most common cause of death is participating in a special military operation.

Is there a doctor on this plane!? William Spaniel: I don't know if this guy is gonna live or die, but we can model this situation with lines on maps

Came for the Navalny analysis, stayed for the inter-politcal analysist drama 😅

This whole thing feels like when someone fake coughs to cover up a fart, but they screw up the timing so the cough only draws everyone's attention to them, and then they fart.

I have a suspicion that March in Russia won't be a quiet month. Probably a lot of air raid sirens and strange buzzing sounds coming from the sky.

7:58 Gerasimov... that's not your window! Silly goose

Valeri Bojarinev appeared to be a high-ranked prison officer and he was responsible for Navalny. Bojarinev was just promoted few days after Navalny died. According to the Kremlin, it is a normal procedure and not linked to the death of Navalny.

I do love a good sarcastic rant, thanks....

It seemed especially awkward for Tucker Carlson, almost as if Putin pulled the plug at that moment to humiliate TC and rub in just how much of an impotent tool he really is. Irrational yes, but none of them are playing with a full deck. PS; The US has made many terrible mistakes and Bush 2 couldn't even count to 52 much less play with a full deck.

Damnit Jim, I'm a doctor, not a physician!

"I have a doctorate, but I'm not that kind of doctor." Lol that's awesome! I wish I could say something like that. "I have an MBA, but I'm not that kind of... asshole?" Doesn't work nearly as well.

I am Russian and I don't agree with your assessment of the situation. Yes, everyone understands the risks, but people get accustomed to current reality and we grew accustomed to war and repressions. We have stopped being scared by army discreditation laws, being called foreign agents or extremists. Then Nedezhdin's campaign happened, which helped him gather significant support (around 10%, which is a lot for a country like Russia). People have shown that they are tired of being scared and they want change. Putin has decided to remind everyone that he is a ruthless killer, that there is no hope for change. Navalny's death had a very demoralizing impact on Russian opposition, I am not sure that we will be able to bounce back. Julia Navalny might be the person who can see it through. I hope and believe. Russia will be free.

what is your PHD in? I'm assuming a doctorate of lines on maps isn't a thing yet

Curious timing as well, I recently watched _The Courier_ with Benedict Cumberbatch. It's about a British salesman, Greville Wynne, being roped into helping Soviet colonel Oleg Penkovsky defect (he gave the West the scoop that the USSR was placing the missiles in Cuba); both get caught and get sent to Soviet prisons. Can't help but think of the harsh conditions Wynne endured until his release (Penkobsky was executed), and how bad Navalny had it with all the attempted poisonings, improsonments, and kangaroo trials.

Shoiguuu! Gerasimov is looking through the window at 7:56

I was not prepared for that epic display of sarcassm at 3:20 And it just kept getting better!

A clear message to any opposition. I truly wonder how the election ballot is going to look like. I expect a North Korea-esque single choice option.

Curious timing, indeed... Excited to watch :)

Oh my Gods, the sarcasm is dripping, caustic, probably radioactive, and PERFECT.

I really love your rant, I’ve been considering writing an article about a similar situation in a field a little closer to my expertise. I’m glad to see that others have noticed how many talking head “expert analysts” just run with the very first, most basic, simplest explanation for why anything happens.

There's some kind of Gerasimov on the wing of the plane!

The sass and sarcasm is why I am here for every video. 3:20 just had me rolling

7:58 Wherasimov !

It will take a couple of weeks for the Moscovians to decontaminate chemical warfare agents that may have been used on Navalny. It is important for later specialists to assess the body NOT for a possible chemical warfare agent but for unique BREAKDOWN products (Novachuk agents will have fluoride organics). Please contact Scott Cairns at Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the Hague, Netherlands.

7:55 is that where he's keeping the ammo?

Quite the :D addition of #wheresgerasimov @ 7:56

Thanks William. I love your videos

Would love to be able to listen to your books on Audible. Oh and great videos by the way.

Where did you complete your thesis? May you share it with us?

Late Onset Sudden Infant Death Syndrome to be exact 😆

Thank you for the video.

I enjoy these videos, keep them coming!

Great episode 🫡

Nice to know that some people still have "guts!"

@Gametheory101, Great info and thought revoking as always! Have a look at Johnny Harris' How US Companies Get Away with Fueling Russia’s Military video. Perhaps you can shed some more light and draw greatly needed attention to the semiconductor business and the bypassing of sanctions.

Navalny's existence was tolerated for a decade. Boris Nemtsov - a true visionary and liberal force, was gunned down by the Kremlin in 2015. That's something most people outside of Ukraine likes to ignore. Nemtsov was the guy Navalny thinks he was. The latter didn't come anywhere close. Most favorable thing I can say of Navalny is that he's the enemy of my enemy.

I was under the impression that Ukraine "used" the Navalny as "cover" to announce the withdrawal of their troops.

Not sure I buy into the reasoning here. The Putin regime has done plenty of timing blunders and disjointed actions that hamper it. It's not a unified moloch with one will. It's quite possible that a Putin loyalist had Navalny murdered to send a message at the same time Putin himself found it horrible timing.

Thank you very much!

I usually love your videos and the analysis they bring but feel little to nothing was said here. Examples and hypotheticals would have gone a long way to separate yourself from mainstream reports. The sarcastic open followed by only vague allusions doesn't quite cut it for your usual standard of insight. I'm trying to give good faith critisism as you're one of my favourites. This just wasn't great and there's better analysis and challenging discuasion in the comment section which should almost never happen :p

From the start the whole navalny thing felt less like a direct order from Putin and more like a prison guard assigned to do Navalnys daily beating going a bit overboard to me. I think the Kremlin was content in just letting him continue to become more and more obscure and forgotten

The timing of Navalny's death, as explained by his team in their youtube videos on the topic, was a consequence of prisoner exchange negotiations. The idea is that Navalny's death removed his release as an option in the negotiations.

1:13 Nice Treasure Planet reference ;)

Me and a lot of others here probably would say Avdiivka is the bigger impact on war, but we don't actually know that. This media coverage that you highlighted and I too find hard to understand is something that many people will understand without context: an underdog getting bullied by evil dictator. Ideas are powerful and most people don't do well with facts, it is through these kinds of personal stories they can understand what others who paid attention have known for long. It can also propel to action though we can't count on any, just have to see how things go.

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The clock rotation saga continues!

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good reporting...

you have to look at who has an interest, but not only an interest but who is capable x

Your analysis makes sense. But, if that would indeed be the line of reasoning within the kremlin, wouldn't you expect them to allow nadezhdin to compete then?

Great video, thanks

No lines on maps this time?

Lines on maps are my favorite thing.

Hi, maybe someone here can help me out. I was trying to look into people falling out of a window. Because as someone who worked in all sorts of hospital sections, E.R., I.C.U. surgery, anything, where you might end up after falling out of a window, and as someone who spend 34 years with... well... being alive, I never, not even once, encountered someone who accidentally fell out of a window. Some who did it on purpose, yes. But no accidents. My room mate told me, that she knows a guy who fell from a balcony while drunk, that's all. So with that in my mind, I did some research. I wanted to find and compare some numbers from russia with numbers from the west/or anywhere outside russia. I could approximate the russian numbers, by adding up "news" articles (RT for example) but I didn't find ANY numbers for Germany, the UK, the US, the EU, France, Australia you name it... There are numbers from the US about small children, but that's not relevant. I want cases of adults, heathy and non intoxicated, falling out of their window. Just like russia portraits it. But I just can't find them. And I start to think that all this means, that it happens so infrequent, that we don't even bother keeping book. Either that or I just can't find the studies. But I don't even found stats on drunk people or balcony's. I tried it in German and English, to no avail. So if someone has some data on this, I'd love it if you could leave a link in the comments. Otherwise I'm left with the question, that's already burning in my head. Why the hell, if you'd fake accidents, would you invent one, that doesn't happen in the real world, instead of one of the million things that kill people every day, every where? People slip in their shower all the time. (tbf, you'd need running water for that)... I just don't get it. Which brings me to the next point, but maybe I'm just lost in translation here, isn't "sudden death syndrome" that thing that just happens to baby's?

One thing I've noticed a total lack of commentary on is the election of Imran Kahn in Pakistan just immediately prior to Navalny's death. Kahn had been arrested and removed from the ballot, seen as a populist figure who called the ruling government illegitimate. He won election on basically a write-in campaign from a jail cell. I think this scared the shit out of Putin and made him jump the gun.

So what exactly is Spaniel saying? Is he saying Russia messed up over the timing of the Nevalny assassination?

Gerasimov outside Bidens plane window seems dangerous. I hope the plane wasn't in the air, or he's getting the Prigozhin treatment.

Wife to Alexei told at Channel "Liberty Radio" she will continue the fight. See her there. Help the cause.

7:56 another one gone in the window? 🤔

10:08 Gerasimov 🤣

Your video editting is so good!

Perhaps protests are more likely when it's not -20 degrees outside

Hi William! Or should I say... Dr. Spaniel!

I literally waited to read about this in the news because I wanted to hear your take on it first

Reminds me of Nicolas 2. There was brusilov offensive in 1916. It was a success on the surface, but underneath a it was a complete disaster for russian army morale. War was going for 2 years. Unfathomable death toll. Static Frontline. Economy finally started to go down. All of that reminds me of today situation. After 6 months of brusilov offensive Nicholas 2 was overthrown. Another 8 and russia fell into catastrophic civil war. Something tells me if this clown ( Putin) gets quietly reelected he will doom himself and Russia to an abyss.

Fine. I’ll buy your book, you’ve worn me down

More than 70 percent of the American public said they support continued military aid to Ukraine in the latest survey by the American polling organization View Research. The Gallup poll also found that only 15 percent of all respondents said that Congress was "right" to adjourn without voting on the Ukraine support bill due to Republican opposition. It seems that there is a big disconnect between the cultists who are running rampant on the Internet advocating anti-Ukraine pro-Russia and the average American in their attitudes.

“Krieger’s a doctor” “NOT THE MEDICAL KIND” Krieger: “technically not the other kind, either”

This analysis regarding the timeing assumes, that the election is the most dangerous thing for the Putin regime in the next months. Assuming the death was intentional and acknowledging the timeing was suboptimal for the election, then the question is: what other upcoming event could threaten regime stability? One possible answer from my point of view would be an upcoming large scale mobilization. In this case it might be convenient to get rid of a possible figure head for protests well ahead of time.

If Navalny's death was planned to occur during this period, I'd be inclined to think that the Avdiivka news was supposed to dominate headlines and serve as a distraction - especially in the Russian Federation but also in the West. After all, it could be argued that the two events present one cohesive narrative from the Russian Government's perspective, even if they don't openly say as much. The message being; "Russia is advancing on the battlefield, making strategic gains and victory is inevitable". It is reinforced by the narrative that "Ukraine and the West should hold onto hopes for political change in Russia. Putin’s grip on power is strong and there is no alternative in Russia." I've heard Ukrainian commentators hoping Putin will be overthrown and this removes one of their greatest hopes from the table at the same time as the fall of Avdiivka, which has long been a symbolic position on the Ukrainian battlefield. There are definitely those in Ukraine and the West that want to hear this message and will promote it. It's a message that could also be intended for the domestic audience in Russia. Once again, a popular opposition leader with a large network of supporters has been killed - years after he was essentially silenced and months after everybody knew it would happen (given the long history of using remote gulags to kill political figures in Russia). It was inevitable, so what's the point in voting for somebody else? You're better off playing it safe and voting for Putin... If nobody besides those who are already inclined to protest against Putin's Government come out to protest now, it's just a bonus for Putin, because they are self-identifying and can be detained / imprisoned over the election period if they are apprehended. So, I'd say this was probably a deft political move - if Navalny was, in fact, murdered. Otherwise, it could just be a happy (or unhappy) coincidence, depending on your perspective. We should also remember that a defamatory narrative around Navalny has been widespread in Russia for years, so he wasn't all that widely liked beyond well-informed urban circles and he did a lot to harm his own health since being detained. I like to tell people, you can only do a Gandhi if you are popular and the people you are protesting respect your rights or are too afraid to harm you. If they don't fear harming you and are happy to arbitrarily detain you, and your popularity isn't all that widely spread amongst the general public, what's a hunger strike going to achieve? Sorry if that sounds callous. Navalny supported immoral causes in his youth and nobody can really know what his inner thoughts were by 2024. Had he reformed? Perhaps. If he ever became president, would he have stuck to his claimed liberal views of the last decade? We'll never know.

Falling out of a 10th floor window and breaking your neck is really not that surprising. Falling out of a window on the ground floor and still breaking your neck, well that's a little bit more suspicious.

This guy with his ending consonantSSSSSS 0:49 Listen: reasonSSSah! who tf talks like that?

Did I just see the Ghost of Gerasimov?!?

What's going on with thee lnes at 4:33? 😲

Forget lines on a map. New version, lines on a corpse.

Amazes me that no one sees a link between Navalny's death and the fact that his Wife Yulia as attending an anti Putin/Russia security conference in Munich at the time. Why was she there, who had her there etc. We know that is where she as she spoke from there immediately as his death was announced.

As much as I would like to see a peaceful, democratic Russia that is happy to live with its neighbours, I do not think most russians would stand up to their leader.

It sounded like you really needed to let something out with that segment on the obvious analyst

Did Musk kick Nalvanys widow off x?

Beware the ides of March

I suspect that he accidentally died during one of his regularly scheduled torture sessions. Im sure they were supposed to take him up to the edge of de@+h, not all the way. One of the guards was probably forced to take paid leave while his colleagues debate if his actions were consistent with his training and gulag protocols

When is that picture from of protesting Russians with the “Besmertniy volk” banner that William always uses?

Its a pivot toward soviet style authoritarianism

I read that the EU was shocked; if they meant that any other way than "shocked Pikachu", they've not been paying attention.

Putler’s version of an October Surprise.

I get it's not the perfect time, but Putin clearly feels like he's untouchable. Regardless of oh, the timing wasn't perfect. He seemed fine a day beforehand and now they won't let anyone see his body If they really didn't do it, they have every motivation in the world to let people see the body and it would make them seem less harsh and repressive. So I highly doubt they had nothing to do with it

eiiiii you found Gerasimov hahaha nice, that made my day

"I don't want to go on a rant here, but..." -Dennis Miller.

7:55

Thanks for the rant William :) I wouldn't put killing Navalny past Putin but the timing does bother me as you so clearly explain. Bribing off some guards in a remote prison probably isn't too hard. But if not Putin then who? Lets do som good old conspiracy theorizing (sheer speculation of course) : Who benefits from this as it clearly does increase ill will among many Russians before a major mobilization probably in April. The Freedom Of Russia Legion could potentially benefit as it's numbers could increase from the infuriated unwillingly mobilized. The stakes would be quite high if the Legion had pulled it off by themselves however as any evidence of the crime would backfire on them big time. Ponomarev has on several occasions aired his plan of dismantling the Russian federation and replacing it by a confederation of independent states - this would include the regions of the far east. SO - knowing this; what if the true mastermind behind the Navalny assasination sits in a capital starting with the letter B in a country starting with the letter C south of far east Russia with some major territorial interests in that area? Think about it though - what could Putin in reality do about it even if he found out? I am not saying that is what happened but it would be one h... of a story :)

Beware the Ides of March.

The day before an anticipated victory makes perfect sense. The world is talking about Navalny but the Russia media is talking about Advika. February is better than April because good news days cannot be guaranteed.

7:57 Gerasimov in the window

'I'm not that kind of Doctor' 😷

Just think of all of the other people who have received the Navalny Treatment, people we have never heard of.

Hands down on this one, sorry mate

Since Avdivka had reached the tipping point where it soon would lose its 10:1 ratio of Russian casualties to Ukrainians, and was going to have to be surrendered anyway (for now) could Ukraine have deliberately timed the retreat to be overshadowed by the news on Navalny?

You somehow discount the possibility of a dictatorship being not though threw with there choices and inept. Like the original invasion was a masterpiece of planning and foresight. Sometimes the answer is they be stupid.

I love your videos, but lately they haven't felt quite as deep as they used to be. This was more a meta-analysis than an analysis of the situation. It's clear to me why the usual take doesn't add up, but the video ended right when it felt like you were building up to give your own theory

So, the point of this was just to reiterate what everyone already knows, even the part about everyone already knowing it?