Great video T-Pott! I love this discussion, and I have some thoughts to add: 1 - I think a lot of these record losses we’re seeing now may appear more extreme because it’s starting with current prices from a down market and comparing them to all-time highs from 2020 and 2021 when the market was scorching hot and unsustainable. I know we’ll have to wait years for this, but I’m looking forward to seeing prices of the 2023-24 NBA rookie class from 2026 or 2027 compared to what their stuff is selling for at present. Are there any rookies besides Wemby that will see their Prizm Silver PSA 10 sell for over $100 consistently (excluding the initial outliers)? 2 - Expanding on that last point, there were more than a handful of rookies in 2019 who had consistent Prizm Silver PSA 10 sales that were hundreds, sometimes THOUSANDS, of dollars - I love your examples of Bazley, Sekou, and KPJ. What a time to be alive when you could make that much selling those Prizm rookies a few years ago! Those days are gone, and even for the best players, the only PSA 10s that will sell for that much money will be autos, patches, serial numbered cards, rare parallels, and SSP inserts. This means that very few people, if any, will be investing in base cards or common parallels with print runs in the thousands. It will be interesting to see how the more rare and scarce cards hold up over time compared to the more common stuff. I see record low sales on high-end cards every day, so obviously they’re not immune to massive losses, and the overall dollar amount of those losses can be significant. But in the future, I think those cards will still have the most room for growth, because the lower-end cards just won’t have a high enough ceiling to make them worth buying, if you’re planning to hold long-term for a future payoff. There’s just too many of them and not enough end collectors for their values to really grow. 3 - Finally, I really liked the point you made toward the end about the Sam Darnold Kaboom Gold /10 losing a ton of value, percentage-wise, but also pointing out that it still sold recently for nearly $1,000 because it was part of a set that collectors like to chase. As a set collector myself, I totally understand paying sometimes crazy prices for players that you wouldn’t think should sell so high, just because you’re dying to complete a set that you’ve been working on for years. So, maybe that’s a good way to hedge your bets if you’re going to take a big gamble on a prospect. Buy cards from sets that you know collectors like to hoard. Ignoring all the other noise, the only reason any card retains its value over time is if there are enough end collectors who want to own the card for their personal collection. Thats it. The cards with the “middle-finger” historical price charts are the ones that nobody ever wanted to own in the first place, and people were buying them solely as investments. If you buy these types of rare/scarce cards, then at least it won’t be a total loss if you eventually need to liquidate your investment. And who knows, maybe that set explodes in price in the future and the card value increases regardless of player performance. And with the current down market (some high-end cards are back to pre-COVID prices), the buy-in for some of the more rare and sought-after sets (at least in terms of singles, wax prices is a different rant for a different day) is lower than it’s been in years. There could be some opportunities with cards in this category. The hard part is figuring out which sets will be able to maintain this type of appeal over time. Will Kabooms and Downtowns remain this popular in the future? Are they owned by long-term collectors or are they still being held be investors who are waiting for the right time to sell? Only time will tell.
This is one of the best response comments I have had on the channel! All very good points and very well said! Appreciate you watching, as always, and especially for the thoughtful reply!
For someone new to the hobby I appreciate informative responses to these types of videos. It helps understanding where I should channel my focus on a personal collection perspective when it comes to grading. So thanks to the both of you
It's pretty simple, nobody laughs or hates on personal collectors. Nobody will make fun of somebody for overpaying for a card that they really wanted to own. It's the "investors" and resellers we laugh at. The people that constantly turn over cards. People who's primary goal is to fleece whoever they're dealing with. Those are the people we laugh at. Those are the people we root against.
PSA reminds me of the people who sold the picks and shovels to the people looking for gold during the Gold Rush. The ones that sold and supplied the picks and shovels made more than the ones who looked for the gold.
Makes you wonder, in 20-50 years will there be kids who are completing sets from this era for $1.00 a card and all the cards are PSA 10. Just for the humor of it or because they’re serious collectors.
It’s happening now with psa 10s on 20+ years old sets. But in 20yrs it’s prob not psa…there will be a much better way to grade/display/track. Hopefully not NFTs lol
PSA is a casino. My brother grades about 200 cards per month to flip. Theres always some cards of come back 6/7/8/9 he cracks them open resends and they come back 10. Explain to me how a professional grading company can give a card a 6 then a month later give it a 10.
Because it’s a joke at this point. And the only way to fix it is with technology like the company TAG has. If they grade your card and you crack and resubmit it you’re getting the same grade and acknowledgment from them that it’s a resubmit. So you’d be wasting your money
GemMint PSA 10 cards are the biggest scam in the hobby. You can find a PSA 9 that looks exactly like a 10 for a fraction of the price. I’m speaking from a collector’s perspective, as I understand flippers look at the grade. PSA 10 are still a dangerous game the flippers are playing
Couldn’t agree more. If one can’t tell the difference with their naked eye there no justification for a significant price difference. T pot did a great segment on this a few weeks back.
This 2020 to current era of the hobby has been an IQ test for us all. As we've seen, most have failed it and failed miserably. Most people in this era have been trained from birth to be followers, conformists, and give up most or all of their free-will in all aspects of their life. This happened in cards too where a few loudmouths caused so many to buy absolute garbage indiscriminately with no thought given. It's funny now seeing it all play out exactly as some of us knew it would.
Everyone I know in my personal life except one person laughed at me for buying Andres Gimenez and Tim Anderson (ok laugh now about TA7-I agree) but I made a bunch off TA7 after he hit that walk off HR in the field of dreams game, I knew that was his peak and took advantage of it. Andres Gimenez, when he put out a 7 WAR season and finished 6th in MVP I made back all of what I have spent on him, and I have his Topps Chrome RC superfractor auto and many more low numbered autos / 1/1s so those will be held with 0 risk. He’s generational on the defensive side and his bat can heat up enough to produce super high value to the team and have repeat elite level WAR seasons like 2022
Buy what you like! I like collecting baseball cards. I’m working on 2 sets right now. 1962 Topps and 2019 topps update vintage stock. 2 totally different sets but it is what it is like and that’s all that matters. Great video TPott
Of course, as modern players go I think ichiro, pujols, and Ohtani will keep their values. Though Ohtani is still early to tell he already has his place in the hall in just 5 years.
Best video yet, Tpot. This is exactly what I’ve been telling others for decades. If the player isnt Jordan, Brady, Mahomes, Lebron-level talent AND wins championships, has that “it” factor, they typically won’t be worth paying up for. For instance, as amazing of a career that a guy like Tony Gwynn had, super talented, always hit above .300, had a career avg .338!! First Ballot HOF’er. Even he doesnt have cards worth an iota of what a guy like Corbin Carrol does today, after 1 year in the Majors. (Of course, Gwynn came up in the “junk wax era” but at the same time, I believe we are entering that era again, which is a whole different story for another time) My point is, even if Corbin Carrol goes on, has a respectable career, and manages to put up HoF stats, does that mean it makes sense to pay thousands, no 10s of thousands for his cards today?
I collect Scottie Barnes, his stuff used to be so expensive (still is to an extent). I remember his psa 10 contenders gold jersey number auto sold for 10k his rookie year, it just recently sold again for a little over 3000. I still think he can be a superstar player.
Great video! I stay in my lane when it comes to who I buy. I try not to let other influence my purchases but the harsh reality is that everyone seems to buy the trends at some point. Starting to realize that the only safe bet is vintage. Is that a possible video? Show sales as far back as you can with market movers and then show current sales? A lot of generational players in that category.
Geoff when you said Landry Shamet 😳😳😀😀 So many people have no clue what good investing is. Doubling your money every 7 years is average. Seeing the various trajectories of active players, you’re losing so much money! There’s been very, very few generational talents and picking that right one is so unpredictable. People like to gamble and try and day trade cards and doing so, we’ve seen nothing but downward trends! Buying any active player is such a waste with the exception of some like Lebron, Steph, and KD. Thanks T-Pott for sharing! Take care Brother 🤙🏽
Cards make more sense to me a microeconomic framework. I look at rookie cards of players drafted in the same year as substitute goods where if player A does well, then people chase player A and sell player B. A good example of this is Luka Doncic and Trae Young. When Luka got too expensive, people chased Trae. Once Luka's prices became more affordable, people dumped their Trae cards and bought more Luka.
People are looking for value wherever they can find it. Buying Trae is completely independent from buying Luka. If Luka is deemed over valued, they don't immediately go to Trae lol. They could just as easily look at Lebron or any other player they feel like they have a good read on. They look at everything on a case to case basis relative to their popularity and production.
There is value in owning these cards and watching the players we love. That seems to be totally overlooked. If this was ALL about dollars and cents, like stocks, we'd all be over in stocks.
I’d also say though PSA limits supply of PSA 10s artificially on highly produced cards. For example the 1988 Bo Jackson topps rookie PSA 10 has 572. Can’t tell me there aren’t a ton of 9s that would grade a 10. Mass production existed in 1988 I was buying those packs in the gas station in my town of 500.
Always thought provoking information, always enjoy the deep dives. Any way you can compare prices on a player as the market gets saturated with graded supply, even on a super star?
3:31 this is a great point I hope I’m not guilty of this. I will adjust 9:46 I completely agree with this. And that’s why if you sell for profits as the wave recommends this is easy. Don’t get emotional about the ones that go up. It’s a system 🎉 Thank you
This whole hobby is broken again. Topps doesn't appear able to fix it and nothing strategically groundbreaking is going to happen. Honestly, there needs to be major changes and realignments done to help avoid reliving the disaster seen in the 80s and 90s.
I have always been a buy and hold vintage football guy 1977 and prior. Baseball Ryan and Rose. Basketball Dr. J and Kareem. Football HOF only. Slow and steady gains.
Great and powerful analysis. If one is a collector this is great news. Just wait to buy cards at a steep discount. As an investor best approach is being a contrarian. Wait a year or 2 to buy the players at steep discount. Hold for the long term perhaps one or 2 players will make larger gains. If that doesnt happen your cost basis is low so doesnt really hurt much.
Cliff Notes - Collectively, sell all draft class hypes within the first 2-3 years You will make out in the long run, overall What you make in all the busts will counter the loss, if there is a 'generational' talent or two
Great analysis and informative video. Is it possible to do a similiar video looking at players that don't start with the high expectations of being drafted in the 1st round(nfl), lottery pick (nba)? I've wondered if it is more practical to invest/buy around years 2-3 for these types of players that enter in their respective leagues with less hype vs 1st round picks, but I was hoping if the data could prove my point. Thanks
Could have taken all that money invested it in stocks, high yield savings account, Bitcoin, or even gold. Collectibles like sportscards cards, comic books, Lego, Funkos and video games continue to crash.
It’s part of the game. If you’re foolish enough to dish out mucho dollars on an Untested player, then you take that chance of dumping that money down the drain.
Pejorative! “First of all, you’re throwing too many big words at me! Because I’m not understanding them, I’m going to take them as disrespect! Watch your mouth!” Lol! Channeling my best Kevin Hart in The 40 Year Old Virgin! Love your videos though!
The tragic tale of not collecting the base to create sets! Base are considered garbage cards now with people wanting all the influencers BS about top players! The only cards that will be worth the money over time is the GOATS
Can I simply chart A baseball player like Mike Trout without including Brands and Sets? Additionally, can I compare players as a whole vs. another player as a whole? As an example, Trout vs. Harper
Buy guys you like in year 2 or year 3 unless you really love them. I turn solid profits buying backup QBs and guys that are out of mind. I did love Stroud autos this year because panini didn't have his autos. And those are up 400 percent overall. I never graded cards and I been doing this for 22 years it's a joke how PSA grades.
I like this video. Very informative. Question: Can you give me a definition and examples of players that are in your 1 spot? Are we talking about JRod, Bobby Witt? Or are we talking about Carroll and Henderson now that their rookie season is over? Also, can you give me some examples of year 6 superstars? Are we talking about guys like Judge or Alonso? It appears Acuna prices aren’t increasing even with his amazing year. Do you think he is being priced as a Superstar or Gen player. I see him as a Gen player. I’m a MM member. Thanks for your time
The guys I would be referring to, at their starting point, would be any of the most hyped and high expectation rookies each year. So since 2018, for example: 2018 - Acuna, Soto, Ohtani, Devers, Gleyber 2019 - Tatis, Vlad, Alonso, Eloy, Riley, Hiura etc. The year 6 generational and superstar type guys, specific to baseball, I'd include: Pujols, Ichiro, Miggy, Mauer Harper, Trout (though he had lower expectations than Harper), et al And right now it seems Acuna and Ohtani are both on that track. There's a lot of debate around Soto (I personally think he is as well). Alonso, in spite of mashing, isnt getting a ton of love with lower WAR numbers overall. One thing to keep in mind is the anomalous 2 years of insane prices that skew price analysis over the last 5 years.
Something that also annoys me about all your data. Is when it starts. It starts from 2021. When we peaked. Everything will go down from that point. If you had the 2018 stats. You'd see our community is still up like 10X from that year overall. Base prizm lukas were $10 all day. They usually hover at about $70-80 in the offseason. And go up to $120-$140 during the end of the season and into the playoffs. Bare minimum they're 7X still. Thats awesome! We need to not complain so much about these prices and be grateful that they arent back to their old baseline. We havent truly crashed. Just compared to 2021 we have. If you bought your entire collection at the peak and its all down then thats on you. I'm chillin until luka hits $10 a card. My case isnt the standard. But we cant just act like 2021 is normal to be comparing to in any way. It is wildly skewed and i dont think our perspective on the health of the card economy should start at the peak of it. Thats goofy and sets us up to be perpetually disappointed.
Buy studs in the third year and hope for little to no injuries and being traded to a large market team and not being an ahole personality and lots of hope and prayers. Beside that what could possibly go wrong. If it was that easy I would already be in the chips.
It’s common sense, there is only like one player every year from each set and or sport that will actually hold his value or go up. It’s always been like that.
I only sub to creators who report wins AND loses. Taking an L, missing the game winner, forgetting to pick the kids up from school 😅 help us to get better. Teapot the truth!!!
Wow, very well studied. What is up with all psa 10 talk however? What about a SGC 7 or 8, or a KSA 9, or even a raw card? Tough to see people chase all these rookie inserts and lose all that money (most of the time anyway). What happened to just buying what one enjoys and not worrying about a psa 10, that way one won’t have to stress about losing out on money chasing rookie inserts? To each their own but wasn’t this hobby more enjoyable doing it just for fun? Maybe not who knows
Did you see my video a few weeks ago when I talked about how I personally don't understand paying up massive multipliers for a PSA 10? This was a 'soft' follow up to that.
Stupid people affect everyone! Why are wax prices so high? Because the high end value of all cards, even simple base cards, IF GrADED A PSA 10 are already “baked into” the opening box price. Card companies and the big wholesalers are already “speculating” on prices which shouldn’t happen. It didn’t happen in the past. Anyone grading a $3 is crazy. . . Anyone buying graded $3 cards is crazier! I hope grading prices NEVER DROP to below $20 a card. Otherwise the junk slab era will continue! Grading just magnifies the losses when a player sucks. . .
I think you’re overestimating the hype these prospects had. Nobody I know that has actually folllows the nba thought sekou was gonna be the next Giannis. Darius bazley was an interesting prospect but spending $1000 on bazley cards was a clearly dumb move even back then.
Biggest mistake I ever made collecting cards was speculation of QBs and this shitt is printed to the moon. The players I typically bought were so high I got priced out, I will not make that mistake again. Have not really bought any football cards in last couple of years either so I am just another collector the Football hobby lost.
Data is very skewed as you are only using data from both sides of the biggest bubble sports cards has seen since the early 90's. Additionally you example almost all "busts". Why not chart Mahomes from the same time period? Of course investing in players is risky, and everyone trying to find the next Trout, and Brady has been a thing for years. Many years ago there used to be team collectors, and sport collectors. Then the hobby swung mightily to only the tops 5-10 names in each sport being sellable. Maybe the crash will bring back in those team and sport collectors? Maybe the "hobby" is dead and only investors, flippers, and sellers remain?
Its literally from youtubers like you telling people to sub at $200 a card in 2021. never clarifying that not all cards should be graded, and that we were very obviously at a high-point in the hobby. I think about that 18-19 revolution lebron card you pumped every once in a while. That one card encompasses over half the population of all 18-19 revolution. If i'm misremembering who pumped it. Then correct me. But i'm almost certain it was you/sci who pushed that card to be graded because it was his "first lakers rookie" or whatever that means, lmao. Someone pumped it to the moon. It could only be like 5 people who could've done it. Again, if i'm wrong. Let me know. I dont want to be spouting off incorrect info of others. All this data from you just seems so hypocritical when you contributed to these issues. Y'all telling people to invest in rookies all day and then "there's only one scenario where a player goes up past their rookie year, into years 5,6,7." And thats generational talent. Which isnt a yearly occurrence. Generational is about every 15-20 years... so you're essentially saying that if i dont get the #1 guy out of a 20 year timespan that i'm gonna have struggles? That's so fake of you to push players as investments when by your own logic there's only one real option per generation. It just really annoys me how you can pump trashcans for years and then be like "wow! Look at the graph! Nobody but the top 5 guys (if that) are stable in value! So surprising!"
I appreciate where you're coming from and appreciate you watching and commenting, but you must be new to my content. You can check out some videos, like "Don't Get Burned with Sports Cards: A Cautionary Tale" or "Rookie Card Speculation: 4 Different Price Trajectories 📈📉." Since I began making videos on this channel, I have always taken a balanced approach, preached realistic expectations and distinguished between collecting, speculating (short-term) and investing (long-term). Your comment unfortunately seems to be coming from a place of wrong assumptions or maybe what others told you about my content, but it's certainly not based on what I have actually said. Cheers
Stop wasting your time highlighting players that have no talent. Focus on true talent - backed up by solid stats - and let us see how those cards have performed.
He's been pointing all this out for a long time now and it's good trend analysis. We should all be here for the good and bad times not just for the bull runs
@@MarketMovers Market tells otherwise. Once investors left there was nothing left. Does anyone ever do a base set in basketball? A prizm rookie set every year. Is there team collectors? You can't even get $10 for #1 picks that are playing well for their rookies. That's how little demand there is in basketball.
Great video, but also recognize that the negativity in your recent videos is 100% contributing to killing the market. If any prospective card collector watched this video they would be scared off instantly. Hype is officially GONE!
Why on earth would anyone sell any PSA 10's for 99 cents? Regardless who it is. I wouldn't sell a Ryan Leaf PSA 10 for 99 cents. GTFOOH. PS Why don't u talk about how PSA charges more for the same service if it's a 10. They don't do anything different.
Those are auction results. I don’t think people are listing those cards for .99 buy it now, they put that as opening bid and it gets 1 bid. Thus the market value is .99
Goodbye stupid influencers and investors only and not true hobbyist. I love the market now because I can truely appreciate the hobby for what it is, not a profit gouger market! Amen and Hallelujah!
