I did polling for awhile and I keep up with it now. If the data is correct it basically doesn’t matter at all. The strongest opinion they could get was “would consider” changing their support. Anything more and it declined to like less than 7% of his support.
The polls do say like 7% of his support. If that were true it would be a uge deal given that Biden is behind in polling by less than 2% in the tipping point state. I doubt the effect would be 7%. This election is tight, 7% is a lot of a candidates supporters.
@@Me-ui1zy 7% is the maximum statistically and it is being used to optically sway close predictions. Having done this, I am cynical about the veracity of it being that high as well, the number comes from one poll that got super granular when people answered yes to if they would consider not supporting him. Nobody likes when you do that, and it is a leading question in a way that offers people an easy out. It is more likely about 3-5%, which is literally nothing. it is a days worth of change, and since an appeal is likely incoming, wont mean anything long term. Also, fyi, there is no real singular tipping point state.
It's also worth keeping in mind that even relatively small numbers of people changing sides can make a huge difference. I think back in 2016, Trump won 3 of the critical midwest states by around 50,000 votes combined. It was around the same in 2020, and I don't see that trend changing. So if even a few thousand people change their mind, that could tip a state on election day.
@@kokichibestboi most polls have Trump’s favourability around 55% out of Canadians, saying they’d prefer him over Biden in terms of being an ally and much of a greater effect he would have on our economy
The system relying on the opposition hating you is a problem you will only fix with a multi-party coalition system. In such a system one always has to find common ground with people on your side of the fence, meaning extremists have to find a way to work together with more mild right/left wingers. And mild right/left wing have to sometimes even find common ground with the mild opposite side
Yeah it would be so funny if Trump had to hang out in his 30,000-square-foot 13-bedroom 12-bathroom mansion with indoor pool all day. What a miserable punishment, it will surely teach him a lesson.
The thing is I think Beast and Cuban are closest / most likely to run together. Beast could also work with Rock admittedly. Problem is, I'm not sure I see Swift with any of them tbh.
Really like these videos but as Big A stops reading the questions and just skims trough them, really enjoyed iff the chat questions stayed on screen some time so i can read them thank you
One thing I always think about is what crime would Trump have to commit for his supporters to actually condemn him. Like could he pull a homelander and get away with it
Yeah, because allegedly paying a pornstar to keep quiet about a 1 nighter and using election campaign money to do so is the same a mowing down people in the street with your laser eyes...
Remember what he said in 2016, long before maga became an actual serious cult. "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK?"
@@henlo1910 So basically do exactly that which Atrioc mentioned here, in bridging the political divide. Yeah, sounds about right that nothing else could get that kind of voter to reconsider their election decision.
I think it has less to do with the crime, and more to do with who is accusing him. My family are all right leaning, and to them as soon as they heard “New York trial” they instantly did not care about the result whatsoever.
Correction: The US capital gains tax rate is 0% for MAGI up to $47,000. If you include the standard deduction, this means you can realize up to $60,000 in total income and pay $0 in capital gains taxes. $120,000 for a married filing jointly couple. After that, capital gains are 15% until you have $518,000 of income and it goes up to 23.8%. What this means is that at the end of the year, if your income is under $60,000 and you have some stocks with gains, you should consider selling and re-buying (avoiding wash sale rules) to lock in 0% long-term capital gains taxes. It's free money.
capital gains tax is insanely low in the US. The day I learned that passive income was taxed less than active income I lost my mind. THe shit is actually rigged.
According to Festingers cognative dissonance theory. The deconfirmation of him being indicted will only strengthen his devouted followers belief in him
you can’t trust polling but about 20% of trump voters in general say they would at leas THINK about it if he is convicted. The problem is that they will say that this conviction wasn’t fair etc because like… there is nothing they could’ve done to make them believe it
the dnc had the dem primaries on lockdown because biden is an incumbent, so there were no serious opposition. the discontent was shown most clearly in a historical uncommited campaign in almost every state that has the option. In minnesota almost 20% of primary voters were uncommitted, do you know how insane that is? in michigan 100k people showed up to an uncontested(!) primary just to put a blank ballot into the box, and the uncommitted campaign was extremely last minute too.
Trump I understand. He’s got plenty of diehard fans left. I don’t get biden at all. I can only guess someone important wanted him to have the nomination. I have heard people speculate that they are going to sub in someone like newsome at the convention.
Because there’s a wide spread thought process that a vote for someone other than them is a wasted vote. They both have presidential experience and the support of their party
First of all, Biden is the incumbent. It's VERY rare for an incumbent to get ousted in the primaries, even if they're some senile old man. And for the Republicans, I think Ron DeSantis might've stood a chance, but the fact that he ran on an anti-woke agenda while the economy is in the state that it is basically doomed his chances at getting the Republican candidacy. Also a big strength of Trump is that people view his handling of the economy positively which is one of the biggest issues voters are concerned about currently. Also Trump has many of the advantages of an incumbent even if he isn't actually one so it would've been an uphill battle for anyone to beat him.
the party polarization graphic is interesting because dems are pretty much in exactly the same spot they were for decades (which is sorta misleading, they became more progressive on social issues and moved right on the economy), while the gop moved hard right while complaining about the lack of bipartisanship
how many years has it been since south park's voting episode? where they kicked stan out to live in that commune with the people who were marrying animals.... I think maybe people are finally starting to see stan's point
Many voters will forget about this by November - US tribal politics will always have another scandal to divide and trump the last one. The scary thing is that the US democratic system will going forward elevate the House of Cards character that was considered a wild fantasy until you elected Trump.
I think the "polarization" angle is not really as big a thing as people make it out to be, considering that the democratic party under biden is notoriously center right. Like, if the two parties were really polarized we would be having an election where the primary issue would be healthcare or some shit. Both party establishments agree on so much, they just focus on what they don't agree on so that voters will have the illusion of choice.
Biden is the most progressive democrat ever. If anything he is close to being too left for your average American, hes just not a socialist like you want him to be
The most frustrating thing about talking about Trump is most people have such deep emotional investment in him one way or the other, and they have all their personal feelings wrapped up in the topic, so it's impossible to speak on the subject objectively without being accused of doing the same. Like when I say I believe Trump is going to win the election, people think that means I WANT him to win the election. Like, if I said the weather report says it's going to rain tomorrow, does that mean I WANT it to rain tomorrow? That I HOPE it rains tomorrow? I'm making an objective observation of facts as I understand them. But people are so diehard and tribal about it and it just becomes this toxic swamp of a conversation topic.
Another reason why politics is so awful in the US is that the campaign for the next presidency starts as soon as a president is elected. This means that for 4 full years, people who want to be president will workshopping their voterbase.
@@PP-ok2xt So it would be impossible to fully explain here but it lasted about 1000 years. America has been around ~250. It was brought down because of politics and everything around that. It would be easier to recommend literature on it, if that's what you're interested in. If not I can try to explain it from my understanding.
both are old but biden has done more than trump on the same duration + with the negatives of being after trump itself. i really wish atrioc explains why he's not a big fan of biden other than old and senile.
I think the other main dis-benefit is probably people feel he has issues relating to things like government debt (which granted every president has, on both sides). Biden is definitely better than trump, but neither are great.
@@Mypremiumacct dude, I don’t really like RFKs comments on covid, and some of his other policies seem not great (ukraine), unless the dude is gonna enstate preferential voting (which would get me to vote nearly any third party) I’m not voting for him.
Because Atrioc is just like Ludwig, a fence straddling "both sides are the same" coward. Biden has been giving us win after win in terms of benefits for the american people but people like Atrioc refuse to notice it and just keep going "ya but they are both old so basically the same"
@traceable7875 i can get the Ukraine stuff though I personally dont have an issue with it. Is there something specific about ukraine he said? What particularly did he say about covid?
@@MC_heart4 vote for candidates, not parties. RFK thinks all vaccines are poison. Trump is literally arguing that presidents are immune from all crimes, even attempt to overturn an election with no evidence. Biden is an old and out of touch, but at least isn’t bat-sh*t insane.
This seems like it will lead to more polling error like seen in 2016. A lot of trumps moderate supporters may not be willing to publicly admit to that they support him, but will put him on their ballots.
Thats if they dont hear about rfk. Ive had a lot of people around immediately look into RFK because they didn't align with the far right ideology. A few moderate biden supporters feel the same, but I think it chalks up to wanting less to do with the candidates and more to do with actually making their lives better
I think someone like trump kind of makes the question of moderates irrelevant, anyone truly moderate would be put off by trump, and anyone who would vote for trump probably wasn't that moderate in the first place
RFK. Watch his interviews. Research all the mudslinging, hes got a lot of traction and on track for 50 states. Ppl say hes antivaxx, just read an article. The brainworm shits funny regardless, and the full-term abortion thing was clarified because of the interview being a bit pointed(sage steele rfk interview), still a great one you should definitely watch
I feel like the fact the Republicans and Democrats now are expected to vote as one single block is a big disincentive not only because the expectation is that you MUST vote with your party or you get ostracized but also if you know no one on the other side will EVER work with you then why bother even trying to work together?
Trump is just like twitch streamers. If you get banned, you gain viewers when you stream after. “Bad press” “punishment” that gets you more notoriety among people who support you. Hope kendrick disses trump so we can be done with him ngl
We can and are! RFK is on track for all 50 states, he is on 15+ ballots already. Look into the mudslinging, its all pretty researchable. Hes sued large corperations and the govt itself and won, hes a lawyer who also discusses the issue with the economy escpecially the housing market(theo von rfk interview) and definitely watch the sage steele rfk interview. Really good guy and tons of traction behind him
The full-term abortion discussion was on the sage steel interview and you should def get the full context behind that piece of mud. The brainworms thing I think he should capitilize on and make some fishing Kennedy 2024 gear
@@tysedai8913Also, there are a ton of other roadblocks such as the winner take all states, electoral college, debate controlled by reps and dems, getting on the ballot, etc.
I don’t see how the “convicted felon” label affects anyone tbh. If you didn’t like him before, you still won’t like him. If you liked him before, you probably like him more now. The independent/unsure voters are the only ones who really matter, and even then I don’t see it change much. It’s a matter of if you looked at it and saw there wasn’t really any evidence pointing towards a crime and it’s all politically motivated, or you see it as election interference and he shouldn’t even be allowed to run. - was it politically motivated? Yes it absolutely was, the DA’s whole campaign to become DA was him saying he was gonna be the guy to lock up Trump (not to mention his daughter is an avid democrat donor). Plus his office had direct calls with members of the Biden administration, the contents of those calls are unknown - did Trump have Stormy sign an NDA? Also yes, but the case is not if or if he didn’t have this NDA because those are legal - were there irregularities with this case? Absolutely. i) a former president was on trial ii) very democrat leaning city so the odds of getting 12 democrat voters was very likely iii) the “day off” was Wednesday instead of the normal Friday iv) the jury got an entire 8 day break after closing arguments while being allowed to go home, watch the news, talk to friends and family instead of immediate deliberation v) they only needed all the jurors to find him guilty of 1 of 3 possible charges to get a unanimous verdict, not all 12 on one individual charge vi) the defence pretty much weren’t allowed to object to anything, the judge barely let the defence make any kind of case The crime they (apparently) had to link Trump to was that he knowingly lied about certain payments to Stormy to get her to sign the NDA and bury this story and avoid it coming to light during his ‘16 election campaign (i think, I still don’t really know what the crime was)
This creates so many weird issues. Trump is now technically a felon so he can’t own or carry firearms but let’s say for some reason he did. The amount of chaos that could be caused between himself, law enforcement, and the secret service is interesting to think about.
Atrioc selling Nvidia is actually insane to me, I really believe at this point we are approaching a really rough point in the stock market. Nvidia has been carrying the rest of this ai tech growth for the market and his public loss of belief in them is a big indicator as a person that knows so much of the market and was an insider. With US growth so centralized and global concerns with Taiwan I think there’s boutta be a big recession. That’s also just random thoughts from a random guy.
No the war was EXPLICITLY over the right to own slaves. Check every single secession paper from every traitor state, its almost always in the first line.
i guess for someone that willingly chooses to live in Los Angeles, he really has THAT much money where he doesn't care about his capital gains tax. crazy money
Two party system, trump is such a big threat that dems are scared to run anyone else since Biden beat him once. Should be better after this election. Honestly it would take 2-3 pages of writing to sufficiently explain things to things to you so that’s the beyond dumbed down and simple explanation for you.
There are more. Its just very hard for 3rd parties to get on the ballot. We have RFK jr running as independent and i really think he has a huge chance due to being moderate...quite literally an amazing candidate. Hes a lawyer thats successfully sued the govt and big corporations, wants livable wages, and since hes already gotten enough signatures for 15 states to be on tbe ballot, i think hes on track to make all 50. Watch his interviews if youre interested in an actual candidate
@@MypremiumacctExcept that he can’t (technically he could but because of how the system is set up not really) win. The system is rigged against third parties so much eg. The electoral college, winner take all, debate is controlled by the reps and dems, first part the post system where you can’t have a second choice so you vote for the person you don’t dislike the most, etc.
RFK discussing large corperations, low wages, the fact no one can afford homes and even explains the blackrock ownership. Its reassuring to be able to finally vote for someone who holds a less political view on the world. A lawyer who sues large corps and even the government? I mean all the mudslinging going on, you could just research and find its all pretty much a stale attempt and RFK has even gone on record to say that its the America he grew up in, people should be able to say what they want and he seemed to have little qualms because his actions show the exact opposite. Def not a perfect candidate but damn just excited to vote
I am not American. I am not a republican. I'd prefer you vote for trump because sleepy Joe will die in the next 4 years and that wouldn't be funny. Trump would give cool memes👍
You could make the same argument for like 85% (if not more) of politicians from any political party. But yeah, the Trump supports are a bit much to deal with, even when looking at the rest of the field.
Or it could be the fact that every institution has turned against men who are now statistically, speaking, leaning conservative at every age lower than Gen X. Combine that with the Democrats ideological dereliction the rate of ethnic change increasing. I can see the appeal of Trump. Because an absolute terms 70% of men have no future under 30. Plus, Biden is losing a proxy war to Russia. The weaponization of the court system has already occurred in the United States. Frankly, the United States Democrat party is no different than united Russia. There will be a wave of political prosecutions if a republican candidate becomes president.
