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Lee, Musk said that once FSD V11 goes wide release ( DEC ) to all FSD customers, that the added revenue stream will cause a massive spike in TSLA value. Shouldn't FSD be worth at least $2B - $3B in pure profit during 2023? Perhaps even worth $1B in extra profit for Q4 .... or much more if all of the _withheld FSD revenue_ can finally be realized ?
That is one of the beauties and advantages of being as resourceful and profitable as Tesla is today....they can not only drop prices, they can slash them in order to chase as much demand as they want in any market they operate in. The fact that they are already the vehicle of choice now, lower prices will only magnify this. If Teslas are priced higher and sell like they do, the competition has to sell cheaper in order to compete with a superior product. This only gets more and more evident as Tesla's prices come down and the "competition" can't afford to drop their prices any more. Someone below asked how this will impact GM and Ford etc., well that is an easy one to answer....ruinously ha!
'Rapid Fire' Wow, I was eating breakfast and had to rewind the video probably 8 times!!! I think you set a record with the number of salient points on the State of Tesla, the 'automotive company'... Lol Classic episode!! SoCalFreddy Thanks Lee
Edward: Technology prices jump around a LOT. People get upset when prices drop when they buy something as they have for the 4 decades I've been paying attention. Like all the CRYING fellow IBMers did when they bought an IBM PC right away, and then prices fell, and then IBM didn't want to give them a big refund. LOL So be upset, or wait. But long term, anyone paying attention knows what's happening to price and performance of batteries over time, and competition over time re BEV's, and what that will do for prices. After all, legacy ICE is going bankrupt (at least mostly) for a REASON. Like all obsolete companies which can't adapt well enough, BTW.
Lee, your channel is right now the only beacon of light on a stormy sea. ❤ By the way, I would love the cheap Tesla to be delivered without paint, like the CT, even if it won't be made of steel. I would love to paint my own car and with so many cars on the roads being Teslas in the future, we will need some personalization. 😂
If i am not mistaken, Tesla looks at the efficiency per cubic foot of a facility. Elon pointed out that less than 5%(???) of a facilities cubic volume is actually used in production. Tesla feels that their competitive advantage is manufacturing / production per cubic foot of a facility and not sq ft. That is how Shanghai can produce a million + vehicles and any other facility making a million vehicles is roughly 6 -10 x sq ft.
Costs going down, also the $7500 tax credit. I am not sure Tesla will lower prices at all in the US. Also reminder that Tesla just needs to sell 2M vehicles - not 8M. I think they are in really good position. If they had to sell 8M vehicles next year then I would say yes for sure they would have to lower their prices a lot.
I think that once the market has been saturated by the current trims of MY/M3, Tesla will release a cheaper MY/M3 that has cloth seats, less speakers, probably metal roof if it costs lower, manually-adjusted seats, more hard plastic surfaces in the interior. Somehow, cars might seem like TVs, where one end of the spectrum is a 75 inch screen but with very basic picture LED, low spec software and hardware, and the other end is also a 75 inch but with the best picture and quickest hardware and great UI. Most people will see them almost the same from the outside, but it's when you actually experience the product where you'll tell the difference.
I know TESLA is going to do well in the long term but I have no confidence in its price in the short and midium term. Very disappointed in Elon and Tesla stock as an investor.
@@MarkXHolland Elon has outlived his usefulness at TSLA Too many lies I'll leave you with his "my money is first in last out" statement. Shame the board is owned by him. Many people not named Elon Musk are making amazing products at TSLA. I hold 2599 shares and started buying in 2011. Time for musk to GOOOOO
Walk away noobie. Walk away from the screen. You’re too emotional Or u need to realize your risk tolerance doesn’t match your grandeur for gains. Most people can’t stomach the rollercoaster so decide and make your move and carry on Trust us on this. Elon will be in the spotlight many more times so if Twitter upsets you then best to cut losses and run. You can’t stand behind the man with a grand vision then the ferry stops every second. Just hit the sell button so us with conviction and see the fundamentals can buy them for you No use griping about it. You picked it..
What would happen if GM, Ford, The VW Group and others continue to disappoint in their product and sales for the next 2-3 years? What would be in impact on Tesla?
This is why tiny homes are important! haha Is TSLA making Boxable a must! Not funny hang in there... there are bright days ahead... but when I ask. Hard to invest even at these prices when diving! Sad for optimistic short-term traders.
Hi Lee. Having so much of Tesla’s margins (and market) come from China has presented an elevated geo-political risk in recent months. What is the path to mitigate this risk?
In dollar terms, cogs would most definitely NOT be cheaper if dollar was weaker Dollar weak literally means each dollar is worth less Margins could be higher since the sale price in dollar terms could also be higher but $cogs is not gonna be lower
I bought again @172.4 - 169.7 and 167.5, that’s the last shares I’ll ever buy , if the price goes up to $235 I’ll be just fine anything over that will be splendid. Cheers
ruststar: So if we have a bad recession that last for years and the QQQ drops 80% and Tesla drops 90% (but is still growing and doing fine re competition, profit, etc), you'll never buy another share? I don't get it, but each to their own. Now, if Tesla is doing terrible and their business case is falling apart for no clear reason, that's a different thing of course. (Not that I expect that). But if we have an ugly recession, Tesla could well drop a lot along with all of tech.
A Tesla cyber Van would absolutely slay in the third world. Just put an option to clear the back and look function like an L300 here in the pH, able to open the back with bare platform will beat pickups, then standard van model would annihilate public transportation. 😆
the $70/kwh cost probably won't come to fruition until 2025...but in the meantime they will receive a huge tax credit for batteries manufactured in the US...
Can it really be the case that the 'market' doesn't see where Tesla is headed? Perhaps it's just that it does see it but only in the medium to long term?
I wonder if Russia and Ukraine might become low cost manufacturing hubs at some future date. Also wonder what Tesla sales might be like in a future Russia for the new cheap version.
They will never put up a factory there. Ever. Poland would be the closest step Elon hates Putler also so.. They already have so many locations to fill the gap they don’t need war war torn countries on the list right now. Just ones that can be targeted by nukes 😂
We'll know soon whether the price increases this year have allowed Tesla to adjust and take advantage of anticipated(?) material cost *decreases* in Q4. Any such decrease while retaining good (the same) margin will be a double blow to those who didn't increase their prices. Note VW (General software/ platform) and Ford (Self Driving investment) both "shifting perspective". . Despite what they will say, they're "looking for change behind the sofa", trying to "recession proof" themselves. Short term, maybe good, but later? . Meanwhile Twitter,hailed by many as a big mistake, will start to subdue the FUD, allowing for PR offensive next year (🤔?). Likewise NACS is going to be "interesting". I'm waiting to see which alternatives/ excuses will be rolled out to prevent a (logical) transfer to the standard. I can't think of one reason. . Are we going to see a "rolling stone" start a journey, gathering pace with the Semi launch, through Q4 with ships leaving Shanghai every other day(!) and the 20,000 backlog adding to deliveries..... and the Texas/ Berlin ramp...... and 4680...... and the Idra delivery/ set-up? . I think we have maybe 10 days of maximum opportunity. Probably fairly flat to Christmas. Then off we go.
If Tesla keeps focusing on the ramp up, battery tech, and supply chains, the prices thing will be an easy fix. All this talk of competition coming, yet Tesla is directly fighting the real competition already in China, the home market of the companies that seem to be the true threat to Tesla. Ford, GM, VW, are getting EVs to market, but not the scale needed or at real profits, if any profit. Tesla is rapidly expanding the most reliable charging network. Ride quality has been improving as well. The only issue I have with Tesla right now is I believe their interior quality needs to be raised. I really believe it they had a team focus on that for a couple of months, they would be able to find a high quality interior process that would be cheaper than what Audi or Mercedes does and likely be better than their interiors. If Tesla nails that, most critics will back off. There will always be critics no matter what Tesla does, but the luxury prices with a not so luxury interiors is a valid complaint. Another great video Lee. Always look forward to your next video and appreciate your logical approach, trying to keep the fanboyism out of the discussion.
Prices are a "nothing burger" Any adjustment from Tesla has more effect on the other companies who have to try and match the move to stay price competitive, but can't retain margin if they do. Ref the Ford "we prefer ADAS to FSD" move. Yeah, right, if course you do..... Me, sceptical? Damned right! They need the $$$$
I don’t disagree with you All I’d like is ventilated seats. I’m happy with the minimal interior as I myself as a “minimalist” I think for sure they could improve but they hit a home run with the whole design itself. If they change materials and layouts it becomes another car. Which I’m not sure I’d like. But I am one person. I also think people who buy teslas right now have the money and are more concerned about letting Chad Jr. suck in car exhaust above an interior. My opinion.
And y are great, but i am affraid that there has come to great damage in believe and trust in Elon, and this is Very important. That why we are seeing free stock fall lately. i am affraid that we can see even demand problem because of this. Its like 180 degree turn rate regariding Elon and therefore Tesla, just thinking. What do y think abouth that, can be this fixed, would be?
@@lukaljubljana7516 I underestimated how bad the twitter frenzy would get, but I also regularly underestimate how ADHD public attention is. I am hoping that the latter will counteract the former.
@@jjoonathan7178 Thats my concerne, it wont end, there be always something abouth Twitter, this twitt, that reaction from Twitter managment, no ending of shit storm
@@lukaljubljana7516 Ask yourself. Why did he buy Twitter? (I assume you think that was a bad move?) . The next phase of Tesla growth requires "mainstream acceptance" from those who know nothing about EVs. The main source of "misinformation"? (Probably) . Twitter. It's a relatively short term investment, for huge long term gain in public relations. Then there's the "video contributor" aspect. Where will you watch this channel in 2 years??? . Twitter will become another part of the Tesla system. . He's no longer building "companies" It's a self sustaining ecosystem. . With that perspective, Twitter could be a genius move.
If Tesla lowered their prices , then GM , Ford , VW, Toyota etc would all go out of business....They're barely making it right now and to compete where they will lose money on every car they sell ( you know the story...BANKRUPT...). Then only Tesla and the Chinese would sell EV's....
Like Vegas ... darn TSLA Took a bath on the way down and got out 50% went down $200 got back in now 75% out and must wait things out a bit. Retired and losing mad money could pass on etc. Humm! I know will go back up but ... right now??? waiting for some kind of MO. Butt hurt right now! Lee gives me hope and knowledge! For right now not losing is winning at my age (70yr)
@@hal8683 You only "lose" if you sell. As long as you have more shares than you bought the first time and it passes the price you paid, you'll be winning.
@@rogerstarkey5390: This is why so few make money trading stocks. And why it's so much better re true INVESTORS, to COMMIT and buy and hold and not get too greedy in the short term. Lots of people will panic and bail out, especially the ones crowing about being "all in" over $300. And then in 2 years or 5 years or whatever, they'll be all mad because they panicked and sold on a big dip. Volatile stocks are VOLATILE -- kind of sad that so few people understand what that really implies over time.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Sounds good (not really). See I believe (know) that by selling shares at 250 and buying now at($170) you make much more money with less stress! My motto right now is "not losing money made is making money" a different way. Getting back in soon on any MO or good news at half price. I know it is luck and gamling????
Tesla margins simply too high just being too greedy. Maybe oke for USA because of the tax incentives but NOK for the rest of the world. Parity with Ice vehicles (and a superior battery warranty) should be the ultimate short term goal to show the Tesla brand is serious about tackling global warming. It will deliver anyway growing profits and will strengthen the brand and create huge demand as before but now not from early adopters. The running cost benefit had serious erosion as electricity price hikes have been higher as petrol prices outside USA. Leaders should show leadership to customers and this will eliminate lots of negative FUD thus crazy enough support the stock price as well . Will also eliminate some ice makes a bit faster as investors will judge some simply can't survive.
What are they doing with the returned leased cars as peppercorn payments not allowed. Assume robo taxi a way off I assume they make a profit on returns.
Mike M: Robo-taxi is likely years off, BUT per RU-vid of testers like Dirty Tesla, Chuck Cook, and several other good ones, it is steadily getting more and more consistent, and getting quite impressive now in all but complex traffic. Over time we'll have longer strings of zero intervention drives. That will lead to robo-taxis over time. It just takes patience. Look how much progress has occurred in just the past two years. Major product revolutions aren't built overnight.
@@rogergeyer9851 but until it's released they have returned leased cars where does resale of these get counted. Assume 10% are leased through Tesla that would get 100k cars at say 20k each that would be about 2bn a year or more as manufacturing increases.
No i don't really think so. A lot of people are confident on Elon so they will think this as an opportunity to buy low. I think after December it will start rising again and about February it will skyrocket to were it was and maybe even higher That's why i keep my share's
So I see how it works. The long term investors are only long term investors if the stock is strong recently? Good luck trading actively with that sort of mentality.
I think investors have unrealistic expectations for Tesla. The stock went up 130x in the past ten years. This won't happen again. Optimistically it can 10x in 10 years. Much better than market average but much less than a lot of Tesla investors are used to. Law of large numbers makes it hard to 130x again.
Lol. No one is expecting it to run another 130x. We’re wanting better returns then SP and a high conviction of growth along with a once in a generation leader at the helm There is no other company as innovative. Fast paced. Willing to risk. With a leader that has 🏀 🏀 of steel and an appetite for pain and long work hours and tremendous risk tolerance.
Stock might be down because Elon farted 😂 Who knows. Market was down. Tesla is down. Tesla makes 50% growth stock is down. Down down down is the name of the game right now
Fun math: Tesla is targeting 3TWH of battery production by 2030. The IRA (Inflation reduction act) will pay battery producers $30/kWh of batteries produced in compliance with the IRA. (3,000,000,000,000 wH) / (1000 kWh) * $30 = [drum roll] …. $90B per year!!! Let’s cut that in half because lots of those batteries may be overseas, and cut in half again because we want to be conservative… still means Uncle Sam would pay Tesla $15B per year in bottom line money. 🤯🤯🤯
I assume they’ll cut the program at some point once factories are established and can laugh at China. The whole goal was to not have China have a neck hold over materials and manufacturing. That’s it. Once job is accomplished I assume they will reduce credits slowly. Such as they were with solar until Putler came into the equation funny enough. Or not
Lee, from your perspective, is Tesla profitable, or is it a growth stock at this point. Keep hearing that if Tesla was profitable it would have greater stock value. Just a long term investor…
Tesla became profitable in 2020 and you can see what this did to the stock price. Here's the thing: the financials just kept steadily getting better, even though the meme premium went way up and now way down. PE of 35 with 50% yoy growth and 5% market penetration? This is a nutty good deal.
@@jjoonathan7178 Not trying to be funny but was Tesla a good deal still at $900 a share? Reason I ask is because I was hearing it was a buying opportunity of at lifetime at that price
@@svtrunnin501viously in hindsight we can see that such ppl were wrong in saying that. There’s no talking around an over 50% price decrease. It was one of the worst times to buy. You would have over double the shares for the same money if you waited till now. It’s not some minor market fluctuation. This is what hindsight tells us at least. We will see where the stock goes from here. Still plenty of opportunity to go further down before any meaningful sustained rebound.
One wonders if the CCP would support a "compact Tesla" and allow Tesla to crush the Chinese competition. The CCP is OK with Tesla as a export hub, so profits need not be too much lower even if the impoverished Chinese buy fewer higher cost, better quality Teslas.
Macro is a powerful force young padawan.. Fundamentals are still in play. Nothing has changed besides humans and their ridiculous emotions of fear and anxiety. Kinda like how you’re behaving 😂
@@ssing7113 you can say what you want but numbers don't lie. This whole time he's been raving about Tesla and how the stock price is going to jump and it's been tanking every week. Like at some point you just have to take your losses like a man and stop making excuses for them.
What are you talking about? Tesla's fundamentals are totally sound. GM and Ford are hampered by their ICE assets and can't make EVs to scale at a profit.
I think there is a lot of frustration with Musk at Twitter and people are selling TSLA as punishment. TSLA is a long term buy; don't be concerned about the short term!
@@MarkXHolland I was talking about the share prices, not the companies. Tesla powers on while the stock crashes with no support level in sight- definitely something wrong with this picture.
Wow flipping a coin I win 50% of the time as well Stock listening to a you tuber who “displays his wife” and taking him seriously 🤦♂️ Do u know anything of statistics. Half in a room say up. Half day down. You have 50% “winners”. Doesn’t mean they have a crystal ball Flip a coin ten times on heads. Now so it 15 times. Can you do it 20. I have looks up probabilities. But it’s extremely extremely low. You have millions playing. One will win. Not because their genius. Because of probability. That’s it. . . .
When is the board going to get rid of Elon? Seems to be a big liability at this point. Actively doing things that hurt the stock and the company should not be tolerated. What more does he have to offer Tesla? With the current products and culture they don’t need Elon and his ego. I know this is unpopular but wtf is he thinking/doing?
Elon has always been like this Don’t like Elon then you don’t like tesla. He’s tied to tesla Sell your shares whiner. I’ll give you some cheese with that whine 😂
Tesla stock dropping to $130 soon. One of my sons placed an order for a Tesla truck over two years ago ??? Is anyone actually running Tesla and getting shit done 👍 Since Elon is spending all his time running Twitter and supporting Twitter with Tesla stock and some Tesla paid employees are working at Twitter this is all a disaster joke for every stock holder. Tesla obviously now needs to announce a qualified full time CEO. Why are Tesla stock holders paying Elon a huge amount of money to work at Twitter. All are reasons why Tesla stock will continue to crash. Also Elon will have to continue to sell Tesla stock to support Twitter another reason why Tesla stock will drop. Crazy how these info commercial sites don't talk about these MAJOR issues.
Hopefully the judge will rule with the stockholder in last week's case about maniac musk's outrageous compensation! He needs to go, but the board is spineless to him. (one is his brother)
The issues you listed have nothing to do with TSLA. The reason TSLA is down is the same reason everything is down: Our President is an idiot. We are going into a deep recession, at best, and everyone knows he doesn't have the synapse to change things. If we are in a recession then it stands to reason people won't be buying luxury items as much. This is the compromise society makes for not wanting to endure mean tweets.
Tesla doesn't need to worry about its shareholders. Tesla shareholders largely operate from a position of blind faith and their loyalty is unwavering. They could be forced to burn their share certificates just to keep warm and they would still be singing the praises of the company and still offering assurances to all and sundry that Tesla is the only game on Earth, for investors and motorists alike. What other manufacturer has a prospectus that clearly states that they will not pay dividends for the foreseeable future and investors still leap on board? And what other manufacturer has shareholders that demand nothing of them? And why should Tesla shareholders demand a single thing from Tesla? It makes no difference whatsoever to the shareholder's bottom line. Tesla does not need to change a thing. They have a virtual army of social media influencers, RU-vidrs etc, who devote hundreds of hours every year to providing a free PR service as ambassadors of the brand and of Elon Musk. "If it aint broke..." What do they need a new qualified full time CEO for? What?
@@davidbrayshaw3529 All the Tesla fan boys think they will be a millionaire soon because they have some Tesla stock. Yes I do own Tesla stock but I did not start buying until it crashed down to $ 195 $ 183 $ 178 $ 170 I have a purchase order in next at $ 160 At these amounts I feel good.
4680 is a lot more expensive than lfp per mile. I don't know how you can get it so wrong. no surprise that u are wrongly bullish on tesla all this time.
tesla is lossing chinese market not because of price, but because of VALUE. tesla fanboys are so blind to believe tesla is so much better than other ev brands. it is simply not true. you have no idea how competitive ev market has become if you are not in china, not from price perspective, but from value for price perspective. what has happened in china is bound to spread all over the world. tesla may still be one of the top 2 ev sellers, but its profit margin will be cut in half and its market share will be nowhere close to what its stock priced in.
@@rockinblue978 I sure hope your right as i would love to average down nicely. Its just not to long ago I was hearing Tesla at $300 was a buying opportunity of a lifetime.
