Colorado State University Releases Its Most Active Initial Forecast (2024 Hurricane Season Forecast)

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Colorado State University released its 2024 hurricane season forecast. It's the most active initial forecast (In April) since the university began making seasonal hurricane forecasts in 1995.
Colorado State is forecasting 23 named storms...11 hurricanes..and 5 major hurricanes.
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Chapters:
00:00: Intro
00:54: Colorado State University Forecast
02:05: Florida Hurricane Forecast
02:56: Percentages For Hurricane Impacts in Texas, Alabama, Maine, New York, North Carolina.
03:50 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly In Pacific
04:45: La Nina Forecast from Climate Prediction Center
05:25: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly For Atlantic
06:37: Analog Forecast For 2024 Hurricane Forecast
08:17: Model Forecast For 2024 Hurricane Season
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Опубликовано:

15 май 2024

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Комментарии : 250

@just_weather Месяц назад

Not meant to scare anyone. Just passing along the forecast and taking you behind the scenes of how they came to this conclusion. Thanks for watching! - Jonathan

@Shaquille_Oatmeal007 Месяц назад

Yeah there's some optimistic people unfortunately.

@fleetwoodthemac Месяц назад

peace and love from NC

@fladave99 Месяц назад

This is TOTAL NONESENSE. We are at HISTORICAL LOWS for hurricanes. This idiot is using WIND GUST SPEEDS which is garbage. .Sanfir simpson REQUIRES steady straight line winds of 1 minute or longer OVER THE US MAINLAND AT LANDING. And NOT OUTLYIG ISLANDS-MAINLAND. Many of these so called historical canes NEVER HIT THE USA AT ALL. This dorky also is using mid ocean winds which is total nonesense. TOTAL GOV SCAMSTER

@fladave99 Месяц назад

Last year your CLOWNS used a small inland COVE to scam us with so called RECORD WARM WATERS. What are you going to use THIS YEAR-YOUR BATH WATER Whatta SHILL for global warming scam. PAY MORE TAXES SO WE CAN SURVIVE

@kellyw.1779 Месяц назад

Galveston County Texas here! Praying everyone is spared this season...🙏🤞

@marshamckee2479 Месяц назад

Were still cleaning up from the last one ...

@just_weather Месяц назад

Ugh I know. It’s terrible. Just hoping they all stay out at sea. - Jonathan

@weareallamericans7358 Месяц назад

Interior Central Florida here. No more Coastal Living for us. When we want Sand and Surf we just visit now 😎👍

@just_weather Месяц назад

That’s where I’m at too! Probably for the best. - Jonathan

@leanneadams2549 15 дней назад

I couldn’t understand why in early 2022 I couldn’t get a house deal to work out in Fort Myers, Florida !!!!

@Louisianish 6 дней назад

I lived in Orlando for 6 years, and even then, we were under the threat of hurricane damage, so yeah, the coast is a no-go for me. And this is coming from someone who is from the Louisiana gulf coast and has lived on the Florida gulf coast. I love our coast, but I'm with you, I'd rather just live close enough for a weekend visit.

@isabelcerni1841 Месяц назад

I remember one year there were 30 named storms. Not one of them impacted St. Croix where I live. But as you said, it could be a quiet season but it takes only one to make it a bad season. We definitely have to prepare. Thanks for the update. !

@just_weather Месяц назад

You’re welcome! Great advice. That was 2020. Thank you for watching! - Jonathan

@fladave99 Месяц назад

@MyTrivilin Месяц назад

I live in Puerto Rico and have experience several hurricanes and tropical storms. It’s horrible with Major Hurricanes. It doesn’t matter how prepared you are when is a Major Hurricane it is total devastation . When Hurricane Maria 2017 , almost category 5, it was catastrophic. We always have to be prepared just in case!

@just_weather Месяц назад

Absolutely. Will be watching closely for you guys. I know thing still aren’t back to normal after Maria. Just awful. - Jonathan

@rvnut1133 Месяц назад

Boricua empieza a ir a Walmart desde ahora y a llenar esas cisternas con mucha agua.

@dreeemer Месяц назад

Tuning in from Houston, Texas 🙂 Crossing my fingers and toes we're all spared catastrophic landfalls this coming hurricane season..!

@just_weather Месяц назад

Right there with you!! Thank you for watching! - Jonathan

@paulmetheny2126 Месяц назад

I'm with you on a calm year. Been a wet early year so far. Sure hope it isn't as hot as last year. Have a Blessed Year 🎉🎉🎉.😊

@frankreese6776 Месяц назад

Me to

@fladave99 Месяц назад

@roxannehudson7410 Месяц назад

Texas is not in the hotspot this year

@Viper1SF Месяц назад

I can't believe its almost hurricane season already! At least we got you covering all of this stuff and giving everyone great information all the time!

@just_weather Месяц назад

I know. It’s crazy how fast it comes around. Appreciate you tuning in! - Jonathan

@WhiteShadowVideosJA Месяц назад

Blessings from Jamaica 🇯🇲

@just_weather Месяц назад

You as well! - Jonathan

@kennoybrown3946 Месяц назад

Same

@rickeyholtsclaw7764 Месяц назад

Thank you for your passion and dedication to the art of forecasting....this saves lives. Pine Island, Florida

@just_weather 13 дней назад

I’m in Florida too! Really appreciate that. Thank you for tuning in! - Jonathan

@tammymyers9828 Месяц назад

Watching from West Coast Fl. Praying we don't get too tore up. Thank you for the forecast 😊

@just_weather Месяц назад

With you on that. Thanks for tuning in! - Jonathan

@paulmetheny2126 Месяц назад

North Houston also tuning in. Subscribed, will stay tuned for your updates. 😊 Thank You.🤠🇨🇱

@just_weather Месяц назад

Welcome to the team! Appreciate you! - Jonathan

@michelefischetti2508 Месяц назад

Port Charlotte Florida. I went through Ian.

@just_weather Месяц назад

I can’t even imagine what that was like. Hope you’re doing ok now. - Jonathan

@SlayerOfAmista Месяц назад

Sending you lots of love from Puerto Rico. I am dreading this hurricane season after the impact that Maria and Irma had on our island, but I very much appreciate this sensible approach to reporting.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Thinking of you guys. Just a terrible storm. Thank you for watching! - Jonathan

@JonasMatthewBahta Месяц назад

My parents experienced hurricane Alicia in August 1983 just a few years before I was born and that year had only 4 named storms in addition to the fact it was the first named storm that late in the season. That and hurricane Andrew are a prime example of as you mention why regardless of how active things turn out or the forecast everybody should be prepared as much as possible. Live in Utah, but grew up on the Texas coast.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Wow that’s crazy. It only takes one! - Jonathan

@hectordiaz1575 Месяц назад

Very warm waters in the Atlantic and La Niña forming in the Pacific

@Niceville63 Месяц назад

Hello from the NW FL Panhandle. Thank you for all the weather info without the scare tactics. Will definitely keep watching from now until November.

@just_weather 13 дней назад

Really appreciate that! Welcome to the team! - Jonathan

@oscarpuente2029 25 дней назад

checking in from South Texas!

@just_weather 24 дня назад

Welcome! - Jonathan

@denisemohammed9652 Месяц назад

Tuning in from Trinidad 🇹🇹 Thankfully we’ve been spared many times in terms of cyclones, but strong tropical waves and the ITCZ really do a number on us! Thanks so much for the update and will stay tuned for your upcoming videos 😊

@just_weather Месяц назад

Welcome to the team! Yeah your flooding has been pretty crazy the last couple of seasons with the ICTZ. - Jonathan

@peterz2352 Месяц назад

Thanks for your elaboration. Very informative. I tuned in from The Netherlands, Europe. Cheers

@just_weather 13 дней назад

Welcome! Glad you found it informative. - Jonathan

@slugbyte Месяц назад

Knowledge is power and preparedness is just smart, I live in the USVI, so thank you

@just_weather Месяц назад

You’re very welcome! Thank you for tuning in! - Jonathan

@eduardoortizrolon2176 Месяц назад

Thanks for the updates from West Palm Beach Florida.

@just_weather 13 дней назад

You’re very welcome! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan

@scm0717 Месяц назад

Watching from New Jersey. We had our one, Sandy. That's enough.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Totally agree. That was awful. Have family there. - Jonathan

@Louisianish 6 дней назад

I'm from Southeast Louisiana and live in Florida, so hurricane season isn't my favorite time of year. I never understood the people who feel like meteorologists are trying to scare them. You're just giving us the data you have thus far. I'd much rather be a little nervous and, as a result, over-prepared than be blindsided and devastated if a major hurricane comes my way. This is information our grandparents didn't have, and that's why major storms were so devastating. They barely had a warning. I'm so grateful for modern technology! Keep it up!

@just_weather 6 дней назад

Thanks for that! I’m in the Orlando area and will be watching closely together! - Jonathan

@Louisianish 6 дней назад

@@just_weather Thank you! You're doing vital work!

@eduardooramaeddie4006 Месяц назад

Hello 👋 Jonathan thank you buddy for the weather updates in the 2024 hurricane season 🌎🇺🇸🇵🇷⚡️🌀🌪🌧 thank you have a great day Eddie

@just_weather Месяц назад

You’re welcome! Thanks for tuning in as always! - Jonathan

@eduardooramaeddie4006 Месяц назад

@@just_weather thank you for keeping me and Puerto Rico 🇵🇷 informed about this hurricane 🌀 season

@dont.wilson2121 Месяц назад

Jonathan, thanks for your expertise! I’m in central Florida. Appreciate what you do! Keep up the good work 😉

@just_weather Месяц назад

I’m in central Florida as well! Thanks a lot for tuning in! - Jonathan

@AlexMartinez-ew4iz Месяц назад

Great content. Second video I watched from you and I decided to subscribe. Probably smart since I’m an FL resident. Just some friendly advice, we understand you’re giving us the non-biased data as clearly as you can with no fear mongering. It’s ok mention it, but maybe not as often as you are. Thanks for the content!

@just_weather Месяц назад

Thank you for the advice! I appreciate it! Will do that. And welcome to the team! I’m in central Florida so will be watching closely together. - Jonathan

@molonlave2193 Месяц назад

NBC 2 in Houston were predicating a named storm striking Texas this season as early as June.

@dka7873 7 дней назад

Thank you for this. As a surfer I track storms. But the damage that comes with these wave producing storms is devastating. I went to Colorado State U in Ft. Collins. Best time of my life.

@just_weather 4 дня назад

You’re very welcome! I’ve heard great things! - Jonathan

@churchlady31 Месяц назад

😲80% for Texas for hurricane!!!!!!’ Thank you, the for sale sign will be up soon! We love where we live actually, thanks for keeping us updated

@just_weather Месяц назад

I’m glad you live! That’s 80 percent for a named storm a little lower for a hurricane but still not the greatest! Thank you for watching! Jonathan

@SWFloridaprepper Месяц назад

Tuning in from southwest florida

@just_weather Месяц назад

Welcome! Hope things are going well post Ian. - Jonathan

@wesrobinson7366 15 дней назад

On the end of Long Island, NY here. So good to hear some science in how this will work out and will be working to make sure we are more ready this year.

@just_weather 14 дней назад

Always a good idea! Be safe your way! - Jonathan

@sunnyone-ct4rp Месяц назад

Excellent report, thanks.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Thanks! And thank you for watching! - Jonathan

@stevemann3078 Месяц назад

Thanks for the weather report hopefully not too many hurricanes. from ontario canada.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Agree!! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan

@PoisonPint Месяц назад

Watching you from the MS gulf coast.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Welcome! Thanks for tuning in! - Jonathan

@404errorcodeV Месяц назад

Florida here.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Welcome! Same! - Jonathan

@CarlosCastillo-er5yr Месяц назад

Thank for you information

@just_weather Месяц назад

You’re welcome! - Jonathan

@RobertRhorer Месяц назад

Watching closely from Roatan in the Bay Islands of Honduras! Iota and Eta were near misses, and hopefully that’s the case again this year. Thank you for the excellent, non-sensational content. Really valuable 👍🏻🙏🏻

@just_weather 13 дней назад

Welcome! Thanks for tuning in and I’m glad you found it helpful. Will be watching closely all season alongside you! - Jonathan

@jeremiahjoseph9791 Месяц назад

I started doing analogs based on Enso years AND tracks, I see this season being like 04, 05, 2017, and 2020 all wrapped into one

@just_weather Месяц назад

That would be terrible. - Jonathan

@gmichaelmurray8719 Месяц назад

Very informitive, thanks😀... Nova Scotia, Canada. Fiona and Lee left some indelible unpleasant memories!

@just_weather 13 дней назад

I can’t imagine. Thanks for tuning in! - Jonathan

@jenniferniles4120 11 дней назад

Checking in from south Carolina here

@just_weather 10 дней назад

Hello! - Jonathan

@muscleman125 Месяц назад

I enjoy hurricanes, only because I live in the northeast so by the time they make it up here, it's just a really long, really strong thunder+windstorm, which we don't get to experience as often.

@just_weather Месяц назад

That’s very true! - Jonathan

@Bayoubebe Месяц назад

We tired in Louisiana 😩

@just_weather Месяц назад

I feel you. - Jonathan

@ReynaldoSeguraWX Месяц назад

Tuning in from Central TX, this Hurricane Season looks like it will be bad! Awesome Tropical Update, Jonathan!

@just_weather Месяц назад

Ugh unfortunately it does. And thank you! - Jonathan

@asiagreen5658 Месяц назад

Why only one university research of this 2024 hurricane season?

@just_weather Месяц назад

There are dozens. CSU is just one of the most well respected ones. - Jonathan

@stevecoz7325 Месяц назад

Thank You.

@just_weather Месяц назад

You’re welcome! / Jonathan

@scotttannehill8439 Месяц назад

Sarasota, FL

@sharilyncraddock6163 Месяц назад

Florida watching!

@just_weather Месяц назад

Welcome! Same! - Jonathan

@jackharris5511 Месяц назад

Hows it looking for jamaica?

@dianamontes4269 Месяц назад

Thank you for such excellent forecast. Hopeing they miss P.R. still can't forget María in 2017 😪

@just_weather Месяц назад

You’re welcome! Hoping that’s the case at well. Maria was just terrible. Thank you for watching. - Jonathan

@bellaza28garcia71 Месяц назад

Praying to God, we don't have another Maria here in Puerto Rico 🙏🏻 🙌

@ghostindamachine 15 дней назад

Outstanding :)

@sirthomas4637 Месяц назад

LaNino tends to allow more storms to come inland into Gulf of Mexico.

@just_weather 13 дней назад

That is correct. - Jonathan

@srod679 28 дней назад

Clearwater Florida here...thank you, hopefully they will turn and miss us. Will make sure to buy lots of supplies this season.

@jasonwoodbury3717 24 дня назад

Tampa area is way overdue for a landfall

@just_weather 22 дня назад

Great advice! I am hoping the same. - Jonathan

@liversuccess1420 Месяц назад

If only one hurricane forms during the entire season, and it hits where you live, then it's an active season. These April projections are interesting, but essentially meaningless. We don't know where the storms will go or how intense they will be when they get there. All you can do is prepare, and tune in each day to see what's out there.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Couldn’t agree more! - Jonathan

@antiksur8883 Месяц назад

Uh, I understand the sentiment, but that's not what active means.

@onemanarmy8630 Месяц назад

The oceanic anomalies are really concerning as you can see the cold line, firing up beneath those warm waters.... This season could be another example of 2020.... Even a weak La Nina could be a troublemaker... Example is 1964, which had the peak anomalies of -0.8°C, but multiple areas in the ATL basin like Haiti, Cuba, Guadelope, Martinique , Miami were struck by Cleo....even Jacksonville, which wasn't hit by a full blown hurricane since 1880 was decimated by Dora and of course, Louisiana was also bombed by Hilda and Isbell also tore through Cuba and Naples.... Hence, we should be prepared because even a weak La Nina like of 1964 could be troublesome....

@just_weather 13 дней назад

All very good points. - Jonathan

@PaulaTourville-po7fg Месяц назад

With Hurricane Ian effects still evident in my area ....... a concern .

@just_weather Месяц назад

Ugh I hate that. - Jonathan

@LeotheWeatherNerd Месяц назад

Hi! I was wondering why tropical systems get shredded by wind shear if wind shear supports severe thunderstorms. I never really understood that.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Storms in hurricanes need to stay vertically stacked. In a hurricane there is a low at the surface and a mid level circulation. If those two are separated the heat engine doesn’t work. Regular storms like wind shear because of the single storm remains vertical with no shear the rain will falll right into the updraft and choke it out. So the wind shear helps to push the updraft away from the downdraft and tilt the storm allowing it to breathe so to speak. - Jonathan

@LeotheWeatherNerd Месяц назад

@@just_weather Thanks for the info!

@jj6148 Месяц назад

Maryland near the DC area here, and I hope the Mid-Atlantic gets by again this year.

@socrates2706 Месяц назад

From New Orleans, can the models forecast the amount of African dust?

@just_weather 13 дней назад

They can! - Jonathan

@klincos Месяц назад

Checking in from Central Florida. Information is power. Thanks for the information.

@just_weather Месяц назад

You’re very welcome! That’s where I’m at as well! - Jonathan

@maggieg2146 Месяц назад

From Florida, and appreciate the science based not trying to panic anyone approach to your videos, thank you! My limited understanding is that some of the steering and sheer factors vary between even neutral and La Niña patterns, and you mentioned Irma was an anomaly because it got strong early and kept heading west…and I think 2017 was a La Niña year? Assuming La Niña forms, could that be part of why there’s such a high statistical likelihood of a hurricane getting close to Florida on the CU prediction?

@just_weather Месяц назад

You would be right on the money with that. La Niña seasons tend to be a little more impactful…but then again El Niño brought us Andrew and Dorian. Still more often than not La Niña seasons tend to get things closer to land because the Caribbean is much more active. I’m in Florida too and will be watching it closely with you! - Jonathan

@woodyhayes7402 Месяц назад

Thanks for update. Seems EVERY year the meteorologist predict active seasons.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Unfortunately they’ve been accurate with that. Haven’t had a below average season since 2013. - Jonathan

@gilbertorojas5157 19 дней назад

Prayer from South Texas 956

@FlukasGuru Месяц назад

Tuning in from a barrier island in NE FL, let’s hope most of these are fish storms

@just_weather Месяц назад

Completely agree! - Jonathan

@Serenity-un3uh 22 дня назад

Hey Johnathan! Did you ditch the whiplash channel? You can't escape us! 😂

@just_weather 22 дня назад

Hey!! Good to see you! I still have that one, but have been focused on growing this one for my job. So glad you found this one for now! - Jonathan

@munkyface-cc3ui Месяц назад

🤘Sudbury Ontario Canada Eh🇨🇦☃️

@just_weather Месяц назад

Hello! - Jonathan

@comeonman9138 Месяц назад

NE Floridian here. BRING IT!😂

@karenfay4545 Месяц назад

The Meteorological Organization names hurricanes. Not NOAA.

@just_weather Месяц назад

No the WMO comes up with the names but NOAA assigns the name whenever it becomes a tropical storm. I was saying they determine that criteria. - Jonathan

@rafario448 Месяц назад

this el nino was very short compared to the previous one.

@just_weather Месяц назад

It was! - Jonathan

@marshawilliams684 Месяц назад

Southwest Houston.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Welcome! - Jonathan

@JonasMatthewBahta Месяц назад

Grew up there for 21 years close to Westbury area.

@cherrywavez99 Месяц назад

let the fun begin 🌀❤️

@just_weather Месяц назад

Ugh. Lol. - Jonathan

@cherrywavez99 Месяц назад

@@just_weather 🤗🤗

@luelsarowles1055 Месяц назад

Luelsa from South Africa

@just_weather Месяц назад

Hello! Welcome! - Jonathan

@7empest376 Месяц назад

Just looking for Florida to have another I named Storm which we may see alot more than one. But if not or so just stay prepared.

@Jdw6848 Месяц назад

I would rather shove snow and endure the cold weather

@user-sg9om8zi8y 14 дней назад

What about west coast- California and Mexico???????????

@just_weather 13 дней назад

Should be a little quieter than normal. Still it only takes one storm. - Jonathan

@sheilacantrell5636 Месяц назад

Central Florida, so glad to find a scientific approach.

@just_weather 13 дней назад

Glad you found it helpful! You should watch WKMG News 6 if you don’t already! - Jonathan

@siouxrose7766 Месяц назад

The perfect storm... just when more people live on coastlines, home prices are at a super-high, and insurance is also at a super-high. I live in Florida and got hit last year by the hurricane. One likes to think lightning won't strike twice in the same place. Who knows?

@AgniKaiGuy Месяц назад

Anyone just completely out of any tropical zone like Europe just curious about hurricanes? I always see all viewers being in proximity of tropical activity.

@lcarr8464 Месяц назад

I’m in Florida

@just_weather 13 дней назад

Same! - Jonathan

@pepsiholic4084 Месяц назад

Florida needs to catch a break... Daytona Beach is still repairing the seawall from Ian, we don't need anymore!

@just_weather Месяц назад

We really do. I’m in Orlando and was out there after Nicole. So much damage left. - Jonathan

@francismarion6400 Месяц назад

Every year is the potential worst hurricane season now! I'm more concerned about getting my hurricane information from Colorado than about a possible hurricane.

@just_weather Месяц назад

It’s just where they set up shop. No last year wasn’t expected to be the worst. - Jonathan

@freeheeler09 22 дня назад

Hotter oceans will mean stronger and wetter storms. Hotter temperatures in the Western US mean more drought and more fires. Not sure what’ll happen in a particular place in a particular season, but trendlines are concerning.

@just_weather 22 дня назад

Very much so. - Jonathan

@adammassey3991 Месяц назад

Florida

@just_weather 13 дней назад

Welcome! - Jonathan

@user-hd3wy8ox7v Месяц назад

😮 he sounds like why files guy

@user-hs7xr7fc1o Месяц назад

Central florida

@just_weather Месяц назад

Same!! - Jonathan

@aswerty911 Месяц назад

Why is some university in Colorado doing this? Is some college in a state gets hurricanes not equipped with the expertise? That's like the University of Miami delivering some winter snowstorm/blizzards projection.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Ha weird right? But doesn’t matter where you forecast from as long as that’s your expertise! - Jonathan

@KB-ip8ld Месяц назад

Hope in Texas the lakes fill up.

@just_weather Месяц назад

Would be great for a couple of weak ones to help the drought! - Jonathan

@SFsurf Месяц назад

Bring them on ready for some waves here in Florida

@ironsnowflake1076 Месяц назад

Is there a geographical, wind pattern related, or some other natural reason why hurricanes tend to miss a direct landfall on the west central gulf coast of Florida?...even the graphic you displayed from other years showed this tendency.....or maybe that's just me trying not to be an anxiety ridden mess for the entirety of hurricane season :D I dearly hope that they all just miraculously avoid land 🍀

@just_weather 13 дней назад

Honestly just the luck of the draw…but when there is a dip in the jet stream they tend to feel it and curve south like Ian and Charley. If there is a nothing to push it east then it will lift north like Michael. The steering mechanism has to be just right to guide into your area. Let’s hope it never becomes just right. I will say that significant surge is still possible even if the storm stays just offshore. - Jonathan

@caribbeanchannel 25 дней назад

Aruba 🇦🇼🌊🌴

@just_weather 22 дня назад

Welcome! - Jonathan

@roxannehudson7410 Месяц назад

What about Louisiana

@just_weather Месяц назад

Your percentages are 84 for a named storm 46 for a hurricane and 23 for a major hurricane to track within 50 miles of the coastline. - Jonathan

@lightclawshadowmarsch8167 Месяц назад

Jet stream says differently.

@just_weather 13 дней назад

What do you mean? The jet typically doesn’t influence these storms. - Jonathan

@lightclawshadowmarsch8167 13 дней назад

Yes it does

@txladywolf01 Месяц назад

Harvey took out my home…been in the new hm 4yrs and still building around it…ohhhhhh well this is the NORMAL!!

@just_weather Месяц назад

Unreal. Hope you’re doing ok. - Jonathan

@Vintage_GenX Месяц назад

Waiting for our local news here in Palm Beach County to start setting their hair on fire weeks before hurricane.... trying to scare people into a frenzy. (fear sells). You can always tell the newbies around here... they start stripping the selves of water and plywood when they see a tropical storm about to hit land 500 miles away. Just stay calm and prepare 😃

@just_weather Месяц назад

Great advice! - Jonathan