EARLY 2024 Oscar Predictions | March 2023 

The fact that we have films coming from Nolan, Scorsese, Fincher, Gerwig, and Villeneuve is nuts

Real interesting supporting cast for Oppenheimer; I didn't know so many The Color Purple actors and actresses were also going to be in that one too😛

It is worth noting that we have had at least 1 non-English language film nominated for Best Picture for the last 5 years in a row (ROMA in 2018, PARASITE in 2019, MINARI in 2020, DRIVE MY CAR in 2021, and ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT in 2022). I suspect the streak will continue this year.

The Oscar Expert is the only person who will say “The movie is good. That’s what I was worried about”

Miyazaki getting a best director nomination for his final film would be beautiful

They did this in March 2023 and 6 of their top 10 pics are in best picture, that's pretty impressive.

The video everyone waits all year more than the oscar itself

Really hoping that between How Do You Live? and Spiderverse, we get *something* animation-related going this year in the Oscar conversation.

Barbie is definitely the biggest wildcard of the year. If it's as good as Lady Bird & Little Women, then it could absolutely be a Best Picture nominee.

I would argue that the following could have a shot too: - True Love (Gareth Edwards) - Civil War (Alex Garland) - The Bastard (Nikolaj Arcel) - Wizards! (David Michôd) - Hitman (Richard Linklater) - The Royal Hotel (Kitty Green) and just for fun I could throw "Chicken Run 2" in there too because who knows lol

I love watching these videos right after the Oscars just happened.

Last year was my first full awards season following you guys and I had so much fun following the whole year. Hoping for a great year for movies this year 🎉

This is literally the first time I’m learning that And and Poor Things are different movies. I thought he just changed the name because of Google showing the same synopsis and cast on both movies.

Always fun to go back a year later. The Zone of Interest was power ranked at 32, yet likely finished Top 5 in BP! You just never know.

Watching this back in January 2024 is pretty hilarious. The confidence in the color purple verses the lack of confidence in Oppenheimer. Oh man good stuff

One of my favourite things about these early predictions for next year is the feeling of not knowing that a year from now who will be new Oscar winners. If you told me 13 months ago that Michelle Yeoh, Brendan Fraser, Jamie Lee Curtis and Ke Hey Quan aka Short Round were the acting quartet, I wouldn’t have believed you.

You guys are pros man! Predicting 6 within your top 10, 7 within your 20 and also name checking the zone of interest in your 30s! Incredible

I'd love to see Scorsese win Best Picture and Director because he's directed some of my favorite movies of all time like Raging Bull, The Aviator and GoodFellas.

I love your discussion about How Do You Live. It would be amazing if some of that push for animation to be more accepted critically and for Miyazaki to be celebrated with a Best Director nomination. Tonally it sounds like it might be more like The Wind Rises than Spirited Away but hopefully it has something of the magic of both and enough of its own uniqueness to dazzle. But we will see. I'm sure it will be absolutely full of heart and wonder.

Best Director: Hayao Miyazaki -How do you live? Best actor: Colman Domingo- Rust Best Actress: Fantasia - The Purple Color Best Supporting actor: -Austin Butler -Dune Part II Best Supporting Actress: Lily Glandstone -Killers of the flower moon Hahaha

Going 6/10 in Best Picture is pretty damn impressive. Even the other 4 are totally understandable predictions… Dune got pushed due to the strike. The Color Purple, Saltburn, and Air were like #11-#15 range. Only whiff imo was Dumb Money lol

The Iron Claw is not as much of a Foxcatcher vibe as you think. It's WWE wrestling, not Foxcatcher wrestling. Also, the Von Erich's all died very young and tragically except for one member who is being played by Zac Efron. I definitely think it could be a sleeper hit. Could get some acting noms, but probably not a best picture.

Don’t forget, Colman and Buckley are coming with their new film ‘Wicked Little Letters’.

I read an early draft of the Air script and its definitely gonna be a crowd pleaser. I feel like if it does well at the box office and keeps momentum, we could see an acting nom and potential for picture

I have a fun little stat. Alexander Payne movies win screenplay if it's not filmed in Nebraska. He won for sideways, filmed in California and the decendants, filmed in Hawaii. From what I read, the holdovers is being filmed in Boston. So the holdovers could win because of this stat.

Thats impressive you got 6/10 best picture nominees

One thing I wanna mention: I’m really hoping that Suzume no Tojimari and Makoto Shinkai will finally get their nomination for animated feature. It’s really weird that both Kimi no na wa and Tenki no ko got snubbed from the list. And I know that JP animation movies is a bit hard to get into the nomination shortlist unless if they come from a certain animation studio, but I’m just really hoping he could get nominated next year

Past Lives is my current bet for an early-release indie darling being pushed to a Best Picture nomination.

I think it's very important to keep in mind that in every year going back to 2012, there have been at least four films from first time nominees in the Best Picture lineup. 2022: 5/10 (All Quiet, Everything Everywhere, Top Gun, Triangle, Women Talking) 2021: 4/10 (Belfast, CODA, Drive My Car, King Richard) 2020: 7/8 (every movie except Mank) 2019: 5/9 (Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Marriage Story, Parasite) 2018: 6/8 (Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, A Star is Born) 2017: 5/9 (CMBYN, Get Out, Lady Bird, Shape of Water, Three Billboards) 2016: 7/9 (Arrival, Fences, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight) 2015: 5/8 (The Big Short, Brooklyn, Mad Max, Room, Spotlight) 2014: 6/8 (Boyhood, Grand Budapest, Imitation Game, Selma, Theory of Everything, Whiplash) 2013: 5/9 (12 Years a Slave, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her) 2012: 3/9 (Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild 2011: 2/9 (The Artist, The Help) 2010: 7/10 (Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids are All Right, The King's Speech, Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone) 2009: 7/10 (The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Precious, Up, Up in the Air) Only twice since the lineup expanded have we had fewer than four first-timers in the lineup. Of course anything can happen, but I think we should be putting more directors with no Best Picture nominees at least close to the top 10 here. I will say though you guys might've sold me on Barbie and I might have to more seriously consider that one.

I feel like we’re overlooking Richard Linklater’s next movie Hitman which sounds very different from any other movie he’s made but I feel like it’ll surprise people. I’m definitely looking forward to that one

We're getting to the point where a movie like 'Killers of the Flower Moon' will win because it's such an underdog story BECAUSE it's such an early overdog story.

Emma stone, natalie portman, margot robbie,kate winslet and zendaya for best actress lets gooooo

Barbie for production design FOR SURE.

My predicted top 10 in no particular order: 1) Killers of the Flower Moon 2) Oppenheimer 3) Barbie 4) Past Lives 5) How do you live? 6) Spider Man: Across the Spider Verse 7) Saltburn 8) Poor Things 9) Beau is Afraid 10) May December

as someone who has read the book Dune, the second half is what makes the book a masterpiece so with denis i am not afraid

Next goal wins has been discussed for 2021,2022,2023. Filmed pre pandemic Somethings not right here Discourse on taika has changed so much from when this film was announced. I hope it is great. This is the year of Michael Fassbender's comeback

I hope Barbie lands. Greta and Noah accepting an Oscar together would be an amazing Oscar moment

Have you guys considered releasing these as podcast? As someone who listens to your videos while multitasking I think it would totally fit

In much the way that Ruben Östlund was recognised for Triangle of Sadness to a larger degree than many expected at this year's Oscars with nominations for Original Screenplay, Directing and Best Picture, I would confidently predict that 2024 will be the year that the Academy recognises Ari Aster with Beau Is Afraid.

THE ZONE OF INTEREST AT 32 LOL

Yes! A new video from The Oscar Expert! I love watching you lovely folks talk about the Oscars. It was really amazing to see "Everything Everywhere All at Once" win "Best Picture" this year! Keep it up with the great work. 😎❤️👏🏾

2024 Oscars 1. Oppenheimer (Universal) 2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount/Apple) 3. The Color Purple (Warner Bros) 4. Maestro (Netflix) 5. May December (Disney/Hulu?) 6. Dune Part II (Warner Bros) 7. Asteroid City (Focus Features) 8. Past Lives (A24) 9. Poor Things (Searchlight) 10. Saltburn (MGM/Amazon) Alternate: Napoleon (Apple) 2025 Oscars 1. Megalopolis (Paramount?) 2. Blitz (Apple) 3. The Piano Lesson (Netflix) 4. The Iron Claw (A24) 5. Bob Dylan Biopic (Searchlight) 6. Avatar 3 (Disney) 7. Joker 2 (Warner Bros) 8. Here (Sony) 9. Wicked (Universal) 10. Furiosa (Warner Bros) Alternate: Back in Black (Focus Features)

thanks you guys i love all your videos have a great day!

54:16 - 55:08 The tale of the Von Erich family is one of the biggest tragedies in the history of professional wrestling. The story that surrounds them is that nearly every member of their family that was directly involved with professional wrestling died, whether it be from drug use or physical injuries or even suicide. The jarringly connected nature of these deaths have led many wrestling historians to refer to the family’s traumatic history as "The Von Erich Family Curse". Zac Efron plays Kevin Von Erich, the last surviving member of the original Von Erich wrestling family.

Great stuff. I could listen to you guys ramble on for a long time lol.

this might be wishful thinking but i think that if dune 2 ist really really good (+box office hit), it can win picture (+director for villeneuve)

Great stuff as always 🙌🏻

OH MY GOD I’M SO EXCITED. I love all your videos, you guys are one of my favorite youtube channels. I hope you reach 50k soon

When you guys were saying Barbie is a guaranteed box-office hit, that gave me a little bit of an In the Heights flashback. Very different movies, I'm just thinking the box office might not be a given just because it's fun. You still need a clear audience, and to me who the audience for this is remains a little unclear, because it's just completely different from anything that's succeeded at the box-office recently.

I would add these: Pain Hustlers (Netflix) D: David Yates C: Emily Blunt, Chris Evans Nyad (Netflix) D: Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi C: Annette Benning, Jodie Foster Black Flies (Open Road) D: Jean-Stéphane Sauvaire C: Sean Penn, Tye Sheridan Fingernails (Apple) D: Christos Nikou C: Riz Ahmed, Jessie Buckley Civil War (A24) D: Alex Garland C: Kirsten Dunst Wizards! (A24) D: David Michod C: Pete Davidson, Franz Rogowski Dream Scenario (A24) D: Kristoffer Borgli C: Nicolas Cage Love Lies Bleeding (A24) D: Rose Glass C: Kristen Stewart, Katy M. O'Brian, Ed Harris Priscilla (A24) D: Sofia Coppila C: Cailee Spaeny, Jacob Elordi The Outrun D: Nora Fingscheidt C: Saoirse Ronan The End (NEON) D: Joshua Oppenheimer C: Tilda Swinton Mother's Instinct (NEON) D: Benoît Delhomme C: Jessica Chastain, Anne Hathaway Handling the Undead (NEON) D: Thea Hvistendahl C: Renate Reinsve, Anders Danielsen Lie Longlegs (NEON) D: Oz Perkins C: Nicolas Cage, Mika Monroe The End We Start From D: Mahalia Belo C: Jodie Comer, Benedict Cumberbatch Dogman D: Luc Besson C: Caleb Landry Jones Anatomy of a Fall D: Justine Triet C: Sandra Hüller Jeanne du Barry D: Maiwenn C: Maiwenn, Johnny Depp The Dead Don't Hurt D: Viggo Mortensen C: Viggo Mortensen, Vicky Krieps Monster D: Hirokazu Koreeda Red Island D: Robin Campillo Les Indésirables D: Ladj Ly The Old Oak D: Ken Loach The Beast D: Bertrand Bonello C: Léa Seydoux, George MacKay Afire D: Christian Petzold The Teacher's Lounge (Sony Pictures Classics) D: Ilker Çatak The Persion Version (Sony Pictures Classics) D: Maryam Keshavarz Finalmente L’ alba D: Saverio Costanzo C: Lily James, Willem Dafoe Femme D: Sam H. Freeman, Ng Choon Ping C: Nathan Stewart-Jarrett, George MacKay The Miracle Club (Sony Pictures Classics) D: Thaddeus O'Sullivan C: Maggie Smith, Kathy Bates, Laura Linney Joika D: James Napier Robertson C: Talia Ryder, Diane Kruger

a24 is bringing out SO many movies this year, I'm curious as to which one they're gonna bring out the big bucks for in terms of campaigning. is there a chance for Beau is Afraid?? I'm so excited already

Y'all should have included Terrence Malick's new film 'The Way of the Wind'. It's a historical epic with Ben Kingsley and Mark Rylance. Definitely deserves to be up there

I really feel like The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Across The Spider-Verse are gonna be the favorite for Best Animated throughout the whole year and end up getting beat by How Do You Live.

Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Halle Bailey and Ciara in Oppenheimer - updating my predictions now ;-)

Oppenheimer below The Color Purple is hilarious in hindsight

Thanks for the video!!! So many movies added to my list to look forward to

I'm putting my money on Ant Man 3, clearly the masterpiece of a generation

this is the first time i’m hearing about dumb money. it sounds like a fun adam mckay movie, mixing the financial dramedy premise of big short with the stacked cast of don’t look up. fingers crossed that paul dano finally gets a much-deserved nomination

I literally got 70% scores on Gold Derby for anything that happened before Christmas without having seen any of the movies.

I saw Air at an early screening and it had great energy and vibes. The acting and directing is solid. Chris Tucker will be in the convo

Cobweb should be on the list. It is from the director of I Saw The Devil and it stars Song Kang Ho as a 70s film director who tries to shoot a perfect ending for a film. It may go to Cannes and the subject is kind of Oscar-baity

I'm rooting for Christopher Abbott, Ramy Youssef and Jarrod Carmichael to get nominated

lol i think you forgot to change the supporting cast for Oppenheimer

I just imagine those Barbie actors talking to their agents like, “Why the fuck would I do Barbie!?!?” And then the second they find out who is writing and directing they just go like, “Oh shit! Fuck it I’m in!” Also think you are underestimating The Iron Claw. The Von Erich story is some shit. I think it could easily make Best Picture. People don’t realize how interesting and absolutely fucked that story is especially in an industry that did a terrible job protecting the wrestlers. Efron will get a nomination.

Nightbitch was my favorite book I read last year and I'm so excited for the adaptation! SO looking forward to Amy Adams turning into a dog and I'm very curious how they're going to do it / what they are going to do exactly! Also looking forward to Poor Things. I still can't believe that's being adapted! Saltburn and May December sound great, too!

I love how many times they change clothes this needs a best editing nom

Prefect birthday present

Is it sad that now a days I look forward to the long months of predictions than the actual build up to Oscar night once the nominations have been announced? Love that you put it out this early!! ❤

Keep an eye out for Poland's animated feature "The Peasants'" made by the director of "Loving Vincent" in the same style but with Polish folklore instead. Not a best picture contender for sure, but if it submitted as international, I'd watch out for animated feature category.

Thanks for another fun video. I really enjoyed it.

Man, I WANT Miyazaki in Director! I want it SO BAD! But I just don't think it'll happen because of the Academy's animation bias. Now if there is one director that can break that, it's Miyazaki, but I don't know if it will be THAT GOOD.

Just wanted to point out that even though Bones and All wasn't an awards contender, it's important to remember that Luca Guadanino was also behind Call Me By Your Name... which WAS an awards contender. The man knows how to put together a well constructed film, particularly around romance, which sounds like this is right up that alley. I think the success of it is going to come down to the script and whether its any good. That could kill any chance it has, but I suspect it is probably good. Also, Mike Faist is severely underrated as an actor - I'm actually really excited to see him doing more stuff. I am curious though, why there was no Wonka on this list? Was that an oversight or do you think it's just not even worth mentioning? Also I know there's a Bob Dylan biopic in the works, though I'm not sure if it's coming out this year or next. I've been curious about that too.

This is honestly MY favorite and most anticipated video of the calendar!

Just finished listening to High Voltage Jamboree and man what an insane journey that was. First song was a bit too much for me but Let's Go is so hypnotizingly good. And it ended on a very strong note as the last two songs were also very good! Loved it! Definitely want to hear more music from The Weirdo Electronic Music Expert.

Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon and Dune: Part Two will be nominated for best picture. Beau is Afraid might be able to sneak in given Joaquin Phoenix’s performance. Next Goal Wins has a chance since Taika Waititi’s last film Jojo Rabbit was already nominated. The Killer from David Fincher releases in November, definitely a strong possibility after Mank, 3 years ago. Everything else is TBD right now. Maybe MAYBE MI: Dead Reckoning gets in as a technical entry, although Dune: Part Two will most likely have a strong hold after winning 6 Oscars last time in those categories.

I’m also interested in what Gareth Edwards is doing with TRUE LOVE - I could see a cinematography nomination for Greig Fraser

This is my favorite type of video, love early oscar predictions!!

Wouldn't be a surprise if How Do You Live? turn out as a masterpiece. Then having enough buzz for honoring Miyazaki's, and a momentum from Guillermo's push last year calling "animation is cinema", then who knows maybe it could get Picture, Director and Screenplay. Maybe even break history as the first to win the big prizes!

Fantasia Barrino-Taylor !!!! she won American Idol in 2004 and she will be Best Actress in 2024.

I’ll be rooting for 2023 Color Purple. It would avenge the travesty of the shutout of the original Color Purple.

i trust you guys so much i imediatly started a new letterboxd list with all of these films

You guys are the best in the business by such a stretch.

It's time for Scorsese to finally win his second oscar for Killers of the flower moon, and maybe a 2nd oscar for Brendan Fraser too.

Here’s the list for next year Killers of the flower moon (yes) Past lives (yes with 2 noms) Dune part 2 (delayed 😢) Saltburn (no noms) The color purple (1 nom for SAF) Oppenheimer (obviously) Poor things (yes) Barbie (yes) The holdovers (yes) Air (0 noms) Dumb money (0 noms) Bob Marley biopic (next year) May December (only SP :() Maestro (yes) Blitz (delayed) The killer (0 noms) Flint strong (delayed) Asteroid city (nope) Beau is afraid (nope) Rustin (only actor) How do you live (only animated feature) Ferrari (nope) Nightbitch (next year) The bike riders (next year) Challengers (next year) Foe (nope) The nickel boys (next year) Lee (nope) All of us Strangers (nope) The iron claw (nope :( ) The boys in the boat nope The zone of interest (yes) The book of Clarence nope Across the spiderverse only animated About dry grasses nope Priscilla nope Here (next year) Napoleon (3 noms) Drive away dolls (delayed) Next goal wins (nope) The collaboration (next year) Freud’s last session (nope) El conde (only cinematography) The wonderful story of Henry sugar (short film) One life (nope) 11/45 didn’t come out in 2023 Shirley (next year) Spaceman (next year) Wonka (nope) Joy land (nope) Our apprenticeship (cancelled) La chimera( nope) The perfumed hill/black tea (2024, it sucks) Long days journey into night (next year) Mission Impossible dead reckoning pt1 (2noms yay) John wick chapter 4 (nope) Firebrand (nope) Rob Pearce (next year) The new boy (nope) Caste/origin (nope) Megalopolis (next year) And/kind of kindness (next year) The actor (next year) Bottoms Eileen Fair play Nyad (actress and supporting actress lol) The only BP noms not on their radar was American fiction and anatomy of a fall, the winner of both screenplay categories lol

you are saying the same about Past Lives that you said about Aftersun last year and that wasn't a big contender in awards season.. but who knows

Margot Robbie basically bombed last year I just wish she redeem herself this year with Barbie

Dune Part Two is sweeping EVERTHING 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Literally, this is the fourth year we see Next Goal Wins in this list 😆

My strongest prediction is that Killers of the Flower Moon gets 11 nominations and either no wins or just one - the sole Supporting Actress win for Lily Gladstone.

before even watching this video… 4 of the top 10 predictions will actually get nominated. The other 6 will miss this year or bomb with critics. 3 movies in the 11-20 range will get nominated, and the other 3 will come out of nowhere (and one of them will be a bafta save like all quiet)

Marion cotilland and Andrea riseborough look so much alike, interesting to see them in the same movie

The Oppenheimer supporting cast ahahahah

Noticing the Color Purple Cast of Oppenheimer mistake, I also saw you had it listed as a Warner Bros film - very minor, but I've also sometimes forget Chris Nolan has moved on from WB and is doing his films with Universal now.

Wow what an excellent vid- so excited now!

cant wait for H.E.R to sing in Oppenheimer

Could Robert Downey Jr. for supporting of Oppenheimer be a thing? I feel the movies has a lo of opportunities for being nominated director, actor, screenplay, editing, cinematography, score, p design, costumes

9:26 The Supporting Cast for Oppenheimer is the same as The Color Purple?! That's crazy!

Don’t underestimate the supporting cast for Oppenheimer lol. Esp looking at who some of these actors will be portraying (Florence Pugh, Robert Downey Jr)

2024 Oscars hype!!!

I literally have an ENTIRE list of what I could potentially see as Oscar nominations for 2024. Barbie FOR sure, I don’t think it’ll get any acting nominations but for All the tech and director awards stuff it’ll get nominated. DUNE 2 for sure, I wonder if Timothee Chalamet will get a nomination seeing as though he’s in TWO major pictures coming out this year? I also think Florence Pugh and Dakota fanning will get best Actress nominations. The Fanning girls are returning in a big way and I won’t be shocked if there names are on a ballot.