Fjord and Molly play Trebuchet - Harvest Close Festival Part One- Critical Role (C2E17) 

He really does have the best rolls for the moment, whether they are 1s or 20s they are always perfect for the story.

@@GammaAlanna I seem to recall really early in campaign 1 when they were in the Underdark, they'd just pacified a Fomorian giant as a pseudo-ally ahead of their attack on the Illithid capital. Grog offers him a drink from his cask of ale, and the giant just rips off the top and drinks the lot. So Grog, naturally, is infuriated, but the others calm him down...until he rages and intimidates the giant by headbutting it. Natural f***ing 20. Such perfect timing.

@@KittyFaerie1 YES! I love that scene - and then they dropped him haha

Somehow everytime Fjord goes to test his pride it always fails. Push-up contest with Jester or tremendously losing in the fighting pit.

@@Cavers and when his strenght is put to the test in order to save his friends, that's when he succeeds such as when he was able to hold back an adulte Remorhaz with a single whip. I really love how Travis' dice rolls are following the narrative.

And then they proceed to throw Fjord.

"Did we get him in?"

If I ever do a full re-watch I'll be sure to mark down all those moments - that'd be fun

That would be perfect.

His eldrich is showing

I prescribe to this headcanon

I second that. Even the way he was throwing was sort of graceful and practiced. It lines up too well not to be true

Its the Plot Gods...they work in mysterious ways. They rule together with the Dice Gods over the fabled Dnd sessions everywhere.

no travis wasn't unlucky, everyone else was lucky

*Wil

He was rolling with disadvantage so the odds were quite a bit better.

I mean... if anything, it makes his odds worse that he's rolling with Disadvantage. To roll a Nat1 on Advantage checks is a straight 5% chance. You'd have to roll 2 Nat1s together for it to count, which is technically a 2 in 40 chance, but it simplifies back down to 1 in 20. But on a check with Disadvantage, it varies. Roll a Nat1 first time; 1 in 20. Roll it on the second roll, and it becomes a 1 in 39 chance. Rolling a second dice means that you had to at least have rolled a Nat2 first time, because you can't roll worse than that Nat1, and it's the lowest roll of the two you take with Disadvantage. Travis only re-rolled his dice once (his second round), meaning there's only one 1 in 39 chance to factor in here, which actually makes the probability of this scenario happening 0.00641%, or little over half as likely as the already ridiculously impossible odds for the 3 straight Nat1s.

@@feugofox42 Probability is quite often misunderstood in how it is calculated, so I would like to clear up the chances here. Short version: with disadvantage its 1 in 1080 to roll the 3 nat 1s as results, which is far "better" than the 1 in 8000 that you described in your main comment. The odds of rolling the nat 1s were certainly "better", though it is true that his odds of not rolling those nat 1s was dramatically reduced when done with disadvantage. Note: I am talking about the chances of the situation occurring and providing clarification on the probability math, whereas you seem to be talking about the chance to have rolled the exact values in the video, which can be a fun mental exercise but is not generally useful for calculating probabilities. To roll a nat 1 on a fair d20 is a 5% chance, as you stated, or 1/20 odds. To roll any other number on that d20 is a 95% chance, or 19/20 odds. If you want to calculate the chance of getting at least one "1" result between two d20, you add the chance of rolling a "1" on the first d20 to the chance of rolling any of the other 19 values on the first d20 and then rolling a 1 on any of the second rolls. Luckily while that sounds complicated, it can be thought of more simply as: [Chance of rolling a "1"] + [Chance of NOT rolling a "1" * Chance of rolling a "1"] In math terms, that is: (1/20 + (19/20 * 1/20)), which simplifies to: (20/400 + 19/400), which equals: 39/400 or 9.75%. Now that we have the chance of rolling at least a single "1" between two d20s, we can use that to see what the chance of Fjord getting a result of "1" on each of those disadvantage dex checks was. This is a simple multiplication, as he had to get that result each time, making the chance: 39/400 * 39/400 * 39/400 = 59,319/64,000,000 or.... ~0.0927% chance, which is roughly 1/1080 odds. This is a far better chance to occur than attempting to roll 3 nat 1s among 3 dice rolls.

Thank you!

"It was at this moment Fjord knew, he fjucked up"

It's sitting on my harddrive, waiting to be edited :)