Hermitcraft 10 episode 3 grian makes a start on the new hermitcraft season. Our goals are derailed by the urge to fish. Hope you enjoy! #hermitcraft #minecraft
Someone please make a fanart of sleep deprived Grian fishing on the moon like the DreamWorks guy - it would tie together "is the moon big" and this fishing madness so perfectly
Wanna take it up a notch? Try using camels. I'm not sure if it works yet, but you can get two people on a camel and two camels in a boat. So theoretically you could get 4 hermits all flying up to the moon!
In case anyone is curious: With a 1.9% chance of fishing up a book period and a 2/127 chance of that book being mending, that puts our probability of any individual catch being mending at about 0.0003. Using a geometric distribution, we find that the chance of getting a mending book within 5000 catches is 77.7%. Keep going, Grian! It's definitely going to be the next catch!
The thing is he's using a lure fishing rod I think so the probability decreases A LOT because it catches more fish (decreasing the odds of getting treasures)
going from gem's video to yours like: gem: i'm so glad i got that prismarine so i can get started on my base! naturally, it's going to incorporate lots of prismarine, as it is a sea-themed build, so this will be huge for my mega build grian: look at this snail
I can't believe Grian didn't include the funniest part of him and Gem's Ocean Temple raid That being Grian saying "I wish there was an enchantment that made bows work better underwater," to which Gem responded "that's called a trident"
I swear to god I spent soo much time wondering how you knew about conversations that were offscreen , it didn't even come to my mind that u saw it from gems video.
one of the best things about watching others episodes. i did it a lot when i first got into hermit craft. everyone has different bits of their crossovers
I hope this helps your fishing endeavors. The chance of fishing an enchanted book is 1.9% There are 112 possible enchanted books to be fished. This means a mending book has a chance of 0.0169642857% to be fished, we'll round to 0.017% for simplicity's sake. This means after fishing 5,882 times you should statistically get 1 mending book. Of course this is all probability and RNG isn't always fair. Even if you look up the definition of probability this is what it says, "The extent to which something is probable; the likelihood of something happening or being the case." So even if it is likely to happen doesn’t mean it should. But as you fish 4,850 more times to reach 11,764 (double 5,882) remember this: "The probability of success is difficult to estimate; but if we never search the chance of success is zero." - Philip Morrison You can do this Grain
@@RyanSoltani hey, actually, Mojang constantly references pop culture or the Minecraft community in the splash texts, so there's a non-zero chance it could be implemented there! I mean, it's still unlikely, but it's not zero!
@@lunaneumann6438 One of the three new people on the server. He had some technical issues in the first week and built pretty far away from everyone so he hasn't been in many videos so far
29:30 when Grian turned back and Gem wasn't there I imagined she was never there to begin with and that he was just hallucinating from the amount of fishing
Every start to HC is great.... but god this one is just really great. Sure, it's likely recency bias, but just everyone taking it slow, stupid arcs like the cult of fishing, and the flying people, and the neighbourhood's pranks and all the silly interactions are just so fun to watch
DEFINITELY gonna have some eldritch themes, I’d say. Everything she’s planned and taken inspiration from so far seems very eerie. But yeah Grian seems to have been taken by the water on accident lol.
I'm actually reading fellowship right now, and i just finished the hobbit. honestly, i never expected so many lotr references in the wild since i found out about it!
I'm enjoying so much this season, most of the hermits are taking their time, enjoying the early MC things, and honeslty, all the shenanigans and hermit interactions have been absolutely hilarious.
women want me fish fear me the server fears for me mojang despises me for not making the mendig drops a bit more fair to me specifically But like all on one cap
I have done the math for getting a mending book: - There's a 50% chance of having gotten a mending book after ca. 2500 attempts, - There's a 75% chance after ca. 5000 attempts, - There's a 90% chance after ca. 8300 attempts, - There's a 99% chance after ca. 16000 attempts. Grian mentions having done roughly 7000 attempts. Assuming that all the other fishing rod shenanigans are statistically insignificant, that means that there is roughly an 85% chance of him having gotten a mending book by now (or a 15% chance of not having gotten one). So yeah, Grian has been unlucky (but not unfathomably so)! The calculations I have used are p=1-(1-0.019*2/137)^x, where p is the probability of having gotten a mending book, and x is the number of attempts. You can also turn this around to solve for the number of attempts instead, which gives the equation x=ln(1-p)/ln(1-0.019*2/137).
At 23:42 he mentions the statistics for getting a book (1.9%) and the statistics for that book being mending (2 in 127). Multiplying these two chances we get 19 over 63500 or roughly a 0.299% chance of happening per fish caught.
I started doing the maths on this and gave up. I got a similar number assuming each book had a single enchant, but since it can have multiple (and there's not much that Mending is incompatible with) the odds are quite a bit higher of getting a mending book in that many tries.
I do know that he has luck of the sea but maybe they cancel each other out or lure takes priority, but (in the nicest way possible) I personally find it absolutely hilarious that hes been shooting himself in the foot like that XD
fishing approx takes 5 - 30 seconds every time and the mean/average of that is 17 seconds per catch. 17 x 7000 (the rounded off amount of times he had fished) = 119000 seconds. divide that by 60 and then another 60 is equals to 33 (rounded off) Grian has approximately have been fishing for 33 hours. Damn man, the dedication.
I’m kind of sad Grian edited out a certain quote in the elder guardian fight. Grian: I wish there would be an enchant to make you be able to shoot arrows in the water. Gem: That’s called a tridant.
The difference between launch heights is voice chat lag. The person getting launched should always do the count down so the fishers are synchronized. If a fisher calls it, they will naturally pull first.
At nearly 7,000 fishing rod uses, with a probability to get mending of ~0.03%, Grian should have gotten mending by now with an 88% likelihood. Things start getting stastically significant around 90%, so it's getting serious 👀
Well, if you consider the chance of this happening (7000 catches without a mending book) is over 10%. It's not really that strange. I mean a 1 in 10 chance of something happening isn't *that* low all things considered. If someone is wondering (and maybe knows more and can fix my math) I got this by getting the chance of a mending book Grian mentioned which is p(mending) = 1.9%*2/127 = 0.000299212598 Subract that from 1 and we get the chance of not getting a mending book which is p(!mending) = 1 - 0.000299212598 = 0.999700787 Then to get the chance of never getting a mending book in 7000 casts would be 0.999700787^7000 = 0.123094317 = 12.3%
I don't think every fishing rod use is him fishing, e.g. the etho pig launcher. Wouldn't it be better to approximate the number of things caught with the number of fish? Also isn't significance conventionally calculated at 5%? (Aka 95%)
@@mr.pickle6487if its going by 5%, he'd need to do another 2985 before it becomes unrealistic. by 10% he'd only need to do another 675. So I think the original comment said 10% since its a lot sooner (even if 5% is the norm)
Grian: has a problem of fishing when he's supposed to be doing other stuff Me: has a problem of watching Grian fish when I'm supposed to be doing other stuff
First we had Moon Big in Season 8, then we had falling sand logout problem in Season 9, now w have multiple fishing problem in Season 10. Things get weirder and funnier.
You can put 4 people in one boat: Put two *baby* camels in a boat and let them grow up if you then go sit on the big camels you can launch even higher!
@@camperkiller3 I don't think there were camels yet, but also Zed didn't simply try tp put as many players as possible in. He tried to pit as many entities as possible in.
