Is Rolex FINALLY Going to Kill The Gray Market? 

The Rolex AD experience is the literal worst part of the entire watch industry. The snobbyness and condescension to regular people trying to buy a regular steel watch is toxic. Its a shame because their actual product is great.

Re: Rolex's approach and maintaining elusiveness, I think you are exactly right about the 40 year old who finally decides to reward themselves with a very expensive watch, only to find that can't obtain one without playing games at the AD or getting ripped off by the grey market. This has begun to move the brand image from something honest and luxurious, to something that is more about hype and speculation, and even desperation. In the short/medium term, this will work out fine for them... but in the long run, they are diluting the sense of honesty and timelessness that they worked so hard to build for their brand.

Years ago I would have loved to owned a Skydweller or Daytona. But what has happened in the last two years has ruined my desire to ever own a Rolex. It’s become a status symbol for the exact kind of people I generally loath to meet in person, and will ridicule in private. One of my favourite sayings I heard lately is “Rolex…. A poor man’s rich watch”.

I am more than happy to purchase an Omega, Grand Seiko, Zenith, Cartier etc, over Rolex. Yes, there are some Rolexs’ I love and want to get, but I’ll gladly take my money I was wanting to use on a Rolex and spend it on those others.

Rolex should just increase supply of their lower end watches and have a scarcity scale. So if people can afford it and they want an OP, or even a Date Just, they should be able to get one in a reasonable wait time. If they want a Daytona or one of the more special ones, those should be very rare and hard to get. But the current situation where nobody who's not a celebrity can get one, I just don't see how that's good for the brand long term.

Name a more iconic duo.... YOU CAN'T. It's Michael and the JLC

Great discussion on the Rolex situation! If the watches were handmade I could understand the quality control concerns, but since the vast majority of the production is done by machinery, that argument is complete BS.

I don’t get the elusive thesis - scarcity is a weird concept as you see 10x the people with a Sub on their wrist then a Speedmaster, and Rolex produces considerably more watches than Omega and other watch brands. However, the Rolies are more desired - but they are not exclusive from a perspective of you being the only one with that watch. Exclusivity is an odd concept!

I think Rolex should just sell direct via their website.

My hubby and I was offered two Rolexes from our AD, but we turned them down. They weren't exactly what we wanted. The AD was not happy that we did that and said we would be placed lower on the list. 🤷‍♀️ Oh well! We want specific Datejusts and if we cant get them, I'm not buying just anything to stay on "the list". I've moved on to Breitling and Omega for my next timpiece.

I bought a Christopher Ward C60. Beautiful, and very well made. Crazy value. If I buy another CW it will be that moon faze. It is a very cool watch, especially on the mesh bracelet.

Rolexes strategy is going to hurt them a lot in the not too far future… 2-3 years ago the common sentiment among many of my friends was „Rolex is so hard to come by, they’re very desirable“ now it is quickly changing to „even if an AD gives me a spot on the waitlist, I’ll never get one before the model cycle ends“. Imho they are killing of the (future) brand loyalty/interest of the whole next customer generation.

i think we all can agree, these vids are always a treat in hectic weeks

So I was outside a Rolex AD, was dressed casually they told me I had to make an appointment before i can come inside. I peeked and said u only have 2 customers inside and they still denied me entry. I’ve bought afew in the past several years, but this is it for me. Truly F this brand.

I love that green Cartier Tank but I wish it had the numbers or at least indices on the dial since it's kind of hard to tell the time without them (at least for me).

In the early 2000's I was a creative director at a large NY advertising agency and was responsible for writing all of Rolex's US ads. The brand positioning/strategy at the time was: "A Rolex cannot be bought. It can only be earned." Make of that what you will.

I hear from a "Source" at a Rolex AD that they will be bringing out a totally new model at Watches and Wonders at the end of this month. We will have to wait and see if this happens or not but it would be very exciting to see this!

I love the aesthetics of the Cellini, but I hate the price. If they made it in steel for around $8000 to rival the JLC Master series or the Cartier Santos I would snap one up

What could be better for Rolex than the grey market? It’s an unfortunate, symbiotic relationship that makes other brands and legitimate ADs more appealing by the day.

I literally went to my local AD today and come off the waitlist for an Explorer. Sick of the BS, keeping hold of my money and look around for something from Omega or IWC

If I could walk into a Rolex store and buy a Milgauss without any BS I would have done so, but since I can’t, I’ve bought three omega’s in the last year lol. If that ever changes, I’d consider selling some of my watches to pick up a Rolex.

My local AD has a few steel Rolex sports watches that they are not selling. I asked why they're not selling them. Their answer: because many customers come in wanting to try one on, but we never have them in stock. Now they can at least try one on and see if they want one. He then went on to say that it's a shame that their customers can now try one on but still can't easily get one. They're currently not adding anyone to the wait list because the lists are far too long.

Rolex was not always elusive. I remember buying my first Date Just from an AD and after looking at all the models they had in the window and case, I wanted another configuration. So the AD simply pulled out the manual and I picked my dial, my bracelet and my bezel and had it in hand 20 to 30 days later. Now, you cant even request a Date Just configuration, you just have to accept what they have, or don't have. If someone really wants a Rolex, at 20 or 40 or 50, they will just pay more and go to a gray market dealer.

Can you really talk about scarcity when the secondary market is FULL of Rolex watches even with stickers, bezel protection and factory delivery boxes? It is going into wrong hands and that’s all. If I can go and buy a Daytona for 50k today, it means it is available but just expensive, and it is because ADs are delivering to grey market directly. It is less of an issue if the AD is part of a corporate group or a bigger and formal organization but where I live, all the local Rolex ADs are owned by the same family and I know for a fact that regardless of your purchase history, or any Rolex rules and policies, etc. they allocate the watches as they wish..

I really wnted an explorer for m 40th birthday , so I decided to go to the local Rolex Ad last year. I knew it would be almost impossible but I had to try anyway. I went 2 times imes at the store, was almost interviewed like if I was applying for a job, but Ad’s were always very polite and not condescending at all. I dared to call every 3 or 4 months just to say I was still interested. In the meantim I decided to buy a speedmaster instead for my 40th birthday and just see and wait if I would get an explorer at the end, but I was ok with the fact it would not be for now. Then unexpectedly I received a call last week for the explorer 😎 It took 14 months n a waiting list for me to get one without any previous buying experience at the store

we need a whats in michaels and christians watch box video. Love all your work guys!

Every new Rolex watch is a COSC certified chronometer. In addition to COSC certification, each movement is cased and tested to -2 to +2 sec/day. My DJ41 is the most accurate watch I own. I waited 4 weeks for it after meeting the Rolex AD for the first time last year. I have worn it daily for the last six months - most days it is perfectly accurate. In the six months I have owned it, the DJ has never gained or lost more than one second per day. Astonishing accuracy for a mechanical watch.

"Everyone will have one"? You do realize quite a few of us aren´t even interested in wearing a Rolex anymore. That JLC Reverso Grand Taille Michael is sporting however..just oozes class.

i had a "rolly" experience. had the money, wanted to spend it on a once in a life time purcvhase.. ended up buying something else (and getting a new patio lol)

The true question is how much do you value yourself as an individual and person and not as a mindless consumer buying things because they are " elusive and hard to get" meanwhile the watches are close to and if not mostly manufactured by robots on a mass industrial scale so what could be so elusive about a watch that is being made by robots and computers? This is just blowing more smoke up the arse of people who can't think for themselves. Is the only reason why people are buying rolex because they're hard to get? What about the customer experience? You get treated like nothing in the boutique While other brands actually care to spend the time with their clients and give them an experience that is next to impossible with rolex. What goes up must go down

The douche-o meter would be off the chart if Michael wasn’t so light hearted and funny to balance out Christian…

I got my Rolex (Submariner) for my 40th Birthday. I'm now 48 and I know I'll ever be able to get another sport model Rolex (Daytona) in my life. I do love the Cellini and would definitely consider it as a dress watch but I'm more attracted to the Tank Louis. I would rather Rolex sold their watches direct rather than through an AD.

OP turquoise price is going down in my area. From around 30k usd now to around 23k and I think will still go lower after the hype.

new format is a good idea, looking forward to it

The allocation list works differently for each market.......I think it will be hard for any watch company to have a one size fits all solution

The Rolex saturation argument works only in an environment where every Rolex buyer desires only one watch. That environment mostly doesn’t exist. Get a first Rolex on someone’s wrist, and they will likely want more in their collection. In my business we have a saying, “presence builds presence”.

Can’t wait for that sector dial omega😍😍😜

one more comment concerning Cartier: Check the Big XL Tank Must with steel bracelet - this is a real tank at your wrist. This is much much cheaper alternative to the Steel Santos Medium or Large. First I thought - gosh, a bit over the top - but now: it is my daily beater - and I can read the time without glasses (not so easy with a Tank Louis :))

I always wonder, why this scarcity discussion never occurs with Patek? When 5711 were in production, weren't they difficult to get a hold off?!

By Rolex sticking to their original game plan is NOT creating scarcity - it’s sticking to a business model.

Good point at 22mins. Would you say the Tudor is picking that market up ??

Curious if you think that Rolex not selling in Russia might affect supply (or not)

I think the evolution of watch wearers into watch collectors/hoarders (tongue in cheek) with more watches per person is big factor, since Rolex apparently haven't changed production levels.

I’ve noticed Chrono24 prices on Omega are showing signs of firming up. They are the most likely beneficiaries of Rolex unavailability since they also have a well known brand name. Tudor has also benefited (since many think it’s a Rolex..even if it isn’t). Cartier might also benefit since it’s a known brand. IWC hasn’t shown any signs, yet. Watch novices noticing other brands is long overdue.

What’s your take on the Tank Louis Cartier Large 18k rose gold hand wound mechanical ? I see that you really have an appreciation towards the brand, and any input will be welcomed. Thank you!

It’s my 40th birthday in April. Been on “the list” at a Jersey AD for over a year.

Solar Cartier or just palin quartz is one of the few companies that can pull it if, seeing not second hands, usually isn't an everyday watch, doesn't look any different and only any you can tell the difference is look at the back, good for those who wear it now and then. Just prick it up and wear it.

I was able to pick up a watch last year from a AD, from what I’ve been told by both of the ADs in my area is that the Rolex factory was shut down All of 2020 and the demand is at an all time high each watch takes a year to produce Ect…so we should be seeing watches slowly picking up back to pre pandemic I do see both sides ofc there’s a business strategy behind it but it also makes sense with the demand and supply

I think it’s important to distinguish that Rolex may produce scarcity in the limitation of production, but it’s the ADs individual decision to determine where the allocations go. All the people barking at Rolex because their AD won’t give them one while the grey/secondary market is flooded with “unworn” watches are barking at the wrong place. That’s an issue of shady ADs, not the brand. I hear horror stories about all the hoops people are told they must jump through, and that sucks, but it’s not universal. I had to wait four months and was able to pick up a no-date Sub from an AD I had zero purchase history with because I went to a place that valued me as a customer and wanted my business

exclusivity + elusiveness is essential, has made the aspiration + achievement satisfying. the mystery of succeeding is now counter to the system. transparency might help. in theory, if i have the money here + now, i should be able to buy one - but maybe they set conditions on legality of resale.

Would love to see some featured Christopher Ward’s or you should try to partner with them in some way. They are a fantastic watch brand and offer extreme quality and value.

Decided to go for my first luxury watch, obviously had looked at the Datejust and Oyster Perpetual, however seeing as they are impossible to get I looked around and found the Omega Aqua Terra. I went to my local AD, and I fell in love with the Aqua Terra (8900) after seeing it in person. Bought it the same day. Only scary thing now is that I want even more watches. This is a scary hobby.

You guys NAILED what's gonna happen to Rolex. I literally went "you know what, Fuck you Im out!" and proudly bought a bad ass (and in stock) Omega for my 40th, and they treated me awesomely. Rolex has become this Overhyped, mass produced brand that I see is approaching a slippery slope and you know what, I can't wait to see it happen.

Love the discussion. Interesting point of Rolex through history been an elusive watch. Also not taking advantage of the current desirability to enhanced the Cellini line. Personally I ran out of patience and have walk away from Rolex (For Now) Recently bought a beautiful Grand Seiko and deciding what will be next, a Cartier, Breitling or Omega.

I love the Cellini, it’s literally the only Rolex I like, particularly moonphase hahah

I believe that the Rolex bottleneck may lie not so much in production, but in service centers. Think about it... there's a shortage of watchmakers out there, Rolex's have their problems (they may not want you to know about it)... If they increase production they may have the hardest time keeping up with servicing demand under warranty. My experience has led me to wonder if this is true. Thoughts?

Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult just published revenue and volume numbers for all the Swiss brands. How are they getting their numbers? According to them Rolex made over 8 million CHF in revenue and over 1 million watches. Previous record year was 2019 with 5 million in revenue and almost the same number of watches.

If they released more watches per year the gray market bubble would definitely pop,

I bought my wife a Seiko watch with 18k 32 grams nugget band for 600 bucks. If you buy what you like, as exspensive as you can afford, keep the box and books, you will never lose money on something you love. Don't chase the hype. Remember Frank Muller, died on the vine. I like you guys tell the truth about watches. Great job

Rolex is at some degree responsable for the flipping and grey market current situation. Yes its still an achievement to own one, for the status symbol and for what the brand has achieve to place in our minds as a top tier, desirable. Yet because of the "scarcity", people want to get their hands on something valuable for their hard work. Maybe they will wait, put themselves on the waiting list. But then again little by little other good top tier brands will take advantage of this. I understand you have to build a relationship with the brand and some ADs, but sometimes its absurd. This will benefit other competitors if played correctly.

Please talk about the new Tissot PRX models next episode! They now have a 35mm variant and a new chronograph!

Once you understand that "AD" now means "Authorized Distributor" then you understand. Plenty of watches for sale by the AD's. Just not to you at the store.

Im killing this contest🤔⌚️✌️

I was in my AD a couple weeks ago and I noticed he was wearing his 7 Day Portugieser, usually he wears a Platinum Daytona. Rolex asked/told their ADs not to wear Rolex watches given the current scarcity. How lame is that? I own Rolex watches but I’m so done with the brand. PS, buying a Portugieser 7 Day next!

I used to be a Rolex guy for many years but with all the bull crap Rolex is pulling with waitlists and not being able to buy any stainless Rolex at retail I am completely done with Rolex.I am now an omega fan and can purchase at retail or less.Rolex is all games.

Yes.

I'd love to get a 36mm Oyster Perpetual... Probably in green, maybe the yellow one. I'm not sure. But I can't find out, because there are none to try at the ADs... I'm not interested in anything else at Rolex. I love the plain simple Oyster style with a flash of colour. But it seems I won't get it, ever. I really am not the person willing to go through the whole process of begging to buy a base watch of the brand. I know this won't hurt Rolex, but really, I don't care, I won't even try to buy, because of that experience that smells like... Well, you know. I mean. I really want the watch because I like it. But I would most probably be treated like a flipper, or someone who doesn't have enough money to buy something "better" there. And I don't want that. I walked into the Nomos dealer the last weekend and bought two watches, one a "sold out" model, the other one with 6 months backorder (both stated by the Nomos on-line shop here in Europe) and got a discount on them. Well... (BTW: seems like you and bunch of other guys are doing a very good job making Nomos popular in the US, it's where the brand sees a lot of its growth potential lately and that may be causing a bit of a shortage of certain models here in Europe).

Nice subject you are taking up but some hard data would suit you well in laying out your tesis. How many watch buyers go to an AD vs the internet nowadays? What is the influence exerted by bloggers on the purchasing decision? Who is the watch buyer? what is he/she looking for? I bet this human behavior has not changed since the beginning of time, or is it that 50 years ago people only had 1 watch?? Why would any brand seek endorsements from people in power? Any brand would like to have the Rolex demand problem or is it a strategy? Of course they capitalized on the hype if not how can this crazy price increases be justified when most watch brands loose half their worth after purchase? You know what pisses me off is how slow have most competitors been, they just don't get it.

Michael is looking so good rn damn

I'm on the "waitlist" for almost 2 years for a submariner / sea dweller. So far no noise form the AD, actually i visit them maybe 2x a year to check possibilities. The story from last month visit: ALL sport models' are in the display, even the batman, and two tone yacht master. BUT nothing is for SALE, only for show. Since then I'm not even watch the ads from Rolex, just click, and move on. I have more important things in my life than chasing something which looks like never will come. Is ok, I focus on other brands who actually willing to entertain me, and willing to take my money. Cheers!

I don't even want to walk into a Rolex AD anymore, they're empty and have way too much security theater. You know who doesn't give a crap if I try on every watch? Omega/Breigling/GS/JLC/IWC ETC.

I was understand that Rolex is adding an additional production facility to increase through put without reducing quality. Is this no longer the case? There is no shortage of watches, too many go to the Grey Market. 1000s of new watches are available.

The fact that the Theo & Harris watch shop doesn’t sell a grey distressed suede strap is a crime.

I have loved mechanical watches for a long time but for the first time am in a place where I can afford a high end watch without someone starving. I can see the allure of something scarce, but I don't feel that allure personally. I see a lot of youtubers that simp for Rolex, and I can understand that there is some history and quality there, but to me they just seem like people who've paid $30 for a roll of early pandemic toilet paper. I will almost certainly go somewhere else to celebrate my major life events.

Great episode..!!!

You two gentlemen are very entertaining. As for Rolex; I will believe it when I see it.

I always wanted a Rolex, when I was in my 20s I put off spending all my savings on one, I’m now 30-years old and have a stable job and income yet I can’t get a Rolex anymore and have to look at Tudor knowing I’ll get a good watch but not the real thing. It’s really frustrating, I want a one and done watch and not consolidation pieces here and there.

There is no scarcity at all. I can buy anything in the catalog, any time I want. The issue is, the AD's are selling to flippers at a premium and then they hoard and upsell. Scarcity is silly and foolish. Just like Nike, mass produced, and they sell out in minutes, then the bidding war begins on StockX

New sub. Usually love the content and delivery. But your take on how R could fix the scarcity issue is laughably bad. 10% wouldn’t chg anything. They could double production, wouldn’t matter. The solution is: make flipping non-lucrative. Corporate can track the watches via serial # - shut down a few ADs; instant chg of behavior. Also - limit the transfer of warranties.

I don't like being treated like an a-hole for asking an AD to purchase an entry level Rolex sports watch. I've found other luxury ADs to appricate the buying journey for a first time luxury watch buyer and endulge the excitement of trying new pieces.

What I don't understand with particularly Rolex and Patek is that if say a Rolex Submariner 124060 is £7,150 RRP and people are paying £12-15,000 on the grey market. Why are Rolex etc letting the grey market take such a profit on their product. Why not sell your product at the rate the market is willing to pay? Instead you walk into an AD and you get laughed at and even told to buy secondhand.

I come for the watch talk, I stay for the bromance.

The scarcer the steel Rolex sports watches become, the more Tudor sports models are sold. That to me is the strategy underneath the scarcity.

Rolex is most definitely promoting scarcity and it made me despise the brand. I refuse to pay over retail for a Rolex. Sorry, but an OP at $10k, $15k, or $20k is insane. I rather purchase an Omega Aqua Terra.

Something coming definately. All those exhibition only will eventually be for sale, as customers peek and try them, AD "know your customer" they are slowly bringing customers from the gray market to the AD, identified non flipers will get a watch soon.

Chronometer susie !! That killed it 😂 You like watches not the faff that goes with it :)

Should they make the Cellini on a metal bracelet?!

Rolex should release a ‘subswatch’ in plastic ceramic with a quartz movement for $200….could be a thing 🤣🤣🤣 or maybe a Swatchdweller, Swatchtona or deepswatch 👍🏼

i think they should stop making the ones that are hi in the after market so they can stay there and make a bunch of new ones and keep those at retail so the people that spent a lot money on the watches will stay there and the new ones will stay at cheaper prices there for if you want the discontinue ones you’ll have to pay after market that will balance the market

Yeah just went to an AD and got told I’d have to wait maybe a year for an OP😂

Do a review of the JLC please

I like Roman numerals on a watch. I hate the one handed watch and there is no way you can read it as fast as a two handed watch.

I love Rolex and have for forever, but they need to be careful walking this line as people's patience & brand loyalty only goes so far. Even in the enthusiast community. I want to enjoy the experience of buying a new watch. Why would I waste time and money on the current Rolex BS, when there are so many great brands offering more for less.

I do think that Rolex is taking advantage of the hype the industry is experiencing by putting more watches on peoples wrists. They are getting it done through Tudor. This way, in case there is a significant drop in the watch market, the main brand will be largely unaffected.

If They put a bracelet on the Cellini. It will sell

The Morgan Stanley 2021 Swiss Watch Industry report estimated Rolex sold over 1M watches last year. Far more quantity than say... Omega! I think demand is just sooo dang HIGH! And of course it is in their interest to keep people wanting more. But selling over 1M world wild is pretty dang impressive if ya ask me! I think the bigger problem is AD's seem to give the allocations to the same people. I am not complaining as my husband and I.... ARE THOSE PEOPLE aha. But man, it's a freaking hard time to get a Rolex if you're not "in" with an AD.

Screw Rolex and the games the AD's are playing! This BS has actually made me research and discover so many other brands that are on par and even surpass Rolex quality. I've purchased at least 4 amazing timepieces over the last few years, and I'll consider another Rolex once I can get it for msrp again.

There are 2 things that will come of this. They increase production. They increase their retail prices. One thing they could do is actually limit purchases to one per year per customer. It wouldn’t shut down the grey market, but it would give them leverage to slap around AD’s who sell out their allocations instantly. I think I know which one is coming. So many people have said the AD experience is fucking terrible and they’re right. And giving AD’s the right to choose who they sell to by virtue of exclusivity is a garbage way to do business as well. Fair enough they’re exclusive and elusive, but I should be able to purchase/give a deposit on a watch at an AD and have a reasonable understanding of how long I would have to wait for a phone call. Rather than keeping the whole thing behind closed doors and possibly never getting whatever you’re willing to pay for.

They are definitely not create scarcity on purpose. Why nobody accuses PP and AP for creating scarcity? Because they are not.