Predicting the Future - The Basics of MathHammer

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On this episode, Brad and Eric bring you back to one of the most exciting moments in everyone’s childhood: Math Class!!! But this time, instead of learning how to figure out the length of all the sides on a triangle, we optimize how to massacre our opponents on the battlefield!
Show Links:
Patreon: / solelysingleton
Website: poorhammer.libsyn.com/
Brad’s Twitter: / drruler
Eric’s Twitter: / onekuosora
00:00 Intro
00:51 UnitCrunch
02:21 Basic Dice Math
05:20 10th Edition Keywords
10:01 Shooting a Space Marine with Termagants
19:02 Electrocuting a Space Marine with Immortals
23:08 Kicking a Leman Russ with Custodes
27:48 Buff stacking with Genestealer Cults
32:16 Comboing off with Thousand Sons
37:11 Final Thoughts
Licensed Music Used By This Program:
“Night Out” by LiQWYD, CC BY
“Thursday & Snow (Reprise)” by Blank & Kytt, CC BY
“First Class” by Peyruis, CC BY
“Funky Souls” by Amaria, CC BY
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Funky Souls by Amarià / amariamusique
Creative Commons - Attribution 3.0 Unported - CC BY 3.0
Free Download / Stream: bit.ly/Funky-Souls
Music promoted by Audio Library - • Funky Souls - Amarià (...
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Опубликовано:

3 июл 2024

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Комментарии : 191

@thepoorhammerpodcast Год назад

UnitCrunch for those interested in trying it out: www.unitcrunch.com/ Sound on this episode should be louder than old episodes, but without the horrible audio quality issues caused by experimenting during last episode. We're going to use this volume moving forward. Special thanks to the random audience member who emailed us the GIGACHAD advice on how to fix the audio while also boosting it in Premier Pro.

@vonshroom2068 Год назад

There is some crackling on the audio when the volume spikes. Very noticable the first 90 seconds but occasionally popin here and there from there on out. Maybe the gain is set to high or a slightly blown mic/ board channel?

@joeacnatety Год назад

I appreciate your desire to shoot my wolves, I have been playing them for 19 years and have never played against thousand sons, but 10th finally got me to make my third army which is the thousand sons.

@SuperDuperHappyTime Год назад

Ah yes, Mathhammer. The first step above and beyond any level of playtesting that GW will perform.

@kitsunez Год назад

Literally rolling dice is a steop above and beyond what gw does

@rwjscaper Год назад

LOL GW BAD XD XD XD XD

@135forte 5 месяцев назад

@@rwjscaper Deathwatch Index having an 'unintended' combo they missed that was nerfed the day after it went public.

@keithsimpson2685 4 месяца назад

IDK as a fighting game person it seems like a game with this many models and layered buff rules is still a nightmare to balance with 30+ years of models inherited. The more generic and balanced it gets the less flavorful it may be unless you really get into the weeds then its a pain to play

@135forte 4 месяца назад

@@keithsimpson2685 MtG spotted a jank interaction with a new card and two previously existing cards and released a new ruling to fix it the day the set launched. Now, considering that each set can have more unique cards than Space Marines has units and that Space Wolves *alone* have more data sheets (at just over 30) than half the game's factions, how does it make sense that GW can't even keep a single Codex straight?

@TallDarknGruesome Год назад

1:15 reminds me of my favorite saying as a consultant. "Math doesn't lie, that's a job for statistics. "

@christopherclayton5500 Год назад

The three kinds of lies.

@chainer8686 11 месяцев назад

Remember that when rolling 1d6, there's no bell curve. It's an equal chance of rolling any face value. What matters is how many faces, that's why a +1 is really strong.

@fenrir7878 Год назад

"There's 4 types of lies, damn lies, Chaos lies, and statistics" Mathematics according to Warhammer 40k.

@alastaircollins1145 7 месяцев назад

There's actually a fifth chaos god, the god of statistics, but he only exists as 0.9999 recurring and the Ecclesiarchy rounds down.

@nathanegnew1923 Год назад

96% chance to hit. *Misses 12 times in a row*

@RanVor Год назад

Got some really bad seeds for that RNG.

@kato1kalin 11 месяцев назад

That's XCOM baby!

@unitcrunch9378 Год назад

This is probably the best episode you've ever done.

@moralecheck2067 Год назад

😂

@thepoorhammerpodcast Год назад

Shut up nerd.

@unitcrunch9378 Год назад

@@thepoorhammerpodcast Kiss my maths.

@reeceramos3051 Год назад

My favorite combo is a 10 man lychguard sword and shield unit, a technomancer with hypermaterial ablatoir, and an overlord with res orb. This gives them a 5+FNP, double reanimation, -1 to hit at range, light cover from more than 12", -1 to wound in general because the overlord is a noble, and the shields give them a 4+ invul

@thepoorhammerpodcast Год назад

Add a pair of Murder Buckets and you got yourself my favorite immovable brick. Eric was not amused in our first game.

@daryljackson6088 Год назад

What is this bucket of murder you speak of?

@dyciefisk2535 Год назад

@@daryljackson6088 Cryptothralls. They are a mini bodyguard unit you can attach to a unit if you have a Cryptek already attached. This makes for 3 units attached to 1.

@ChumblesMumbles Год назад

@@daryljackson6088 Cryptothralls, I believe. They look like buckets on legs.

@DibbzTheLoner Год назад

@@dyciefisk2535 most OP part of Cryptothralls is they permanently count as part of the bodyguard unit, so even if all of the thrall models die they can be endlessly brought back with Reanimation Protocol.

@nonya1366 Год назад

Now I'm imagining the "strands of fate" Is just the eldar codeword for "Math"

@jwebcoding7289 9 месяцев назад

That’s canonically how Necron Chronomancers predict the future.

@alastaircollins1145 7 месяцев назад

Harry Seldon hasn't entered the chat, there's a pinned message from him that was posted day one and never quite made sense until now...

@Kackers25 Год назад

The editing on this is really good... "lets go back to basics" and shows a clip of unit coherency being explained from the GW video

@Cannonhead Год назад

33:35 Whether or not you can fire pistol weapons is actually determined on a model-by-model basis. If you look at the text in the rulebook, it says "If a model is equipped with one or more pistols, unless it is a monster or vehicle, it can either shoot with its pistols or all of its other ranged weapons". I play Thousand Sons as well, and that tripped me up at first too, but after I checked the rules, it works out fine, just give the Sorcerer a sword so he can shoot and melee.

@ThommBara 10 месяцев назад

Good observation. But then I can only use one melee weapon per fight, right? So I'd get to choose the stave or the kopesh depending on the circumstances, but it feels kinda wasteful too?

@oldchinahand1305 Год назад

I’ve struggled with maths and dropped it after GCSE with the intention of picking it up again….however I’ve been thinking about maths in 40K and how to use it to my advantage in games so a big thumbs up from me and please keep making Math(s)hammer!

@chaseh432 Год назад

I really respect what yall did here, but it might be the first episode I can't finish. My mind just gets glassed from exterminatus running through these lengthy math scenarios!

@Ozzblahing Год назад

I would argue that statistics don't lie to you (barring crappy math) it's just that they can still fail you - you should put money on statistics, like that's the whole point of them, you just also gotta accept that sometimes that money will go away.

@Pazuzu4All Год назад

Statistics is a useful tool when generalizing with a large sample size. It's not as useful when examining individual cases and can be misleading if you aren't careful.

@notaninquisitor7274 Год назад

Statistics are a language of relationships. Numbers are their alphabet. The problems occur when you mistranslate what the combination of numbers is saying. Numbers without context have no meaning.

@malachaiparker6733 Год назад

Is Eric actually a Nuclear Physicist? Like that's the biggest bomb from this episode and I need to know. And if he is thank you for all the amazing work you do sorry people are idiots

@EnRandomSten Год назад

I mean techincally a hydrogen bomb would be a "bigger bomb" than a nuke :P

@brianshea2515 9 месяцев назад

I believe that I heard in a different episode that he has that Degree, but works in a different field.

@dasmause5682 Год назад

Funnily enough, you used that XCOM footage from a playthrough where that sectoid was bugged.

@offtankgaming1310 Год назад

Just discovered the show, could have used this years ago but I’m binging your content, you guys are great! Loved the editor guest episode for army building, great stuff guys! Cool episode (math is cool damnit)

@chaoslordzar7601 Год назад

Thanks for another great video! Always entertaining and a bright spot in my week

@aaronm3795 Год назад

Very stupid combo: Captain Tycho for blood angels can give ranged weapons rapid fire 1. Put him, a lieutenant with bolter discipline, and 10 foot vanguard veterans with inferno pistols in a rhino. Now make Mortarion your oath target, disembark the bomb within 3” of him, and one tap him on average with just shooting

@user-mn1ye6kt2i Год назад

My current favourite is to pull this from the other side. How durable can I make this. Sword and board lychguard with technomancer crypothralls and an overlord for -1 to wound toughness 6, 3+ save 4++, 4 or 5+++ and regening wounds each turn

@OGXenos Год назад

World Eaters can run 120 Jackals with Daemon Princes and Blessings of Khorne to have a 120 wound army with a 4+ invuln and 5+ feel no pain lol

@cable1153 Год назад

this is my favorite podcast and if its ok could you consider talking about the best units to run in an army of each main faction eg. necrons, orks, and custodians?

@RanVor Год назад

The "3.5" thing is something of a misconception. The chance of hitting every number on a D6 is nominally equal (it might be slightly off depending on how well the die is balanced). Therefore, by definition, there cannot be such a thing as an expected result. What the "3.5 average" really means is that if you roll a die enough times (like, over a thousand or something like that), the sum total of your results will eventually become something around 3.5 times the number of times you rolled the die, due to all the ones and sixes evening each other out. It does not mean that rolling a four is more likely than rolling a six. It's not. It's the exact same chance of either. I'm sure you understand this, I just didn't hear you explain it in the video, so I decided to put it out there.

@BlackSquadPro Год назад

I'm excited for this!

@malorian1855 Год назад

Love the xcom vid when talking about missing a shot,

@zephyrstrife4668 Год назад

Math hammer is fun and all, but we've all seen those incredibly low statistic rolls where a single dude manages to completely tank a melee squad all around him except for the commander despite being a crisis battlesuit. I was that guy, I had a crisis commander who was surrounded and just absolutely devastated a close combat space marine squad in my first ever game.

@Goosemanpointnine Год назад

I really would like to see pages of notes and/or a visual representation of the mathematical effort that was put into this. Or a T-shirt demonstrating how it translates to a disappointing dice roll. Love the symposium!

@GrandNagusEli Год назад

Thanks for the unitcrunch website.

@the_average_canadian Год назад

Great thumbnail. Editor, we appreciate you.

@moken1879 Год назад

Its cool to see how math people look at warhammer. My monkey brain just sees numbers and pulls the slot machine handle and then it is what it is.

@b-beale1931 3 месяца назад

Why I play orks

@atomic-law7764 Год назад

A great way to start the morning

@roachbagjr9358 11 месяцев назад

If only Brad had that website when building the “2000 point army for 500$” Video

@TheMadSpam Год назад

Oooh more math and combo's please 😊

@ryanwitt1993 Год назад

New to the hobby (Sisters 4 Ever) and happy I found y'all! Great content, lads.

@torinnbalasar6774 4 месяца назад

Wish I had learned about this tool 2 months ago when I started getting into the game, would've saved so many afternoons building spreadsheets for basic economy crunching.

@theangrylizard2711 Год назад

Math with our dads is the best math

@gazin1065 Год назад

A lot less yelling than normal though😊

@the_inquisitive_inquisitor Год назад

Best Warhammer podcast.

@jcmsaucey6555 Год назад

"RU-vid pleasantries" is my new favorite term

@othnielarkaine Год назад

This video was perfect. Played a game yesterday. GSC vs. Necrons, I had two 10person squads of Neophyte Hybrids attacking a squad of Lich guard. I definitely shot everything I had into them twice and did nothing. Not a single point of damage. Wish I saw this video beforehand.

@Demigodish4o3 Год назад

You forgot to add Kurt Angle into the mix.

@Leperchaun84 Год назад

True, chances of winning would drastic go down.

@starkill97 Год назад

Eric freaking at the end.....is me

@earnestwanderer2471 Год назад

Countless “lunch hours”. Right. Any time between 8am and 6pm.

@tombolton2140 8 месяцев назад

A fun combo is a full 10 sized unit of Drukhari Scourges run in a Ynnari arny with all splinter cannons and shard carbines. You pop the Bladestorm strat for 2 bonus AP on critical wounds, and then all the ANTI-Infantry 3+ wounds will become pretty deadly

@JackDespero 10 месяцев назад

Damn. I created basically unitcrunch in a python module before i just watched this video and learnt about the website.

@joshuaclark3406 11 месяцев назад

Wow you guys weren't wrong, these videos are really a step above the audio only version, consider me a convert!

@nickgillie5595 Год назад

You guys made math fun

@ChumblesMumbles Год назад

Definitely showcases the potential power of leadership, auras, and strategem interactions. When you see someone just using CP to do re-rolls and nothing else, or running lists that don't give them good CP generation, it's likely that they aren't getting the most value out of their units as they could.

@wsleppy4699 Год назад

I'm sad you didn't add Twist of Fate to the kast combo with Tsons (turning off their armor save). It's very possible on turn 1 or 2 and really takes the damage to the moon

@hd9y1jdjad Год назад

Is that a f*cking clip from Super Best Friends play Xcom 2? Hell yeah.

@Gurmudgin Год назад

New Math! Newheuwhew math! It’s so simple, that only a child could do itttt!!!! Yeah don’t trust the funny numbers, always assume your opponent will roll the best, and you will roll the worst. It’s easier that way. Edit: thanks for doing some of my termigaunt math for me. Honestly actually extremely useful.

@TheCityofTownsville 11 месяцев назад

I normally have to listen to 3 different videos before I sub to a channel. This was the 2nd vid I've watched, and I just subbed. Guess you rolled that crit, gents!

@stop_calling_me_willy2743 Год назад

Wow I didn’t know he was a Nuclear Physicist, I’m curious as to what he thinks of his job? I’m in college right now, majoring in Physics with the end goal of hopefully becoming a Nuclear Physicist myself, so I’d love to know what he thinks of it and his personal opinions on the field in general.

@thefloridaman41 Год назад

The feels when you are a Daemon player so you don’t get options… or index synergy. Math Hammer gets kinda depressing

@travelbyfire8474 Год назад

Look at your Be'lakor model. That's a sweet model. Do you feel better? :)

@Bluecho4 Год назад

On the other hand, if you hate mathhammer or making loadout decisions, you can just pick whatever units you want and throw them in an army. They won't necessarily be _good,_ but you can do it.

@communisticus191 Год назад

@@travelbyfire8474 doesn't help if you are playing true mono god (without undivided units)

@travelbyfire8474 Год назад

@@communisticus191 My solution was to enjoy how cool Be'lakor's model looks to feel better. This remains true even if you play Tyranids.

@communisticus191 Год назад

@@travelbyfire8474 Very true, but my point was more "It doesn't help if you don't have a Be'lakor model to look at since you only build true mono god lists". At least the GD still look baller on the shelf

@dxpsumma383 Год назад

One half of the comments: I'm stumped by the math Other half: don't undersell the math so hard, statistics doesn't lie, you just need some understanding and context. I guess what trips most people up and good on you for bringing this up: it's not just all about averages. If you want to understand your army, you need to look at different measure of variance to understand how consistently it will perform.

@lordofhyphens Год назад

The Thousand Sons combo is also super expensive, but that's how things go. If you have 1 more CP you can extend the bolter range.

@Walpurgisnackt Год назад

I love the gambler's falaky

@Speeds_Gaming_Corner Год назад

Quick note on the Termagant shooting marines thing. Wounding on 5s with twin linked is closer to 55% wounds. Not a huge difference from 50%, but the pistol does do a bit more on average

@MrAgentIncognito 5 месяцев назад

I recognized the SBFP XCOM footage. It's a shame you guys didn't use the very next shot, when a bug caused a hilarious miss.

@MechaEmperor7000 Год назад

My friend is still pissed that my librarian managed to face-tank 40 burst cannon hits with only 1 wound. Statistically, he should be dead. Realistically, he is the master of the 6's.

@SumsieBun 3 месяца назад

As a savescummer that played both xcom games, the meme is real. Both games have built in algorithms for each roll called a seed. The seed is determined before the roll and it has to be modded out if you want the math to actually roll out. Missing a 96% chance to hit sure sucks but it’s certainly possible but if you save scum you will discover that shot will MISS 96% of the time. Xcom specifically (Baldurs Gate 3 has a similar “seed” algorithm) absolutely fudges rolls because it’s literally coded into the game.

@Azrael178 8 месяцев назад

My quick average resoult calculation is to utilise the fact im looking up stats in an app anyway and have a calculator opened. Whenever I need to calculate predicted DMG i just quickly do "number of shots"/6 times the amount of dice resouts that succed and then repeat the same with ammount of successes per wound and then for saves. It's bare bones basic doesn't account for rerolling special rules etc but gives a general idea if you need to use that strat for Dev wounds or +1ap

@Gunthersby Год назад

One time in Titanicus I would hit 8-10 shots with one weapon each turn, it needed 5+ save... And not one of them wounded, 3 turns in a row

@Gworkag Год назад

So, this is the episode where Orikan doesn't guess future, he's just a math nerd ? As usual, awesome episode, great content.

@Glatius Год назад

Love the gigachad war criminal profile

@thepoorhammerpodcast Год назад

These weren't even memes for the episode, that's my actual UnitCrunch basic profiles I run stuff against while bored on lunch.

@Troph2 Год назад

Dont rely on those +AP on hit modifier. I missed all 8 autocannon shots from my LR then missed 9/11 HK missiles all RR1 to hit.

@4englishlies875 Год назад

Ok then I have never played, and this math scares me.... I think I will stick with the stories and maybe build a model or two....lol Guys great job explaining how some of this works, but still staying with the stories. Keep up the great work!!

@VaSoapman Год назад

Acolytes with demo charges can actually take a big chunk out of a knight. You need a handful of stratagems, but they can hit it pretty hard.

@randomusernameCallin Год назад

For dice pool it better to look at how the odds change when the situation change.

@theelkwithhands788 11 месяцев назад

Heard the nuclear physic background and peaked my ears haha. Am currently studying radiation therapy (the side of radiation where we to help people) and it still doesn’t need a doctorate 😅

@KrokusOfDagon Год назад

Kind of on brand for Brad to want to predict the outcome of events since his character and favorite army is, well, the Tzeentch one

@sockylogic2014 Год назад

I have a cool combo, I just need those psychic thousand sons to get into charge distance of my psychophages.

@ThisOldBoy Год назад

I really enjoyed MathHammer

@ryza7760 11 месяцев назад

i shall comment to support the video

@RSBurgener Год назад

Math is the blind spot in my intelligence. If I focus on it HARD I can do really well at it. But I can't conceptualize numbers very well in my brain, not naturally. So I'm not sure if I'll ever become a probability player. I'll probably come to these realizations more intuitively.

@kuroshine 11 месяцев назад

As an engineer thisnepisode made me happy

@Deathsinger99 10 месяцев назад

We love breakpoints

Год назад

"Lies, damned lies, and 4% chance to miss in XCOM"

@william3958 Год назад

The fleshborer is exactly why no gear costs blows

@pear-head Год назад

I'd watch this, but I already listened to the pod. Still, I'll leave a comment for your algorithm

@ThatWildcard Год назад

The only math i need is More Dakka = more hits = more damage Waaaaaaaagh!

@archer9480 Год назад

To be fair, XCOM statistics might as well not exist with how the game seems to actively fudge the numbers against the player. "95% chance to hit" in that game actually means you'll hit about 60% of your shots, while "25% chance to get hit" means you'll be hit 50% of the time.

@deadtotheworld22 11 месяцев назад

What utter heresy did I just witness at 28:06?

@8-7-styx94 Год назад

The new destructor rule on predators is a nifty little thing. It turns Inferno heavy bolters from AP -2 to AP -3 , letting you nom on some wolves for cheap. Just wish I had a Razorback with a pair of inferno combis and a twin inferno heavy on top. Then life would be good. Maths would be fun, and smurfs would fall victim to IFVs just as they should.

@desecrationfly Год назад

Never tell me the odds!

@lordpasta6 Год назад

First! Make sure to turn on post notifications!

@aiken2258 Год назад

Out of curiosity with the Immortals and Custodes was their unit ability to re-roll wound rolls of 1 taken into account?

@thepoorhammerpodcast Год назад

Yes for Immortals (though only 1s, we did all as well but that was cut from the video version to make the episode flow better.) No for custodes, I forgot to even check their ability until we had moved on...

@beanman853 Год назад

GW dice have a bias for 1s (somebody did a test to this with several thousand rolls)

@beanman853 Год назад

And you shouldn't be using Bell curves for dice

@donnerrob6615 9 месяцев назад

@@beanman853why not?

@crazykev5 10 месяцев назад

I got lossed in the sauce in this video lol

@Rohnon 10 месяцев назад

I'm currently making a bunch of homebrew Points-Changes, because GW's pointcosts are not based on statistics and math, but they are used to push products. I hate statistics tho. So this will be fun.

@giantninja9173 10 месяцев назад

good luck with that. militarum will be a nightmare between all the characters' abilities, orders, weapon profiles, and outside buffs in various combinations for just the 4 different battleline units.

@nos2342 Год назад

Yay maths!

@iantusa9207 Год назад

You’re wrong about XCOM, XCOM doesn’t actually show you real values or roll the dice. It predetermined outcomes using a partial random generator.

@LoneBarren Год назад

Did Brad just make his own set of all the data sheets in UnitCrunch? Cause even the reddit for UnitCrunch only has Custodes, Sisters and Tyrranids. If so can you share please

@evanthesquirrel 9 месяцев назад

Burning incense for the machine spirit

@elizabethkoenig3157 Год назад

Thousand sons are going to be so cp starved. I need more cultists

@timiddrake 11 месяцев назад

XCOM - Long War - Rebalance! Best game ever!

@alvarohernani6645 11 месяцев назад

According to statistics if a shoot 2 arrows, one goes 1 meter to the left of the target and the other 1 meter to the left, it would give me a perfect aim😎

@drewe51 5 месяцев назад

I really like this episode. I think there's a common strangeness to language that you guys are using that I also hear often when speaking to players who don't really understand math hammer. You keep saying that fewer dice rolls will make something more reliable. That is incorrect. Fewer dice rolls will make something better, usually, but fewer dice rolls will always make something more "swingy" which is less reliable. More dice means you'll be closer to the mean. Fewer rolls means you're usually going to perform better. So something can be reliably bad, but it'll be reliable.