Plausible especially when corporate interests are in play. Let’s keep space exploration in the hands of cooperating international scientists who are simply trying to gain knowledge. Well done, really liked it and a warning of sorts about how things could go.
Just want to point out , human colonies will be where the water is, which are the poles and getting less towards the equator, The only problem is that they are very cold and kind of permafrost ground , so not easy to build on or in. This means the next easiest areas to setup base's are next to the glaciers of mars, most of which at the edge of the permafrost towards the equator, but still far away from it. Their will be more AI enhanced robots/droids then people on mars, which are easier and more flexible, get work done faster, everything from building , assembling, maintaining and exploration.
DUH - Because the scenario required Earth to survive until Mars gets self-sustaining. More seriously, why has Russia not dropped a single nuke in Ukraine so far? Because that is a lose-lose-lose strategy.
WW3 sees limited nuclear exchange - less than 50 bombs dropped, chiefly between India and Pakistan and in Eastern Europe. None of the great powers want to open pandora’s box, so they avoid directly challenging each other’s homeland and instead aim to draw each other into decisive naval engagements or tank/drone battles.
This title is way to clickbaity i thought this was going to be a general discussion of possibilities not a fanfic. But i wanna respond to it just for fun. Firstly i think that the spanish colonization of mexico is a bad comparison as the colonizers did not know about the americas so nothing about what to expect and what would happen. If anything it would be akin to the scramble for africa, as in europeans knew it was there but they wouldnt survive there because of diseases that the african population was adapted to like malaria. Europeans would be decimated at large by diseases in africa which was why no further exploration was attempted earlier, besides a few expeditions along the big rivers, besides the tremendous hostile environments like dense jungles and vast deserts, the heroic age of exploration also took place in africa with europeans mapping out the inner continent which was previously unknown. Notice how once the technology and the means were had the europeans organized themselves very neatly and split the continent amongst themselves with little disputes. Ofc they had ambitions, but they were either achieved or rended null by ww1. Mars is even easier candy because theres no baby to take it from its uninhabited. Not to mention the outer space treaty would immediately be rewritten the moment colonization would be feasible, and trust me the bit about no national land in space would be kept in. Removing it would mean creating dozens of new conflicts and possible wars. Wars which would be detrimental to corporate profits so corpos would lobby in favor of the clause staying in even if the country people cant get along the money people would by them up i mean corporate lobbying is already such a normal part of 99% of democracies, not to mention why would the corpos want national colonization? They could do it themselves and profit directly. Hell they prolly made the tech thats used by the nationals anyway. A multinational expedition would be sent just like in red mars. And settlement would be privatized. Not to mention that the world runs on debt mars will be colonized no matter the cost and before the moon. Fuck the moon the moon is worthless compared to mars. The moon will be like phobos a pit stop for voyages. The first inhabitants of mars would be scientists. Until manual labour is brought in to build infrastructure until the floodgates are open. Mars will be UN administrated unless the un is gone somehow, they would communicate via liaisons from the scientific community and would start selling land grants to corpos or other private interest groups and prolly cut deals with countries so they can “export” their population to work for corpos in mars corporations would pay for this and have massive investments private security would be the law in mars and ud answer to whichever firm is managing the block ur housed at. Because of course housing and workplace would be owned by different corporations and be under different jurisdictions and thats just one of the many things. Think about it your dropping licensed equipment onto a foreign planet. You are operating a mining digga for one corpo then taking a tram home owned by another one. And you live in a shelter thats under x security firm which protects the interests of corporation y. I mean it would be a nightmare but it would happen quick and efficient like the scramble it wouldnt be a long form process that needs several world wars and national rivalries to be executed to completion. Eventually the corpos would centralize cuz its so fucked to make money if everyone makes a little bit off this one bit of mars and truly mega corps (this is when moon based companies would emerge signifying their independence from earth but still close to influence/ have an impact on earth) would emerge. So now through its many child corporation one of these mega corps will own everything in a bit of Mars including the land (remember these colonists would be settled workers), don’t get me wrong at first many will opt for rotation work like in Antarctica eventually that will be phased out and as fast as possible cuz its just inefficient from then on theres no precedents to factor in so anything could happen and making any predictions would be foolish since who knows? Also the un would centralize as well wether that would mean a unitary govt or smth else idk. The third world war would if anything be about that. Also wtf was that techno-military american govt and why did it have to be so evil?
Lmao, you're saying "this is how it will happen" and you predict WW3??? LOL I thought this was a semi serious discussion about Mars exploration, not some weird future history fantasy of yours US corporaricracy too? Lol
@@wildviper well, I already said it WW3? US corporatocracy? Global State dissolution... Also you don't talk about technological change much, like as if the world would remain technologically the same for the entire twenty second century...
Why is WW3 in the 2050s implausible? If you haven't been watching the news, there's a fresh land war in Europe, China is looking hungrily at Taiwan, and Cold War rhetoric is back. Also, meanwhile, corporations have Gilded Age level influence over our politics in the United States. Give it a century of progression and it's very plausible that national governments will have less power than international corporations--especially if a country is weakened by a world war, which is the case in the video. Also technology wasn't the central focus of the video. Obviously technology progresses, given that there are colonies on Mars. @@alezar2035
As science fiction it is fine, but here is the reality: 1. Humans are never returning to the moon or visiting Mars. Never ever. 2. World War III circa 2040 or whenever isn't going to happen. There is a reason why World Wars I & II happened in the first half of the 20th century and no global wars followed: resource constraints forbid global warfare no later than 1948. 3. Wars between superpowers such as China and the USA are forbidden for the same reason. Resource constraints forbid such a war even beginning. 4. Instead of world war civilization will collapse into anarchy no later than 2040, and as it turns out anarchy is worse than world war because wars can end whereas anarchy need not end. 5. The Malthusian collapse follows immediately after the collapse of civilization since global agriculture cannot function within the context of collapse and anarchy.
@dihvocfoscocudvyvdd8101 NASA can make whatever plans it wishes there won't be any humans ever returning to the moon, ever. As to the collapse of civilization, if you imagine that the USA is fine even right now in 2023 you are seriously mistaken. If you imagine that Europe is fine you are also mistaken. India and China aren't fine at all. Under the worst case scenario the entire global banking and investment system could implode suddenly and unexpectedly with or without cause at any moment. Under a more realistic scenario civilization will decline but hold itself together until 2040 when the collapse of agriculture and mass migration causes the collapse. In either case civilization won't exist by 2050.
I disagree with your reasoning on point 2, but I agree more world wars are unlikely. Not sure what you mean by "resource constraints" but the reason I don't see more world wars coming is because of how interconnected the economy is. Both US and China have a fuck ton to lose by going to war with each other. At 4, why? why would the world break down into anarchy? And also, as war has to end, anarchy also has to end. People will want to unite to form more powerful bodies to protect themselves and their property. It is human nature to collectivize and people won't forget the concept of nations that fast.
@@andreisandulescu9042 the global economy was connected before World Wars I & II. These two wars were European wars and they involved countries that had economic, genetic and religious ties which went back more than a thousand years before the onset of warfare. The resource constraints that forbid any future World War involve two things: the supply of energy required for warfare became limited and the supply of equipment for warfare became time limited. Back during the world wars it was possible to mass produce ships, warplanes and tanks because the technology of that time was simple and therefore not time intensive. Compare that to how much time is required to build an airplane or ship today. Finally, the end state of civilization is anarchy because maintaining political control over regions requires more energy than will be available post-2040. That this world is breaking down into anarchy is evident already worldwide as the margins are collapsing and the global powers cannot exert any control over them. Also it is worth noting that wars that could begin and end in years are now taking decades. See Afghanistan for a famous example involving two superpowers defeated.
