Bo Nix? So far, JJ McCarthy has had 2 Great Games & everyone thinks he's NFL-ready. Nix has had 2 great _season_ & everyone's convinced he's gonna be a dud. I'll check out *your* take.
Dude wtf are you talking about they’re both born in 2000 and Penix Jr. is only 5 months apart from Kyle when it comes to turning 24 so basically they’re the same age
Accuracy can be improved through training. Fast and accurate reading will be improved through film room, development, and coaching. The only true gamble is Penix's durability/availability. Then again, injury is a matter of sheer luck or lack thereof (Watson, Murray, Rodgers, Burrow), and quickly forgotten if not forgiven (Lamar, Tua) when all goes well. Thanks a million for the best educational vids.
There is so much to be gained! Firstly, I don't know if you've ever tried to read an NFL playbook - but the complexity ramps up exponentially. Understanding pass protections, hot reads and new route concepts at the pro level doesn't happen overnight, no matter how intelligent you are - I watch tape for a living and am still regularly confused by things NFL teams do - this shit is COMPLEX. And that's only your own playbook - the looks defenses are giving you are much more complex than what anyone really runs in college (okay theres probably like 5-8 teams running this stuff, but it's not many) - NFL teams are also much better at game planning specifically for what you are - regularly morphing week to week - that's a hell of a lot to put on a rookie. Oh, and that guy who was top of the scouting report to look out for in college? Well you now have 11 of those hunting you down, trying to pick you off, and put you in the dirt - Don't ruin a rookies confidence by chucking them in too early.
@@ThinkingFootball Desmond Ridder set in the bench for about a year and how did that work out? Almost every QB I heard has said reps are more important than sitting on the bench. Matt Ryan has said that, Romo said that, Brady, Manning, Kurt Warner, etc.
i totally get the falcons picking a qb at 8 even though it still would have been much better if they held off and took edge. however... why penix??? the whole deal with him coming into the draft is that he was a guy that was NFL ready that you could pick and immediately expect at least passable play. if your plan coming into the draft is to take a developmental QB, why not go for mccarthy, who is younger, more mobile (ik penix ran a 4.5 40 but theres no shot teams are letting him run with the injury history he has), and has a lot more room to grow ill admit im not as high on penix as a lot of people seem to be but misgivings about his true talent level and the fanclub hes developed aside, it was a stupid pick based on who penix is strictly as a prospect and who was available for the falcons to take
U lost all credibility when u mentioned JJ McCarthy 😂 Just stop it lol. The only thing going for JJ is his age, it’s a reason why he is the handoff king
Penix didn't put much scrambling on tape, but when you dig in and you find some of the times he threw on the run, and you look at his 40 time at the Combine which was 4.5 and change, he has the ability make things happen with his feet. He had three very important scrambles for first downs against Texas and the sugar bowl. It's definitely not his bread and butter, but I don't think coaches care too much about that, because takes so few sacks because he's very good at moving in the pocket and getting the ball out. If Kirk wasn't there, Atlanta would be such a perfect landing spot for him. I think the Falcons are going to move on from Kirk next off season if they can. As soon as Kirk spilled the beans about tampering, I think that's when the Falcons began thinking about life beyond Kirk. And they're going to want to get a pick for him next year because they're going to lose a pick for him next year.
Kirk has a no trade clause in his contract. He'd have to waive it for a trade to even happen. And if he's on the market how much do the Falcons honestly believe they'll get back? They are stuck with him for 2 years minimum
Lamar's jump from college was mostly by having a new set of receivers that didn't drop everything, but yes Allen's accuracy went up a good ten points in the pros.
Lamar has always had an accurate arm - his accuracy at Louisville was excellent placement wise, but as previous comments say, he suffered from a lot of drops Josh Allen drastically changed his mechanics year 1 to 2
Penix seems like a great quarterback. It seems kind of odd to go after Cousins and draft him though. They might have been better off getting a cheaper veteran for him to sit behind for a year or two.
Oh yeah,I see your point. But how long do they plan on him being the backup? That's what confused me. It seems like they would focus on helping Cousins now, or building for Penix and the future. @ThinkingFootball
@@benmckinney2941 like he said play cousins for two years and then let penix step in, see how he does and go from there. I don't see why these guys can't be developed because they're older?? Unless it's accuracy like he said that makes more sense.
Also, something else not talked about is if the falcons go for a cheap vet (ie. Minshew, Brissett), the rest of the league knows for sure they are still in the qb market and teams would’ve probably been even more aggressive in jumping in the draft to get him.
Also, remember that the falcons have an OC who has NEVER called an NFL game. Would you also want to throw a rookie QB in with that? As Kirk has some familiarity with the expected offense, he'll be better able to aide in teaching and implementing this offense than Penix would. And Penix will be able to learn from the ground up.
Everyone is destroying this pick but if Cousins goes down week 5 the Falcons look like geniuses . Ask the Jets, Cardinals, Vikings etc what happens when you're main stud goes down
The Penix pick really isn't an issue even if it was a reach at 8. The problem is Blank is mega paying a dude with Kirk for at least 2 seasons and then having an expensive back up. Hell if the owner/GM was alright getting a real bridge QB solution and taking Penix, that would be a good usage of resources. The Falcons roster still have holes to improve but they can't focus on that having money tied up in the wrong way. Of those teams you mentioned when their QB went down, Cards still have more holes to fill so GM Monti will wheel and deal again in 2025 to get better talent around the team. Vikings got bad enough to get a high pick to deal out *AND* and get their developmental QB and a potential EDGE starter. All while having a bridge QB prove to be a solid starter under a working offensive coach. Their process has solid and still helps improve the roster AROUND the QB in the present and future.
I like that he's not playing right away so he have ample opportunity to correct the flaws in his game. Then it'll be up to the OC to highlight his strengths.
Extremely smart move to me. You’re gonna win now, and you’re going to win in the future… As a Vikings fan, Kirk cousins is exactly who he showed himself to be on that 4th & 7 play in the playoffs . You can’t win a Super Bowl with him, but he will never be bad enough to tank. You can get out of the Kirk cousins business after two years with a minimal dead hit, in an ever increasing salary cap league. Michael Penix Junior is in Atlanta, a team that is surrounded with a good offensive line and weapons that specifically fit his skill set… Which is the part I love the most. The move was definitely strange though, because somewhere between tampering with Kurt, cousins, and meeting with Michael Penny at the NFL, combine, the Falcons fell in love with the guy, I don’t think they would have tampered with Kirk cousins if they liked Michael Penick so much from the start. Somewhere along the line, the plan changed, and that can be concerning as a fan. But I think flexibility in your plan is a good quality to have as a front office, in addition, the concept of having a strong team first, while currently having the quarterback of the future on the roster, sitting and learning is a concept that has historically proven to work. So I like it a lot
So you get an NFL ready quarterback and lose 2 years or more of his rookie deal and before that guarantee $100 million and tamper with a veteran qb and probably lose a top draft pick in 2025. Where are these good ideas? This only helps if something bad happens which is the 100 million qb plays like ass or gets severely hurt.
Either Kirk goes down again and they have an older more starting ready rookie QB to lean back on or I think Penix takes over some time through next season for Cousins to be cut or traded at the end of season 2. If you think next years rookie QB class stinks and you loved this guy then it makes a tonne of sense if all the QBs are being picked top 10. I feel like people overvalue the draft way too much. They will declare a teams season over if they dont pick according to ESPN mock draft when most of the time getting just 1 first year starter is a massive success. Free agency is far more important.
@@henrywallacesghost5883 I think he gets even better by sitting. I don’t think he is better than cousins at this very moment. That’s why her cousins will start. You get a bigger return by letting him develop. That $100 million dealers heavily loaded… All the guarantees will essentially be paid out after 2025. And I think they are aware that they are not competing for Super Bowl this year or next year but if the Michael Penix hits, they can be contenders for the next 10 to 12 years after that
very much agree, frustrating as if he seriously played anywhere near the level he did against Oregon twice, we could have won natty comfortably. I give them some credit, but I think mainly Penix just missed open passes he normally made, we would have lost multiple times prior if he had played so poorly in many other games. Was hell of fun year though, just some unreal throws.
Falcons fans are going to love Penix once its his time to shine. He will have a similar career to Kirk and Matt Ryan so thats a good start, if he can win a Superbowl (he has the talent to do it) then he will be even more respected.. All this stuff right now is stupid because in a year or two or three from NOW, the Falcons will have an entirely different take and respect for the QB they currently have.
By two or three years from now Penix HAS To be the Falcons long term franchise answer at QB because his rookie contract will expire. Kirk/Ryan were young enough to get to their timelines by their talent when as third year starters they were getting PB considerations. By year five-six they started to hit their primes. Hell Washington franchised tagged Cousins TWICE until he finally became a free agent and got his long term deal with the Vikings.
Falcons might not have a 1st round pick in 2025 as a penalty for tampering with Cousins, so if they wanted to take their future QB with that pick, they’re just doing it a year early. One year less on a rookie contract is nothing if you think he’ll be your guy for the next 10-12 years once he gets to start. An odd pick but I see the reasoning- I just don’t think it was on anyone’s radar
I haven't seen much talk about it, but I wonder how soon the Falcons started thinking about life after Kirk after he immediately spilled the beans on tampering. I could easily see them trading Kirk after this year as long as doesn't have a terrible season.
He reminds me of a baseball pitcher who likes to whip his arm around his torso to get that extra spin rate, the release has to be perfect or you're going to miss the target. It's probably also going to result in fatigue on his joints. I would like to see him drive with his feet through his right shoulder instead of the left. It would result in a shower ball, but give him a much larger window for his release point. I hope he works it out, but I think he's a reach even before the 2nd round. That high of a pick you have to be certain that his extension will be top 5 money AND it will be a good investment. I would not bet my job on that. Also, "RPO-heavy" is the TV Babysitter of offensive schemes, it's mean to engage and occupy without teaching you anything.
very good post except for the part saying you 'need to be certain of that high a draft pick' .....uh, when has anyone ever been certain in long term, deca-variable projections of athletes??? ... such a weird wrote phrase. Upside justifies the pick, whatever "sure" ilb is out there (not) they wouldn't have half the value of Penix if hits so yeah, high reward-acceptable risk. ALWAYS risk.
As a Falcons fan....I must say I'm loving every minute of this. It is too funny to me how the Falcons of all teams drafting a QB is causing such a stir 😂 🤣. My goodness. Listen, folks, God bless yall. But all folks in the A know is.... Damn "Shaft" just landed in the Chocolate City.... with a Golden Arm!!! It's up! 😂 You all can be perplexed, dumbfounded, a taken back, confused, and lost for words all yall want. "Shaft" is in Chocolate City. Let's go!!!
Ain't nothing stupid about getting your future QB at least 2 years early. All that means is he will be ready to go when his time comes. Look at the dynamics of it, it was a strategic move.
Thinkingfootball... Have you scouted williams, Daniels, maye like you have with Penix in this video? Interested to hear where you think penix stacks up with these guys. I've heard severl nfl teams had penix as their qb 2
The problem is the Penix pick is a hedge. It doesn't really look good if he has to sit for four years and they have to extend him before they get to build without cousins.
You bring up the old question of can you teach accuracy. Most coaches say no. Nonetheless, Penix's multiple injuries are a concern since NFL is ta big step up in weight and speed. Overall, it is a tough decision.
The good should've been Texas and the bad should've been the entire Michigan game. In Penix defense as great as his oline was it couldn't block Michigan. Vs Texas however Penix oline gave him 3.5 secs per dropback compared to only 2.5 sec vs Michigan. Huge difference. Penix needs an oline, clearly.
Perfectly said. Was it dumb to sign a qb for 4 years to draft one? Yes but Penix is good and everyone is acting like they traded their first for a 7th rounder in 25 years.
It’s actually an anti-gamble. They’re talking all the risk out of the QB position in exchange for giving up all possible surplus value, at great opportunity cost.
Yk if he was only a 3 year college QB with no injuries and a high ceiling than it would make sense for him to sit n learn behind Kirk before becoming your franchise QB but drafting the OLDEST QB with 3 SEASON ENDING injuries just in college and a guy who has a higher floor than he does ceiling is an absurd risk.
yeah, why not take JJ then, who is extremely raw, but has all the tools and mentals, and just turned 21, it makes no sense. you literally have a guy who needs to sit and you're one of the few teams who could do it.
@@WillieBeamenApex See that would be the logical way to look at getting a 'developmental' QB. But the Falcons GM/staff fell in love with Penix within a short time of working him out.
The Falcons took a gamble signing Kirk with a torn Aquilles, perhaps that recovery isn't as good as they thought and went for a QB that could be starting in a year. Penix will have some time to develop and improve his mechanics, but more than 2 years could too much time sitting
Yeah its ironic since of the QB prospects who are sit worthy, I feel Penix is solid after a year (JJ I feel maybe for 2 at best years) considering the roster on the offense. There are plenty of solid bridge QBs who can do that job. But Arthur Blank probably never wanted to pay any of them with how bad he had to watch Ridder/Heinecke played last season.
What if Penix ends up being the answer prior to the expiration of Cousins massive contract? Does that allow for a massive reduction of salary cap if that happens?
Idk why ppl have a problem with the pick ,the problem was with giving cousins the inflated payday imo,..they've invested in a young qb that'll have a good offense when he's ready ....
Have to remember that these are grown men. If losing or struggling in your rookie season hurts your poor little confidence, then you were never going to be the guy anyways. The only way to adapt to the game speed is to play the game.
To Penix credit he's been healthy the past 2 years. So hopefully that's a good sign but like you said how much more can a 26 year old college player improve
I don’t think drafting Penix was the issue I think why everyone is scratching their heads is y they paid to put Cousins under center with that huge contract all to draft a qb high in the draft. I do believe Penix could be a good qb.. ya he’s older and there are wholes in his game like every rookie that comes into the NFL .. if he buys n an coaches can develop an teach he could be a star. There’s no exact science when choosing a qb most of them don’t end up being a star.
I think the gamble in a vacuum is sound especially 'investing' on a commodity in the NFL like a QB. But when you lay out the Falcons process, reaching for Kirk and the GMs/execs falling in love with Penix to reach for him, the gamble gets real sketchy. Apparently Blank didn't like watching the quality of QB play last season so he gets to love the idea that he spent big on Kirk and for a really expensive backup 'developmental' QB picked in the first round. I think Penix probably can turn to a starter sooner than McCarthy or Nix. But I'm not confident he earns his 2nd big payday from the Falcons unless its out of desperation. I'm still willing to hedge on the pick being justified if the rumors of tampering are true with how the Falcons got to sign Kirk and the penalty was not having a first pick in 2025.
I don't know why people are so surprised with this pick. I doubt even Kirk believed he was the future of the Falcons and would be lucky to last beyond the first two years (where the 100m guarantee is and can be cut in the third with almost no cap). And if he is as good as so many love to claim him to be, we are not going to see a chance to draft a solid replacement QB without giving up a ton of draft pick to move back up. The falcons went after Kirk because they have the offensive tools now (they would have been a play off team last year with a good QB) and this pick will secure the position for the future. It's not like a pass rushing DE was suddenly going to make them a super bowl favorite...
At the conclusion of bo nix video im interested to see you put out your final rankings now that your done the "Big 6" i personalyl have Caleb, drake, jayden. penix, nix mccarthy your shud be similar too
Watch the tape, this man found his targets often and willed a Washiton team that is not even ranked in the top 20 this year to the CF championship, if he plays 8-10 at a high level, he's worth the pick assuming he becomes eite.
@@REDNEF_ are you suggesting that this QB only has the highest amount of yards because he threw the most? Because that would be false. If you don't like him as a QB that's fine. I'm a Falcon fan and we have had much worse than Cousins and Penix the last few years. Let me be excited please
@@Jjonescp3 you can be excited I just don’t see why get your future star that has that many injuries and he doesn’t start right away time is not going to help I just hoped for him really that he would start right away I feel like him waiting is detrimental to his career
@@REDNEF_ you could be correct, however I’ve watched lots of football and I’m more cases than not, QBs who sit develop better. Hopefully he sits for a year or two because Kirt plays lights out. We will see
He wasn’t spooked any point of this season. I watched every game. That was the best defense in the nation to be honest. When was the last time your heard WASHINGTON win more than 7 games. That man is legit as it gets. Better than JJ McCarthy no question about it.
It's funny that everyone brings up his age, because the media has pounded this narrative. It's not like every 21-24 year old QB goes on to play for the same franchise for 10-15 years years. His age could be an advantage.
The Falcons created a problem in the locker room---we'll see how smart it is roster wise but I'm banking on "not very". They had their pick of any of the d-lineman and pass rushers (maybe even an offensive tackle which is something they definitely needed over a quarterback). I'm sure when Kirk Cousins is getting blasted off the edge and Kaleb McGary and Jacob Matthews are getting abused they'll be glad they passed up an offensive tackle! Grady Jarrett's been there since 2015--your telling me the Falcons couldn't have used Latu, Murphy, or Dallas Turner (all would have been available at #8)? If any of those 3 make any Pro Bowls or produce like the should (my money's on Murphy or Turner) than that'll just be more justification for cleaning house and firing Fontenot and Morris. This all presuming Penix doesn't get on the field---even if he DOES the Falcons are still weak and those needs were either defensive or offensive tackle...or pass rush. Kind of a luxury pick that should have been addressed later (if they wanted to take a hot at a quarterback to groom they could have got one later) when it really wasn't called for....but we'll see!
This looked so stupid in the eyes of a casual, but I feel like this could work out very well because the pieces are around him therefore making it a stupidly great pick
The only thing I dislike about the pick is the fact that the Falcons made it. They just paid Kirk Cousins a lot of money for four years. Why pay all that money for that amount of time and then draft his replacement a month later? It makes no sense from a business standpoint. The Falcons are continuing to show that they’ll never recover from 28-3.
Cousins has repeatedly put on tape how he can put up great numbers only to falter in big games. All while driving truckloads of cash to the bank. Atlanta made the right move to make sure they have a good backup QB to ride the bench and learn until it's time to pull Cousins when he shows any signs of choking.
Teams have been looking for a franchise qb for over 30 years lol, I would have drafted Penix and JJ and had them both sitting behind Cousins🤣 we'll work on defense next year lol and ya'll can tell me I made a bad decision drafting Penix and JJ but I'm not getting fired over a qb, I'm with Raheem Morris on this one not like Kirk Cousins going to win a championship coming off a torn achilles with a mediocre defense.
This is less like a gamble, more like buying a house and using your first year's mortgage exclusively on lottery tickets in hopes that you can pay the house off early
Everybody saying the Falcons should have done with Cousins what the Jets did after signing Aaron Rodgers, hope and pray he doesn’t get hurt with no backup plan on a playoff ready team. 🙄 Signing a backup QB and expecting to win is dumber than drafting Penix. Cousins is aging and coming off a serious injury that may make him less mobile. Good win now decision by the Falcons 100%
Oh but wasn’t your argument on earlier vids that teams need to take risks at qb? So that thinking only holds if you personally like that prospect or not. The industry doesn’t work that way, either you agree with the strategy of taking QBs with high draft capital or you agree with the strategy of building talent on the rest of the team first. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
I would have more faith in Penix if the Rams or Minnesota took him because those team have great coaches. I don't know if im that confident in Morris as a QB coach. They trying the Jordan Love experiment 😂.
I mean Atlantas coaching staff has guys who came from the LA org and guys who specifically coach quarterbacks like Zac Robinson, KJ Black, and Chandler Whitmer.
Fair point. But OC Zac Robinson built a hell of a resume (under McVay) when it comes to coaching QBs and the pass games. I trust he will elevate Penix way more than he can elevate Cousins. Peace, Mask.
Penix's strengths are essentially justin fields's weaknesses, Fields isnt good at throwing fast or making reads fast thats the only thing holding him back.
man idk I thank these teams up to some. I’m lookin at Packers taking Jordan Loveno he tha starter n they don’t have to pay him top 5 QB money when he is ascending to a top 5 young QB. so he’ll probably be playin at an All Pro lvl & maybe getting paid top 10 - 15 money. could be doing tha same w/ Penix becus personally I thank bro is gone be an elite passer.
Penix has talent but ATL picking him was a terrible choice! Extremely unfair to Penix as he most likely will have to wait 2-3 years before he even steps in as a starter. You also create tension in the QB room. Falcons would’ve been better off taking Odunze.
@@davidwillis8623 fair enough. I feel he looks like Steve Young or Mark brunell in that regard but I digress. I hope Penix has Favres durability cuz then we're looking at a long career.
Ding ding ding. If you have to bet that the 4th QB taken in the draft is going to be a top 10 player at the position in a few years....the pick doesn't make sense. If he is not better than Cousins by the start of his 3rd season, the pick was wasted. Cousins is a top 10 QB and has the stats to prove it
TBF even if Penix ends up at best a bridge QB and the Falcons flexes his 5th year option just to buy time to get his replacement in the draft the pick still worked out for the context of value. The problem is paying Cousins so much in the short term. When the Falcons can get (somewhat) similar results with a few of the other bridge QB options in the market who are cheaper and use that money to be aggressive in FA. Penix would still be a sound pick at 8th even as a reach (and necessity) and he essentially sits a year until he gets full reigns of the offense in 2025.
@@t4d0W you're a goddamned fool if you think the a bridge QB would be good value at pick 8. You can trade for a bridge QB like Gardner Minshew for a 3rd round pick at any time you want