The best timeline, Korea and Vietnam could united under south rule, Soviet Union colapse earlier, no COVID-19 and communist would be destroyed for ever.
This anti commie thing is messed up, south Vietnam was broken and bad. And south Korea was worse than the north before many reforms. So it will have many bad effects to many countries
Myanmar isn't a Muslim country. It's Buddhist. Anyway, another effect of China not being communist is that ethnic Chinese communities in southeast Asians countries like Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand would not be assimilated with the local population. Instead, they would have retained their distinct cultural identity, as is the case in Malaysia and Singapore. This is because governments would have no reason to ban Chinese schools and Chinese newspapers under the excuse of eradicating communism.
If North China is locked with the USSR, then Mao would be forced out of power in the mid 50s during Kruschev's Soviet leadership. With assured Soviet assistnace and a more moderate leadership, North China would gradually grow starting from the mid 50s and events like the Great Leap Forward or the Cultural Revolution would probably not happen. I think you made a bit too much generalizations.
I don't see the US and China being anything like near-peer competitors in this timeline, really. Assuming China reaches both a similar population (The CCPs early natalist campaigns and the one child policy should about cancel each other out in that regard) and reaches a similar GDP per Capita as South Korea at least, you're looking at a 50 trillion dollar economy, about as big as Europe and the US combined, and probably still growing faster. The US would likely become more and more of a junior partner over the course of the 21st century, with China restoring the historical status quo of it being the undisputed heart of the global economy.
I actually think this would more or less happen with a couple bumps in the road. First is that Europe and the US aren't just gonna sit idly by and allow China to eclipse them and economically dominate the world so they'll likely tariff them and other regulations. The US is already starting to do this with China and even the EU and despite what I said in my other comment but getting wealthier earlier would probably destroy the birth rate more than the horrible butchering the CCP did so the population may not be as large as it is today.
The US wouldn't let that happen in the first place. Japan was their ally, they had military bases there, and they still basically castrated it when it started to catch up to its economy. The same would happen with KMT China in an alternate history.
Your videos are badass man. Perfect blend of trying to keep things realistic but still entertaining. Keep doing what you're doing, God bless you and your ancestors 🙌🙌
Loved this vid. I'm half Taiwanese half American and so I've given this scenario a lot of thought. theres a couple of things I'd like to add that I slightly disagree on. I think this China would democratize basically identically to the way Taiwan did OTL with Chiang Kai Shek's son paving the way since the motivations for him doing so would be pretty much the same. I also don't think the repressions would be quite as bad and last quite as long as they did OTL since in your timeline they effectively won so the shock of losing the mainland isn't there. But by far the largest changes imo come from 2 things. The first is that all of China and its hundreds of millions of people are open to global trade, investors, and capitalism in the 50s rather than the 80s. This is a big deal because while it means China begins growing earlier and would undoubtably have a much higher GDP per capita than today that growth would compete internationally with not only with Japan and Korea which are starting from similar points with comparable resources and people. China would also be competing with the US and even Europe. Global GDP would be much higher but the average level of growth for Korea Japan and maybe to some extent the US and Europe would be lower given the increased competition. This would create a lot of friction in Europe and the US against China in the populace. personally I could see either the democrats or republicans adopt a more anti China stance but ultimately as long as China doesn't go non aligned which the Chiang government likely wouldn't I find it hard to believe the US would forego the greatest ally they could have against the Soviets. The second biggest change is the fact Mao isn't in charge of China and in this alternate 2022 there might be closer to 2 billion people in China rather than 1.4 billion this makes the points I mentioned for earlier capitalism even more impactful, but also that many more Chinese would be allowed to emigrate out of China meaning much larger Chinese populations in other countries such as the US which would have numerous knock on effects even after that immigration slows. Finally some nitpicks are that I could see the other two autonomous zones except for the Uigher one in the Republic of China because that area is basically just an entirely empty desert. Also I'm curious why you think Chiang and fhe KMT wouldn't invade Vietnam and prop up the South Vietnamese. I imagine that most of Asia would be under Chinese influence rather than American with the exception of Japan which is somewhat split. Sorry that was a lot but I think about this topic a lot so I'm curious what you think.
I also have issue with the US helping China develop nukes? They didn't help France or Israel develop nukes. They didn't even help the UK who were instrumental to the Manhattan Project.
The US and Europe wouldnt start investing in the 50s but in the 70s. The reason companies started looking for new markets is because western markets got saturated, that wouldn’t really change in this timeline. China would still have to wait around 25 years or so to start industrialising.
@@francogiobbimontesanti3826even supposing you're right they at least wouldn't get drastically poorer like they did during that period and would be able to invest in infrastructure previous to that foreign investment flowing in. also they likely wouldn't snowball and explode before foreign investment but they'd be able to do internal investments to meet the demands of their gigantic internal market that'd be even larger here.
Considering how vast China is with different cultures, regions, and religions a true Republic with democratic votes for each region. That seem more realistic.
Actually very wrong. A long and early history of unification shaped the identity very strong. Also, China is a secular society, for most part of history religion is really not that important. The cultures? more like the difference between California and New England. China is as homogeneous as France or Germany, more so than the likes of Italy, UK. The only more homogeneous countries are like Japan, Korea and Greece. China does have a long history of affirmative action-like policies to balance the regions and keeps minorities integrated and happy. So that would be kind of unnecessary. Basically, China is like the United States, freezing immigration right now and force interracial marriage, abandon Christianity as main stream religion, stay for 200 years. Everyone is light skin but not snow white, mostly Christian but don't really care. all speak English and identify as American, not German/Irish/Scottish.
I highly doubt a KMT led China would be any less willing to retake Xinjiang and all of Mongolia. In fact those 2 areas would have been controlled by Hui and Han war lords with increasing Soviet influence. The US likely would've also supported China retaking those places to stop the spread of communism and further Soviet expansion into Central Asia in the same way it supported the Afghans in its war against the Soviets. Remember the core tenant of the KMT even today in Taiwan is Chinese Nationalism, which means preserving Chinese culture, language, traditions and land even more staunchly then the communist who had to make concessions to the Soviets for assistance. Same goes for all other border conflicts like S. China Sea, Vietnam, India etc. etc, it would go to war with smaller country more willingly because the US would be an ally and trade partner and not be willing to sanction China as punishment.
@@wildviper well the ROC invaded Xinjiang and Mongolia multiple times during the 30-40s...USSR never actually controlled Xinjiang they were trying to find proxies during the warlord period and WW2. There is no way Xinjiang would have been allowed to break away in the first place
@@dsong2006I mean KMT china would likely retake xinjiang but I highly doubt they would attempt to retake Mongolia, considering they were a direct Soviet vassal state
@@wildvipersame goes to Soviets if this timeline KMT China develop Nukes too, Xinjiang and Manchuria one way another will be reconquered by KMT it will take long but it will be achieve once KMT China develop its industry & economy on par of today china actually they can achieve it early on under KMT if they manage to end the Chaotic situation under there Control Territory. in the case of Mongolia KMT is actually willing let it go they actually recognise the Mongolian Independence but because of what happen in the end civil war in late 40s ie: Soviet Recognition of Chinese Goverment KMT felt betrayed so decided to reclaim Mongolia too. the case of 2 koreas the civil war may still be happen but the KMT will still side with the South but because Manchuria is still in the hand of Chinese Communist they will be limited support till Americans involved in the conflict thats when i think the KMT will reconquered Manchuria from Chinese Communist it will forced Soviet to stay neutral or act but the Soviets will be in hard position who will they save NK or Communist held Manchuria because they were in No position to Fight the Entire UN Forces with Million of Chine KMT Troops + America has Nukes so Soviet cannot threaten the others , in the case of Vietnam i highly doubt that Communism will take root in North Vietnam KMT China will block any support to Vietminh yes they will still support Vietnamese aspiration to become free from French but the KMT will not allow Communist to take over in the North of Vietnam so its highly likely in that timeline there will be no Vietnam War too happen.
If China were to end up like this then, the whole SCS/WPS dispute will over time be resolved. East and Southeast Asia would form a trade with China as the center hub, kinda like EU today. Without the communists meddling, the economy would spur around the 80's and would surpass USA in late 90's while retaining very close relations with them. East and Southeast Asia would be more prosperous in this timeline, especially SEA who would be under China's sphere of influence and would heavily rely on China when it comes to trade.
I think the idea that if the KMT were to control most of China, it would just be Taiwan but bigger seems naive at best. I think it’s still possible that China liberalizes along the same timeline as ours, but I doubt having the KMT handle all of China would be as easy or simple as Taiwan. I think most realistically, under democratic rule, the ROC/China copies maybe the U.S. federal system and has a few larger states, or maybe a looser association like a confederation, or maybe like the EU. But I kind of doubt Uighurstan would be allowed to be an independent country and that Tibet would be an autonomous zone. Both the Uighurs and Tibetans have strong senses of culture and a nation that would threaten the unity of one government over China.
This is why I totally believe if China, Mongolia, Taiwan, Two Koreas, and Japan all must join and unify all together as a new nation East Asian Japanorea Empire. This new unified nation must have Japan's or South Korea's fullest possible democracy giving China and North Korea the best possible freedom they both deserve.
I'm very impressed, this scenario was inspired by real life events but things generally turn out for the better. Buuuut I feel there should probably be a few black swan events occur. This scenario was just too neat. The Soviets would have pushed elsewhere (Iran, Afghanistan) with China and the US then bolstering Pakistan, leading to an outright communist India as well... and bam, there goes the whole neighborhood. I'm not talking WW3, but a brutal Iran war could damage US reputation as much as the Vietnam war did in OTL.
nice video. But idt Chiang would be ok with communists attempting to take over all of Vietnam. USA wouldn't intervene but China would. With Chinese troops launching a land invasion of the north and propping up the south Vietnamese government. North Vietnam would likely lose the war and be brought under capitalism or at the least , south Vietnam would remain independent. I also don't think East Turkestan would be independent.
Taiwan will never last remember Taiwan only survive this long because of Protection from America but if Taiwan is Communist and the Mainland is under of KMT America will Help KMT to Conquer Taiwan and heck the Location is not advantageous to Communist Taiwan American forces have base in Okinawa aswell in the Phillippines , Pacific Ocean is American Lake they totally fuck up in any other way .
@@wildviper True, but the USSR already has a million reasons to not get into a conflict with China. Nukes make them more powerful than the US or USSR would like.
@@concept5631 Perhaps, but in real life the US helped Britain and France get the bomb. In any case, the ROC would develop it around the same time as the PRC I bet
If China wasnt communist, it would be a lot smaller, a lot poorer. Think serbia vs yugoslavia. Tibet (U Tsang, Kham, Ando) would be independent and hostile. Mongol republic would include inner mongolia. Xinjiang and Gansu would be an Islamic Caliphate.
