The Real Reasons the San Diego Padres Collapsed 

Imagine how bad it would have been without Ha Seong Kim's season???

When your veteran leader is Manny "I'm never gonna hustle" Machado and the face of your franchise is Ringworm Tatis, I would say your team has a serious lack of character.

As a life long Padres fan where the organization had arguably the best hitter in baseball history, Tony Gwynn for his entire MLB career (RIP Mr. Padre), you think they'd learn from that.

Their run differential is +64, yet they are 9 games under .500. (66-75). They are 6-22 in one-run games. They are 0-11 in extra inning games.

Ha Seong Kim not being mentioned because he’s the best player on this team not named Blake Snell 😎

Its called chemistry. The Padres have a bunch of stars where you look at the back of their cards, but they don't mesh well together.

Interesting how you missed how well Ha Sung Kim has played

The '22 Padres, the team that won 89 games and went on to make the NLCS, had a run differential of +45. The '23 Padres, who are on track to lose ~89 games, have a run differential as of writing of +58. They're the only team in baseball with a positive run differential and a losing record, and their run differential is better than several playoff-bound teams including the Twins and Brewers. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s expected batting average is .026 higher than his actual batting average, and according to the difference between a player's weighted on-base average (wOBA) and expected wOBA (xwOBA), Tatis is the fourth unluckiest hitter in baseball, with an xwOBA of .380, 15th best in baseball, and an actual wOBA of .339, with is 95th in MLB. Trent Grisham and Juan Soto have also been a bit hurt by their difference between expected and actual wOBA, and Ha-Seong Kim, the team's leader in bWAR and fWAR, actually has surpassed his expected wOBA by a fair distance. If you're interested, the unluckiest hitter in baseball in 2023 is another junior - it's Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has an xwOBA of .379 and a wOBA of .332. So maybe we're just overthinking this and the Padres have been really unlucky, and they shouldn't dismantle the core or make massive changes based on a wash of a season. The other underachieving teams in the NL, specifically the Mets and the Cardinals (sigh), have negative run differentials and clearly both teams had major flaws that we were all willing to overlook, but I just don't see that with the Padres. I also think of the three teams mentioned the Padres have the best manager of the three by a mile - I'm a Cards fan and I would take Bob Melvin over Oli Marmol in a heartbeat. If you think you need some new dynamics in your clubhouse and some role players who are more likely to get you base hits when you need them then that's fine, but the core of the team is still one that's worth being excited about moving forward. The bullpen asides from Hader has been an issue, but the performance of a bullpen is quite changeable from year to year and sometimes things that weren't working previously just start to click. I don't feel qualified to discuss the organisational approach of the Padres because I haven't watched them enough (I'm in the UK so it's hard to follow the west coast teams for time difference reasons), so maybe there is something here that I'm missing, but like I said, it is possible that we're just overthinking this.

Best example, look at the Atlanta Braves. Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson both have 35+ home runs. The rest of the team can all hit for power other other than 1 or 2 guys, but for the most part - they do their job by getting on base. All teams hit solo shots. But its amazing how many 2 or 3 run homers the Braves hit. When its 2 strikes or 2 outs, they try to get on base and put pressure on the opposing defense to make plays.

The real source of their lack of success is the “that’s what’s in” rap they made last year after they beat the Dodgers. They haven’t been right since then

Padres season went to SHIT when they showed the Crying Kershaw face on the big home tv screen

This was a well done vid def investing in this channel

For me its a few things - over hyping this team from the start without playing one game together. - not sure BM can handle these egos - no true leadership - injuries - players literally saying "we give up" - not moving players at the trade deadline - need to rebuild the farm system But the biggest issue is the underpormance of the "Big 4" and idk if soto is worth $500M+. Pitching will be an issue since Snell and Hader are gone. Lets see what 2024 brings

Sum it up with 3 words. “All selfish players”

Loved the video and how you carefully backed your points with stats, keep it up!

Nice video, definitely encapsulated what I've been watching all season

This was a great, well put together video,

You can’t buy success. 💸

It seems to me like these dudes are selfish. Why try to play small ball and try to get a runner home when you can try to get another HR for your record? It seems to be an ego thing and a comple lack of chemistry

Padres sure score a lot of insurance runs or runs when they arent necessary but when they are down by a couple of runs or tied up, they fail to come through

Don't give Preller your checkbook. He's done this before when he first came on the scene with that 2015 team. ESPN, etc were all over the tram. Look how it turned out. They need better scouts and to not worry about having names on your team.

Very intelligent analysis. Subscribed!

Great analysis and commentary. It's content like this that justifies my Premium subscription. Subscribed and set to auto download.

watching this as a yankees fan, the similarities between these two teams are insane. yanks highest BA is probably Judge at around .260-.270 and the padres keep getting old yankees who were a part of the problem for us (Sanchez, Carpenter, Odor) I would guess its an organizational/coaching philosophy thing. between both of these teams, there are so many stars who are underperforming

Great analysis, I appreciated this. Really informative for serious baseball fans. I look at this way, also. Many players on the roaster just weren't able to play what they are capable of. This includes Darvish, Musgrove, Bogaerts, Machado, Cronenworth, Hill, Tatis, name a few. If Snell, Wacha, and Kim didn't come up with what they did, this team would be close to 90-95 losses team, instead of 82-80...

Really good video. Just a little thing though, is I totally get wanting more screen and getting rid of the broadcast graphics, but it seems that seeing half of the animations and cutoffs of scorecards is worse than seeing it. It’s probably better to leave the crop to the original

The main stat I look at in a player is batting average. To me, it is the most important thing.

As a life long Padres fan used to getting pumped up and then disappointed every. single. year… “Huh. First time?”

Think you're right nyc2621, from just watching this video, seems like they just need to develop more chemistry, don't think they look too terrible. They did beat the Dodgers, 11-2 last week. They do have Blake Snell, he looks pretty good. After all the Padres do have that Pacific Coast league history, think Ted Williams, probably one of the greatest hitters ever. He gave up 4 years of his career to fight in WW2. Also, Mr. Padre, Tony Gwynn. Absolute class he was.

Build a team, not a collection of players.

I’m a Yanks fan that has lived in SD for 6+ yrs. SD is my favorite NL team. This year I was hoping for another NYY/SD WS showdown…

How come you were acting like Ha-seong Kim isnt in this team? Didnt bring him up along with the others about offense

Dope assessment

A bunch of hotdogs is not called a team. As a lifelong dodger fan we do feel bad for our little brothers

I think what speaks to their failed approach presents itself in Jake Cronenworth. As you mentioned FB% is up and the BA is down. His numbers and even K% fall off a cliff compared to his first two years. Had a player like him continued his old approach, he would be helping spark the offense with much needed base hits. He was hitting great BEFORE the shift ban too!

I've seen some people comment on the team chemistry and I 100% agree. Having half the team leave for the WBC didn't help either. Trent is a gold glover but his bat is trash. I think in the off-season resigning Snell trading Trent and signing a couple solid bats another starter and some bullpen help will go far but I'm no GM just a rough neck who grew up watching the Padres.

There is also the enormous amount of stress and anxiety caused by wearing those hideous city connect uniforms

They need to stop growing their egos, and play for the front of the jersey, and not the back. They get to prideful with every home run that they hit, and its all they try to do. Every home run they try to make an mlb the show cover, just run straight out of the box, think about your team, not your own stats. Tatis Jr said in an interview when asked about the stats he follows the most and he responds with "I only follow the amount of dingers I hit, that's all I care about to follow." That says a lot. They need the comradery and chemistry, you can still stay loose and have fun, but when your two main guys, chado and tatis are seen arguing and fighting in the clubhouse many times, and they call themselves "leaders" thats a problem.

I think AJ Preller needs to go. Since he was hired we've only had one winning season (not counting 2020). I'll give him credit for some signings, like managing to get Manny Machado and the Juan Soto trade, but he's made some awful deals too. We gave up prospects like Trea Turner, Max Fried, Emmanuel Clase, Andres Munoz and Ty France for guys who had mediocre play (except Wil Myers. We like him). I feel like Preller went for the flashy big name in the 2022-23 offseason, trying to get Aaron Judge or Trea Turner (eventually getting Bogaerts), and even though I like him we didn't need him. Ha-Seong Kim is amazing, whether it's 2B, 3B, or SS. But we should've kept Kim at SS, kept Cronenworth at 2B and find a guy for 1B (I do not remember the 1B/DH market that season though, but Drury would've been solid). Kim needs an extension, but the money is tied up with Soto's possible future extension, Xander's salary and Cronenworth's contract. By the way, Cronenworth did not deserve that long-term deal, he's a good player but I feel like he should not have been the priority for an extension. Sorry for my huge word wall of a rant, but in conclusion, AJ Preller should be fired.

Having a top 5 offense and top 5 pitching staff (in the NL) while being bottom 5 in the standings only means one thing. The coaching staff is the problem.

Great point. In fact, there’s no reason to look beyond the fact every batter swings for the parking lot in that lineup. Even Wil Myers! Too many gold chains w spinning hubcaps on em in that dugout. 😖🤦‍♂️

Someone get the general manager for the Padres on the phone , this guy has it all figured out. Just hit more hits , so smart.

Batting average is way more reliable than you think. That’s why the great hitters have consistently high batting averages

Good take. That team should be in the playoffs from talent alone.

This is gonna be a weird comment but the padres have the second best sponsor jersey, the Motorola logo really dosent take away from the look of any of their jerseys, and the placement is really good as well

Their bullpen in the past has been a key to whatever success they've had. This year, the bullpen seemed to be inconsistent. It didn't help that Suarez was out most of the year. Also, the Padres have had very little success in coming back from deficits in the late innings. That would be an interesting stat to look at if anyone knows it.

Go Dodgers

Jim Leyland once said Any manager knows when to pull a pitcher or throw down a bunt but it's really about getting all these big egos in the locker room to work together as a team.

batting average does not score runs. Look at their slugging

Even though I'm a Dutchman, I think Bogaerts is kind of dragging them down as well. His hands just aren't that quick on SS and he hits into a double play just as often as he botches a DP defensively. Because his OBP is acceptable, maybe move him down (or up?) in the batting order? Just my two cents.

Subscribed at 4:55 hahaha

What happened. They’re a San Diego team that’s what. Best part is their fans got suckered into thinking it’s once again “Their Year.”

This is a video that the players and management as well as the coaches could use. Why aren’t we tagging the padres? Share this to them

You seem to have a misunderstanding about why batting average isn't considered that useful anymore. You said it's because there are factors outside of the hitter's control that can determine if they get a hit or not. While true, this isn't why batting average isn't considered useful. The actual reason is because batting average is very limited in what information it tells you. Getting on base is the most important thing when you're batting, but average tells an incomplete story of how often someone gets on base. That's why OBP is sort of a more useful version of batting average. In addition, it's also not super useful because it doesn't tell you the results of the hits. A player with a .330 average and 6 homers is gonna be less valuable than a .280 average and 50 homers. So in conclusion, average isn't useful because it doesn't tell how often someone gets on base nor how much damage they do with each hit.

What was the common denominator in this season and 2021 that was different last year?

Maybe if they spread em in the lineup? Maybe too many stars batting back to back puts alot of pressure on em.

The Padres have given up the least runs so Pitching and Defense are solid. 6-22 in one run games and 0-11 in extra innings is the problem a good team should be a little above .500 there so no knowing what the scores in extra's are 8-11 more wins in those situations with some "normal" results would put them closer to where they should be. As I said below this kind of record indicates poor relief poor luck or bad situational managing. Thats where I would make the focus on improvements

You forgot the Kershaw curse! After they made fun of a guaranteed 1st ballot hall of famer that is Clayton Kershaw, they began losing. They need to be humble.

Padres have been below in most season in the last 10 years. Very few teams can go from 25 games out at the end of season to 20 games above 500 without major changes. Padres have way too many long terms deal, which stop them from really changing anything.

Great analysis. Melvin hasn't been good in close games, last year he was lucky even though he lost plenty of give-me games and pads almost missed the playoffs. This year his luck ran out. 0-11 in extra innings, horrible in 1 run games, I know the timely hitting sucks, but there are other ways to manuafacture runs and you have to point the finger at coaching with those numbers. There have been a handful of give-me games this year that he no brain blew also, pulling starters too early hoping his terrible bullpen would work out, and not stealing or squeezing a run in. 4 or 5 of those no brain loses are why the pads aren't in wild card hunt. One last gripe is with the umps, but I'm sure all teams deal with it. Really bad 3rd strike or non 3rd strike calls in key situations (I think each team should have 2 reviewable strikes per game), and calls that didn't go pads way, even after it was obvious in review, really strange.

It’s crazy how they didn’t learn from the Yankees and how well they ran on just the long ball

NOT SELLING AT THE TRADE DEADLINE WAS BRILLIANT And maybe the team that 20 games ahead in 1st is the actual problem. You beat one short series but the Dodgers have beat you up and took your lunch all season. Hey! Don’t fire your GM and manager! That’s only what a smart team would do. Stupid to move Tatis from SS.

What other team poses for Polaroids after each ball is launched in a single home run, all bases empty? Star-struck maybe? Fill the bases before you homer!!!

Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, Jr. are two of the biggest prima Donna's in the game today. They are about the money and could care less about the team. As long as they get theirs that's all that matters. Most of the Dominican players are that way.

We need to start the Gwynn cloning process ASAP

Like i always have said,,they are not looking at the ball ,they all are looking at the wall..like a homerun derby .

Bro where is ha seong Kim and cronenworth

Attention Padre fans Have your players and organization settle the F down, Stop the showboating Act like you’ve won before, Hit a home run run the bases and get your ass in the dugout Humility and respect for your opponent is what a true champion exhibits but instead you want a child (Machado) that leads no one to be your representative

It was the parade man

The team was "loaded with superstar talent" last season when they lost the division by 22 games. Will never understand the high expectations they were given before 2023? Was is seriously just them catching the Dodgers sleeping in a five game series last year?

It’s funny how no one trashed them nearly as bad as if the dodgers had a “super team” or the highest payroll. Goes to show people only hate dodgers because of their greatness

A lineup of clean up hitters but no table setters

I'm an SF Giants fan. Giants fans are not happy at all about the team's progression, how poorly they're doing on both sides of the ball, how badly free agent signings have worked. The only comfort we really have is "well, at least the team hasn't gone for it and spent a lot of money that hasn't worked out." The giants might suck this year, but at least they haven't broken the bank, and won't be paying for it for years to come. As annoyed as giants fans might be, I would imagine padres fans to be doubly angry. This is a team that really has gone for broke, and they're aiming for fourth place finish (if the Giants can't beat them there, haha). That sucks

Lack of chemistry and massive egos. Selfish ball players at every position.

Some good thoughts in this video but I disagree with substantial parts. First, I'm in the camp that believes that batting average is a nice statistic but it's not necessarily a winning statistic unless you can hit like Tony Gwynn. No, OBA is the real winning statistic because the point isn't that you get a walk that's not as productive as a hit but that you've avoided being an out. It's simple... If the pitcher pitches in the strike zone, then make hard contact. If the pitcher won't pitch in the strike zone, don't chase after the pitch but just take the walk and pass it on to the next guy. On a star studded roster like the Padres, there will be plenty of opportunities for someone to get a single or extra base hit. But every player has to have faith that they don't have to win the game themselves but that the next guy can do it if given the opportunity. So, just don't make an out. It's that simple. Get on base and pass the baton to the next guy. Swing hard and attack a pitch in the strike zone but don't try to hit a 3 run homer with the bases empty. I'm not too worried about the Padres hitting recently, they've been doing what I describe the last 5+ games and gotten results... Only Wainright held the Padres to a single run on over 9 hits and walks over something like 7(?) innings pitched but that's Wainright and when he left, the Padres got to the relievers that followed. Over those games of Padres emphasizing OBA, the Padres have scored over 5 runs nearly every game. The only games the Padres lost were those the Padres pitching imploded but the Padres scored plenty of runs and consistently which is important. It does the Padres no good to score double figures one night followed by a single runner the next night. Even free-swinging Manny is getting in the act... One of thes recent games the Padres won he didn't get a hit but was 0-1 with 3 walks. That's an OBA and you could say that Manny almost singlehandedly drove the pitch count for that pitcher up, forcing his exit from the game so the team could get to the relievers. That's winning baseball. If the Padres keep hitting and walking like this, it could get interesting the last few games of the season. Until the Padres are mathematically eliminated, there's always a chance. As for Padres pitching, the bullpen hasn't performed this year and starting pitching hasn't been blameless. Darvish and Musgrove haven't contributed or performed as much as expected. Don't know if injuries played a part more than the obvious. The Padres opened the season with a lot of pitching question marks but Lugo and Wacha have permormed to or possibly even exceeded expectations but you're going to have problems if only half or less of the starting rotation isn't performing to expectations. IMO relief is one of the relative few Preller blind spots but everyone has a different opinion how to build relief. Preller seems to look for talent and unfulfilled promise, hoping to hit a home run by finding players like Robert Suarez out of the Mexican league. But there were a lot of misses this year. I think back to how Kevin Towers built his relief year after year "from the scrap heap." He had an eye for finging gems in the rough that other teams discarded. Lastly, I think this video is wrong to criticize Padres pitchers pitching out of the strike zone. Yes, you risk giving up walks but unless the pitcher has unhittable stuff, deception has to be part of the repertoire and that means making a pitch look hittable but actually isn't... And that means pitching out of the strike zone.

Padres should hire Frank Menechino "Mr. 300" as their next hitting coach

Does the Padres bullpen fill with 11 Atlee Hamakers?

It’s called depth that the preller forget to build like he’s had time to fixed the hitting during his 9 years and he still didn’t do it

Exactly, the Padres don’t play elementary baseball, it’s more like they’re all getting ready for the next homerun fest. Also, being the bored to be winners to be before spring training even started, absolutely doesn’t do anything, when a team doesn’t play the game as it is supposed to be played.

Don’t you think that there is also a clubhouse problem? Too many egos, very little brotherhood, and bad management. This would also negatively affect performance.

So close!

It might also have something to do with the Baseball Gods taking one look at the city connects made even worse by the all yellow catcher's gear (1:30) and saying, "Nope, we can't have that look on a World Champ." 🤣

SOME GUY ON TWITTER CURSED THEM LOL

Melvin! I still cannot believe how they kept him after that last Phillies game in the postseason. They need Dave Martinez!

You forgot the most important factor, the SD Curse! 😂

Agree to most of your argument, however I think the main problem is the bull and bib Melvin.

You cant buy championships anymore. Team chemistry is key! Go Phillies!

Nick Schwarber and the Phillies have entered the chat…

Better hitting coach, this is a situational hitting problem.

I've been a fan for 25 years. Watched every game the last two seasons. This guy obviously hasn't. When I hear "hader is a high walk guy, will be a free agent, and perhaps the padres will look to replace him" I literally laughed this guy's "analysis" off. "Steven Hill has been a high walk guy the last two seaons." Funny. Maybe he has, but Wilson has been dominant the last two years, with the exception of coming back after his injury this year. The entire pitching staff has done their job...bullpens are going to have tough stretches durimg a 162 game season, which the padres did. But overall, the pitching has been plenty good enough to win. The ONLY reason the padres are where they are is because they have been dismal in high leverage situations, i.e. hitting with RISP. Dude was like their WRC+ has been above average." The correct statement is "their WRC+ (especially their top 4) has been fine when their is a runner on first or no one on at all. With the exception of HSK, their numbers drop to obsurd levels when their are runners on 2nd or or 3rd base. The big 4, and the entire team have historically anti-clutch. Padres have been 1 or 2 high leverage hits away from winning 30 more games. They suck because they can't hit under pressure. Read the following (you don't have to pay): letters2aj.substack.com/p/fatally-flawed

Everyone trying to hit home run some got 10 years contracts no problem that is why

Bro Forgot about Ha Seong Kim

This offseason will be the key to see who they extend (Kim or Soto or both) and trade as they cannot keep the current roster....

Shows u what chemistry does to a team. No chemistry

But these are only the on field "real reasons" - the off the field stuff is conjecture, sure but is worth noting. By many accounts the clubhouse is a disaster - primadonna egos, no chemistry and guys who are just going for individual stats. Stacked with great players sure, but I wouldn't want any of them on my team. Look at the Dodgers offense, some huge names and then the rest are spare part reclamation project guys who are humble, hungry and are having fun. And guess what? it's working.

There was no "collapse." That would imply that they were ever together at some point. Sure you could point out some roster deficiencies but this team just couldn't perform when the pressure was on. They were too bad in 1 run games and extra inning games. If they were just average in close games they're a playoff team. The problems with this team were mostly psychological. They got too many pats on the back before they ever did anything.

it really is on machado in my opinion

Yall need to ditch Preller man… who thought four sluggers with no average guys in front of them would have been a good thing?

The only chance that the padres had to make it to the World Series, and they absolutely blew it. As a padres fan, the team I hate the most behind the dodgers are the padres.

"The Padres are at least average to good...but they also collapsed..." Nani?